Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Captain Adama]

How are we all feeling about Orelvis these days?

 

Orgfiller

[Jimcanuck]

How are we all feeling about Orelvis these days?

 

Somewhere between Maikel Franco and Rafael Devers

[Daniel Labude]

 

[Daniel Labude]

How are we all feeling about Orelvis these days?

 

Top prospect. Working his way to getting better. When it all clicks watch out

[Jimcanuck]

Top prospect. Working his way to getting better. When it all clicks watch out

 

^ owns Orelvis in LOD

[Terminator]

 

That second one was a bomb. Pretty impressive distance for a 20 year old SS.

[gruber92]

So it looks like the bullpen auditions are well on their way in Buffalo. Gage should definitely be back.

[Daniel Labude]

^ owns Orelvis in LOD

 

In all my fantasy leagues actually

[John Balkabella]

Is Rikelban de Castro the worst hitter ever?

[Blazeit420]

No since Bradley Zimmer exists.

[John Balkabella]

No since Bradley Zimmer exists.

 

Point taken.

[Laika]

How are we all feeling about Orelvis these days?

 

He'll basically be Matt Chapman without the elite elite D

[Terminator]

How much of a pass does he get for the contact issues when he's only 20 years old in AA?

[Jimcanuck]

How much of a pass does he get for the contact issues when he's only 20 years old in AA?

 

The bigger question is why did he have a .197 BABIP in A+ and now a .216 BABIP in AA. Are there numbers somewhere that might explain?

[Laika]

They have batted ball stats for minors on FG.

 

He's an extreme FB guy. It's like the Adam Duvall or Joey Gallo school of hitting.

 

So it's not the good kind of extreme FB like Trout where it's liners and flyballs. It's flyballs and pop ups.

[Jonn]

Somewhere between Maikel Franco and Rafael Devers

 

Talk about 2 levels of extreme.

[Daniel Labude]

They have batted ball stats for minors on FG.

 

He's an extreme FB guy. It's like the Adam Duvall or Joey Gallo school of hitting.

 

So it's not the good kind of extreme FB like Trout where it's liners and flyballs. It's flyballs and pop ups.

 

LD/GB/FB/IFFB

 

Trout

16.1%40.6%43.3%17.3%

 

21.2%38.0%40.9%25.0%

 

Orelvis

26.4%31.1%42.5%23.2%

 

15.5%33.2%51.3%26.0%

 

Orelvis was better than Trout in A ball....its about adjusting to offspeed in AA. Not being an extreme flyball

[Dagagad]

LD/GB/FB/IFFB

 

Trout

16.1%40.6%43.3%17.3%

 

21.2%38.0%40.9%25.0%

 

Orelvis

26.4%31.1%42.5%23.2%

 

15.5%33.2%51.3%26.0%

 

Orelvis was better than Trout in A ball....its about adjusting to offspeed in AA. Not being an extreme flyball

 

I’ve only heard people talking about this in passing but isn’t this a ‘cliff’ stat? Like once, you go over a line it REALLY affects your babip but it doesn’t necessarily work incrementally (is that the right word?) up unto that point. I’ve always heard 50% as a line where it’s just always too far.

[Laika]

I’ve only heard people talking about this in passing but isn’t this a ‘cliff’ stat? Like once, you go over a line it REALLY affects your babip but it doesn’t necessarily work incrementally (is that the right word?) up unto that point. I’ve always heard 50% as a line where it’s just always too far.

 

That's how some people think about it but I don't know of that has statistical justification. I know Eno Sarris mentions that all the time so if you listen to Rates and Barrels that might be where you heard it

[Dagagad]

That's how some people think about it but I don't know of that has statistical justification. I know Eno Sarris mentions that all the time so if you listen to Rates and Barrels that might be where you heard it

 

That’s exactly where i heard it, I forgot.

[Laika]

LD/GB/FB/IFFB

 

Trout

16.1%40.6%43.3%17.3%

 

21.2%38.0%40.9%25.0%

 

Orelvis

26.4%31.1%42.5%23.2%

 

15.5%33.2%51.3%26.0%

 

Orelvis was better than Trout in A ball....its about adjusting to offspeed in AA. Not being an extreme flyball

 

Nah man it's the shape of his swing. Unfortunately.

 

The K's are somewhat related to that too. He must have a massive uppercut. Like, legendary golf style home run swing.

 

If he can tweak his mechanics a bit and not have such a crazy uppercut then maybe the babip and K rate both improve.

[Daniel Labude]

I’ve only heard people talking about this in passing but isn’t this a ‘cliff’ stat? Like once, you go over a line it REALLY affects your babip but it doesn’t necessarily work incrementally (is that the right word?) up unto that point. I’ve always heard 50% as a line where it’s just always too far.

 

I would say yes, but the variation inside each designation can result in it not having that much of an effect as you would think or a greater effect.

[Krylian]

Should've traded Orelvis after last season based on the dissection of his swing and offensive projections in this thread this season.

[Daniel Labude]

LD/GB/FB/IFFB

 

Trout

16.1%40.6%43.3%17.3%

 

21.2%38.0%40.9%25.0%

 

Orelvis

26.4%31.1%42.5%23.2%

 

15.5%33.2%51.3%26.0%

 

Orelvis was better than Trout in A ball....its about adjusting to offspeed in AA. Not being an extreme flyball

 

16.4%31.0%52.6%23.0%

 

Look at these identical numbers to Orelvis at AA....would you guess its top prospect Volpe. And he has a BABIP of .286

[Laika]

16.4%31.0%52.6%23.0%

 

Look at these identical numbers to Orelvis at AA....would you guess its top prospect Volpe. And he has a BABIP of .286

 

This is not how you go about this type of data analysis

 

Look at extreme fly ball hitters over large sample sizes. The effect is clear. Joey Gallo being the obvious example. .260 career BABIP despite being fast and hitting the ball hard as f***.

 

These afflicted players can still have extremely good seasons, through variance.

 

Yeah Martinez' .216 BABIP might be partially bad luck but the story is the same this season whether he's hitting .199 or .235, really. Either way he looks like a guy with an approach and contact issues that MLB pitchers can PROBABLY exploit to the point of failure. Unless he makes a big change.

 

Also, completely different consideration with Volpe. His statistical context is not the same. You can say with Volpe that if he had a better trajectory on his batted balls he'd be a f***ing .300/.400/.500 hitter. I mean he has the K-BB and power skills to hit .300 and BABIP .320 in the minors, clearly. So yeah you've identified Volpe's problem; the reason he has a 122 wRC+ and not a 150.

[Daniel Labude]

This is not how you go about this type of data analysis

 

Look at extreme fly ball hitters over large sample sizes. The effect is clear. Joey Gallo being the obvious example. .260 career BABIP despite being fast and hitting the ball hard as f***.

 

These afflicted players can still have extremely good seasons, through variance.

 

Yeah Martinez' .216 BABIP might be partially bad luck but the story is the same this season whether he's hitting .199 or .235, really. Either way he looks like a guy with an approach and contact issues that MLB pitchers can PROBABLY exploit to the point of failure. Unless he makes a big change.

 

Also, completely different consideration with Volpe. His statistical context is not the same. You can say with Volpe that if he had a better trajectory on his batted balls he'd be a f***ing .300/.400/.500 hitter. I mean he has the K-BB and power skills to hit .300 and BABIP .320 in the minors, clearly. So yeah you've identified Volpe's problem; the reason he has a 122 wRC+ and not a 150.

 

Do you not know how to analyze data?

[Grant77]

Do you not know how to analyze data?

 

Certainly not and that has been demonstrated on many occasions.

 

Edit: The fact that Laika deleted this is hilarious. Such a thin skinned loser

[Laika]

Do you not know how to analyze data?

 

My response was not personal man. Your way of looking at it was just not optimal and too apologetic.

[Laika]

Certainly not and that has been demonstrated on many occasions.

 

Edit: The fact that Laika deleted this is hilarious. Such a thin skinned loser ��

 

Nobody likes you.

 

I didn't delete anything, lol

[Grant77]

Nobody likes you.

 

I didn't delete anything, lol

 

Thanks, same goes for you.