Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[L54]

Joey Wendle > Santiago Espinal

 

Would anyone really be surprised if Espinal had like a 70 wRC+ and slugged .330 next year? I wouldn’t

 

He’s basically David Fletcher. If he runs into a season where guys are knocking the bat out of his hands he is legitimately useless at the plate.

[Jimcanuck]

We need Gruber to weigh in here

[John_Havok]

Joey Wendle > Santiago Espinal

 

Would anyone really be surprised if Espinal had like a 70 wRC+ and slugged .330 next year? I wouldn’t

 

He’s basically David Fletcher. If he runs into a season where guys are knocking the bat out of his hands he is legitimately useless at the plate.

 

That's basically his output in 2020, but that was 60 PAs, so not really all that telling. He's a slappy spray hitter with a good eye at the plate. Yeah, if his BABIP doesn't run higher than most, his offensive value will dry up. But his defense is plus wherever he plays, so there's always gonna be PA's available for him somewhere. But he probably shouldn't be a starter either.

[Spanky__99]

so far so good here.

 

he was a ball placement artist in 2021. it was beautiful.

 

lol... where have you been f***er, I miss this hilarity.

[L54]

That's basically his output in 2020, but that was 60 PAs, so not really all that telling. He's a slappy spray hitter with a good eye at the plate. Yeah, if his BABIP doesn't run higher than most, his offensive value will dry up. But his defense is plus wherever he plays, so there's always gonna be PA's available for him somewhere. But he probably shouldn't be a starter either.

 

He absolutely shouldn’t be a starter. Maybe for the Pirates but not the Jays

[Stangstag]

Very real chance Espinal starts around 30 games at SS next season if/when Bo goes down. We don't have the luxury of having an MVP-caliber 2B that can easily slide to SS anymore.

[Jimcanuck]

lol... where have you been f***er, I miss this hilarity.

 

Dealing with his ED problem

[Spanky__99]

Hopefully Espinal is on the juice this winter.

 

Comes back in 2022 with popeye forearms and f***ing mashes.

 

No one will ever know.

 

lol

[Jimcanuck]

To recap:

 

Steamer has Espinal with a better bat than Wendle in 2022, plus his defense is better

 

My gut tells me Wendle will be slightly better with the bat, but Espinal more than makes up for the difference with his defense

 

Laika's gut says Wendle will be >> Espinal

 

So let's see what happens.

[Laika]

To recap:

 

Steamer has Espinal with a better bat than Wendle in 2022, plus his defense is better

 

My gut tells me Wendle will be slightly better with the bat, but Espinal more than makes up for the difference with his defense

 

Laika's gut says Wendle will be >> Espinal

 

So let's see what happens.

 

Also grant is on my team and connorp is neutral but wants to see me fail more than anything

[Grant77]

Also grant is on my team and connorp is neutral but wants to see me fail more than anything

 

I'm not expecting Wendle to fall off a cliff after a 2.6 WAR season with a 106 wRC+, a season which was pretty normal for him. He'll probably be within that range again.

 

Espinal I think was awfully lucky last season. I think the 91 wRC+ projection for him is overly generous and he'll struggle to replicate the 2020 results with the bat.

[Jimcanuck]

I'm not expecting Wendle to fall off a cliff after a 2.6 WAR season with a 106 wRC+, a season which was pretty normal for him. He'll probably be within that range again.

 

Espinal I think was awfully lucky last season. I think the 91 wRC+ projection for him is overly generous and he'll struggle to replicate the 2020 results with the bat.

 

So hopefully we will see just how good your sports gut is in 2022.

[Grant77]

So hopefully we will see just how good your sports gut is in 2022.

 

I sure hope so. The Wendle prediction is more common sense than gut, but I admit that there's just something about Espinal at the plate that I don't like.

[Spanky__99]

Hope I'm wrong, but Espy's a good 26 man. A slightly better Goins, great glove, putrid bat. No damn way he should be a starter coming into this season, the sample's too small. Wendle >>> Espy easy for me.

[John_Havok]

I'm not expecting Wendle to fall off a cliff after a 2.6 WAR season with a 106 wRC+, a season which was pretty normal for him. He'll probably be within that range again.

 

Espinal I think was awfully lucky last season. I think the 91 wRC+ projection for him is overly generous and he'll struggle to replicate the 2020 results with the bat.

 

The biggest thing that changed with Espinal from 2020 (SSS caveat) and 2021 is his whiff rate on certain pitches, and thus, his overall K rate. Against the fast ball in 2021, his whiff rate was just 10% vs 22% in 2020. Breaking ball whiff rate was about the same... slightly up from 20% to 22% so not super significant. Offspeed whiff rate fell from 40% to 25%. Overall K rate went from 24% to 12%.

 

Exit velo average was 85 in 2021 vs 87 in 2020. Looks like he might have made some conscious efforts to reign in his swing a bit to make more contact and spray it around as well. His pull (39%), centre(31%) and oppo (31%) rates where pretty even last season with a slight favor to the pull side, whereas 2020 he was 46%, 40% and 15%

 

To a guy with no power, that's how he's going to have to hit to be even remotely successful.

 

To put the fastball whiff rate into perspective, Vlad's whiff rate on fastballs was 17%. Obviously not saying Espinal is a better hitter against the fastball, just saying that whiff rate is really really good.

[connorp]

Also grant is on my team and connorp is neutral but wants to see me fail more than anything

 

I’m only neutral in that my gut tells me Wendle is the better bat next year. But you’re taking what you believe is a proven scientific formula and re-weighting certain parts of it how you see fit, to reach an alternative conclusion that you refuse to call your gut.

[John_Havok]

All that said about Espinal, if I had to pick who I think will be the better hitter in 2022, I'd take Wendle, but the difference is probably not huge. Wendle is a spray guy too and hits the ball harder.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't think we can discount the possibility Espinal is still improving at 27. Wendle going into his age 32 season, probably not, probably the other way if anything.

[L54]

Can’t discount that Wendle has been doing it for four years and Espinal has been doing it for 300 AB’s either

[Jimcanuck]

Can’t discount that Wendle has been doing it for four years and Espinal has been doing it for 300 AB’s either

 

Well of course. Wendle had 14 PA in his age 27 season, so there's that too.

[Laika]

lol... where have you been f***er, I miss this hilarity.

 

degenerate gambling 24/7 on crypto jpegs

[Deadpool]

Hopefully Espinal is on the juice this winter.

 

Comes back in 2022 with popeye forearms and f***ing mashes.

 

No one will ever know.

 

I'd love to see him pull an Eric Thames, where he just comes back looking like a goddamn tank one spring.

[max silver]

I'd love to see him pull an Eric Thames, where he just comes back looking like a goddamn tank one spring.

 

Thames was always a pretty big dude to start with though, Espinal doesn't have that type of build naturally.

[Jimcanuck]

I hope he comes back stronger with the same lean build. Defense matters.

[Krylian]

Thames was always a pretty big dude to start with though, Espinal doesn't have that type of build naturally.

 

Ok. Brandon League then.

[Abomination]

Ok. Brandon League then.

 

Yeah, but Espinal's exit velocity needs to increase, not decrease

 

League has to be about the only guy ever to lose 10% of his velocity after finally deciding to work out.

[Spanky__99]

Yeah, but Espinal's exit velocity needs to increase, not decrease

 

League has to be about the only guy ever to lose 10% of his velocity after finally deciding to work out.

 

Too much trap work, haha!

[jerb]

 

Mitch Bannon

@MitchBannon

 

In 8 games (34 PA) in the Venezuelan Winter League, #BlueJays prospect Gabriel Moreno is slashing .346/.500/.346.

[jerb]

[Krylian]

 

Mitch Bannon

@MitchBannon

 

In 8 games (34 PA) in the Venezuelan Winter League, #BlueJays prospect Gabriel Moreno is slashing .346/.500/.346.

 

Where's the power?