Kenta Maeda

[KingKat]

http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/rwby/images/c/c2/Stay-on-topic.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20140816020637

[DuckDuckGose]

Nice profile of Maeda: http://www.amazinavenue.com/2015/12/13/9882352/international-free-agent-profile-kenta-maeda

 

 

 

Does he though? That's the big question.

 

IMO he has #1 upside but likely a 2/3 kind of guy. I'm not going to argue with people that feel he isn't that good. There's merit to that argument.

[DuckDuckGose]

Signing these Japanese players is still a bigger risk than Price, Grenkie, Cueto ect. The posting fee cap really helps the player more than anything. I don't expect the the Blue Jays to be involved at all. They seem pretty content with the current rotation. Sure that pisses people off but it is what it is.

 

Price and Greinke are way more risk because of the years and the $. Both those deals could be franchise crippling if they go South before the 3yr mark.

[Abomination]

IMO he has #1 upside but likely a 2/3 kind of guy. I'm not going to argue with people that feel he isn't that good. There's merit to that argument.

 

Really tough for us to gauge. There's some scouts that think he's a #4 or a #5, and some probably think he's the next Iwakuma. It's gonna be interesting to see if someone pays him like a #2, or if he gets something closer to 15 per.

[DuckDuckGose]

Really tough for us to gauge. There's some scouts that think he's a #4 or a #5, and some probably think he's the next Iwakuma. It's gonna be interesting to see if someone pays him like a #2, or if he gets something closer to 15 per.

 

Iwakuma is one of the main reasons I'm so high on Maeda. Most scouts have Maeda ahead of Dice-K and Iwakuma (but behind Tanaka and Darvish). If you can get a pitcher like that on a decent deal without giving up any assets other than payroll I think you have to pursue the opportunity.

[FrozenRopes]

Do we assume Stro is a #1? If so, we are looking for a 2 or 3 for 3 or 4 type money. Maeda does not fit that at all.

[DuckDuckGose]

we are looking for a 2 or 3 for 3 or 4 type money. Maeda does not fit that at all.

 

That asset doesn't exist through free agency, they come up once in a blue moon through trade or as a rehabilitation project but you have to give up value through trade and rehab prospects are way riskier (IMO $20M on Maeda is better than signing Cliff Lee at ~$13M and hoping you strike gold)

[HERPDERP]

That asset doesn't exist through free agency, they come up once in a blue moon through trade or as a rehabilitation project but you have to give up value through trade and rehab prospects are way riskier (IMO $20M on Maeda is better than signing Cliff Lee at ~$13M and hoping you strike gold)

 

20m is just the posting fee though. He's going to get at least $100m on top of that.

[DuckDuckGose]

20m is just the posting fee though. He's going to get at least $100m on top of that.

 

Ya sorry I meant $20M AAV, the posting fee would be on top of that. Good point -- IMO the argument still stands though. If you're paying 4/5 $ you're looking at a JA Happ contract. He does have 2/3 upside but I don't see anyone else on the market that fills that criteria. So you're looking at trades with that mentality.

[Krylian]

Have the Jays ever bid on anyone that was posted? I haven't read anywhere they did. I don't think this team will spend that kind of money, the Jays shy away from that route for some strange reason.

 

Hoping that this is the guy that the Jays will finally bid on is insane. They will continue to do the same thing, and the result will be the same.

[flafson]

In a market where Happ gets 12M AVV, someone that even smells like #2-#3 should have no problem getting 20M AAV.

[DuckDuckGose]

Hoping that this is the guy that the Jays will finally bid on is insane. They will continue to do the same thing, and the result will be the same.

 

They were the runner-ups for Darvish

[Dr. Dinger]

In a market where Happ gets 12M AVV, someone that even smells like #2-#3 should have no problem getting 20M AAV.

 

Happ finished with 3.3 fWAR, good for 28th among SPs, and right in company with guys that we would consider #2s like Lackey, Lynn, Liriano, CarMart. If an SP2 is a pitcher in the Top 30-60 range in all of baseball, then Happ is a guy who performed as a #2 last year. SP2s don't get $20M AAV. Samardzija didn't, Iwakuma didn't, Lackey didn't. Zimmerman got $22M AAV, but he's been a Top 15 pitcher over the last 3 years.

[Krylian]

They were the runner-ups for Darvish

 

I thought they won the Darvish sweepstakes. Isn't that what we were promised?

[Dr. Dinger]

The Cubs actually were the runners-up in the Darvish bidding. It's been reported that no team came close to the Rangers bid.

 

A bid which I predicted within $500K on the old board. 8)

[HERPDERP]

I thought they won the Darvish sweepstakes. Isn't that what we were promised?

 

let us relive that glorious day

 

http://nypost.com/2011/12/16/blue-jays-believed-to-outbid-yankees-others-for-darvish/

[DuckDuckGose]

He's not getting "$100m on top of" the posting fee.

I wanted to speculate at the top end and IMO that's what he will be shooting for.

 

- You can't assert that you believe Maeda is a #2/3 pitcher with #1 upside if there is no record of scouts or legitimate analysts saying that, unless you've extensively scouted Maeda yourself and give us reason to believe your perspective is credible.

I've watched as much of Maeda and have my opinions based on that but the industry has him as a 2/3. Someone (njh?) linked to an article comparing him to Gallardo who is a very solid #3.

 

- On an open market, you can't expect to acquire an "asset" that is more cost-effective than one you'll land via trade.

You can certainly try but that's also the point. Pitchers are getting crazy money this offseason. Here is an opportunity to land a premium asset at a below market rate.

 

The trade and free agent markets are efficient enough that the prices will be identical in terms of cash + talent, especially for a team that is viewed as an average destination and has an average-ish payroll.

I think the Shelby Miller trade proves that to be false. If you want good pitching you are going pay a very high price. I also think it's reasonable to assume Maeda will be as good as Miller in 2016. I also don't think Toronto is an averageish destination. IMO most FA's look at this team and market as one of the best in the league.

 

 

This is not a special opportunity because all 30 teams will be interested for the reasons laid out in this thread by Maeda proponents.

There will not be 30 teams involved and most teams do not have as competitive a team as Toronto. Winning is a priority even for international guys.

 

The only way this could be a special opportunity is if you believe the other teams are significantly undervaluing Maeda,

I think a lot of them are but not all of them

 

but we have no reason to believe that (as noted in previous point).

Sure we do. 100% less than half the league will post the $20M, we can wait and see but I'd wager very heavily on that.

 

- Hedging, 2015 revenues, and that MLB central revenues come in USD are not necessarily relevant here. Teams should theoretically spend on players until marginal expected revenue equals marginal player cost. Toronto's marginal expected revenues are derived from ticket sales and advertising, which will always come in CAD.

 

Hedging would allow them to limit risk but you're right it comes down to CAD revenue and the Jays make well over their current $130 USD payroll. They can easily afford $160M even at a $.65 CAD. Suggesting otherwise is foolish.

[DuckDuckGose]

A bid which I predicted within $500K on the old board. 8)

 

Do you remember the exact #'s? I remembered the Jays at the top of that 2nd group of teams. I thought it was $25M... Would love the actual # if someone has it on hand.

[DuckDuckGose]

I thought they won the Darvish sweepstakes. Isn't that what we were promised?

 

Ya, we were! What was that a-hole's name again? Something Grey?

[P2F]

Ya, we were! What was that a-hole's name again? Something Grey?

 

Kevin Gray, that f***er.

[labadee]

Have the Jays ever bid on anyone that was posted? I haven't read anywhere they did. I don't think this team will spend that kind of money, the Jays shy away from that route for some strange reason.

 

if you recall, we "won" the yu darvish bid remember?....and then we lost. We also bid on Chapman

[reedjohnsonfan]

- Hedging, 2015 revenues, and that MLB central revenues come in USD are not necessarily relevant here. Teams should theoretically spend on players until marginal expected revenue equals marginal player cost. Toronto's marginal expected revenues are derived from ticket sales and advertising, which will always come in CAD.

 

IMO the Blue Jays have a poor grasp on evaluating their expected profits and other teams are probably the same. Player valuation is one small part of it, but they make terrible cost decisions with poor marketing. For example I believe their ticket pricing system is retarded.

[Brownie19]

I really don't see what recruiting advantage the Jays might have here. They likely don't have deep enough pockets to offer Maeda more money than other teams making a bid and they don't really seem like an attractive destination for a Japanese free agent. Their brand isn't well know in Japan and other than Kawasaki who might be brought back as AAA filler, they won't have any potential Japanese teammates for him. I'm not opposed to making a bid but it seems pretty pointless.

 

We offer the best offence in baseball.....maybe Japanese guys don't buy sabermetrics and he's all about padding his wins???

[burlingtonbandit]

IMO the Blue Jays have a poor grasp on evaluating their expected profits and other teams are probably the same. Player valuation is one small part of it, but they make terrible cost decisions with poor marketing. For example I believe their ticket pricing system is retarded.

 

Yup. A Saturday Red Sox/Yankee game in July/August costs as much as a Sunday game vs the As in April. I think its going to be changed pretty soon though. Even this year I was select single game tickets will be dynamic pricing.

[Spanky__99]

Jays will bid, but he most certainly ends up on the west cost, "We Love LA". I'd love to have him, I'd be absolutely floored if that were to happen.

[KingKat]

We offer the best offence in baseball.....maybe Japanese guys don't buy sabermetrics and he's all about padding his wins???

 

I mean if you want to talk yourself into believing it might happen, go ahead... One can always come put with some sort of rationale for these things but it just doesn't seem likely.

[Sammy225]

We offer the best offence in baseball.....maybe Japanese guys don't buy sabermetrics and he's all about padding his wins???

 

What The f*** you talking about..... We all know Asians love complicated math.

[HERPDERP]

Maeda is in LA and meeting with the Dodgerbros

[DuckDuckGose]

I mean if you want to talk yourself into believing it might happen, go ahead... One can always come put with some sort of rationale for these things but it just doesn't seem likely.

 

Well the biggest argument against the Jays is that he's going to the west coast. If we look at those teams only really the Dodgers are a fit;

 

Seattle - full rotation but Maeda should be able to beat out a couple of their arms for a rotation spot. Japanese ties and have some money; probably the best fit but unlikely to pursue him

 

SF - already has $60M committed to Shark, Cain and Cueto; likely not interested in Maeda

 

Oakland - big ballpark and active in international free agency but doubtful to outbid anyone for Maeda

 

Angels - full rotation but would be their #2 or #3. Not sure they're going to spend with over $40M already committed to Weaver and Wilson.

 

Padres - other than money why would anyone go there? Doubtful they'll even be in it as they're trying to retool and shed salary

 

Dodgers - could use Maeda and have the money but being in the luxury tax means they'll have to make a much larger investment than other teams bidding; likely has to take less to play there

 

Arizona - after adding Greinke and Miller to their rotation they're likely done.

 

Ultimately, I think Maeda looks East out of necessity. I'm very skeptical that anyone on the West Coast is going to give him the best deal.

[Laika]

Well the biggest argument against the Jays is that he's going to the west coast.

 

Money isn't an issue?