Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Laika]

Why is the industry so low on Kevin Smith? Am I missing something because from what I've read Smith grades out as an average or better defensive middle infielder with potential for plus power and a fringe average hit tool. How is that not top 10 in our system?

 

I think it's mostly lag. Evaluators haven't updated their info this year or have not even seen him for whatever reason. And then Baseball America completely whiffed in the above list. They misplaced him IMO.

[Ray]

What are the comps for Austin Martin, anyway?

 

Try to find some MLB players with skill sets like this:

 

60+ hit tool with good plate discipline

below average game power

weak arm

average speed

not an everyday player at any premium position

 

The three positive examples I can think of are Adam Frazier, Nick Markakis without the arm and from 2009 on, and Howie Kendrick (but Kendrick was an aggressive hitter).

 

Maybe Adam Frazier is the best one there.

 

I guess a lot of hit tool predominant guys like Melky Cabrera could also be comparable.

 

I think in most instances this is a skill set that will spend a lot of seasons around 2 WAR, unless he can figure out how to lift/drive the ball more or how to be a plus CF/2B.

 

Andrew Benintedi could be a good comp, albeit Benintendi is a pretty good defender. If all goes well and Martin taps into a little more power, maybe he could be Jonathan India lite? I remember evaluators being quite down on India after he was drafted high, and he’s turned out to be a fine player.

 

I’m not still not really out on Martin as a valuable piece, but I think it’s clear he’s not in the Bregman/Rendon level of superstar level player that we all expected him to be.

[Laika]

Andrew Benintedi could be a good comp, albeit Benintendi is a pretty good defender. If all goes well and Martin taps into a little more power, maybe he could be Jonathan India lite?

 

I’m not still not really out on Martin as a valuable piece, but I think it’s clear he’s not in the Bregman/Rendon level of superstar level player that we all expected him to be.

 

Yeah those are good. Also hit the "top prospect" part of the profile. India is actually having a great year while Benintendi seems almost done.

[BlueRocky]

If all goes well and Martin taps into a little more power, maybe he could be Jonathan India lite?

 

but I think it’s clear he’s not in the Bregman/Rendon level of superstar level player that we all expected him to be.

 

People are making a lot to assumptions based on a 278 PA sample in the minors and half of that Martin has been playing with an injured hand. Not directing this at anyone specifically, but like.. I get the casual fan base is trying really hard to justify the Berrios trade to themselves and trying to talk down Austin Martin as an asset, but it’s getting out of hand.

 

The kid is a great prospect and one the highest pick the Jays have made in over a decade. It hurts... and that’s fine. Other teams are allowed to make smart decisions too. Twins got a haul and the Jays had to outbid several rivals to secure Berrios, that’s just reality. I’m still really high on Martin and think he’s a stud, but I don’t think the team will regret this deal if Berrios gets signed long term. It’s a calculated gamble, we can just move on, and I’m happy we got Jose Berrios.

[Scion]

People are making a lot to assumptions based on a 278 PA sample in the minors and half of that Martin has been playing with an injured hand. Not directing this at anyone specifically, but like.. I get the casual fan base is trying really hard to justify the Berrios trade to themselves and trying to talk down Austin Martin as an asset, but it’s getting out of hand.

 

The kid is a great prospect and one the highest pick the Jays have made in over a decade. It hurts... and that’s fine. Other teams are allowed to make smart decisions too. Twins got a haul and the Jays had to outbid several rivals to secure Berrios, that’s just reality. I’m still really high on Martin and think he’s a stud, but I don’t think the team will regret this deal if Berrios gets signed long term. It’s a calculated gamble, we can just move on, and I’m happy we got Jose Berrios.

 

It's not assumptions though, it's scouts who are voicing these concerns and backing up the talk by lowering Martin in their rankings. It's also telling that the Jays allegedly did not rank Martin in their internal top 3 or 4 prospects. This doesn't mean that Martin sucks, but it is fair to say that his perceived ceiling is not the same as a year ago.

[FantasyNewb]

I believe Martin's average exit velocity dropped 8MPH since his college days. That is definitely a red flag and is a big reason why some scouts are down on him.

[Spanky99]

I believe Martin's average exit velocity dropped 8MPH since his college days. That is definitely a red flag and is a big reason why some scouts are down on him.

 

That's with an injured hand and a different approach, time will tell as BlueRocky points out above, maybe next season he comes back to his power numbers he had in college, goes to show how talented his bat to ball skills are in changing to an inside out swing do to injury.

[Scion]

That's with an injured hand and a different approach, time will tell as BlueRocky points out above, maybe next season he comes back to his power numbers he had in college, goes to show how talented his bat to ball skills are in changing to an inside out swing do to injury.

 

Do we know this for sure though? I know Eno Sarris or some other scout mentioned it once off-hand, but when did the injury start and when did it end? Did his exit velo rebound etc.

[Spanky99]

Do we know this for sure though? I know Eno Sarris or some other scout mentioned it once off-hand, but when did the injury start and when did it end? Did his exit velo rebound etc.

 

I'm just going by what I've read in this Minor League thread, and I believe it was Eno Sarris. I mean logically that would explain the s***** ISO, wouldn't it? We're not privy to them stats on his exit velo, not that I'm aware of.

[max silver]

I'm just going by what I've read in this Minor League thread, and I believe it was Eno Sarris. I mean logically that would explain the s***** ISO, wouldn't it? We're not privy to them stats on his exit velo, not that I'm aware of.

 

I'm fairly certain it was Keith Law who mentioned that Martin had altered his swing due to a hand injury. I've not heard a peep from the organization or any of Rogers multiple writers about this issue though.

[Spanky99]

I'm fairly certain it was Keith Law who mentioned that Martin had altered his swing due to a hand injury. I've not heard a peep from the organization or any of Rogers multiple writers about this issue though.

 

Keith was the other that mentioned it too, they both posted the same day of similar reports, IIRC. As for the Org, of course you won't hear anything like that aside from the injury itself and timeline. The Rogers guys don't cover the minors really, they just blurbs of recent news on injuries etc...

[max silver]

Keith was the other that mentioned it too, they both posted the same day of similar reports, IIRC. As for the Org, of course you won't hear anything like that aside from the injury itself and timeline. The Rogers guys don't cover the minors really, they just blurbs of recent news on injuries etc...

 

It's a little hard to know what to think with regards to Martin's lack of power up to this point. He has displayed the top notch hit tool and plate discipline but hasn't really excelled anywhere else if reports are to be believed. There were whispers that the Jays were very concerned about the lack of power Martin has displayed up to this point, which would certainly lend credence to his internal value having fallen off a fair bit. If Martin was dealing with a hand injury for most of the season that would certainly help to alleviate much of the concern.

 

Heading into the season I thought he was one of the untouchable prospects in the organization, but now aside from Orelvis Martinez and Gabriel Moreno I don't know if anyone else would rank as untouchable at this point.

[Ray]

People are making a lot to assumptions based on a 278 PA sample in the minors and half of that Martin has been playing with an injured hand. Not directing this at anyone specifically, but like.. I get the casual fan base is trying really hard to justify the Berrios trade to themselves and trying to talk down Austin Martin as an asset, but it’s getting out of hand.

 

The kid is a great prospect and one the highest pick the Jays have made in over a decade. It hurts... and that’s fine. Other teams are allowed to make smart decisions too. Twins got a haul and the Jays had to outbid several rivals to secure Berrios, that’s just reality. I’m still really high on Martin and think he’s a stud, but I don’t think the team will regret this deal if Berrios gets signed long term. It’s a calculated gamble, we can just move on, and I’m happy we got Jose Berrios.

 

Baseball fans have an unhealthy obsession with trying to categorize trades as binary. There has to be a winner and there has to be a loser, as if it's some zero sum game. Not always the case. The Twins front office isn't dumb. I'm sure they are aware of the warts in Martin and Woods-Richardson's games, but they're banking on their player development system patching up those holes. It was an opportunity to get access to two talents that would not have been accessible coming into the season.

 

I still really like Martin and will root for him to succeed. His bat-to-ball skills are dynamic. He's been one of the better pure hitters from the collegiate ranks in years, but I also very much understand why we made that trade. Yes, the Blue Jays COULD be lower on Martin that they were when they drafted him, but that could still mean they like him a lot.

 

Pretty sure in interviews that Shapiro/Atkins did post trade, they both did mention that they still really liked Austin Martin, but acknowledged it was just the cost of business.

[Ray]

I'm also reasonably confident we will get an extension done with Berrios this offseason. With the amount of stress this front office puts on process, they had to have reached out to Berrios' agent to get a pulse on what his ballpark number is and had to have been comfortable with it. They're banking on him loving the city, the team, and working with Pete Walker. We usually have trouble getting free agents here, but not so much when its retaining players that are already here. More players love playing in Toronto more often than not.

[Laika]

Berrios' value is pretty well known, established, and projectable. He will be good for the next 1.35 seasons but not a true Ace.

 

The value of Martin and SWR is not as easy to peg. They could bust, or be superstars. Teams will have varying evaluations too.

 

At the time the trade was announced the cost seemed like a massive overpay for Berrios based on precedent. Martin was considered a top 20 prospect (based on offseason lists) and SWR was considered a top 50 or so prospect. That's a huge price for 1.35 seasons of a good but not elite starter. Marcus Stroman is a comparable pitcher and he was traded for substantially less. Historically teams just have not given up prospects of Martin's caliber unless they were getting back a massive star under control, or something like that.

 

With the above in mind one of two possibilities has to be true:

 

1. The Blue Jays overpaid massively for Berrios.

2. The public perception of Martin and/or SWR was significantly too high. They were overvalued by fans and public prospectors, but not by MLB teams who have more info.

 

So it's entirely fair to go looking for what is wrong with Martin at this point. It's not just about trying to justify a trade as a biased fan. It's more like trying to make sense of it all. Because if Toronto thinks Austin Martin has any reasonable chance of being Alex Bregman they are 100% not doing this trade.

[Ray]

Jose Berrios hasn't been a #1 so far, but I think this front office truly believes he can & will be. While position players are usually in their primes by age 27, there are a ton of examples of starting pitchers that didn't truly hit their stride until their late 20's like Scherzer, DeGrom, Lynn, Verlander, Cole, Bauer, etc. Guys like Kershaw, Bieber, Kluber, etc. that are great almost right away are more the exception, not the rule. Berrios has the pure stuff, the ability to go deep into games, and the durability to be like those guys imo.

 

Ross Atkins made an interesting comment not too long ago. When he was asked "What the most important quality do you look for in a starting pitcher?", he mentioned "durability". Because it's not just about having the stuff or velo, but staying healthy enough so that you can mature into a potential ace with more reps and experience.

[Laika]

Jose Berrios hasn't been a #1 so far, but I think this front office truly believes he can & will be. While position players are usually in their primes by age 27, there are a ton of examples of starting pitchers that didn't truly hit their stride until their late 20's like Scherzer, DeGrom, Lynn, Verlander, Cole, Bauer, etc. Guys like Kershaw, Bieber, Kluber, etc. that are great almost right away are more the exception, not the rule. Berrios has the pure stuff, the ability to go deep into games, and the durability to be like those guys imo.

 

Ross Atkins made an interesting comment not too long ago. When he was asked "What the most important quality do you look for in a starting pitcher?", he mentioned "durability". Because it's not just about having the stuff or velo, but staying healthy enough so that you can mature into a potential ace with more reps and experience.

 

Berrios' "stuff" might compare to Lynn's but those other names would all be clearly above. And of course that means prime Scherzer/Verlander, not current versions.

[Ray]

More Moreno hype from Baseball America

 

Q: What kind of upside are we looking at with Gabriel Moreno?

 

J.J. Cooper: Massive. When we were doing our midseason calls, we did talk to evaluators who would argue ranking him ahead of Adley Rutschman. We're not going there, but that is something we heard on multiple occasions.

[Laika]

More Moreno hype from Baseball America

 

Q: What kind of upside are we looking at with Gabriel Moreno?

 

J.J. Cooper: Massive. When we were doing our midseason calls, we did talk to evaluators who would argue ranking him ahead of Adley Rutschman. We're not going there, but that is something we heard on multiple occasions.

 

holy fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuk

[P2F]

More Moreno hype from Baseball America

 

Q: What kind of upside are we looking at with Gabriel Moreno?

 

J.J. Cooper: Massive. When we were doing our midseason calls, we did talk to evaluators who would argue ranking him ahead of Adley Rutschman. We're not going there, but that is something we heard on multiple occasions.

 

[BlueRocky]

BA top 100 update.

 

1. Adley Rutschman

2. Julio Rodriguez

3. Bobby Witt Jr.

4. Spencer Torkelson

5. Riley Greene

6. Marco Luciano

7. CJ Abrams

8. Noelvi Marte

9. Grayson Rodriguez

10. Gabriel Moreno

11. George Kirby

12. Shane Baz

13. Keibert Ruiz

14. Luis Patiño

15. Francisco Alvarez

16. Jose Barrero

17. Nick Lodolo

18. Austin Martin

19. Joey Bart

20. Triston Casas

 

51. Nate Pearson

54. Orelvis Martinez

77. Jordan Groshans

79. Alejandro Kirk

 

Graduated: Alek Manoah (prev #12)

[Ray]

Bichette minor leagues slashline: .321/.380/.515, 8.3% BB%, 17.3% K%

Moreno minor leagues slashine: .313/.367/.501, 7% BB%, 10.6% K%

 

So he’s basically Bo with with more defensive tools at his position and maybe a better ability to make contact? Damn.

[ColdPint]

Speaking of Moreno, does anyone have insight on timelines for his return to the lineup?

[Grant77]

Berrios' value is pretty well known, established, and projectable. He will be good for the next 1.35 seasons but not a true Ace.

 

The value of Martin and SWR is not as easy to peg. They could bust, or be superstars. Teams will have varying evaluations too.

 

At the time the trade was announced the cost seemed like a massive overpay for Berrios based on precedent. Martin was considered a top 20 prospect (based on offseason lists) and SWR was considered a top 50 or so prospect. That's a huge price for 1.35 seasons of a good but not elite starter. Marcus Stroman is a comparable pitcher and he was traded for substantially less. Historically teams just have not given up prospects of Martin's caliber unless they were getting back a massive star under control, or something like that.

 

With the above in mind one of two possibilities has to be true:

 

1. The Blue Jays overpaid massively for Berrios.

2. The public perception of Martin and/or SWR was significantly too high. They were overvalued by fans and public prospectors, but not by MLB teams who have more info.

 

So it's entirely fair to go looking for what is wrong with Martin at this point. It's not just about trying to justify a trade as a biased fan. It's more like trying to make sense of it all. Because if Toronto thinks Austin Martin has any reasonable chance of being Alex Bregman they are 100% not doing this trade.

 

3. Prices for pitching were far higher this season and we paid closer to market value for Berrios than one would have expected at the beginning of the season.

 

4. The Blue Jay's value Berrios more than your average fan and expect more from him than we have seen with the Twins.

 

All 4 of these things could be true to some extent.

[metafour]

Sem Robberse was promoted to Vancouver.

[metafour]

Finally some dope on Samad Taylor:

 

John: Are you a believer in Samad Taylor? The power has kind of come out of nowhere.

 

Keith Law: He’s a real prospect. Possible regular.

[Spanky99]

BA top 100 update.

 

1. Adley Rutschman

2. Julio Rodriguez

3. Bobby Witt Jr.

4. Spencer Torkelson

5. Riley Greene

6. Marco Luciano

7. CJ Abrams

8. Noelvi Marte

9. Grayson Rodriguez

10. Gabriel Moreno

11. George Kirby

12. Shane Baz

13. Keibert Ruiz

14. Luis Patiño

15. Francisco Alvarez

16. Jose Barrero

17. Nick Lodolo

18. Austin Martin

19. Joey Bart

20. Triston Casas

 

51. Nate Pearson

54. Orelvis Martinez

77. Jordan Groshans

79. Alejandro Kirk

 

Graduated: Alek Manoah (prev #12)

 

Could you post it all please... *ducks and hides*

[Benito]

Berrios' "stuff" might compare to Lynn's but those other names would all be clearly above. And of course that means prime Scherzer/Verlander, not current versions.

 

They are right now. But I think that was what Ray was getting at, that some of them took a jump in stuff around 27/28 years old. Bauer as example took a jump around that age. Prior to that, Berrios numbers have been better in comparison. This is not to say Berrios will take a similar jump in stuff and become a true ace like those guys, but it's not unreasonable to think he could.

[Benito]

I'm also reasonably confident we will get an extension done with Berrios this offseason. With the amount of stress this front office puts on process, they had to have reached out to Berrios' agent to get a pulse on what his ballpark number is and had to have been comfortable with it. They're banking on him loving the city, the team, and working with Pete Walker. We usually have trouble getting free agents here, but not so much when its retaining players that are already here. More players love playing in Toronto more often than not.

 

I would like to think this team is much more attractive to free agents then in past years. Jays are developing the reputation of a potential perennial contender, with a young core, and proven willingness to spend in FA and add at the trade deadline. I genuinely feel FAs will see Toronto as an attractive destination that can meet their financial requirements, in addition to giving them an opportunity to be part of a contending team for years to come.

[Krylian]

I would like to think this team is much more attractive to free agents then in past years. Jays are developing the reputation of a potential perennial contender, with a young core, and proven willingness to spend in FA and add at the trade deadline. I genuinely feel FAs will see Toronto as an attractive destination that can meet their financial requirements, in addition to giving them an opportunity to be part of a contending team for years to come.

 

It's a nice sentiment. I hope you're right. I worry you're wrong.