Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[L54]

I have never followed college baseball ... Does anyone know why they still use metal bats?

 

Financial reasons I’m sure. A lot cheaper to buy aluminum that’ll last all year vs wood. Baseball isn’t a revenue stream for most of them like football or basketball.

[dauv]

I have a question, why is it that most mock drafts including BA had Ausitn Martin as the 2nd best prospect and yet do not include him on their top 100. Is it because he hasn't sign yet? Just curious

[P2F]

I have a question, why is it that most mock drafts including BA had Ausitn Martin as the 2nd best prospect and yet do not include him on their top 100. Is it because he hasn't sign yet? Just curious

 

He's included on every list that I have seen so far. Which one(s) is he not included on?

[dauv]

sorry was just reading the posts above (Torkelson #11, Acy #39 etc...) and I didn't see his name so figured he wasn't on the list. My appologies

[Jimcanuck]

sorry was just reading the posts above (Torkelson #11, Acy #39 etc...) and I didn't see his name so figured he wasn't on the list. My appologies

 

He's slotted into #16

 

BA putting 12 new draftees into the top 100 is a bit much. Half these guys could fall off in two years.

[Orgfiller]

Cheers

 

Holy f*** SWR gets a 70 control grade with a good fastball and three other average+ pitches as a 19 year old. This needs to be talked about more. What a steal for the FO.

[Krylian]

Holy f*** SWR gets a 70 control grade with a good fastball and three other average+ pitches as a 19 year old. This needs to be talked about more. What a steal for the FO.

 

First things first!

 

Is it control, or is it command?

[BlueRocky]

Holy f*** SWR gets a 70 control grade with a good fastball and three other average+ pitches as a 19 year old. This needs to be talked about more. What a steal for the FO.

 

His rank is similar to Max Meyer, the #3 overall pick, which is pretty crazy. And we got SWR and Kay for 1.5 years of Stroman. And the bulk of that club control was lost to COVID. Looking back now, that trade was a huge win for the Blue Jays.

 

Skinny: A foot injury ended Groshans’ season after 23 games last year, but he’s expected to be ready for the start of spring training. A gifted hitter with growing power, expect Groshans to rise quickly if he stays healthy.

Groshans is already rank 31... and they expect him to rise quickly if he stays healthy.

 

Right now, they already put him in the range of Bobby Witt jr (26), Alec Bohm (30), Alex Kirilloff (33), Andrew Vaughn (32), and Joey Bart (34).

[Jimcanuck]

Holy f*** SWR gets a 70 control grade with a good fastball and three other average+ pitches as a 19 year old. This needs to be talked about more. What a steal for the FO.

 

No question, great trade. The Mets effectively get ~1 season from Stroman, and maybe not even that, if this covid s*** kills off this season early.

 

The only negative I have heard about SWR is someone opined he is maxed out physically with less upside remaining than other 19 yr olds. Of course, that's not going to stop him from sharpening the secondaries over the next few years.

[P2F]

Holy f*** SWR gets a 70 control grade with a good fastball and three other average+ pitches as a 19 year old. This needs to be talked about more. What a steal for the FO.

 

Yeah, but they didn't get that highly coveted Tertiary Piece™!!!!

[BlueRocky]

The only negative I have heard about SWR is someone opined he is maxed out physically with less upside remaining than other 19 yr olds. Of course, that's not going to stop him from sharpening the secondaries over the next few years.

 

He’s 6-3, 210 lbs and dominated A+ at 18 years old. I watched a couple of his games last year, he doesn't blow people away with his stuff, but understand a lot of young pitchers don’t settle into their velos that early. Pitchers his age typically just graduated from HS and throw 88-90.

 

He’s got an easy delivery and mixes in 5 pitches: 4-seamer that touches mid-90s, a 2-seamer with good movement that sits 90-93, a good slider that sometimes categorizes as a cutter, a curveball, and a changeup. The pitchability is uncanny for an 18 year old that dominated in A/A+ last season.

 

He’s already flashed impressive control on his FB, but the secondaries are still developing and none are truly wipeout offerings just yet. But keep in mind he’s been pitching to experienced hitters 4 years older.

 

SWR should’ve spent time in both A+ and AA this year, I hope the cancelled milb season doesn’t stunt his development.

Edited June 27, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Boxcar]

Yeah, but they didn't get that highly coveted Tertiary Piece™!!!!

 

You f*** off

[P2F]

You f*** off

 

Okay.

[max silver]

He’s 6-3, 210 lbs and dominated A+ at 18 years old. I watched a couple of his games last year, he doesn't blow people away with his stuff, but understand a lot of young pitchers don’t settle into their velos that early. Pitchers his age typically just graduated from HS and throw 88-90.

 

He’s got an easy delivery and mixes in 5 pitches: 4-seamer that touches mid-90s, a 2-seamer with good movement that sits 90-93, a good slider that sometimes categorizes as a cutter, a curveball, and a changeup. The pitchability is uncanny for an 18 year old that dominated in A/A+ last season.

 

He’s already flashed impressive control on his FB, but the secondaries are still developing and none are truly wipeout offerings just yet. But keep in mind he’s been pitching to experienced hitters 4 years older.

 

SWR should’ve spent time in both A+ and AA this year, I hope the cancelled milb season doesn’t stunt his development.

 

How would you compare him with Eric Pardinho in terms of raw stuff and pitchability?

[BlueRocky]

Simeon is a good head taller than Pardinho, if not more and he’s got an athletic build, the frames are entirely different. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Simeon touch upper-90 velo as he moves up the minors, he’s already touched 97 on his 4-seamer. The stuff is more electric.

 

It’s difficult to judge Pardinho, he was the youngest pitcher in MWL last season while pitching with a strained elbow ligament and also had lower back issues end of the year. He went for elbow surgery back in Feb and it’ll be interesting to see how his stuff plays when he returns.

 

The velocity wasn’t there when he pitched for Lansing, often sat 88-91 as opposed to the 91-95 people saw in the past. But his breaking balls were very polished. He flashed a filthy changeup along with a slider and curveball with depth that he can pitch in any count. His pitchability is real, not just a “giddy up” curveball or a “show me” slider, he commands all pitches for strikes and can get guys out with any pitch. He’ll be extremely effective if his velo ticks back up when healthy. Pardinho is poised on the mound pitching against much older competition and shows advanced feel for pitching. Watching him play with Gabriel Moreno last season was a blast. I’m higher on him than most people and hope he’ll return guns blazing in the minors next year.

 

Guys I cannot emphasize enough. DO NOT SLEEP on Adam Kloffenstein. If he went to college and was draft eligible 2021-2022, he’d easily be a top 20 pick in my opinion, based on his growth physically and on the mound while pitching for the Canadians last season.

Edited June 28, 2020 by BlueRocky

[max silver]

Simeon is a good head taller than Pardinho, if not more and he’s got an athletic build, the frames are entirely different. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Simeon touch upper-90 velo as he moves up the minors, he’s already touched 97 on his 4-seamer. The stuff is more electric.

 

It’s difficult to judge Pardinho, he was the youngest pitcher in MWL last season while pitching with a strained elbow ligament and also had lower back issues end of the year. He went for elbow surgery back in Feb and it’ll be interesting to see how his stuff plays when he returns.

 

The velocity wasn’t there when he pitched for Lansing, often sat 88-91 as opposed to the 91-95 people saw in the past. But his breaking balls were very polished. He flashed a filthy changeup along with a slider and curveball with depth that he can pitch in any count. His pitchability is real, not just a “giddy up” curveball or a “show me” slider, he commands all pitches for strikes and can get guys out with any pitch. He’ll be extremely effective if his velo ticks back up when healthy. Pardinho is poised on the mound pitching against much older competition and shows advanced feel for pitching. Watching him play with Gabriel Moreno last season was a blast. I’m higher on him than most people and hope he’ll return guns blazing in the minors next year.

 

Guys I cannot emphasize enough. DO NOT SLEEP on Adam Kloffenstein. If he went to college and was draft eligible 2021-2022, he’d easily be a top 20 pick in my opinion, based on his growth physically and on the mound while pitching for the Canadians last season.

 

The Jays system is flush with really interesting pitching prospects right now, the current front office has done an awesome job stockpiling high ceiling young arms. What are your thoughts on Kendall Williams?

[BlueRocky]

Kendall is still very far away, I personally haven’t watched him pitch so I only know about his reports. If he gets up to Vancouver or Lansing we’ll learn more about his progress.

 

That said the Jays are very high on him, as they should. He’s really tall at 6-6 and has been working on building his frame. He came from an elite program at IMG Academy, impressed at PG Nationals, and was a Vanderbilt commit. That itself should say something about the caliber of talent.

 

There’s five pitches in his arsenal already: 4sfb, 2sfb, CB, SL, CU. He’s got a good curveball, but he’s been working on the slider and changeup. In his own opinion he thinks his changeup is his best secondary and comfortable throwing it at any count. Developing the slider has been a focus since we drafted him. Fastball has touched 96, typically sits lower 90s. FB spin rate is about average. CB is documented @ 2500rpm. Velo not fully peaked, stuff is still raw, he’s been working on strength and building more velo. The tools are there to become a premium pitcher, it’s too far to tell if he can reach that potential until we see him in full season, larger samples, and against better hitters.

Edited June 28, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Ryu In My House]

Is anyone worried about signing Martin? I get the feeling that Boras wants him to sign an amount like the first overall, which may force the Jays to give up a draft pick next year. Anyway, I have heard nothing. Has anyone else?

[metafour]

Is anyone worried about signing Martin? I get the feeling that Boras wants him to sign an amount like the first overall, which may force the Jays to give up a draft pick next year. Anyway, I have heard nothing. Has anyone else?

 

If he wants him to sign to an amount like the first overall, he should have gone first overall. He didn't.

 

I'm not "worried" because there isn't any real incentive for him to not sign for what will ultimately be an over-slot offer somewhere in the slot value of 3rd overall. We will not forfeit draft picks to sign him.

[Slade]

Is anyone worried about signing Martin? I get the feeling that Boras wants him to sign an amount like the first overall, which may force the Jays to give up a draft pick next year. Anyway, I have heard nothing. Has anyone else?

 

No. He's not passing up guaranteed $6,180,700, he'll sign as late as possible to see how much more they can squeeze out of the Jays. I don't think any of Boras's clients have signed yet.

[Abomination]

No. He's not passing up guaranteed $6,180,700, he'll sign as late as possible to see how much more they can squeeze out of the Jays. I don't think any of Boras's clients have signed yet.

 

The Jays will probably sign everyone else first, then offer whatever is left without giving up a pick as a take it or leave it offer.

[BlueRocky]

It all depends on what Nick Frasso signs for. If he signs full slot, there’s only a max @6.9 M for Austin Martin. There’s nothing they can do at that point. If Frasso signs slight underslot they could possibly offer 7.0-7.2 M, I have a hard time seeing Frasso sign for peanuts like Zach Britton, as he was seen close to a 1st round talent just a few months ago.

 

If we fail to sign Frasso entirely, that pool money evaporates, which means Martin still only can get 6.9 M, which is @700K over-slot and almost #3 money. I don’t see him turning that down.

 

Delaying a year of service time and arbitration to go back to college and get drafted by the Tigers/Orioles again is pretty detrimental in the big picture. Hitting free agency one year earlier for his 21-yr old client holds way more value to Boras Corp than any 100-300K extra you can throw in Martin’s direction. Don’t forget no matter how much his bonus is, he only gets 100K this year. 50% of the rest (3.4 M) in 2021, and the remaining in 2022.

Edited June 29, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Ehjays]

Most of the top draft teams would have touched base with his camp before the draft to get an idea of what they wanted , also I don't even think the Jays are throwing a maximum offer at him yet as well,

[max silver]

It all depends on what Nick Frasso signs for. If he signs full slot, there’s only a max @6.9 M for Austin Martin. There’s nothing they can do at that point. If Frasso signs slight underslot they could possibly offer 7.0-7.2 M, I have a hard time seeing Frasso sign for peanuts like Zach Britton, as he was seen close to a 1st round talent just a few months ago.

 

If we fail to sign Frasso entirely, that pool money evaporates, which means Martin still only can get 6.9 M, which is @700K over-slot and almost #3 money. I don’t see him turning that down.

 

Delaying a year of service time and arbitration to go back to college and get drafted by the Tigers/Orioles again is pretty detrimental in the big picture. Hitting free agency one year earlier for his 21-yr old client holds way more value to Boras Corp than any 100-300K extra you can throw in Martin’s direction. Don’t forget no matter how much his bonus is, he only gets 100K this year. 50% of the rest (3.4 M) in 2021, and the remaining in 2022.

 

The Jays have plenty to offer a young draftee as well, the organization is emerging as leaders in innovative training and coaching techniques, have a lot of very high end young talent, and are getting closer and closer to contention. The Jays have finally started to thaw out the frosty relationship with Boras after years of doing no business together, so it seems like it would be short sighted for Boras to throw all of this away over a few hundred thousand dollars.

[L54]

Boys Austin Martin isn't turning down 6.9M to enter the 2021 draft as a senior

[Boxcar]

Boys Austin Martin isn't turning down 6.9M to enter the 2021 draft as a senior

 

And take the chance of being drafted by Baltimore

[L54]

And take the chance of being drafted by Baltimore

 

He already fought them off once, no chance he's risking that again

[Ryu In My House]

It all depends on what Nick Frasso signs for. If he signs full slot, there’s only a max @6.9 M for Austin Martin. There’s nothing they can do at that point. If Frasso signs slight underslot they could possibly offer 7.0-7.2 M, I have a hard time seeing Frasso sign for peanuts like Zach Britton, as he was seen close to a 1st round talent just a few months ago.

 

If we fail to sign Frasso entirely, that pool money evaporates, which means Martin still only can get 6.9 M, which is @700K over-slot and almost #3 money. I don’t see him turning that down.

 

Delaying a year of service time and arbitration to go back to college and get drafted by the Tigers/Orioles again is pretty detrimental in the big picture. Hitting free agency one year earlier for his 21-yr old client holds way more value to Boras Corp than any 100-300K extra you can throw in Martin’s direction. Don’t forget no matter how much his bonus is, he only gets 100K this year. 50% of the rest (3.4 M) in 2021, and the remaining in 2022.

 

Thanks for this. Everything you say makes sense. It may not mean anything, but that fact that the Jays signed Ryu, a Boras client, and the fact that the Jays are treating their minor league players very well may actually count for something, too.

[Ray]

Martin could be in the majors playing CF for us by next season and starting his service time clock. That's worth more than the extra $1M he would get if he risks not signing.

[Ray]

Nice article on Joey Murray by Arden Zwelling: https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/joey-murray-quietly-became-key-pitching-prospect-blue-jays/