Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Olerud363]

Absolutely

 

Suddenly having Price and Stroman at the front of the rotation had a massive and immediate impact

 

Tulo stabilized the IF defense though even though he probably didn't hit any better than Reyes

 

Stroman only had four starts, and didn't show up until September 12th... I remember because he pitched the second game of the double header sweep at Yankee Stadium (saw it live), at which point the Jays already had a 3.5 game lead. That being said, he did win 4/4 games... all key games.

 

According to fangraphs WAR

 

Price - 2.7

Tulo - 1.4

Stroman - 0.4

Revere - 0.3

Hawkins - 0.3

Lowe - 0.1

 

That is about 5 wins... but whoever would of played otherwise (Norris, Reyes, Valencia) wouldn't of been 0, so maybe the trades added 3-4 wins.

 

Jays won by 6. If they lose 4 wins, they theoretically still win the division. But of course they played the yankees head to head a lot down the stretch. So take away a key win or two against the Yankees and they don't win the division

 

Without the trades, they probably end up playing better for the last two months, and still win the division (barely) or the wild card... but who knows, without the trades they are somewhere between 86-89 wins depending on luck. Maybe in the playoffs, maybe not.

 

With the trades they were comfortably in the playoffs.

[Jimcanuck]

With the trades they were comfortably in the playoffs.

 

Without the Tulo trade they are comfortably in the playoffs.

 

I can understand the trade, but at the time I was ambivalent about it. Was glad to see Reyes gone but did not like the prospect capital given up.

 

BB says he would do the trade again. I doubt many would agree with that.

[THANOS]

Surprised no one posted it but Bo Bitches won MiLB Player or the Year

 

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toronto-blue-jays-prospect-bo-bichette-wins-milby-award-for-top-offensive-player/c-259521444

[Spanky__99]

Wonder where they'll have the Jays farm system, they have them in the top 10, awww yeah!

 

https://secure.milb.com/news/awards/y2017/?category=offense

[P2F]

For anyone hurtin' for some prospects content, Ralph Lifshitz of Razzball released his early 2018 top fantasy 100 list:

 

http://razzball.com/top-50-prospects-for-2018-fantasy-baseball/

http://razzball.com/top-100-prospects-for-2018-fantasy-baseball/

 

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B Blue Jays | 2017 Level: A+ | 2017 Stats: .323/.425/.485, 13 HR, 76 RBI, 8 SB

Unquestionably one of the top 5 prospects in all of baseball, Vlad Jr.’s hype is about to reach mania type levels over the next 6 months. At just 18, the spawn of Vlad started flashing very real game power over the last few months. Advanced approach, more power to come, and the bloodlines, Vlad Jr. looks like a middle of the order masher in the making. The only real negative is the questions surrounding Guerrero’s future position. Will he stick at 3rd or settle in across the diamond at first? Some foresee a future in a corner outfield spot. Ultimately time will tell, doesn’t change his value much. ETA: 2020

13. Bo Bichette, SS Blue Jays | Level: A+ | 2017 Stats: .362/.423/.565, 14 HR, 74 RBI, 22 SB

One of the biggest risers since last year’s draft, Bichette in a year has gone to second round upside pick, to a legit top 20 prospect. There’s some questions around his swing mechanics, but elite bat speed masks much of that at the moment. ETA: 2019

 

23. Anthony Alford, OF Blue Jays | Level: AA | 2017 Stats: .299/.390/.406, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 19 SB

If only Alford could stay healthy for a full season. There’s few prospects with a higher upside, though for a player ranked this highly he comes with a fair amount of risk. There’s no question Alford can hit, get on base, and steal 25+ bags. The question is; how much power is there? ETA: 2018

100. Danny Jansen, C Blue Jays | Level: AAA | 2017 Stats: .323/.400/.484, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 1 SB

Following three and a half uninspiring seasons in the minors, Jansen noticed something off with his eye sight. When he was diagnosed with astigmatism late last season, he started wearing glasses in games, and immediately noticed a huge difference in how he saw the ball. The results followed in 2017, as he climbed three levels of the minors, and finds himself on the cusp of a big league debut. Jansen isn’t a stud in anyone one particular area, but he’s a good all around hitter with contact, plate approach, and above average power. Could be a .280/14/65 player within the next few seasons, with some room for a little more at peak. ETA: 2018

[Boxcar]

Surprised no one posted it but Bo Bitches won MiLB Player or the Year

 

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toronto-blue-jays-prospect-bo-bichette-wins-milby-award-for-top-offensive-player/c-259521444

 

While the homer in me is pleased, that is some kind of snub on Acuna.

[Brownie19]

Surprised no one posted it but Bo Bitches won MiLB Player or the Year

 

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toronto-blue-jays-prospect-bo-bichette-wins-milby-award-for-top-offensive-player/c-259521444

 

I thought we were over the Bo Bitches thing. Still nice to see him get some hardware.

[Olerud363]

Without the Tulo trade they are comfortably in the playoffs.

 

I can understand the trade, but at the time I was ambivalent about it. Was glad to see Reyes gone but did not like the prospect capital given up.

 

BB says he would do the trade again. I doubt many would agree with that.

 

In retrospect you can always cherry pick what didn't work out, or wasn't needed, but that information is obvious only in retrospect.

 

When making forward moves, you will never be able to identify exactly what an individual player will do. The goal is to maximize expected wins, while minimizing downside risk.

 

So say sometime in the future, the Jays are 5 behind mid season and decide to go for it, should they say to their analytics team...

 

"We are but 5 behind, and have the chance to acquire 2 seriously great players and some minor pieces, we calculate, based on the quality of our current team, the quality of our rival, and the greatness of the players we will acquire that this move gives us an excellent change of winning the pennant... however we want to perfect the trade.. so please immediately calculate the following..."

 

1. What will the final win total of our rival be?? If it is 92 we need all the wins we can get, but if it is only 88 we don't need as many wins. So please let us know the exact total so we can optimize the trades.

 

2. Which of the two great players will slump?? Let us know so we only trade for the great player we need.

 

Such exactness is only possible in retrospect.

[Jimcanuck]

In retrospect you can always cherry pick what didn't work out, or wasn't needed, but that information is obvious only in retrospect.

 

When making forward moves, you will never be able to identify exactly what an individual player will do. The goal is to maximize expected wins, while minimizing downside risk.

 

So say sometime in the future, the Jays are 5 behind mid season and decide to go for it, should they say to their analytics team...

 

"We are but 5 behind, and have the chance to acquire 2 seriously great players and some minor pieces, we calculate, based on the quality of our current team, the quality of our rival, and the greatness of the players we will acquire that this move gives us an excellent change of winning the pennant... however we want to perfect the trade.. so please immediately calculate the following..."

 

1. What will the final win total of our rival be?? If it is 92 we need all the wins we can get, but if it is only 88 we don't need as many wins. So please let us know the exact total so we can optimize the trades.

 

2. Which of the two great players will slump?? Let us know so we only trade for the great player we need.

 

Such exactness is only possible in retrospect.

 

Of course.

 

That's not the debate. BB says he would do the Tulo trade over again knowing how it turned out. I don't agree.

[THANOS]

I thought we were over the Bo Bitches thing. Still nice to see him get some hardware.

 

What are we a hive mind? Call him whatever nickname you like, it won't bother me lol.

 

On topic, I'm curious if this, at all, changes his potential Top 100 ranking in early 2018? Regardless, it will be cool to see where he lands when that list surfaces.

[Spanky__99]

What are we a hive mind? Call him whatever nickname you like, it won't bother me lol.

 

On topic, I'm curious if this, at all, changes his potential Top 100 ranking in early 2018? Regardless, it will be cool to see where he lands when that list surfaces.

 

Easy top 20.

[jays4life19]

Blue Jays Organization Report

 

October 27, 2017 By Shi Davidi

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s ongoing breakout season resumed in the Dominican League, where the 18-year-old third baseman was suiting up for Escogido.

 

While on the one hand, playing winter ball allows Guerrero to live out a childhood dream, Blue Jays farm director Gil Kim said, “It's really encouraging for us that he has specific goals that he's working towards."

 

In particular, the priorities for Guerrero are to improve his defensive footwork and range at third base, while continuing his physical development by working with one of the club's strength and conditioning coaches a couple times a week.

 

Guerrero batted .323/.425/.485 in a combined 119 games at low Class A Lansing and high Class A Dunedin this season, establishing himself among a small handful of the game's very best prospects. Helping his cause is that he walked 76 times against 62 strikeouts, demonstrating a command of the strike zone rare for any player, let alone a teenager.

 

With Escogido, “there will be some nights he'll be facing a couple of big leaguers before a packed house, and then there's other nights where there might be more A-ball type guys," Kim said. “What you do get consistently is a pressure-filled environment and talented players. It's a different type of environment and it really helps players improve in handling pressure situations."

 

A start at Double-A New Hampshire is possible for Guerrero in 2018, but right now that's less likely than a return to Dunedin, where he would be positioned for a quick promotion with a strong opening.

 

 

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/vladimir-guerrero-jr-hastens-development/#dzmFt031oMXpmg7S.99

[Spanky__99]

Blue Jays Organization Report

 

October 27, 2017 By Shi Davidi

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s ongoing breakout season resumed in the Dominican League, where the 18-year-old third baseman was suiting up for Escogido.

 

While on the one hand, playing winter ball allows Guerrero to live out a childhood dream, Blue Jays farm director Gil Kim said, “It's really encouraging for us that he has specific goals that he's working towards."

 

In particular, the priorities for Guerrero are to improve his defensive footwork and range at third base, while continuing his physical development by working with one of the club's strength and conditioning coaches a couple times a week.

 

Guerrero batted .323/.425/.485 in a combined 119 games at low Class A Lansing and high Class A Dunedin this season, establishing himself among a small handful of the game's very best prospects. Helping his cause is that he walked 76 times against 62 strikeouts, demonstrating a command of the strike zone rare for any player, let alone a teenager.

 

With Escogido, “there will be some nights he'll be facing a couple of big leaguers before a packed house, and then there's other nights where there might be more A-ball type guys," Kim said. “What you do get consistently is a pressure-filled environment and talented players. It's a different type of environment and it really helps players improve in handling pressure situations."

 

A start at Double-A New Hampshire is possible for Guerrero in 2018, but right now that's less likely than a return to Dunedin, where he would be positioned for a quick promotion with a strong opening.

 

 

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/vladimir-guerrero-jr-hastens-development/#dzmFt031oMXpmg7S.99

 

Thanks brosoff.

[P2F]

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:53[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Mike: Blue Jays fan here. Thoughts on if either/both of Guerrero or Bichette touch the majors next year?

 

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:53[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Eric A Longenhagen: Vlad, yes.

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Everybody FAP, and fap HARD.

[Ray]

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:24[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Oliver: I had the impression that Lourdes Gurriel was on a trajectory to be a fourth outfielder but he's shown power, albeit with no walks, in the AFL, and he's playing in the left side of the infield. Has he shown you enough to boost his stock this fall, either offensively or defensively?

 

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:24[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Eric A Longenhagen: Still a 45 for me. Utility guy.

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[TheHurl]

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:24[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Oliver: I had the impression that Lourdes Gurriel was on a trajectory to be a fourth outfielder but he's shown power, albeit with no walks, in the AFL, and he's playing in the left side of the infield. Has he shown you enough to boost his stock this fall, either offensively or defensively?

 

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:24[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Eric A Longenhagen: Still a 45 for me. Utility guy.

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He's on the 40 and getting paid like a 4th year player next year, we will see a full dose of him this year.

[Boxcar]

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:53[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Mike: Blue Jays fan here. Thoughts on if either/both of Guerrero or Bichette touch the majors next year?

 

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:53[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Eric A Longenhagen: Vlad, yes.

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Everybody FAP, and fap HARD.

 

f***, should've used lotion. I was too hasty.

[glory]

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:53[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Mike: Blue Jays fan here. Thoughts on if either/both of Guerrero or Bichette touch the majors next year?

 

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:53[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Eric A Longenhagen: Vlad, yes.

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Everybody FAP, and fap HARD.

 

Nah, service time.

 

I'll predict he gets called up mid-2019 (when the super 2 cut off ends). Jays know they have a gold mine here. They won't mess with his service clock.

[Boxcar]

Nah, service time.

 

I'll predict he gets called up mid-2019 (when the super 2 cut off ends). Jays know they have a gold mine here. They won't mess with his service clock.

 

Not quite that simple imo. If Vlad is destroying AAA and the Jays are in contention, I think they definitely call him up.

 

Knowing our fragile middle infield, I wonder if when Tulo gets injured, do they move JD to SS and Vlad to 3B?

[THANOS]

Not quite that simple imo. If Vlad is destroying AAA and the Jays are in contention, I think they definitely call him up.

 

Knowing our fragile middle infield, I wonder if when Tulo gets injured, do they move JD to SS and Vlad to 3B?

 

That would be an interesting decision. When Tulo goes down, hopefully that happens.

[Brownie19]

Not quite that simple imo. If Vlad is destroying AAA and the Jays are in contention, I think they definitely call him up.

 

Knowing our fragile middle infield, I wonder if when Tulo gets injured, do they move JD to SS and Vlad to 3B?

 

Our GB pitchers be like:

 

[Boxcar]

Our GB pitchers be like:

 

 

Well Stroman's a f***ing baby and Sanchez looks like a squirrel so I couldn't care less.

[Spanky__99]

He's on the 40 and getting paid like a 4th year player next year, we will see a full dose of him this year.

 

Yup, that's how I see it.

[Bobthe4th]

Surprised no one posted it but Bo Bitches won MiLB Player or the Year

 

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toronto-blue-jays-prospect-bo-bichette-wins-milby-award-for-top-offensive-player/c-259521444

 

Just a small correction - Bo won offensive player of the year.

 

The actual player of the year was Ronald Acuna.

 

Obviously still very impressive for a 19 year old in his second season.

[Ray]

Decision time on a lot of prospects this offseason:

 

Rowdy Tellez

Danny Jansen

Conner Greene

Max Pentecost

Reese McGuire

Thomas Pannone

Jordan Romano

Angel Perdomo

Francisco Rios

Andrew Case

Tim Lopes

Jonathan Davis

Conor Fisk

 

Who would you keep? Who would you expose? Who would you use as trade bait?

 

Not sure I see either Jansen or McGuire starting as the backup C, but I think both would be picked in the Rule 5 so you have to put them on there. And then there's Pentecost as well, although I'm not so sure he gets picked given his injuries and lack of development. I'd keep Pannone for SP depth. Romao is a tossup.

 

Tellez and Greene are very interesting cases. Wonder if either or both are used as trade bait to net us some infield depth or a utility player.

[John_Havok]

Decision time on a lot of prospects this offseason:

 

Rowdy Tellez

Danny Jansen

Conner Greene

Max Pentecost

Reese McGuire

Thomas Pannone

Jordan Romano

Angel Perdomo

Francisco Rios

Andrew Case

Tim Lopes

Jonathan Davis

Conor Fisk

 

Who would you keep? Who would you expose? Who would you use as trade bait?

 

Not sure I see either Jansen or McGuire starting as the backup C, but I think both would be picked in the Rule 5 so you have to put them on there. And then there's Pentecost as well, although I'm not so sure he gets picked given his injuries and lack of development. I'd keep Pannone for SP depth. Romao is a tossup.

 

Tellez and Greene are very interesting cases. Wonder if either or both are used as trade bait to net us some infield depth or a utility player.

 

Keep Jansen, not sure how you'd not protect a guy who hit as well as he did last season over 3 levels as a catcher.

 

McGuire doesn't really matter....he doesn't move the needle.

 

Pentecost is a tricky one, there's pretty legit arguments on both sides.

 

Pannone is a keeper for sure IMO. Maybe a late bloomer, but either way he throws left handed and misses bats enough to be cheap starting depth. Definitely keep imo

[KingKat]

There's definitely an organization that would give Greene a shot as a reliever. Perhaps that organization should be the Jays. I would at the very least, add him to the 40.

[Cbert]

Decision time on a lot of prospects this offseason:

 

Rowdy Tellez

Danny Jansen

Conner Greene

Max Pentecost

Reese McGuire

Thomas Pannone

Jordan Romano

Angel Perdomo

Francisco Rios

Andrew Case

Tim Lopes

Jonathan Davis

Conor Fisk

 

Who would you keep? Who would you expose? Who would you use as trade bait?

 

Not sure I see either Jansen or McGuire starting as the backup C, but I think both would be picked in the Rule 5 so you have to put them on there. And then there's Pentecost as well, although I'm not so sure he gets picked given his injuries and lack of development. I'd keep Pannone for SP depth. Romao is a tossup.

 

Tellez and Greene are very interesting cases. Wonder if either or both are used as trade bait to net us some infield depth or a utility player.

 

Definitely keep Jansen and Pannone. I think I'd keep Tellez because I really want to see what he does now that the family stuff is behind him, and use Greene as a trade chip.

Not sure about Perdomo and Rios. I probably would've said protect a year or so ago, but I don't think either of them did much this year. I'd just leave them off and hope they get through. Romano and Pentecost are the two I'm on the fence about.

 

I guess it depends on what kind of moves they try to make. If they consider moving a guy like Donaldson for some younger, better pitching prospects, then I'd rather hold onto the bats we have and hope some fringe guys pan out. Otherwise, I keep Romano and see if someone will trade for Pentecost.

[KingKat]

Definitely keep Jansen and Pannone. I think I'd keep Tellez because I really want to see what he does now that the family stuff is behind him, and use Greene as a trade chip.

Not sure about Perdomo and Rios. I probably would've said protect a year or so ago, but I don't think either of them did much this year. I'd just leave them off and hope they get through. Romano and Pentecost are the two I'm on the fence about.

 

I guess it depends on what kind of moves they try to make. If they consider moving a guy like Donaldson for some younger, better pitching prospects, then I'd rather hold onto the bats we have and hope some fringe guys pan out. Otherwise, I keep Romano and see if someone will trade for Pentecost.

 

This has already been discussed a fair bit on the board previoulsy but I'll say it again, you can very safely expose Tellez. Typically there are two kind of players that get taken in the rule 5. Pitchers that you can bury at the back of your bullpen and developing offensive player that you can use on your bench. Bat only players like Tellez who just take up room on the bench almost never get selected. Bat only players coming off a sub 300 wOBA season definitely do not get selected. If you expose Tellez, you'll get to see what Tellez can do with the family stuff behind him in the minor league system for the Jays not on some other team's active roster.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think the only keepers are Jansen and Pannone. Maybe Mcguire as well.

 

Can't see anyone taking Pentecost. Greene should probably be traded or moved to the bullpen.