Forum Top Prospects 1-10

[Grant77]

did not send a list, mate

 

You contacted me asking if you could participate then.

[Laika]

I'm not certain that we're in the bottom 10, but can't say for sure without seeing other lists. White Sox, Angels and Padres are much worse. I'd tentatively throw out the Giants, Orioles, Mariners, Marlins, maybe the Royals. I'm sure I missed a couple. If you count Pompey it's probably middle of the pack.

 

Padres aren't necessarily worse

[Grant77]

I actually think they are probably not reducing injury risk. I mean, Sanchez' stiff lower half is not helping him at all in that regard and his timing is bad.

 

Nothing about this seems natural... it's almost like he jumps up in the air and lands on his front leg. I wonder if he could throw even harder with more efficient mechanics.

 

 

Injury risk is such a nebulous concept, but it seems to me that he's got almost the perfect delivery in terms of keeping him healthy. I may be completely wrong, it's just what I see.

[Cyborg]

How is Sean Reid Foley ahead of Connor Greene when he hasn't proved he can throw strikes? Greenes at a higher level and they're about the same age.

Strikeouts.

[TheHurl]

Admittedly, I haven't followed prospects that close the last year or two, but I can't imagine too many teams with a worse farm than that.

 

out of all the Farms listed by BA so far. I'd have someone 5th or worse as our number 2 prospect...with the exception of San Fran (they have the worst farm IMO), Philly (which is just sad considering where they are), Miami (who is pretty similar to the Jays), and Milwaukee (who I like their top 3 better than ours).

[Dr. Dinger]

These things are just snapshots. The farm looks dreadful beyond Alford, but we still have a group of talented young players with 5-6 years of control who recently graduated. Pompey would be a consensus Top 2 on this list, and Osuna has never faced an MLB hitter younger than him. There is an intriguing core in place beyond our mid-late prime vets.

 

Alford really looks like he can be an impact top of the order hitter and CF.

[KingKat]

 

Alford really looks like he can be an impact top of the order hitter and CF.

 

He still has a lot of question marks. I don't find him terribly inspiring as a #1 prospect (though I don't disagree that he is the top guy).

[Spanky99]

Here's your final list. Thanks to everyone involved. Hopefully the results prove accurate and promote a lot of discussion.

 

1. Anthony Alford (unanimous #1)

2. Sean Reid-Foley

3. Conner Greene

4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

5. Rowdy Tellez

6. Jon Harris

7. Max Pentecost

8. Richard Urena

9. Clinton Hollon

10. Justin Maese

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eC9-YmsG4RXbQcwWCf-8Vv6EopIWHaYKyMm6zjuMYKc/edit?usp=sharing

 

Stole this from Ang...

 

Baseball America: Jays top-10

 

TOP 10 PROSPECTS

1. Anthony Alford, of

2. Conner Greene, rhp

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., of/3b

4. Richard Urena, ss

5. Sean Reid-Foley, rhp

6. Jon Harris, rhp

7. Rowdy Tellez, 1b

8. Max Pentecost, c

9. Justin Maese, rhp

10. D.J. Davis, of

[z3r0s]

lol at DJ Davis at 10. I think you call that lazy prospect evaluation (was a top pick, probably should be in there).

[KingKat]

lol at DJ Davis at 10. I think you call that lazy prospect evaluation (was a top pick, probably should be in there).

 

BA's bias for top picks is a long running thing.

[Dr. Dinger]

He still has a lot of question marks. I don't find him terribly inspiring as a #1 prospect (though I don't disagree that he is the top guy).

 

Your lack of enthusiasm is probably warranted given how little power he's shown and the fact that he really only hit this year. Still, his plate discipline is very impressive and he's ultra-athletic, so you can probably project a bit more power at maturity.

[TheHurl]

The BA list is out

 

TOP 10 PROSPECTS

1. Anthony Alford, of

2. Conner Greene, rhp

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., of/3b

4. Richard Urena, ss

5. Sean Reid-Foley, rhp

6. Jon Harris, rhp

7. Rowdy Tellez, 1b

8. Max Pentecost, c

9. Justin Maese, rhp

10. D.J. Davis, of

[Grant77]

The BA list is out

 

TOP 10 PROSPECTS

1. Anthony Alford, of

2. Conner Greene, rhp

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., of/3b

4. Richard Urena, ss

5. Sean Reid-Foley, rhp

6. Jon Harris, rhp

7. Rowdy Tellez, 1b

8. Max Pentecost, c

9. Justin Maese, rhp

10. D.J. Davis, of

 

Urena ahead of SRF surprises me a bit, but the rest is pretty much in line with what I expected.

[Dr. Dinger]

Urena ahead of SRF surprises me a bit, but the rest is pretty much in line with what I expected.

 

I don't think SRF really gets much attention outside of the Jays community. A full season of 6 BB/9 is pretty boner-killing.

[nmrch]

No one from Wisconsin makes the bigs. Catchers from Wisconsin with no knees don't make AAA.

 

 

lol and yet you have Pentecost ranked very high who was horrible in a short sample size and has just as many injury concerns. I'm sorry but some of these lists are bad and you guys are the self professed prospect experts. Dan Jansen puts up awesome K to BB ratios and displays decent power when he's healthy, he has more potential than pretty much anyone not named Alford, i would have him around #4 behind SRF and Greene, the latter for his high floor.

[Grant77]

lol and yet you have Pentecost ranked very high who was horrible in a short sample size and has just as many injury concerns. I'm sorry but some of these lists are bad and you guys are the self professed prospect experts. Dan Jansen puts up awesome K to BB ratios and displays decent power when he's healthy, he has more potential than pretty much anyone not named Alford, i would have him around #4 behind SRF and Greene, the latter for his high floor.

 

You are the true self professed prospect expert. I apologize for making a list without your consent.

[TheHurl]

I'd give a case for Urena number 2 if I knew anything about his D. As always BA stays in line with their Draft/International/Previous Rankings unless there is a huge fall (Harris). SRF was only number 10 last year.

[Grant77]

I'd give a case for Urena number 2 if I knew anything about his D. As always BA stays in line with their Draft/International/Previous Rankings unless there is a huge fall (Harris). SRF was only number 10 last year.

 

True, but he was 3rd out of these players. Five of them are gone and the other two are Pompey and Sanchez.

[nmrch]

You are the true self professed prospect expert. I apologize for making a list without your consent.

 

Never claimed i was, i don't hide the fact that i base my opinions based solely on stats. I'm believer in performances over pedigree, draft status and how much of a bonus someone got. Take Jon Harris, 36 IP isn't an insignificant sample size, a college pitcher who struggled against NWL kiddies isn't going to amount to anything 99 times out of a 100, and yet many of you have him ranked very high.

[Angrioter]

I'd give a case for Urena number 2 if I knew anything about his D. As always BA stays in line with their Draft/International/Previous Rankings unless there is a huge fall (Harris). SRF was only number 10 last year.

 

I don't like Urena at all. Too aggressive at home plate and his D it's just average. Long swing, not a gamer

[Laika]

I don't like Urena at all. Too aggressive at home plate and his D it's just average. Long swing, not a gamer

 

Sea Bass

[nmrch]

Urena's numbers scream HR/FB% aberration, he had more HR's than doubles in the MWL and only 1 HR in 128 PA in the FSL. People should be skeptical of his power.

[Angrioter]

I'd give a case for Urena number 2 if I knew anything about his D. As always BA stays in line with their Draft/International/Previous Rankings unless there is a huge fall (Harris). SRF was only number 10 last year.

 

I'm very disappointed about Harris performance last year.

0-5 tell that he suxx, amirite?

[Angrioter]

Urena at DWL

(.256/.278/.326/.070)AVG/OBP/SLG/ ISO

GB/FB 1.16

[Grant77]

Never claimed i was, i don't hide the fact that i base my opinions based solely on stats. I'm believer in performances over pedigree, draft status and how much of a bonus someone got. Take Jon Harris, 36 IP isn't an insignificant sample size, a college pitcher who struggled against NWL kiddies isn't going to amount to anything 99 times out of a 100, and yet many of you have him ranked very high.

 

Anyone who ignores an important aspect of evaluating prospects is going to see worse results than someone who takes a balanced approach and uses all of the available information. That holds true for almost any exercise.

[Laika]

Take Jon Harris, 36 IP isn't an insignificant sample size

 

Kind of is tho

[Dr. Dinger]

I'd give a case for Urena number 2 if I knew anything about his D. As always BA stays in line with their Draft/International/Previous Rankings unless there is a huge fall (Harris). SRF was only number 10 last year.

 

Come on...

[Dr. Dinger]

I don't like Urena at all. Too aggressive at home plate and his D it's just average. Long swing, not a gamer

 

Come ON!

[TheHurl]

lol and yet you have Pentecost ranked very high who was horrible in a short sample size and has just as many injury concerns. I'm sorry but some of these lists are bad and you guys are the self professed prospect experts. Dan Jansen puts up awesome K to BB ratios and displays decent power when he's healthy, he has more potential than pretty much anyone not named Alford, i would have him around #4 behind SRF and Greene, the latter for his high floor.

 

He's also now three years in the org with 420 PA's. He has two years before he becomes Rule 5 fodder, he's shown a good eye and average power at this point. Unless he's a superior defensive catcher, which I'm certainly not going to make an assumption on, he's likely a career minor league guy. Urena is on the correct side of the split (his numbers are way better when he bats left), his K-Rates came down slightly as power went up (and was an 8/8 home/away split) it might not be . It's an encouraging sign...it's not like I expect much out of his career. But a Eugenio Suarez type is possible.

 

I hate this farm. I don't think there are 5 guys that will even make the majors on this list. Arguing 2 through 15 is just for fun at this point

[TheHurl]

Come on...

 

what? there are assumptions made about his D, just based on his Dominican roots. But there are many Dominican's who just don't inspire me in that region