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Shelby Miller is Desert-Bound (Because Dave Stewart Lost His Mind)

Moesby

By Moesby
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

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Jimcanuck Buffalo Bisons

Jimcanuck

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Um, where did I imply that his ERA was more indicative of how he pitched than anything else? I just said you guys look at a few metrics and call it a day which is generally the vibe I get when I read this forum.

 

NJH is right saying nothing about his skill set screams future ace, but he has a lot more potential than Drew Hutchison IMO. Here's a fairly positive article I glossed over for you to read:

 

As opposed to your gut?

 

Also, Hutch's slider was a wipeout pitch in the 2nd half of 2014. i wouldnt be quick to judge miller > hutch

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reedjohnsonfan Dunedin Blue Jays

reedjohnsonfan

Verified Member
Posted
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As opposed to your gut?

 

Also, Hutch's slider was a wipeout pitch in the 2nd half of 2014. i wouldnt be quick to judge miller > hutch

 

No... pitch mechanics, pitch usage, physical build, character (Miller's was poor in St. Louis reportedly), injury history, mileage, etc...

Daniel Labude Toronto Blue Jays

Daniel Labude

Jays Centre Contributor
Posted
Posted
Um, where did I imply that his ERA was more indicative of how he pitched than anything else? I just said you guys look at a few metrics and call it a day which is generally the vibe I get when I read this forum.

 

NJH is right saying nothing about his skill set screams future ace, but he has a lot more potential than Drew Hutchison IMO. Here's a fairly positive article I glossed over for you to read:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/shelby-miller-pseudo-prospect/

 

Miller doesn't throw avg, flat fastballs over the middle of the plate every other pitch as far as I can tell. Unless Hutch figures something out, Miller would be an upgrade depending on the price.

GD MVP

GD

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
No... pitch mechanics, pitch usage, physical build, character (Miller's was poor in St. Louis reportedly), injury history, mileage, etc...

 

You don't think analytics-inclined people look at these things? Lmfao

Maahfaace FCL Blue Jays

Maahfaace

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
No need to stare, his numbers quickly demonstrate that he's a league average pitcher who has benefited from environment and exceptional batted ball luck this year. The Braves are absolutely right to sell him now while there are still some ignorant GMs (like Dave Stewart) who share your extremely limited ability (and close-minded willingness) to understand predictive metrics.

 

No offense, but a lot of what you spew out on here is very "close minded" as you often only refer to fangraphs for your info when judging players. Its not that I disagree with your assessment of Miller, I actually think he is over-rated, but that article he listed does bring up some interesting points. The fact that he added 2 new pitches, and one of them (cutter) becoming top 3 among SP, can't be analyzed with a simple glance at his ERA/DIPS differential. NJH, he actually did improve, at least anyone who ever played baseball would agree is considered improvement. While the comparison to Arreita is a huge over-reach, at least the author has some tangible evidence as to why he came to that conclusion.

 

To write off Miller using metrics from years prior when he was a 2 pitch pitcher, is like referencing Dickey's stats before he threw the knuckleball. That's pretty close minded IMO

Maahfaace FCL Blue Jays

Maahfaace

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Not really.

 

It's just hard to see why Shelby Miller should be expected to continue to outperform his mediocre peripherals. I see nothing unique or potentially unique in his skillset. Maybe something's there, but there's no reason to assume there is.

 

The fact that he used to be a top prospect has literally zero bearing on his ERA-DIPS differential.

 

Sure he could improve, but anybody could improve...

 

This post here explains that you did exactly what Dinger did, look at FG and come to a definitive conclusion that Miller hasnt improved

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
This post here explains that you did exactly what Dinger did, look at FG and come to a definitive conclusion that Miller hasnt improved

 

It's not my fault that Fangraphs has all of the relevant information.

 

You want peripherals like HR%, K%, GB%, BB%? Fangraphs.

You want non-skill indicators like BABIP, LOB%, HR/FB%? Fangraphs.

You want FIP, xFIP, SIERA, xFIP-? Fangraphs.

You want pitch types and other pitchFX information? Fangraphs.

You want projections? Fangraphs.

 

I think the better question is... what f*** are you looking at that isn't on Fangraphs in some way?

Maahfaace FCL Blue Jays

Maahfaace

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
It's not my fault that Fangraphs has all of the relevant information.

 

You want peripherals like HR%, K%, GB%, BB%? Fangraphs.

You want non-skill indicators like BABIP, LOB%, HR/FB%? Fangraphs.

You want FIP, xFIP, SIERA, xFIP-? Fangraphs.

You want pitch types and other pitchFX information? Fangraphs.

You want projections? Fangraphs.

 

I think the better question is... what f*** are you looking at that isn't on Fangraphs in some way?

 

Although my post wasn't in the form of a question, I think the even better question is, how you missed the 2 new pitches he added to his repertoire while coming to the conclusion that no improvement had occurred at all......

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Although my post wasn't in the form of a question, I think the even better question is, how you missed the 2 new pitches he added to his repertoire while coming to the conclusion that no improvement had occurred at all......

 

Why do you think I didn't notice that he added two fastball variants? It had no noticeable affect on his xFIP or SIERA and his xFIP- was actually worse than average. So now you tell me how he "improved".

BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Seriously, 5 years of Inciarte > 3 years of Miller. If Blair and Swanson are added this is a fireable offense.

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