Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Spanky__99]

9. Josh Winckowski, RHP

DOB: 6/28/98

Height/Weight: 6’4” / 202 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired:

Previous Ranking(s): N/R

2019 Stats: 2.32 ERA, 3.74 DRA, 73 ⅔ IP, 62 H, 26 BB, 71 K in 13 games for Low-A Lansing; .319 ERA, 3.98 DRA, 53 ⅔ IP, 48 H, 17 BB, 37 K in 11 games for High-A Dunedin

 

The Report: Winckowski has been steadily moving up the organizational ladder since being drafted in 2016, but had a breakout season this year in A-ball. He gets good extension on his heavy fastball, which sits in the mid 90s with late life. The changeup works well off of the heater and is a potential swing-and-miss pitch. Winckowski replicates his arm action well and the pitch shows good arm-side fade. His slider is inconsistent and can lack depth, but has an average projection. Physically, he’s got the classic starter’s build and if the secondaries develop he would profile as an innings eater at the back of the rotation.

 

OFP: 50 / No. 4 starter or setup

 

Variance: High. Needs to get a bit more out of the breaking ball to reach his OFP and hasn’t pitched in the upper minors yet. —Nathan Graham

 

Major league ETA: 2021

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: A low-ceiling pitcher with high risk who’s not ready right now: sign me up! Just kidding. Please do not sign me up. In fact, please remove me from your email list.

 

Is that Boxy's favourite Dynasty Guru Ben Carsley, he writes for BP now?

[jays4life19]

1. Nate Pearson, RHP

DOB: 8/20/1996

Height/Weight: 6’6” / 245 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 28th overall in the 2017 draft from the College of Central Florida JC; signed for $2.4529 million

Previous Ranking(s): #3 (Org), #54 (Top 101)

2019 Stats: 0.86 ERA, 1.59 DRA, 21 IP, 10 H, 3 BB, 35 K in 6 games for High-A Dunedin; 2.59 ERA, 3.16 DRA, 62 ⅔ IP, 41 H, 21 BB, 69 K in 16 games for Double-A New Hampshire; 3.00 ERA, 3.61 DRA, 18 IP, 12 H, 3 BB, 15 K in 3 games for Triple-A Buffalo

 

The Report: There hasn’t been a pitching prospect since Noah Syndergaard that features this combination of overpowering stuff and physical imposition on the mound. After missing nearly the entire 2018 season, Pearson eclipsed the 100-inning mark for the first time in his career across three separate levels. It all starts with a top-of-the scale fastball that routinely touched triple-digits. Once the batter starts to cheat to catch up with 100+, he does a good job of reading swings and switching to the “slow” stuff. With the fastball having all the makings of a 70+ grade, his secondaries don’t have to be perfect to be effective. His slider has very good late bite in the mid-to-upper 80s, while the changeup is very firm and still a work-in-progress. His power curveball comes from a tough release point, but is inconsistent,

 

The 2019 season couldn’t have gone better for Pearson, whose innings were heavily monitored until the last month of the season. He proved he could ramp up his workload and stay healthy—even though previous injuries were more of the freak kind—and the stuff he displayed multiple times through the order put to bed the idea that a move to the bullpen was imminent. The next step is to continue working on his secondary pitches in 2020. There is effort to the delivery that could be cut down, but the overall physicality and strength of Pearson gives the appearance of a future workhorse in the top half of a rotation.

 

OFP: 70 / Front-of-the-rotation starter or elite closer

 

Variance: Medium. The stuff could play in the majors now, but there is always inherent risk with guys who throw as hard as Pearson. —Keanan Lamb

 

Major league ETA: 2020. However, a non-competitive season for the Blue Jays may lead to service time games.

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Normally this would be the part of the program where I warn you against investing in fantasy pitching prospects, but Pearson is one of my dudes, and I’m in love. Yes, the risk is high, but Pearson offsets it by providing sky-high potential as well. It’s all but a lock that Pearson will miss more than a bat per inning in whatever role he occupies, and despite his injury history, Pearson has the frame and athleticism required to log innings. If it all breaks right, we’re looking at a bona fide SP1 who notches 200-plus Ks in 180-plus innings. But even a more moderate outcome should see Pearson rack up a ton of strikeouts. Sometimes you gotta jump in headfirst: I have Pearson as a top-25 dynasty prospect.

 

2. Jordan Groshans, SS

DOB: 11/10/1999

Height/Weight: 6’3” / 205 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 12th overall in the 2018 draft from Magnolia HS (Magnolia, TX); signed for $3.4 million

Previous Ranking(s): #9 (Org)

2019 Stats: .337/.427/.482, 2 HR, 1 SB in 23 games for Low-A Lansing

 

The Report: A foot injury limited Groshans to 23 games in the Midwest League this season. Prior to going down, he was on his way to a breakout season slashing .337/.427/.482 in 83 at-bats. Big and strong, Groshans projects as a plus bat with above-average contact ability and power. He has a quick trigger at the plate that allows him to catch up to velocity and the power plays in-game to all fields. The Jays will continue to give him reps at shortstop, where he’s average as a defender, but his defensive future is likely at third. He has the arm strength and instincts to be solid at the hot corner.

 

There wasn’t much time to catch Groshans in action this year but when he was on the field it was easy to forget he was a teenager in his first full professional season. Rather, he looked more like a polished, college bat. And he’s already showing the kind of hit/power combo you’d look for in a middle-of-the-order hitter.

 

OFP: 60 / First-division infielder somewhere on the left side

 

Variance: High. Groshans has fewer than 100 games under his belt and is likely to begin 2020 back in Low-A. He’ll need to prove that he can hit against more advanced pitching, and that foot issues won’t be a recurring problem in the pros. —Nathan Graham

 

Major league ETA: 2022

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: The Blue Jays start off their list with two personal favorites of mine. I don’t believe in Groshans’ ability to stick at short, but I like pretty much everything else about the package, and the Jays have a strong track record when it comes to developing this type of talent. He got a ton of buzz last year so he’s unlikely to be available in deeper dynasty leagues, but if you play in a shallower format or your leaguemates were asleep, now is the time to buy. He’s already a very legitimate top-101 candidate.

 

3. Alek Manoah, RHP

DOB: 1/9/1998

Height/Weight: 6’6” / 260 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 11th overall in the 2019 draft from West Virginia University; signed for $4,547,500.

Previous Ranking(s): N/R

2019 Stats: 2.65 ERA, 3.15 DRA, 17 IP, 12 H, 5 BB, 27 K in 6 games for Short-Season Vancouver

 

The Report: You might be able to drop Manoah in a big league pen right now on the strength of his fastball/slider combo. The fastball sits mid 90s and routinely bumps higher in short bursts. He also gets extension from his height and stride, so the pitch gets on batters in a hurry and makes for an uncomfortable experience in the box. You can’t sit fastball here either, as Manoah’s slider was one of the better breaking balls in the NCAA, a mid-80s two-plane beast. It should easily end up plus and that might even be a grade light when the smoke clears. His change remains a work-in-progress, with the usual caveat that he hasn’t needed even an average one as an amateur.

 

Manoah is a large human and can struggle with his command at times due to his size and arm action. The delivery will need to be cleaned up some to keep him as a starter long term, as will the command and changeup. Hmm, I think this might officially be our first true backend Top 101, mid-rotation starter or late inning reliever prospect of LIST SZN. Buckle up for a few dozen more over the coming months.

 

OFP: 60 / Mid-rotation workhorse or late-inning flamethrower

 

Variance: Medium. Manoah arguably had the best present stuff in the 2019 draft class, and the fastball/slider combo gives him a reasonably attainable major league relief fallback. However, the profile comes with a fair bit of relief risk as well. —Jeffrey Paternostro

 

Major league ETA: Late 2021

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Anyone else getting big-time Alex Meyer vibes? I am getting big-time Alex Meyer vibes. You’re better off taking a shot on a dude like Manoah than you are a safer back-end type with low upside, but in most cases you’re probably better off taking a position player than Manoah. He’ll be in the big mishmosh of pitchers we end up dropping off the top-101, listing in the honorable mentions, or referencing as “he’d be in the next 50” come formal rankings time. He should absolutely be owned if your league rosters 150-plus prospects, but I still think there’s considerable reliever risk here.

 

4. Eric Pardinho, RHP

DOB: 1/5/2001

Height/Weight: 5’10” / 155 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Signed on July 2nd, 2017 by the Toronto Blue Jays out of Brazil for $1.4 million.

Previous Ranking(s): #6 (Org)

2019 Stats: 0.00 ERA, 3.90 DRA, 4 IP, H, 3 BB, 5 K in 1 game for Rookie Gulf Coast; 2.41 ERA, 4.68 DRA, 33 ⅔ IP, 29 H, 13 BB, 30 K in 7 games for Low-A Lansing

 

The Report: It’s been over three years now since Pardinho was the toast of baseball as the 15-year-old Brazilian dominating the WBC qualifying round. He remains largely the same—preternaturally advanced for his age, but with a frame that limits his projectability. The Blue Jays handled him extraordinarily carefully after a spring elbow injury, holding off his debut until late June, limiting his pitch counts, giving him extra rest, and ultimately shutting him down a few weeks early. Unsurprisingly, he wasn’t entirely sharp in the six weeks he was on the mound. There is plenty of time though, because Pardinho is an 18-year-old who already made it to full-season ball.

 

When right, he is about as advanced a teenager as you’ll find. At his best, he’ll slings the fastball in the low 90s, touching the mid 90s, although he was generally below peak velocity in his 2019 stint. His primary off-speed is a plus curve, and he’s been working on improving his changeup and sharpening and distinguishing his slider. The command and pitchability profile is unusually strong for a teenager. This season raised some serious durability concerns in addition to the ones which were already present due to his slight size and frame. Pardinho might end up as something less than a full starting pitcher, but that’s less of a knock than it used to be.

 

OFP: 55 / good MLB pitcher, role TBD

 

Variance: High. He’s an 18-year-old who just missed half the season with an elbow injury, so the risk is pretty significant no matter how developed and advanced he is.

 

Major league ETA: 2022. I’d make a joke about whether he can beat the legal drinking age to the majors here, but it’s only 19 in Ontario.

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Pardinho is a fun story, but that doesn’t necessarily make him a great fantasy prospect. In fact, he represents a subset of pitcher that I find is often overvalued in our game; the dreaded “advanced teenage arm.” That’s great and all, but people often tend to bake in further improvement for these types even though the primary thing that makes them special is their advanced pitchability for their age. None of this is to say Pardinho is devoid of upside, but he doesn’t have enough of it for me to go all-in given the risks associated with the profile. Only proceed if your league rosters 200-plus prospects.

 

5. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP

DOB: 9/27/2000

Height/Weight: 6’3” / 210 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 48th overall by the New York Mets in the 2018 draft; signed for $1.85 million. Acquired from the Mets for Marcus Stroman.

Previous Ranking(s): #10 (Org, NYM)

2019 Stats: 2.54 ERA, 3.05 DRA, 28 ⅓ IP, 18 H, 7 BB, 29 K in 6 games for High-A Dunedin. 4.25 ERA, 5.04 DRA, 78 ⅓ IP, 78 H, 17 BB, 97 K in 20 games for Low-A Columbia.

 

The Report: Woods Richardson looks the part as a big power righty from the state of Texas and he has the stuff to match. He fires from a high slot with plus arm speed and goes right after hitters. The delivery has some effort, but he repeats it pretty well because of his premier athleticism. The fastball and curveball are potential plus pitches. The heater sits mid 90s in short bursts and can tick higher while settling low-to-mid 90s in longer outings. The pitch shows good life up and down the zone.

 

Woods Richardson pairs the fastball with a sharp, 12-to-6 breaking ball that spins tight and features strong bite, playing well off the high-slot fastball. The changeup is well behind, currently a show-me pitch with firmness and lack of feel. Arm speed is on his side with the changeup, and it could take big steps forward with further reps, but it’ll be difficult to project too much by way of gains given his current release point. The safe call is late-inning reliever with two knockout pitches, but those who especially like Woods Richardson see a mid-rotation starter with a third pitch of some kind. Either way, it’s obvious that he has the frame and stuff for impactful major-league innings.

 

OFP: 55 / Second-division closer or impact fireman

 

Variance: High. The value can shoot upward with the development of a third pitch, but there’s the strong likelihood of a reliever outcome. —David Lee

 

Major league ETA: 2022

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Woods Richardson (seriously, how is there not a hyphen) is in the same general tier of prospect as Pardinho, but I actually prefer him for our purposes. The odds may be greater that he’s a reliever, but they’re also greater that he’ll make an impact if he does stick as a starter, or that he’ll close if shifted to the bullpen. Essentially, this isn’t a terribly unique profile, but as far as guys with it go, I like Woods Richardson a fair amount.

 

6. Anthony Kay, LHP

DOB: 3/21/1995

Height/Weight: 6’0”/ 218 lbs.

Bats/Throws: L/L

Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 31st overall in the 2016 draft by the New York Mets from the University of Connecticut; signed for $1.1 million. Acquired from the Mets for Marcus Stroman

Previous Ranking(s): #9 (Org, NYM)

2019 Stats: 5.79 ERA, 4.76 DRA, 14 IP, 15 H, 5 BB, 13 K in 3 games for Toronto; 2.50 ERA, 6.22 DRA, 36 IP, 33 H, 22 BB, 39 K in 7 games for Triple-A Buffalo; 6.61 ERA, 5.87 DRA, 31 ⅓ IP, 40 H, 11 BB, 26 K in 7 games for Triple-A Syracuse; 1.49 ERA, 2.66 DRA, 66 ⅓ IP, 38 H, 23 BB, 70 K in 12 games for Double-A Binghamton

 

The Report: Now almost three full years off his post-draft Tommy John, Kay started to put it all together in 2019 and pitched will enough in the upper minors to get a cup of coffee with his new Canadian team. The fastball sits in the low 90s, bumping 95+ early in his outings. It will show hard, late run at times, but the overall command profile is a bit too much “wild in the zone.” The changeup was his signature pitch in college, but it has been inconsistent post-surgery. Kay sells the offering well, but it’s inconsistent and can show more as a straight change rather than as a true bat misser. It will flash almost Wiffle ball arm-side movement at times, though, and should play as at least an average major league offering.

 

Kay has developed a much better curveball in the pros, a tight 1-7 yakker that tunnels well off the fastball. He also manipulates the speed of the pitch effectively—running from the mid 70s all the way up to 80—and can spot it to either side of the plate. The breaker can get a bit lazy at times, or show as more of a chase offering. More advanced hitters were able to lay off the curve once Kay got out of the Eastern League, but it still projects as an above-average offering that could get to plus with a bit more refinement.

 

Kay has three average-or-better pitches, more than enough to stick in the middle of a rotation, but he can struggle with both efficiency and strike-throwing. He may lack a true putaway pitch in the majors, and has had issues bleeding stuff after 50-60 pitches or so. But overall, he’s a major-league-ready, polished lefty starting pitcher.

 

OFP: 55 / No. 3/4 starter

 

Variance: Low. There’s some risk the breaker doesn’t play as well in the majors as it did in Double-A and Kay is more of a five-and-dive fifth starter, but he’s already seen big league time and has three average-or-better pitches in his arsenal —Jeffrey Paternostro

 

Major league ETA: Debuted in 2019

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Kay is a good name to file away if you’re looking for some under-the-radar 2020 contributions in your very deep mixed or AL-only league. There’s nothing in front of him in Toronto’s rotation at present, and he’s got enough skill to stick around as a No. 4/5 starter on a decent team. If you’re hunting for a high-upside prospect, however, you can move along.

 

7. Gabriel Moreno, C

DOB: 2/14/2000

Height/Weight: 5’11” / 160 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Signed on August 3rd, 2016 by the Toronto Blue Jays out of Venezuela for $25,000.

Previous Ranking(s): N/R

2019 Stats: .280/.337/.485, 12 HR, 7 SB in 82 games for Low-A Lansing

 

The Report: Moreno is one of my favorite Midwest League bats of the year. He’s slight—and is likely shorter than his listed height, but he’s a big ball of energy on the field. His teammates seem to like him and feed off that energy, which is exactly what you want from a catcher. For me, he’s more impressive at the plate than behind it, and the hit tool leads the way. The bat-to-ball skills are all there and the barrel control is impressive. His stance and swing are atypical with almost no weight transfer, but Moreno manages to show respectable power, and the ball jumps off his bat. As he advances, it will be interesting to see if he adds some weight transfer to his swing and how that affects his power and bat-to-ball skills. If the latter doesn’t suffer with added lower-half movement, he may eventually tap into above-average game power.

 

Moreno is raw behind the plate and his arm is merely average. He does have a quick transfer though, so it is unlikely that the arm will force him out from behind the plate. At present he isn’t a great receiver, but he’s athletic and moves well behind the plate. Glovework for a catcher seems to be a teachable skill, so we will check on Moreno’s progression in that dimension of his game down the road. There are decent foundational tools here already, though.

 

OFP: 55 / Above-average major league catcher

 

Variance: High. If he has to move from behind the plate, it’s uncertain if the bat will carry the profile. If there is more power without sacrificing the hit tool, he might top that OFP. —Keith Rader

 

Major league ETA: 2022

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Friends don’t let friends draft fantasy catching prospects. That’s especially true when said prospects aren’t guaranteed to stick at catcher.

 

8. Orelvis Martinez, SS

DOB: 11/19/2001

Height/Weight: 6’1”, 188 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Signed on July 2nd, 2018 by the Toronto Blue Jays out of the Domincan Republic for $3.5 million.

Previous Ranking(s): N/R

2019 Stats: .275/.352/.549, 7 HR, 2 SB in 40 games for GCL Blue Jays

 

The Report: The Blue Jays’ biggest bonus baby in their 2018 J2 Class, Martinez looked the seven-figure part. At the plate he shows quality bat speed and uses the whole field to his advantage, showing advanced feel for hitting for someone so young. He is lean now but already shows average raw power, which should grow into potential plus raw power as he further matures, and he already shows big exit velocity with loft for a 17-year-old.

 

Defensively he may lose a step as he enters his twenties, pushing him off shortstop, but for now he combines good actions with plus arm strength and plus hands. He can be overly aggressive and flashy on the field, but these are things that iron out over time. The defensive tools would fit well at third base long term, and if the game power gets at least to plus, that bat will be more than enough to carry a corner.

 

OFP: 55 / Average regular, location TBD

 

Variance: High, while still young and having an impressive debut year, he could fill out the wrong way or see his aggression limit the hit tool. If/when he loses a step he could lose athleticism as well, moving him down the defensive spectrum. —Steve Givarz

 

Major league ETA: 2023

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Martinez is a total flier, but he’s a fairly fun one as fliers go. Plus, he reminded me of Runelvys Hernandez, so overall I see this as a total win.

 

9. Josh Winckowski, RHP

DOB: 6/28/98

Height/Weight: 6’4” / 202 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired:

Previous Ranking(s): N/R

2019 Stats: 2.32 ERA, 3.74 DRA, 73 ⅔ IP, 62 H, 26 BB, 71 K in 13 games for Low-A Lansing; .319 ERA, 3.98 DRA, 53 ⅔ IP, 48 H, 17 BB, 37 K in 11 games for High-A Dunedin

 

The Report: Winckowski has been steadily moving up the organizational ladder since being drafted in 2016, but had a breakout season this year in A-ball. He gets good extension on his heavy fastball, which sits in the mid 90s with late life. The changeup works well off of the heater and is a potential swing-and-miss pitch. Winckowski replicates his arm action well and the pitch shows good arm-side fade. His slider is inconsistent and can lack depth, but has an average projection. Physically, he’s got the classic starter’s build and if the secondaries develop he would profile as an innings eater at the back of the rotation.

 

OFP: 50 / No. 4 starter or setup

 

Variance: High. Needs to get a bit more out of the breaking ball to reach his OFP and hasn’t pitched in the upper minors yet. —Nathan Graham

 

Major league ETA: 2021

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: A low-ceiling pitcher with high risk who’s not ready right now: sign me up! Just kidding. Please do not sign me up. In fact, please remove me from your email list.

 

10. Griffin Conine, OF

DOB: 7/11/1997

Height/Weight: 6’1” / 200 lbs.

Bats/Throws: L/R

Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 52nd overall in the 2018 draft out of Duke University; signed for $1.35 million

Previous Ranking(s): #13 (Org)

2019 Stats: .283/.371/.576, 22 HR, 2 SB in 80 games for Low-A Lansing

 

The Report: After missing the first 50 games of the season due to a positive test for a banned stimulant, Conine arrived in the Midwest League, showing off the plus raw power that made him a potential first-round pick in 2018. The power does come with a cost at the plate, though, as his strikeout rate in Low-A was over 35 percent. Defensively, he’s limited to a corner spot where he makes up for below-average range with good instincts. He’ll be able to hold down right field with an arm that’s accurate and strong. Conine has the makings of a classic power hitting right-fielder but he’ll need to tighten up the approach at the plate to reach that profile.

 

OFP: 50 / Average Corner Outfielder

 

Variance: High. There are questions about whether the hit tool will play and Conine has yet to face advanced pitching. —Nathan Graham

 

Major league ETA: 2022

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: On the one hand, Conine doesn’t have a terribly exciting fantasy profile. On the other hand, he’s the son of a former big leaguer in Toronto’s system, so he’s probably at least a role-60 player in disguise. Add him to your watch list, but don’t pounce yet.

[jays4life19]

The Next Ten:

 

11.) Adam Kloffenstein (short-season Vancouver)

 

Kloffenstein wasn’t all that different a draft prospect from his now org-mate Woods Richardson. He went a round later last summer, but commanded a bigger bonus to buy him out of his college commitment. He’s your more traditional “everything’s bigger in Texas” prep arm, a towering, physically mature 6’5” even while playing almost the entire year at age 18. But while Woods Richardson’s stuff popped in A-ball, Kloffenstein sat more low 90s—as opposed to the mid 90s he flashed his draft year—and the profile looked more strike-thrower than big stuff guy. As mentioned, he just turned 19, and it’s an ideal starter’s frame, but he might not be as safe a prep arm as we posited last year, which is still risky, but now riskier. —Jeffrey Paternostro

 

12.) Alejandro Kirk, C (High-A Dunedin)

 

Kirk will undoubtedly draw comparisons to Willians Astudillo for a handful of reasons. They are both international catchers with rather large, not jean-modeling frames, they rarely swing and miss, they get on base, and while the former had been overlooked for some time, that is not the case with Kirk anymore. It isn’t pretty sometimes. The bat speed doesn’t wow you, the power isn’t over the fence variety, he can’t run, and you wouldn’t be remiss if you didn’t like the overall athleticism. He just gets on base and hits and hits. The swing works. It is short and direct to the ball, he recognizes pitches well, and he doesn’t often force himself to swing at pitches out of the zone. The defense is better than you would imagine, as he blocks well, has tick-above-average arm strength, and has worked hard to improve his receiving. The overall outcome is a hit over power, on-base driven catcher. The risk here is that if he stops getting on-base there isn’t anything else to carry the load, but hey was this even a profile you would have banked on even just a few years ago? -Steve Givarz

 

13.) T.J. Zeuch, RHP (Toronto Blue Jays)

 

Zeuch is probably going to pitch in the majors for a long time. It’s a bushel of average or slightly-above pitches. He leads off with a sinker that typically sits 91-94, topping out at 95, and rides in with plus movement especially against righties. He’ll also show you a slider, a curve, and a change that all come in around average and flash higher. That stuff from a 6’7” pitcher with a classic delivery explains the “former first-round pick” part pretty easily. Yet the sum as a professional pitcher has, to date, been less than the sum of his parts. He just hasn’t fooled enough batters to strike anyone out despite being an advanced college pitcher with, what is on paper, pretty good stuff. He came up for September and was fine, used as both a back-end starter and the bulk guy behind an opener. He currently profiles as, well, pretty much that moving forward, with an asterisk denoting that tall pitchers with good stuff are more likely to suddenly put it together quite late in the development cycle.

 

14.) Kendall Williams, RHP (GCL Blue Jays)

 

In yesteryear’s baseball, a player like Williams probably gets drafted much higher, and ends up much higher on prospect lists. Who doesn’t like a 6-foot-6 right-hander who showed an above-average fastball and potential plus curveball? He was simply too much for young hitters in the complex given his size, angle, strike throwing, and stuff. The stuff is still inconsistent and the fastball dropped later in the year as he wore down, which was partially why he was still on the board at 52. Williams’ stuff should be ready for a full-season roster next year, but they will most likely keep him in extended to add strength to his wiry frame. —Steve Givarz

 

15.) Dasan Brown, OF (GCL Blue Jays)

 

A local kid whom the Jays drafted out of an Ontario high school, Brown displays a collection of loud tools. At the plate, he shows plus raw power. While his understanding of the zone is advanced for the age, his pitch recognition is undeveloped and, consequently, there are a lot of whiffs, especially against off-speed stuff. The swing itself comes with length. The arm and speed (which is plus to plus-plus) are sufficient for him to stick in center, though he may have to slide to a corner at physical maturity. There’s a major-league regular ceiling here, but his road to The Show will be longer than a Dream Theater song. —Kazuto Yamazaki

 

16.) Miguel Hiraldo, IF (rookie-level Bluefield)

 

Hiraldo, a 750k bonus baby out of the Dominican in 2017, has some thunder in his stick. The bat is going to have to carry the profile here, as he’s already playing a lot of second base, and his arm is likely to limit him there in the medium-to-long term, and the glove isn’t much more than average even at the keystone. There might be enough juice in the offensive profile to make it work though, as a potential average hit/solid-average power combo isn’t hard to see. And Hiraldo will spend all of next season as a 19-year-old. He’s definitely a potential breakout Blue Jays name for 2020. —Jeffrey Paternostro

 

17.) Otto Lopez, SS (Low-A Lansing)

 

The Jays seem to be grooming Lopez for a super utility role. This year most of his reps came at short, but he has played everywhere but first and catcher during his professional career. He is more than capable at short, but that position may be occupied in Toronto for a while. Lopez is a clean, smooth defender with good footwork, hands, and body control. At the plate he’s balanced and takes confident swings. He doesn’t strike out much thanks to quick hands, a simple, smooth swing, and a flat bat path that’s relatively short to the ball. He really doesn’t do anything poorly, but he’s not flashy and aside from the hit tool, he lacks any other loud aspect to his game. He’s never going to be a top prospect, but expect him to continue putting up strong batting averages until he cracks the majors. If things go well developmentally he may wind up an everyday player. There isn’t a lot of variance in his profile, so the floor is high here. —Keith Rader

 

18.) Riley Adams, C (Double-A New Hampshire)

 

A third-round pick in the 2017 draft, Adams conquered the Florida State League on his second go-around and was perfectly fine over a half-season-plus in New Hampshire. The profile behind the plate is a bit nondescript if I’m honest. He’s much taller and a bit narrower than your average catcher, but he’s reasonably quiet and athletic behind the dish, although he can snatch for the low strike. There’s a solid approach at the plate, but some stiffness to the swing that leads to swing-and-miss in the zone, although it gives him potential above-average pop as well. This was the kind of catcher that was a backup for a decade in the late-90s or early-00s. A passable glove that could run into a bomb for you. With the modern emphasis on receiving, Adams might have a tougher time getting major league per diems, but the profile is still solid backup catcher on balance. —Jeffrey Paternostro

 

19.) Patrick Murphy, RHP (Double-A New Hampshire)

 

The early part of Murphy’s pro career was routinely interrupted by injuries, but he was healthy and showing progress throughout 2018 and early 2019. That all came to a screeching halt last summer when his delivery was deemed illegal by the Major League Baseball Umpires Association, and he was sent back to the drawing board to craft a new set of mechanics that removed his key timing mechanism—a toe tap just before he began his drive toward the plate. Prior to that revelation, Murphy was consistently showing a plus fastball and plus curveball with potential for impact in the middle-to-late innings out of the bullpen. Now, after only throwing 20 innings in the season’s final three months following news of his illegal delivery, Murphy’s future is decidedly up in the air. Any challenges finding consistency with his new mechanics could hasten an already-likely move to the bullpen, and the timeline for his big league debut could be pushed back beyond 2020. —Mark Anderson

 

20.) Kevin Smith, SS (Double-A New Hampshire)

 

We ranked Smith in the top five of last year’s list based on his quick hands and above-average bat speed. We had hope for a good offensive outcome despite some continuing pitch recognition and approach issues, and he performed well at the A-ball levels. He proceeded to hit .209 with a 32 percent strikeout rate in Double-A in 2019, and then followed it up by performing about as well as your random American League pitcher in interleague at the plate in the Arizona Fall League. Worse, he looked just as lost as those numbers indicate. There’s enough of an excuse with a failed swing change that tried to tap into his raw—and help him deal better with the high fastballs that he’s always struggled against—to hope that some of this comes back around. And there’s always the utility fallback for a versatile player who can handle the 6, of course. But we really didn’t see or hear a single good thing on his bat out of the Eastern League or the Arizona Fall League all year.

[Spanky__99]

Thanks friendo!

[Krylian]

I'm curious why you think a guy with the bat-to-ball ability Espinal has is a non-prospect. Yes, he's old for the level and hasn't demonstrated he can hit for much power, but we've seen players with his profile come up and grow into power as they get adjusted. Not to mention, he apparently plays a good shortstop too. I wouldn't outright call him a non-prospect. I can quite easily see him become a Kike Hernandez type.

 

Because he's turning 26 this year, he doesn't have any power, and I don't believe he does anything else well enough to carve out a real place for himself anywhere.

 

Could I be wrong? Sure. And this isn't a 'most prospects fail' thing. I think his age, coupled with his skillset, isn't a recipe for success in my eyes.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Krylian

[Krylian]

The Next Ten:

 

11.) Adam Kloffenstein (short-season Vancouver)

 

Kloffenstein wasn’t all that different a draft prospect from his now org-mate Woods Richardson. He went a round later last summer, but commanded a bigger bonus to buy him out of his college commitment. He’s your more traditional “everything’s bigger in Texas” prep arm, a towering, physically mature 6’5” even while playing almost the entire year at age 18. But while Woods Richardson’s stuff popped in A-ball, Kloffenstein sat more low 90s—as opposed to the mid 90s he flashed his draft year—and the profile looked more strike-thrower than big stuff guy. As mentioned, he just turned 19, and it’s an ideal starter’s frame, but he might not be as safe a prep arm as we posited last year, which is still risky, but now riskier. —Jeffrey Paternostro

 

12.) Alejandro Kirk, C (High-A Dunedin)

 

Kirk will undoubtedly draw comparisons to Willians Astudillo for a handful of reasons. They are both international catchers with rather large, not jean-modeling frames, they rarely swing and miss, they get on base, and while the former had been overlooked for some time, that is not the case with Kirk anymore. It isn’t pretty sometimes. The bat speed doesn’t wow you, the power isn’t over the fence variety, he can’t run, and you wouldn’t be remiss if you didn’t like the overall athleticism. He just gets on base and hits and hits. The swing works. It is short and direct to the ball, he recognizes pitches well, and he doesn’t often force himself to swing at pitches out of the zone. The defense is better than you would imagine, as he blocks well, has tick-above-average arm strength, and has worked hard to improve his receiving. The overall outcome is a hit over power, on-base driven catcher. The risk here is that if he stops getting on-base there isn’t anything else to carry the load, but hey was this even a profile you would have banked on even just a few years ago? -Steve Givarz

 

13.) T.J. Zeuch, RHP (Toronto Blue Jays)

 

Zeuch is probably going to pitch in the majors for a long time. It’s a bushel of average or slightly-above pitches. He leads off with a sinker that typically sits 91-94, topping out at 95, and rides in with plus movement especially against righties. He’ll also show you a slider, a curve, and a change that all come in around average and flash higher. That stuff from a 6’7” pitcher with a classic delivery explains the “former first-round pick” part pretty easily. Yet the sum as a professional pitcher has, to date, been less than the sum of his parts. He just hasn’t fooled enough batters to strike anyone out despite being an advanced college pitcher with, what is on paper, pretty good stuff. He came up for September and was fine, used as both a back-end starter and the bulk guy behind an opener. He currently profiles as, well, pretty much that moving forward, with an asterisk denoting that tall pitchers with good stuff are more likely to suddenly put it together quite late in the development cycle.

 

14.) Kendall Williams, RHP (GCL Blue Jays)

 

In yesteryear’s baseball, a player like Williams probably gets drafted much higher, and ends up much higher on prospect lists. Who doesn’t like a 6-foot-6 right-hander who showed an above-average fastball and potential plus curveball? He was simply too much for young hitters in the complex given his size, angle, strike throwing, and stuff. The stuff is still inconsistent and the fastball dropped later in the year as he wore down, which was partially why he was still on the board at 52. Williams’ stuff should be ready for a full-season roster next year, but they will most likely keep him in extended to add strength to his wiry frame. —Steve Givarz

 

15.) Dasan Brown, OF (GCL Blue Jays)

 

A local kid whom the Jays drafted out of an Ontario high school, Brown displays a collection of loud tools. At the plate, he shows plus raw power. While his understanding of the zone is advanced for the age, his pitch recognition is undeveloped and, consequently, there are a lot of whiffs, especially against off-speed stuff. The swing itself comes with length. The arm and speed (which is plus to plus-plus) are sufficient for him to stick in center, though he may have to slide to a corner at physical maturity. There’s a major-league regular ceiling here, but his road to The Show will be longer than a Dream Theater song. —Kazuto Yamazaki

 

16.) Miguel Hiraldo, IF (rookie-level Bluefield)

 

Hiraldo, a 750k bonus baby out of the Dominican in 2017, has some thunder in his stick. The bat is going to have to carry the profile here, as he’s already playing a lot of second base, and his arm is likely to limit him there in the medium-to-long term, and the glove isn’t much more than average even at the keystone. There might be enough juice in the offensive profile to make it work though, as a potential average hit/solid-average power combo isn’t hard to see. And Hiraldo will spend all of next season as a 19-year-old. He’s definitely a potential breakout Blue Jays name for 2020. —Jeffrey Paternostro

 

17.) Otto Lopez, SS (Low-A Lansing)

 

The Jays seem to be grooming Lopez for a super utility role. This year most of his reps came at short, but he has played everywhere but first and catcher during his professional career. He is more than capable at short, but that position may be occupied in Toronto for a while. Lopez is a clean, smooth defender with good footwork, hands, and body control. At the plate he’s balanced and takes confident swings. He doesn’t strike out much thanks to quick hands, a simple, smooth swing, and a flat bat path that’s relatively short to the ball. He really doesn’t do anything poorly, but he’s not flashy and aside from the hit tool, he lacks any other loud aspect to his game. He’s never going to be a top prospect, but expect him to continue putting up strong batting averages until he cracks the majors. If things go well developmentally he may wind up an everyday player. There isn’t a lot of variance in his profile, so the floor is high here. —Keith Rader

 

18.) Riley Adams, C (Double-A New Hampshire)

 

A third-round pick in the 2017 draft, Adams conquered the Florida State League on his second go-around and was perfectly fine over a half-season-plus in New Hampshire. The profile behind the plate is a bit nondescript if I’m honest. He’s much taller and a bit narrower than your average catcher, but he’s reasonably quiet and athletic behind the dish, although he can snatch for the low strike. There’s a solid approach at the plate, but some stiffness to the swing that leads to swing-and-miss in the zone, although it gives him potential above-average pop as well. This was the kind of catcher that was a backup for a decade in the late-90s or early-00s. A passable glove that could run into a bomb for you. With the modern emphasis on receiving, Adams might have a tougher time getting major league per diems, but the profile is still solid backup catcher on balance. —Jeffrey Paternostro

 

19.) Patrick Murphy, RHP (Double-A New Hampshire)

 

The early part of Murphy’s pro career was routinely interrupted by injuries, but he was healthy and showing progress throughout 2018 and early 2019. That all came to a screeching halt last summer when his delivery was deemed illegal by the Major League Baseball Umpires Association, and he was sent back to the drawing board to craft a new set of mechanics that removed his key timing mechanism—a toe tap just before he began his drive toward the plate. Prior to that revelation, Murphy was consistently showing a plus fastball and plus curveball with potential for impact in the middle-to-late innings out of the bullpen. Now, after only throwing 20 innings in the season’s final three months following news of his illegal delivery, Murphy’s future is decidedly up in the air. Any challenges finding consistency with his new mechanics could hasten an already-likely move to the bullpen, and the timeline for his big league debut could be pushed back beyond 2020. —Mark Anderson

 

20.) Kevin Smith, SS (Double-A New Hampshire)

 

We ranked Smith in the top five of last year’s list based on his quick hands and above-average bat speed. We had hope for a good offensive outcome despite some continuing pitch recognition and approach issues, and he performed well at the A-ball levels. He proceeded to hit .209 with a 32 percent strikeout rate in Double-A in 2019, and then followed it up by performing about as well as your random American League pitcher in interleague at the plate in the Arizona Fall League. Worse, he looked just as lost as those numbers indicate. There’s enough of an excuse with a failed swing change that tried to tap into his raw—and help him deal better with the high fastballs that he’s always struggled against—to hope that some of this comes back around. And there’s always the utility fallback for a versatile player who can handle the 6, of course. But we really didn’t see or hear a single good thing on his bat out of the Eastern League or the Arizona Fall League all year.

 

I like Pardinho, but that's way too high...and I'm not as high on Kirk as some others, but that's way too low.

[BlueRocky]

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/bluejays/

 

Don't know if this was posted, but updated top 30. Looks like a new layout as well.

 

1. Nate Pearson

2. Jordan Groshans

3. Simeon Woods Richardson

4. Alek Manoah

5. Alejandro Kirk

6. Orelvis Martinez

7. Gabriel Moreno

8. Miguel Hiraldo

9. Adam Kloffenstein

10. Anthony Kay

11. Kendall Williams

12. Eric Pardinho

13. Otto Lopez

14. Griffin Conine

15. Leonardo Jimenez

16. Estiven Machado

17. Dasan Brown

18. Rikelvin De Castro

19. Patrick Murphy

20. Reese McGuire

21. Anthony Alford

22. Santiago Espinal

23. Kevin Smith

24. Thomas Hatch

25. Julian Merryweather

26. Will Robertson

27. Riley Adams

28. Sem Robberse

29. Yennsy Diaz

30. Josh Winckowski

 

This list is going to look so different by July.

 

I like Wincky and Lopez finally getting some love.

[Ray]

Mark your calendars:

 

Brendon: Jays list coming soon?

Eric A Longenhagen: Late next week

[BlueRocky]

Not sure if this got posted anywhere.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/baseball-america-spring-training-prospect-report-feb-26-2020/

 

Baseball America Spring Training Prospect Report -- Feb. 26, 2020

 

Nate Pearson, RHP, Blue Jays — The Blue Jays' top pitching prospect was electric in his spring training debut on Tuesday. The righthander with the 80-grade fastball (which has touched 104 mph) whiffed all three hitters he faced against the Yankees. His victims were all established major leaguers, too: Tyler Wade, Mike Tauchman and Miguel Andujar. After a season with a partially managed workload (he alternated between starts of two and five innings for the first half of 2019) the reins should come off this year. Pearson will likely start in Triple-A Buffalo but is poised to join Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio as part of Toronto's fantastic youth movement.

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2020-mlb-organization-talent-rankings/

 

I don’t think it changed for us from a month ago, but Blue Jays are still at #6 for the pre-season updated farm rankings.

 

6) Toronto Blue Jays

Notes:

2019 Midseason: 6 |2019 Preseason: 3 | 2018: 8 | 2017: 20 | 2016: 24 | 2015: 9 | 2014: 15

 

3 Top 100 prospects: RHP Nate Pearson (7), SS Jordan Groshans (29), RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (61)

 

Skinny: Graduating two top 10 overall prospects like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette would usually sink a team in these rankings, but the Blue Jays still have one of the game’s top farm systems. It’s a balanced group with star potential at the top in Nate Pearson and Jordan Groshans and prospect depth throughout each level.

[Ray]

Keith Law top farm system rankings for who’s interested.

 

As part of my prospect rankings, I’ve also ranked all 30 major-league teams’ farm systems here, with a brief explanation of why they’re in this order — although I think you’ll get an even clearer picture on any individual team by reading the team reports that rolled out last week (for the American League) and will roll out this week (for the National League). Bear in mind that these rankings only consider players currently in the system and eligible for the rankings, meaning they have not yet lost rookie status.

 

1. Tampa Bay Rays

 

The Rays need a strong farm system to stay competitive, given their revenue constraints and unwillingness to spend big on their major-league payroll, but they have enough depth in their system right now that they can trade from it to keep the big-league team competitive. Not only do they have the top prospect in the game, but they also have substantial pitching depth — even after trading one of their top pitching prospects — and have benefited from a recent change in draft philosophy as well as increasingly productive classes of international free agents. They’ve also done well in stocking the system with middle-infield prospects, many of whom will eventually move to other positions but at least start out with the potential to stay up the middle. The only place they’re really weak at the moment is behind the plate. The Rays may not know where they’ll be playing for the next few years, but they should be competitive for some time to come.

 

2. Atlanta Braves

 

The pipeline in Atlanta continues, even though the team has been effectively out of the international prospect market for two years now. That’s thanks to the last fruits of the previous regime’s efforts and several very productive drafts in the time since, including a 2019 draft class that already looks like it’s yielding positive results. They have depth in pitching, even with several graduations of top pitching prospects the past two years, and behind the plate, which is always valuable. They are light in the middle infield, although Braden Shewmake’s emergence as a likely long-term shortstop is a very promising development.

 

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

 

The Dodgers’ chain of elite prospects remains unbroken, to the point where perhaps we should no longer be surprised. Corey Seager was followed by Cody Bellinger, who is now followed by Gavin Lux. Julio Urías was followed by Walker Buehler, who was followed by Dustin May, who may now be followed by Josiah Gray. They’ve drafted well, they’ve fared exceptionally well internationally, and they’ve even added some prospects in trades while still contending, a neat trick few teams pull off more than once. They even have enough catching depth to put their third-best catching prospect, Keibert Ruiz, on the trade block. The Dodgers get credit for the money they spend but not enough for the players they develop on their own.

 

4. Arizona Diamondbacks

 

The Diamondbacks traded two major-league stars for a total of seven prospects, but those deals have little to do with their ranking here, with two already graduated and only one of the other five in the team’s top 10. It’s about everything else: very productive drafts, goosed by some extra picks and a little good fortune (e.g., the No. 4 player on my 2019 board, Corbin Carroll, getting to them at pick 16), and some strong early returns on international classes, including a payoff on an early, aggressive effort in the Bahamas. They’re even here despite trading their No. 1 prospect at the time, Jazz Chisholm, to Miami in July.

 

5. San Diego Padres

 

The No. 1 system in my rankings the past two years took a few hits in 2019, from the graduations of the top prospect in baseball last winter (Fernando Tatis Jr.) and five others from its top 20 to the trade of top 100 overall prospect Xavier Edwards this winter for Tommy Pham and Jake Cronenworth. The Padres have also seen a few guys stall in their progress, or at least hit some obstacles as they’ve reached High A or Double A, while the pipeline behind them isn’t quite as productive as it was right after 2016, when they spent over $70 million in bonuses and penalties in the international market. They do still boast the minors’ top pitching prospect and substantial pitching depth, as well as a large class of highly athletic position players all across the diamond who look like they could fill out most of a lineup in two to three years.

 

6. New York Yankees

 

The Yankees have clearly figured out some things on the development side, especially finding ways to help pitchers throw harder or throw higher-quality pitches (like boosting spin rates), and have also stayed active on the international side. Their Latin American contingent helmed one of the most lauded groups of short-season prospects I found during the process of assembling these rankings, with teams already asking for some of their GCL kids in trade talks. They’ve also got pitching coming, headlined by a risky first-round pick who’s worked out extremely well so far in Clarke Schmidt.

 

7. Toronto Blue Jays

 

The Blue Jays system remains in the top 10 thanks to a little of everything. Their past two drafts, in particular, look very strong. Their international scouting department has added some of the highest-ceiling prospects they’ve had since before I worked there. They added two more of their top-10 prospects in the Marcus Stroman trade. And they’re developing well, with their top two prospects improving since they entered the Toronto system.

 

8. Miami Marlins

 

I think this is the highest I’ve ever ranked the Marlins, who were generally busy trading away salaries or skipping Latin America and then rushing the few prospects they did have to the majors. Now they’re adding talent everywhere they can and importing some of the development ideas their core baseball group brought over from the Yankees system. There’s a lot of ceiling here, and thus a lot of risk, but for the first time in more than a decade there are some possible star position players on the way.

 

 

Dylan Carlson (Joe Robbins / Getty Images)

9. St. Louis Cardinals

 

The Cardinals just keep doing it, even with a complete washout draft in 2017 and misses on their first picks in 2015 and 2016. Their evaluation of Dylan Carlson appears to have been well ahead of everyone else’s, they keep finding and/or creating catchers, and they’ve been shrewd about adding prospects in selected trades to balance out some of the other prospects they’ve traded away. They’re light in the middle infield, but that catching strength, even after trading away Carson Kelly, is a Very Good Thing™.

 

10. San Francisco Giants

 

I feel like the whole exceeds the sum of the parts here; each individual Giants prospect of note has some significant risk of low or no return, but if you add them all up, there’s more than enough upside to start to feel optimistic about the Giants’ long-term future. The short term might be bleak as very little help is on the immediate horizon from the farm, but their crop of hitting prospects aged 20 and below is extremely strong and brings a lot of ceiling on one or both sides of the ball.

 

11. Seattle Mariners

 

This is not a typo: Seattle’s farm system is actually … good. Someone should check on Jerry DiPoto, who hasn’t traded a prospect away in several weeks now. They’ve also drafted better in recent years, and their two big signings in the July 2 market in 2017, Julio Rodriguez and Noelvi Marte, look like successes so far, ending a long drought of prospects from Latin America going back to Félix Hernández.

 

12. Kansas City Royals

 

Pitching they’ve got, thanks to a bumper crop of college pitchers selected in 2018 that should start to impact the major-league roster this year. The position player group lags well behind, with some very talented players in the system who have not converted their physical gifts into production yet, led by the troika of high-profile hitters — Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez and Seuly Matias — who struggled in High-A Wilmington last year, even as the parade of future rotation regulars passed through Delaware (paying a $4 toll).

 

13. Chicago White Sox

 

It’s the same story each year for the White Sox — their system has a small group of very high-profile prospects, several of whom are about to alter the big-league roster permanently, but the depth trails off quickly after the top 10. They deserve credit for diving into the high school pitching market again with their picks of Andrew Dalquist and Matt Thompson, the former a more advanced pitcher with less ceiling, the latter a high-ceiling guy who’s less advanced as a pitcher.

 

14. Pittsburgh Pirates

 

For all that went wrong in Pittsburgh the past few years — some of which is blamed on the previous regime but wasn’t their fault at all — Ben Cherington and company inherited a decent farm system, with a lot of athletes among their pitchers and position players who may just need different approaches to reach their ceilings.

 

 

The Twins’ Alex Kirilloff (David Dermer / USA Today)

15. Minnesota Twins

 

The Twins system as a whole had a down year in 2019, with some of the highest-profile players taking steps back or just failing to advance, but there is still enough depth, especially hard-throwing arms, to keep them around the middle of the pack. I’d like to see more up-the-middle impact to get them into the top tier, although that is harder to do when the major-league team is this good and you draft near the end of the first round.

 

16. New York Mets

 

They traded four of their top 10 prospects in the last year, and they’re still right around the midpoint of the list, thanks to still-productive drafts and a flow of seven-figure signings from Latin America who’ve come into pro ball and, by and large, produced right away. I can understand Met fans’ concerns that their elite prospects will be traded for short-term help in the majors, but there’s enough in the second tier of guys — after Ronny Mauricio and Francisco Alvarez and the 2019 draftees — to help patch the roster in July as needed.

 

17. Texas Rangers

 

Texas has a lot of guys you’d like to have, but perhaps not a lot of guys you’d go out of your way to trade for, although they certainly have some players in Category 1 who might get to Category 2. They tried some things on the pitching side that have not worked out, with a rash of Tommy John surgeries in the past year-plus that stands out even in an industry that seems to treat them like they’re paper cuts. There’s a lot of untapped athleticism in the system as well.

 

18. L.A. Angels

 

Jo Adell’s a stud, Brandon Marsh might be, too, but many of the other players with upside in this system took steps back last year or were hurt, and then the Angels traded away their first-rounder to clear Zack Cozart’s salary, so the system as a whole is in worse shape relative to their competitors than it was a year ago. It’s also really young – everyone’s system is young, of course, but this one seems especially so, with only one prospect drafted from college in their top 20.

 

19. Detroit Tigers

 

The most top-heavy system in baseball, the Tigers’ farm boasts three elite pitching prospects and a very high-upside outfielder, then drops off extremely quickly before we’re even out of the top 10. They’ve added some bulk with trades, both on the pitching side and with position players, while their top prospect signed by the Tigers on the July 2 front is only No. 15 in their system.

 

20. Colorado Rockies

 

Four of their most notable position-player prospects had down seasons in 2019, and their pitching depth is probably as thin as it’s been in several years. Their 2019 draft was college-heavy, but they rolled the dice on some upside after the first round, which should give Rockies fans hope the system will look stronger a year from now.

 

21. Cleveland

 

Cleveland’s full-season clubs were very light on potential regulars, but its short-season teams, down to the AZL, were loaded with talented position players signed as international free agents. The list of potential starters among the prospects is quite short, however, after a few years of producing not just impact starters but also quality back-end guys like Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale.

 

 

Alec Bohm (Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)

22. Philadelphia Phillies

 

The Phillies have made some quixotic decisions on the development front — pushing very young, often physically immature players to full-season ball, then starting college products like Alec Bohm and Spencer Howard in Low A — that seem to have held back their system as a whole despite better drafts the past 2-3 years and continually productive international classes.

 

23. Cincinnati Reds

 

This system might have been a lot higher had the Reds not traded three of their top five prospects in the past year-plus or tinkered with some prospects’ swings to try to get to more power. They’ve drafted quite well as long as you remember the players they’ve traded, but there isn’t a lot left here that can help the big-league team this season.

 

24. Baltimore Orioles

 

It’s still early in the rebuild and the Orioles’ first draft under Mike Elias was fine, but not a blockbuster. There’s some back-end pitching depth here behind the big two starter prospects, DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez, and a few position players in the low levels who have upside beyond what they’ve shown so far. This team needs more total bulk in the system and to get active in Latin America again.

 

25. Boston Red Sox

 

Trades, promotions, and low draft picks have caught up with the Red Sox, whose major-league need for pitching won’t be satisfied by the fruits of the farm any time soon. Their top two pitching prospects have big questions — one is just coming back from Tommy John, the other may have to go spend a few years on a submarine — and beyond them it’s back-end starters or, more often, starters who project as relievers due to deliveries or lack of a third pitch.

 

26. Oakland A’s

 

Oakland has found value in a lot of unexpected places, from later draft picks or selections of unconventional players to buy-low opportunities in trades, but they’ve had worse luck when the opportunity costs were higher: drafting Kyler Murray only to see him choose football, drafting Austin Beck and Richie Martin in the first round, handing Lazarito $3 million to strike out 221 times last year. That means the system has a lot of guys who’ll play in the big leagues but not a lot of guys who will be impact big leaguers.

 

27. Houston Astros

 

It’s funny, but when you get rid of all of your amateur scouts, your drafts get a whole lot worse. If it weren’t for the work of the international scouting department, helmed by Oz Ocampo (now with Pittsburgh), this would absolutely be the bottom system in the majors.

 

28. Chicago Cubs

 

The Cubs’ drafts have just been fair the past few years, and they’ve fared especially poorly when they reversed course and tried to draft pitching high rather than going for the certainty of position players. Yet their system is still mostly guys they drafted with just a smattering of prospects from Latin America. There are a few names here who could pop in 2020, but I think we say that about the Cubs every year.

 

29. Washington Nationals

 

You don’t care, right, Nats fans? You got a ring! That’s what the farm is for, and Mike Rizzo and company worked the heck out of their system to get to that World Series. They’ve traded a lot of prospects, two of whom look like they’ll hurt (Lucas Giolito and Jesús Luzardo), but they have a world championship to show for it. That’s good, because it gets thin very quickly here, most notably on the pitching front.

 

30. Milwaukee Brewers

 

The Brewers have traded or promoted so much talent the past few years that a couple of misses on early draft picks are much more noticeable; they were the only team that came close to failing to place a prospect on my top 100 this year, and they were the hardest team to write up with my self-imposed minimum of 20 prospects per team, saved largely by some high-upside players signed in the past three years out of Latin America. This was a choice, to some extent — the major-league team came within one win of a World Series and continues to contend, at the cost of the long-term value of the farm system.

[Jimcanuck]

5. San Diego Padres

 

The No. 1 system in my rankings the past two years took a few hits in 2019, from the graduations of the top prospect in baseball last winter (Fernando Tatis Jr.) and five others from its top 20 to the trade of top 100 overall prospect Xavier Edwards this winter for Tommy Pham and Jake Cronenworth. The Padres have also seen a few guys stall in their progress, or at least hit some obstacles as they’ve reached High A or Double A, while the pipeline behind them isn’t quite as productive as it was right after 2016, when they spent over $70 million in bonuses and penalties in the international market. They do still boast the minors’ top pitching prospect and substantial pitching depth, as well as a large class of highly athletic position players all across the diamond who look like they could fill out most of a lineup in two to three years.

 

KLaw fail

[BlueRocky]

Anyone interested in some strikeouts?

 

Nate Pearson VS Ryan McBroom. 3 pitches.

 

2019 AAA Ryan McBroom: .315/.402/.574, OPS 0.976, 146 wRC+

 

Nate Pearson VS Michael Chavis

 

2019 AAA Michael Chavis: .257/.329/.614, OPS 0.943, 128 wRC+

 

Nate strikesout Wittie, then Dalbec

 

*Context: Wittie got a base hit and Dalbec took him deep 1st time through the order, Nate came storming back the second time.

Edited March 3, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Vdubfan]

Anyone in the US have ESPN+? Kiley just dropped his top 100.

[Ray]

Fangraphs just dropped the Yankees list and it's 54 players deep

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-54-prospects-new-york-yankees/

[sdyment]

Fangraphs just dropped the Yankees list and it's 54 players deep

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-54-prospects-new-york-yankees/

 

Their top 5 and 19 of 22 are all July 2nd signings. That’s impressive.

[max silver]

Sportsnet put up an interesting piece on Thomas Hatch today. It's revealed within that the main reason that his control improved so dramatically after his trade to the Jays was that he was suffering through a pretty severe case of shoulder inflammation for a good part of the season. Once he healed up fully he had a dramatic turnaround in his walk numbers at AA for Toronto.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-thomas-hatch-finding-success-health-change/

 

This seems like a guy who is being overlooked by much of the scouting industry. His numbers in New Hampshire are pretty damn impressive, 0.51 BB/9, 2.25 xFIP jump off the page immediately when perusing his numbers. He was hurt a bit by the homerun, but perhaps the 20.8% HR/FB will normalize, previously his high was only 10.4%. It seems he possesses a high spin fastball, effective slider/cutter, and a nice splitter like changeup. What is a realistic ceiling for this guy? I wonder if mid-rotation is attainable by this guy personally, it sounds like he has a lot of good tools at his disposal.

[P2F]

Sportsnet put up an interesting piece on Thomas Hatch today. It's revealed within that the main reason that his control improved so dramatically after his trade to the Jays was that he was suffering through a pretty severe case of shoulder inflammation for a good part of the season. Once he healed up fully he had a dramatic turnaround in his walk numbers at AA for Toronto.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-thomas-hatch-finding-success-health-change/

 

This seems like a guy who is being overlooked by much of the scouting industry. His numbers in New Hampshire are pretty damn impressive, 0.51 BB/9, 2.25 xFIP jump off the page immediately when perusing his numbers. He was hurt a bit by the homerun, but perhaps the 20.8% HR/FB will normalize, previously his high was only 10.4%. It seems he possesses a high spin fastball, effective slider/cutter, and a nice splitter like changeup. What is a realistic ceiling for this guy? I wonder if mid-rotation is attainable by this guy personally, it sounds like he has a lot of good tools at his disposal.

 

Just to add to this a bit, that spin rate on his fastball is elite. 2550 RPM at his velocity (92-94, T96) is some upper tier fastball s***.

[Laika]

Sportsnet put up an interesting piece on Thomas Hatch today. It's revealed within that the main reason that his control improved so dramatically after his trade to the Jays was that he was suffering through a pretty severe case of shoulder inflammation for a good part of the season. Once he healed up fully he had a dramatic turnaround in his walk numbers at AA for Toronto.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-thomas-hatch-finding-success-health-change/

 

This seems like a guy who is being overlooked by much of the scouting industry. His numbers in New Hampshire are pretty damn impressive, 0.51 BB/9, 2.25 xFIP jump off the page immediately when perusing his numbers. He was hurt a bit by the homerun, but perhaps the 20.8% HR/FB will normalize, previously his high was only 10.4%. It seems he possesses a high spin fastball, effective slider/cutter, and a nice splitter like changeup. What is a realistic ceiling for this guy? I wonder if mid-rotation is attainable by this guy personally, it sounds like he has a lot of good tools at his disposal.

 

I have trouble putting any real stock into the Hatch narratives. The guy has a huge sample at AA, 53 games, and he has been mediocre. I’d be happy with a decent middle reliever

[Spanky__99]

I have trouble putting any real stock into the Hatch narratives. The guy has a huge sample at AA, 53 games, and he has been mediocre. I’d be happy with a decent middle reliever

 

Goddamn wet blanket!!! lol

[max silver]

I have trouble putting any real stock into the Hatch narratives. The guy has a huge sample at AA, 53 games, and he has been mediocre. I’d be happy with a decent middle reliever

 

Here you are again dazzling us again with your unrelenting sense of optimism. I find myself wondering if there has been a skill change with his control, wouldn't it be hard to fluke your way into a 0.51 BB/9? According the Fangraphs it takes 170 batters faced for walk rates to stabilize, so Hatch has quite a ways to go on that front as he only pitched 35 innings with a whip of 0.76. He likely only faced in the neighbourhood of 75-80 batters total, so there is almost certainly some regression expected here, but even so that's a very impressive walk rate. I am taking the whole narrative about the shoulder inflammation causing the control woes with a bit of a grain of salt as well, but given the arsenal present and nice second half results I would hope for more than middle reliever here.

[max silver]

Just to add to this a bit, that spin rate on his fastball is elite. 2550 RPM at his velocity (92-94, T96) is some upper tier fastball s***.

 

According to this chart Hatches fastball could be a sneaky good weapon with regards to swinging strikes:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HI-dikWN64clxSGJu2QV8C64R9Bkzt8K-jFaeHj4X7k/edit#gid=0

 

It looks like Hatch would likely fall into the 8.5-11% range where this article (while a little old now as it's from 2014), shows fastball swinging strike percentage was only 6.95 for 4 seam fastballs:

 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/swinging-strike-benchmarks-for-pitch-types/

[P2F]

It's hard to say at this very moment whether or not Hatch could remain a starter in the long term, but there were only three starters in MLB last season that had a higher RPM on his fastball than the FG-reported 2550 RPM on Hatch's fastball: Mike Minor (2650), Justin Verlander, (2577), and Jeff Samardzija (2559). Yu Darvish (2533), Gerrit Cole (2529), and Andrew Heaney (2524) are the only other starters above 2500 RPM. FWIW.

 

Edit: Also of note, Elite SP/RP John Gant had 2515 RPM on his fastball.

[max silver]

It's hard to say at this very moment whether or not Hatch could remain a starter in the long term, but there were only three starters in MLB last season that had a higher RPM on his fastball than the FG-reported 2550 RPM on Hatch's fastball: Mike Minor (2650), Justin Verlander, (2577), and Jeff Samardzija (2559). Yu Darvish (2533), Gerrit Cole (2529), and Andrew Heaney (2524) are the only other starters above 2500 RPM. FWIW.

 

Edit: Also of note, Elite SP/RP John Gant had 2515 RPM on his fastball.

 

Nice, I didn't know that spin rate information was readily available for minor league pitchers.

[Ray]

Brendon: Looking forward to the Jays list! What’s the most interesting thing you’ve learned after making calls about the system?

 

Eric A Longenhagen: That aside from Pearson, Roither Hernandez is the hardest-throwing dude in the system.

[Grant77]

It's hard to say at this very moment whether or not Hatch could remain a starter in the long term, but there were only three starters in MLB last season that had a higher RPM on his fastball than the FG-reported 2550 RPM on Hatch's fastball: Mike Minor (2650), Justin Verlander, (2577), and Jeff Samardzija (2559). Yu Darvish (2533), Gerrit Cole (2529), and Andrew Heaney (2524) are the only other starters above 2500 RPM. FWIW.

 

Edit: Also of note, Elite SP/RP John Gant had 2515 RPM on his fastball.

 

If we get Gant's performance from Hatch then that's probably a win in my opinion.

[Brownie19]

Fangraphs list.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-38-prospects-toronto-blue-jays/

[Ray]

Definitely the highest I’ve seen Thomas Hatch on any of our lists.

[glory]

I'm on the Hatch bandwagon, but that's a pretty aggressive ranking for him.

[Brownie19]

"Kirk is built like Chris Farley and, like Farley, has moments of surprising grace and athletic brilliance despite his size."

 

Classic.