Sooo... when is it appropriate for AA to announce his deal with the Marlins?

[Terminator]

How can you say that without knowing the +? Obviously Stroman for Carrasco would be a heist for Cleveland, but with enough added it could swing the other way.

 

So what would the + be that would somehow swing a Stroman heist for Cleveland "to the other way"? Unloading some bad contracts? I'm confused.

[Dr. Dinger]

Or he was testing to see how desperate AA was. Stroman was out for the year and AA was looking for a starter to make a run and save his job at that time.

 

Precisely. It was a heavy ask, but not unreasonable in context. We don't know that Stroman is as good as Carrasco, that remains to be seen. Carrasco is also on a very team friendly contract.

[Frenchsoup]

Of course. Why was that stupid?

 

Because Carrasco is making money, cheap money but money. Carrasco is also injury prone and a bit older. Personally i'd prefer to have Stroman on my roster then CC moving forward.

[BTS]

I like Stroman, but Carrasco is a much more proven commodity. Hard to call that a heist when we know Carrasco is an ace, while Stroman merely has that upside.

 

I meant heist in favour of Cleveland. There's a serious gap in value between Carrasco and an injured Stroman.

[Dr. Dinger]

I thought it was reported it was Hoffman, Pompey, Alford?

 

I have to think AA would have gladly pulled the trigger on that.

[Dr. Dinger]

I meant heist in favour of Cleveland. There's a serious gap in value between Carrasco and an injured Stroman.

 

That's what I'm saying... how can you call that a heist for Cleveland? They are giving up a cheap ace for an injured guy who MAYBE could be an ace. How is that a heist? They are trading the best player.

[BTS]

That's what I'm saying... how can you call that a heist for Cleveland? They are giving up a cheap ace for an injured guy who MAYBE could be an ace. How is that a heist? They are trading the best player.

 

In favour of Cleveland. Cleveland wins. Toronto loses. Carrasco was clearly worth more than Stroman.

[Dr. Dinger]

My point was more intended to illustrate that AA didn't necessarily look for a rental from the beginning. If he had been able to land someone with some years of control the perception of his trade deadline would be different.

 

Purely hypothetical obviously, but to think he just said f*** it lets get all the rentals seems a little extreme.

 

I don't think anybody is saying that. The Donaldson trade illustrates AA's preference for cost-controlled commodities. The Price trade is the only marquee rental AA has ever pursued, and for all we know the front office had soured on Norris.

[Dr. Dinger]

In favour of Cleveland. Cleveland wins. Toronto loses. Carrasco was clearly worth more than Stroman.

 

Are you having a stroke? Or do you just not know what the word "heist" means?

[BTS]

Are you having a stroke?

 

Holy s***, I'm dumn. Nothing to see here. I was actually sitting here confused at why you weren't making sense.

[THANOS]

I like Stroman, but Carrasco is a much more proven commodity. Hard to call that a heist when we know Carrasco is an ace, while Stroman merely has that upside.

 

Carrasco's been elite for 1 1/2 years and is 29 years old, hardly proven yet.

[Laika]

peak BTS in here

[BTS]

Mods, plz delete thread. Thx.

[Dr. Dinger]

Carrasco's been elite for 1 1/2 years and is 29 years old, hardly proven yet.

 

He has 8 WAR over his last 317 innings, or about 5 WAR per 200 IP. That's an ace, and his peripherals back it up. Elite velo, elite whiffs, elite Ks, elite command, and above average GB tendencies. I was late to jump on the Carrasco train, but you can't look at what he's done over the last two seasons and deny that he has performed at the talent level of an ace.

[Dr. Dinger]

Holy s***, I'm dumn. Nothing to see here. I was actually sitting here confused at why you weren't making sense.

 

I just assumed you were trying to mindf*** me. We good.

[Frenchsoup]

Carrasco's been elite for 1 1/2 years and is 29 years old, hardly proven yet.

 

He and Stroman are 2 elite pitchers going into next year. My problem with Carrasco is he's had arm injuries before and throws a lot harder. So there's a lot more risk imo.

[THANOS]

In favour of Cleveland. Cleveland wins. Toronto loses. Carrasco was clearly worth more than Stroman.

 

Either my comprehension skills fell off a cliff, or this post is batshit insane.

[Dr. Dinger]

He and Stroman are 2 elite pitchers going into next year. My problem with Carrasco is he's had arm injuries before and throws a lot harder. So there's a lot more risk imo.

 

He throws harder, or has more velocity? Because those aren't the same thing. You and I might be throwing just as hard (ie physical exertion) but our velocities could be quite different. If Stroman is throwing at maximum effort but only throws 94 MPH, and Carrasco throws at 80% effort but his velocity is 96 MPH, then why would Carrasco be at more risk of injury? I don't think any correlation has been proven between velocity and injury, perhaps someone smarter could correct me if I'm wrong about that.

[Dr. Dinger]

Either my comprehension skills fell off a cliff, or this post is batshit insane.

 

The latter. BTS is daydrinking.

[BTS]

Either my comprehension skills fell off a cliff, or this post is batshit insane.

 

I'm posting while working and listening to a podcast. The results are not good.

[Frenchsoup]

He throws harder, or has more velocity? Because those aren't the same thing. You and I might be throwing just as hard (ie physical exertion) but our velocities could be quite different. If Stroman is throwing at maximum effort but only throws 94 MPH, and Carrasco throws at 80% effort but his velocity is 96 MPH, then why would Carrasco be at more risk of injury? I don't think any correlation has been proven between velocity and injury, perhaps someone smarter could correct me if I'm wrong about that.

 

So would you bet on Stroman getting hurt before Carrasco? Arm injury wise?

[THANOS]

He has 8 WAR over his last 317 innings, or about 5 WAR per 200 IP. That's an ace, and his peripherals back it up. Elite velo, elite whiffs, elite Ks, elite command, and above average GB tendencies. I was late to jump on the Carrasco train, but you can't look at what he's done over the last two seasons and deny that he has performed at the talent level of an ace.

 

I'm well aware of that, but he's also much older, has an injury history caused by his pitching, and had awful peripherals up until 2014 (meaning he only has a short history of dominance). Stroman's peripherals were amazing through his entire minors career and changed in the majors (K/9), likely, do to bad advice. Stro's more likely to continue to dominate if we regress to his career norms, whereas Carrasco may not for the reasons I listed.

 

He and Stroman are 2 elite pitchers going into next year. My problem with Carrasco is he's had arm injuries before and throws a lot harder. So there's a lot more risk imo.

 

That and age differences.

[Dr. Dinger]

So would you bet on Stroman getting hurt before Carrasco? Arm injury wise?

 

I'm not saying that. I have mentioned many times Carrasco's prior arm injuries and durability concerns as red flags. I'm merely stating that it's not his velocity which causes me to be concerned about his risk for reinjury, because I've never seen any correlation demonstrated there.

[Dr. Dinger]

I'm well aware of that, but he's also much older, has an injury history caused by his pitching, and had awful peripherals up until 2014 (meaning he only has a short history of dominance). Stroman's peripherals were amazing through his entire minors career and changed in the majors (K/9), likely, do to bad advice. Stroh s more likely to continue to dominate if we regress to his career norms, whereas Carrasco may not for the reasons I listed.

 

 

 

That and age differences.

 

You don't have to convince me, I wouldn't have done that trade anyway. That's more about dollars than talent, however.

[Laika]

He throws harder, or has more velocity? Because those aren't the same thing. You and I might be throwing just as hard (ie physical exertion) but our velocities could be quite different. If Stroman is throwing at maximum effort but only throws 94 MPH, and Carrasco throws at 80% effort but his velocity is 96 MPH, then why would Carrasco be at more risk of injury? I don't think any correlation has been proven between velocity and injury, perhaps someone smarter could correct me if I'm wrong about that.

 

TJS rate has gone up as average velocity has gone up in baseball. But it depends on the specific pitcher, like you said, and arm exertion. Many players will adopt mechanics at an early age that increase stress on their arm and therefore increase velocity.

 

David Price throws an easy and clean 96 --> low risk.

 

Shaun Marcum throws a mechanically strenuous 89 --> high risk.

 

Mark Prior threw 97 with the inverted W and terrible timing --> high risk

 

Bark Muehrle throws 85 with impeccable timing --> lowest imaginable risk!

 

But the general correlation does probably exist, yeah.

[THANOS]

You don't have to convince me, I wouldn't have done that trade anyway. That's more about dollars than talent, however.

 

That's true. I'm hopeful that Shapiro can turn some of our MLB strength into 1 of Carrasco, Ross or Martinez. It going to be a fun off-season.

[Dr. Dinger]

TJS rate has gone up as average velocity has gone up in baseball. But it depends on the specific pitcher, like you said, and arm exertion. Many players will adopt mechanics at an early age that increase stress on their arm and therefore increase velocity.

 

David Price throws an easy and clean 96 --> low risk.

 

Shaun Marcum throws a mechanically strenuous 89 --> high risk.

 

Mark Prior threw 97 with the inverted W and terrible timing --> high risk

 

Bark Muehrle throws 85 with impeccable timing --> lowest imaginable risk!

 

But the general correlation does probably exist, yeah.

 

I understand that velocity and prevalence of TJS have both increased, however, like you said, there could be several factors. TJS could be increasing because young pitchers try to throw harder to get to the velocity required to get noticed these days, or TJS could be increasing because of increased level of diagnosis, or some combination of both. As you say, I don't see evidence that one particular pitcher is more likely than another to tear a ligament just because his velocity is greater; the amount of exertion it takes for him to get there is likely the more important factor in his likelihood of getting injured. We can't sit here and say that Carrasco is "throwing harder" than Stroman just because his velocity is greater.

[z3r0s]

TJS rate has gone up as average velocity has gone up in baseball. But it depends on the specific pitcher, like you said, and arm exertion. Many players will adopt mechanics at an early age that increase stress on their arm and therefore increase velocity.

 

David Price throws an easy and clean 96 --> low risk.

 

Shaun Marcum throws a mechanically strenuous 89 --> high risk.

 

Mark Prior threw 97 with the inverted W and terrible timing --> high risk

 

RA Dickey has no UCL --> lowest imaginable risk!

 

But the general correlation does probably exist, yeah.

 

ftfy

[burlingtonbandit]

I have to think AA would have gladly pulled the trigger on that.

 

I think that was what was offered but Cleveland turned it down. Interesting because the Blue Jays wouldn't of been able to get Tulowitzki if they made that trade unless the Rockies would of took Norris but they obviously wanted Hoffman more.

 

Edit: It was Norris, Hoffman, Pompey that was offered.

 

[Laika]

I understand that velocity and prevalence of TJS have both increased, however, like you said, there could be several factors. TJS could be increasing because young pitchers try to throw harder to get to the velocity required to get noticed these days, or TJS could be increasing because of increased level of diagnosis, or some combination of both. As you say, I don't see evidence that one particular pitcher is more likely than another to tear a ligament just because his velocity is greater; the amount of exertion it takes for him to get there is likely the more important factor in his likelihood of getting injured. We can't sit here and say that Carrasco is "throwing harder" than Stroman just because his velocity is greater.

 

What we have here is correlation vs causation. Velocity has a positive relationship with elbow torque. Elbow torque is the direct cause of elbow injury. So velocity is correlated with TJS, and any study will find that pitchers who throw harder will be more likely to have TJS.

 

Because Carrasco throws harder it is more likely that his elbow is under more torque during his pitching motion, but we don't know for sure.

 

Plagiarism:

 

This finding also makes sense based on the findings of biomechanical research. Hurd et al. (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23016114, 2012) analyzed 26 high school pitchers using 3-dimensional motion analysis and found a significant positive association between pitch velocity and elbow torque (more stress on the UCL).

 

In addition, Anz et al. (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20400752) used video biomechanical analysis and showed a significant correlation between higher elbow torque at the late-cocking stage of throwing and an increased risk of injury in a group of 23 professional baseball players. Putting the information from these two studies together, we have higher pitch velocity being shown to be associated with increased elbow torque and then increased elbow torque being associated with an increased risk of elbow injury.

 

But what about examining the relationship between pitch velocity and elbow injury more directly? Bushnell et al. (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20093420) used the data collected in the Anz et al. study mentioned above and followed the pitchers prospectively for three seasons. Nine of the 23 players developed an elbow injury, and this injured group had a significantly higher average fastball velocity (89.22 mph) than the 14 pitchers in the non-injured group (85.22 mph). Additionally, the Olsen et al. (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16452269) study referenced earlier examined risk factors between teenage pitchers with and without a history of shoulder or elbow injury and found that the elbow injury group threw with significantly higher fastball velocity (88.1 mph) compared to the non-injury group (82.7 mph).

 

So, there do seem to be associations between pitch velocity, elbow torque, and elbow injury. However, increased pitch velocity is an important aspect of performance, which is where using biomechanics may come into play in order to find pitching techniques that maintain velocity while reducing stress on the elbow.

 

The Holy Grail of mechanical pitching instruction is to get your pitchers throwing harder without increasing their injury risk. Is it even possible, though?

 

Should teams want durable pitchers, or dominant pitchers? At what level of velocity does the injury risk start to mitigate the increased performance?

 

What are the effects of weighted ball programs, long-toss, etc.?

 

I wish I worked as a baseball biomechanics analyst.