Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Ray]

Fangraphs updated their Top 100 and team prospect rankings with the 2020 draftees.

 

- Martin is ranked #52 in the Top 100 and becomes our 2nd best prospect behind Pearson

- Jays system now has 5 top 100 prospects: Pearson #8, Martin #52, Woods-Richardson #80, Groshans #85, Martinez #95

- Torkelson is ranked #38 overall, Asa Lacy is ranked 49th. Only two draftees ahead of Martin. Kjersted comes in at #116.

[BlueRocky]

It seems like Pipeline, Fangraphs, and BA have slightly different perspectives of the Jays farm system, but all have been pretty positive and trending upwards. You can kinda put Keith Law and The Athletic in this group as well, while ESPN is probably closer to Pipeline, though Kiley McDaniels probably shares some ideas with his former group at Fangraphs.

 

MLB Pipeline thinks they’re top heavy and last I checked, ranks the farm system in the late-teens or early 20s out of 30, post-Bichette graduation.

 

Fangraphs thinks they’re deep and puts more weight on the talent brewing in the lower minors, which is true. But they’re more forward thinking and have projected guys like Jansen, Kirk, and Martinez higher than other publications before they’re more universally recognized. They were also one of the first to really jump on Nate Pearson.

 

Baseball America is somewhere in the middle and ranks them top 10 farm, pre-Martin. They’re also higher on Martin than #52 I think based on what I read from them, probably closer to 25-40. They do less projecting than Fangraphs and look more at current tools and latest results, but it’s understandable as their list is a lot more dynamic than the other two and changes constantly (with about 4-5 major updates every year to the overall rankings). I think BA was the first one to really pump the tires on Groshans after seeing him perform in Lansing at his age. They were also very high on Simeon Woods-Richardson after he dominated A/A+ at his age.

Edited June 19, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Jimcanuck]

It seems like Pipeline, Fangraphs, and BA have slightly different perspectives of the Jays farm system, but all have been pretty positive and trending upwards. You can kinda put Keith Law and The Athletic in this group as well, while ESPN is probably closer to Pipeline, though Kiley McDaniels probably shares some ideas with his former group at Fangraphs.

 

MLB Pipeline thinks they’re top heavy and last I checked, ranks the farm system in the late-teens or early 20s out of 30, post-Bichette graduation.

 

Fangraphs thinks they’re deep and puts more weight on the talent brewing in the lower minors, which is true. But they’re more forward thinking and have projected guys like Jansen, Kirk, and Martinez higher than other publications before they’re more universally recognized. They were also one of the first to really jump on Nate Pearson.

 

Baseball America is somewhere in the middle and ranks them top 10 farm, pre-Martin. They’re also higher on Martin than #52 I think based on what I read from them, probably closer to 25-40. They do less projecting than Fangraphs and look more at current tools and latest results, but it’s understandable as their list is a lot more dynamic than the other two and changes constantly (with about 4-5 major updates every year to the overall rankings). I think BA was the first one to really pump the tires on Groshans after seeing him perform in Lansing at his age. They were also very high on Simeon Woods-Richardson after he dominated A/A+ at his age.

 

Based on how predictions match outcomes, I'm finding BA #1 and Fangraphs #1. Who knows about FG going forward with Kiley gone.

[Spanky__99]

Huh... Jays Org/farm rank was 6th in June?

[BlueRocky]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-farm-system-rankings

#16 here back in March.. another article not too long ago had us @19-21 but I don’t remember where.

 

https://theathletic.com/1641139/2020/03/02/keith-laws-farm-system-rankings-for-all-30-mlb-teams/

keith law ranked us 7th pre-draft

Edited June 23, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Ray]

For anyone interested, Shane Farrell was on the Keith Law podcast this past week going over the Jays 2020 draft haul: https://theathletic.com/podcast/168-the-keith-law-show/

[Slade]

For anyone interested, Shane Farrell was on the Keith Law podcast this past week going over the Jays 2020 draft haul: https://theathletic.com/podcast/168-the-keith-law-show/

 

Also on Spotify if you don't have an athletic sub.

 

[BlueRocky]

 

2020 Draft Picks:

#11 - Spencer Torkelson

#16 - Austin Martin

#39 - Asa Lacy

#56 - Emerson Hancock

#59 - Nick Gonzales

#61 - Max Meyer

#75 - Zac Veen

#80 - Garrett Mitchell

#83 - Reid Detmers

#84 - Austin Hendrick

#98 - Robert Hassell

#99 - Heston Kjerstad

 

Blue Jays:

#7 - Nate Pearson

#16 - Austin Martin

#31 - Jordan Groshans

#67 - Simeon Woods-Richardson

 

16

Austin Martin

Blue Jays

SS

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: NA

Tools: Hit: 70 | Power: 55 | Run: 55 | Fielding: 55 | Arm: 45

2019 Average Exit Velo: NA

 

Skinny: Martin was the No. 2 talent on our ranking of the best available draft prospects, so it was somewhat astonishing to see him slide all the way to No. 5, where the Blue Jays were happy to snap him up. The Blue Jays announced Martin as a shortstop, but he has a variety of potential defensive outcomes. If he has to go to third base, he could provide a defensive upgrade to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whose bat will more than play at first base. He also could fit in the outfield as well, and he spent time in center field at Vanderbilt and with Team USA. Regardless of his defensive home, Martin instantly becomes the Jays’ best offensive prospect and gives the system a fantastic 1-2 punch with fireballing righthander Nate Pearson at the top of their system.

Edited June 25, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Ray]

 

2020 Draft Picks:

#11 Spencer Torkelson

#39 - Asa Lacy

#56 - Emerson Hancock

#59 - Nick Gonzales

#61 - Max Meyer

#75 - Zac Veen

#80 - Garrett Mitchell

#83 - Reid Detmers

#84 - Austin Hendrick

#98 - Robert Hassell

#99 - Heston Kjerstad

 

Blue Jays:

#7 - Nate Pearson

#16 - Austin Martin

#31 - Jordan Groshans

#67 - Simeon Woods-Richardson

 

Nice to see this farm system still be stocked despite graduating Bo, Vlad and Jansen just in the last year.

[BlueRocky]

And if anyone is wondering about Martin’s exit velos:

 

Did you guys see that Fangraphs has listed Austin Martin's AVG EV at 93 MPH? That would put him 23rd in all of MLB last season, basically on par with Yordan Alvarez at 92.8, Jose Abreu at 92.9, Matt Olson and Josh Bell at 93.2, and Jorge Soler at 93.3. f***ing LOL Orioles!

 

Edit: Martin apparently hits the ball harder on average than anyone in FG's Top 100.

[max silver]

And if anyone is wondering about Martin’s exit velos:

 

How do the modern aluminum bats being used by college players tend to compare with wooden bats for exit velocities? I'm just wondering if this is an apples to apples comparison.

[Grant77]

How do the modern aluminum bats being used by college players tend to compare with wooden bats for exit velocities? I'm just wondering if this is an apples to apples comparison.

 

You make an excellent point. Exit velocities for aluminium bats are significantly higher. I'll want to see some minor league data before I start comparing Martin to current major league players.

[z3r0s]

You make an excellent point. Exit velocities for aluminium bats are significantly higher. I'll want to see some minor league data before I start comparing Martin to current major league players.

 

Totally. I also can't fathom putting these guys so far up the list. Slow down a minute and see what they do against other professional players.

[Brownie19]

You make an excellent point. Exit velocities for aluminium bats are significantly higher. I'll want to see some minor league data before I start comparing Martin to current major league players.

 

Is this true?

 

I thought BBCOR bats were designed to mimic wood bats.

[Grant77]

There are a lot of studies out there that all seem to show higher exit velocity from aluminium bats. I believe the bat used in this study was BBCOR (Easton S1), but it was a few years ago.

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://digitalcommons.linfield.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi%3Farticle%3D1011%26context%3Dphysstud_theses&ved=2ahUKEwidmKLn_ZrqAhWCtJ4KHduCAAQQFjATegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw0xyoUc4a6I9pKDc7bOYX-U&cshid=1593020182264

[Ray]

And if anyone is wondering about Martin’s exit velos:

 

Bit of a misnomer since they only have Martin's exit velocities out of any college hitter from this draft.

 

I'd be interested to know Torkelson's/Kjerstad's exit velocity numbers. I would imagine both max and average are higher.

[Spanky__99]

Is this true?

 

I thought BBCOR bats were designed to mimic wood bats.

 

You are correct, they even break as easy.

[Brownie19]

There are a lot of studies out there that all seem to show higher exit velocity from aluminium bats. I believe the bat used in this study was BBCOR (Easton S1), but it was a few years ago.

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://digitalcommons.linfield.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi%3Farticle%3D1011%26context%3Dphysstud_theses&ved=2ahUKEwidmKLn_ZrqAhWCtJ4KHduCAAQQFjATegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw0xyoUc4a6I9pKDc7bOYX-U&cshid=1593020182264

 

Interesting, although it's 6 years ago, so this may have changed some.

[Grant77]

Interesting, although it's 6 years ago, so this may have changed some.

 

You may be right, I can't really say. However, I think there is enough to merit a bit of skepticism when comparing his exit velocities to big leaguers.

[TheHurl]

This guy explains the performance difference pretty well. BBCOR, bigger sweet spot, more controlled swing weight.

 

[BlueRocky]

Draft prospect report and tools:

11

Spencer Torkelson

Tigers 3B

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: NA

Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 80 | Run: 40 | Fielding: 55 | Arm: 50

2019 Average Exit Velo: NA

 

Skinny: Torkelson was long expected to be the Tigers’ pick at the top of the draft. About the only surprise was when they announced him as a third baseman. A first baseman throughout his career at Arizona State, Torkelson’s value will increase even further if he proves adept enough at the corner. No matter which corner-infield spot he settles at, Torkelson’s polished hit tool and massive power provide the bulk of his power. In a system already chock full of pitching, Torkelson adds a crown jewel to the Tigers’ offensive stash.

 

39

Asa Lacy

Royals LHP

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: NA

Tools: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 55

2019 Average Fastball Velo: NA

 

Skinny: The top arm in the class, Lacy joins the Royals’ bushel of high-end college pitching talent. The list already includes Top 100 prospects Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar, as well other excellent prospects like Brady Singer, Austin Cox and Jonathan Bowlan. Lacy was excellent for three seasons at Texas A&M and turned in a fine summer with USA Baseball’s 2019 Collegiate National Team as well. Interestingly, Lacy’s pitch grades match exactly with those of Padres top prospect MacKenzie Gore. The only difference on their cards is a half-grade control advantage for Gore.

 

56

Emerson Hancock

Mariners RHP

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: NA

Tools: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 60

2019 Average Fastball Velo: NA

 

Skinny: BA ranked Hancock as the second-best pitcher available in the draft on the strength of two potentially plus pitches in his fastball and changeup, which he accentuated with excellent control. There are elements to his game he’ll need to improve—the Mariners would like to see his fastball tweaked to help it garner more swings and misses, especially up in the zone—but all the elements are there to give Hancock the ceiling of a No. 3 starter.

 

59

Nick Gonzales

Pirates SS

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: NA

Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 55 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 50

2019 Average Exit Velo: NA

 

Skinny: Over his career at New Mexico State, Gonzales proved himself as one of the best hitters available in this year’s class. Scouting directors voted Gonzales’ hit tool as the third-best among the college class, just behind Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin. That’s impressive for anyone, but it especially stands out for a player like Gonzales, who was a walk-on in college. Gonzales converted to shortstop this season to increase his draft value, though he didn’t get much time at the position before the coronavirus pandemic ended the season. He’ll also face questions as to how much his offensive numbers were playing under New Mexico State’s hitter-friendly conditions.

 

61

Max Meyer

Marlins RHP

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: NA

Tools: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 70 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50

2019 Average Fastball Velo: NA

 

Skinny: Armed with a blend of athleticism and explosiveness, Meyer became the first pitcher taken in 2020. His background as a position player, plus his stature and electric fastball help him compare favorably to Sixto Sanchez, the Marlins’ top prospect. Meyer’s slider is better than any of Sanchez’s offspeed pitches, however, and ranked as the best breaking pitch available in the draft. Meyer has just one full season as starter (though he was on his way to a second before the coronavirus pandemic ended Meyer’s junior season), so he might move a little more slowly than the typical top-tier college arm. If he successfully develops into a starter, the Marlins might have the coup of the draft. If not, they have a potentially dynamic weapon for the back of their bullpen.

 

75

Zac Veen

Rockies OF

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: NA

Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 45 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 55

2019 Average Exit Velo: NA

 

Skinny: The best high school bat in the class, Veen began showing hints of prodigious power as a junior. A particular highlight came when he homered off of Matt Allan, whom the Mets made their first-round selection later that summer. Before the season, scouting directors voted Veen’s hitting and power tools among the top five available in the high school class. His fringy speed might eventually push him off center field, but he should be a solid defender in a corner and has enough arm and bat to profile in right field.

80

Garrett Mitchell

Brewers OF

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: NA

Tools: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 80 | Fielding: 60 | Arm: 60

2019 Average Exit Velo: NA

 

Skinny: The biggest question surrounding Mitchell involved how much his Type 1 diabetes would affect his career. His tool set was never a question. The UCLA product has five tools that grade as above-average or better. Just eight other hitters on the Top 100 can say the same, and all are among the game’s top 50 prospects. If Mitchell can put questions about his health behind him—he played in 77 of the Bruins’ 78 games over the past two seasons—the Brewers may have gotten a steal when they picked him at No. 20 overall.

83

Reid Detmers

Angels LHP

VIDEO

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: NA

Tools: Fastball: 45 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 45 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 60

2019 Average Fastball Velo: NA

 

Skinny: Detmers was possibly the most polished starting pitching prospect available in the draft. His fastball doesn’t wow with its velocity, though he can get hitters to swing through it thanks to excellent late life and deception in his delivery. He also relentlessly pounds the zone with all four of his pitches, the best of which is a snapdragon curveball that he can use to get hitters to chase or shorten to land for strikes. Once the big leagues begin again, Detmers could move fairly quickly through the minors on his way to Los Angeles.

84

Austin Hendrick

Reds OF

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: NA

Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 70 | Run: 45 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 60

2019 Average Exit Velo: NA

 

Skinny: Quite simply, Hendrick has the potential to be an offensive monster. Scouting directors rated him as the second-best hitter in the 2020 high school class and the best power prospect as well. There are questions about Hendrick’s swing-and-miss and whether the competition he faced as a high schooler in Pennsylvania could have somewhat inflated his offensive output. Hendrick also has excellent arm strength that would play well in right field.

 

98

Robert Hassell

Padres OF

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: NA

Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 55 | Fielding: 55 | Arm: 55

2019 Average Exit Velo: NA

 

Skinny: The Padres love toolsy, youthful players, and they found one in Hassell, whom they chose with the eighth overall pick in the 2020 draft. Hassell’s selection is also notable because it came after a run of seven consecutive collegians to open the draft. Gifted with a loose lefthanded swing, Hassell is one of the best pure hitters available in the high school class and has enough speed and arm strength to have a chance to stick in center field. There is somewhat of a split on Hassell’s power potential, but the most optimistic evaluators gave him a chance to reach above-average thump when fully developed. Along with UCLA outfielder Garrett Mitchell, whom the Brewers chose at No. 20 overall, Hassell was one of two hitters available in the class whose tools all project to above-average or better.

 

99

Heston Kjerstad

Orioles OF

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: NA

Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 45 | Fielding: 45 | Arm: 55

2019 Average Exit Velo: NA

 

Skinny: Kjerstad was a bit of a surprise pick at No. 2 overall, but his offensive potential could help validate that selection in the coming years. Kjerstad put together a .331/.412/.563 slash line over two seasons and change (he was hitting .448 when the coronavirus pandemic ended his junior season) in the Southeastern Conference, and added a 1.077 OPS in 14 games with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team over the summer. Kjerstad will likely wind up in left field, where his combination of power and hittability will more than help him profile at the position.

 

If there’s a name you want me to post just let me know.

Edited June 25, 2020 by BlueRocky

[L54]

That’s a haul of guys slotting into the top 100

[BlueRocky]

That’s a haul of guys slotting into the top 100

 

Yeah 12 guys from the draft got slotted on first the update. I think it’s typically 5 to 8 guys only, it does speak to the strength of this class. Even the guys at the back half of that top 100 have serious upside like Veen and Hassell.

 

I still can’t get over the O’s taking Kjerstad and not spending that money in later picks. It didn’t make sense on draft night, it makes even less sense now in hindsight. In the perspective of rankings, it’s like they gave up drafting Julio Rodriguez to save money on Taylor Trammell, and then not even spending that money later in the draft. They believe their models and projections heavily outsmarts the industry’s talent evaluators and projections.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining. It’s a huge stroke of luck for the Blue Jays.

Edited June 24, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Spanky__99]

Yeah 12 guys from the draft got slotted on first the update. I think it’s typically 5 to 8 guys only, it does speak to the strength of this class. Even the guys at the back half of that top 100 have serious upside like Veen and Hassell.

 

I still can’t get over the O’s taking Kjerstad and not spending that money in later picks. It didn’t make sense on draft night, it makes even less sense now in hindsight. In the perspective of rankings, it’s like they gave up drafting Julio Rodriguez to save money on Taylor Trammell, and then not even spending that money later in the draft. They believe their models and projections heavily outsmarts the industry’s talent evaluators and projections.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining. It’s a huge stroke of luck for the Blue Jays.

 

MLB.com say the Orioles were one of the 5 teams that won the draft, I don't get it?

 

Also could you post the other 3 guys in the listing?

[Ray]

Yeah 12 guys from the draft got slotted on first the update. I think it’s typically 5 to 8 guys only, it does speak to the strength of this class. Even the guys at the back half of that top 100 have serious upside like Veen and Hassell.

 

I still can’t get over the O’s taking Kjerstad and not spending that money in later picks. It didn’t make sense on draft night, it makes even less sense now in hindsight. In the perspective of rankings, it’s like they gave up drafting Julio Rodriguez to save money on Taylor Trammell, and then not even spending that money later in the draft. They believe their models and projections heavily outsmarts the industry’s talent evaluators and projections.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining. It’s a huge stroke of luck for the Blue Jays.

 

I think they were banking on Bitsko dropping to them at #30. On paper, Kjerstad + Bitsko is a fantastic haul. One of the best hitters and pitchers in the draft.

 

I quite like Kjerstad, but I'd definitely take Martin over him anyday.

[metafour]

I still can’t get over the O’s taking Kjerstad and not spending that money in later picks. It didn’t make sense on draft night, it makes even less sense now in hindsight. In the perspective of rankings, it’s like they gave up drafting Julio Rodriguez to save money on Taylor Trammell, and then not even spending that money later in the draft. They believe their models and projections heavily outsmarts the industry’s talent evaluators and projections.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining. It’s a huge stroke of luck for the Blue Jays.

 

They did use the money later though.

 

They gave Coby Mayo (4th round) $1.75 million and Carter Baumler (5th round) $1.5 million. Both HS players.

[Boxcar]

Yeah 12 guys from the draft got slotted on first the update. I think it’s typically 5 to 8 guys only, it does speak to the strength of this class. Even the guys at the back half of that top 100 have serious upside like Veen and Hassell.

 

I still can’t get over the O’s taking Kjerstad and not spending that money in later picks. It didn’t make sense on draft night, it makes even less sense now in hindsight. In the perspective of rankings, it’s like they gave up drafting Julio Rodriguez to save money on Taylor Trammell, and then not even spending that money later in the draft. They believe their models and projections heavily outsmarts the industry’s talent evaluators and projections.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining. It’s a huge stroke of luck for the Blue Jays.

 

The fact that the Orioles of all teams think they are smarter than everyone else is truly hilarious.

[BlueRocky]

MLB.com say the Orioles were one of the 5 teams that won the draft, I don't get it?

 

Also could you post the other 3 guys in the listing?

 

 

7

Nate Pearson

Blue Jays RHP

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: 7

Tools: Fastball: 80 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55

2019 Average Fastball Velo: 97

 

Skinny: Pearson’s workload was managed by alternating five- and two-inning starts before July 24, when the restrictions were lifted and he started going deeper into games. He tossed at least five frames in each start after that date to close out the season. Armed with a fastball that touches triple digits, Pearson works with a plus slider and a changeup that has trended positively and projects as plus as well. Pearson has the body and stuff to sit at the front of Toronto’s rotation in the near future.

 

31

Jordan Groshans

Blue Jays SS

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: 37

Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 60

2019 Average Exit Velo: 89

 

Skinny: A foot injury ended Groshans’ season after 23 games last year, but he’s expected to be ready for the start of spring training. A gifted hitter with growing power, expect Groshans to rise quickly if he stays healthy.

 

67

Simeon Woods Richardson

Blue Jays RHP

Notes:

Final 2019 Ranking: Unranked

Tools: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 70

2019 Average Fastball Velo: 93

 

Skinny: One of the prizes received by Toronto in the Marcus Stroman trade, Woods Richardson mixes an intriguing arsenal of four average or better pitches with impeccable control. He’ll pitch all of 2020 as a 19-year-old and could find himself on the verge of making the big leagues by season’s end.

 

Cheers

[max silver]

There are a lot of studies out there that all seem to show higher exit velocity from aluminium bats. I believe the bat used in this study was BBCOR (Easton S1), but it was a few years ago.

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://digitalcommons.linfield.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi%3Farticle%3D1011%26context%3Dphysstud_theses&ved=2ahUKEwidmKLn_ZrqAhWCtJ4KHduCAAQQFjATegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw0xyoUc4a6I9pKDc7bOYX-U&cshid=1593020182264

 

That's a pretty cool study, for those that haven't read the results it found that:

 

-when contacting the sweet spot metal exit velocity outperformed wood by 8.3%

-When missing the sweet spot, the bats performed similarly with metal outperforming wood by only 1.4%.

-Batters were able to contact the sweet spot 57% of the time with the metal bats. This value for wood was over 10% lower at 45%. This correlates to the metal bats having a larger

sweet spot as it is easier to hit.

[Ziggyy108]

That's a pretty cool study, for those that haven't read the results it found that:

 

-when contacting the sweet spot metal exit velocity outperformed wood by 8.3%

-When missing the sweet spot, the bats performed similarly with metal outperforming wood by only 1.4%.

-Batters were able to contact the sweet spot 57% of the time with the metal bats. This value for wood was over 10% lower at 45%. This correlates to the metal bats having a larger

sweet spot as it is easier to hit.

 

I have never followed college baseball ... Does anyone know why they still use metal bats?