GDT: Jays @ Rays - Buehrle vs Ramirez 7:10PM EDT

[BigCecil]

here is pillars catch last night

 

My fav of his. Long run - great route and jump - full extension and hanging on with a lot of impact.

[Jimcanuck]

Pillar would return cost controlled young pitching - what the Jays need. Indians could use a CF like Pillar. Part of a package for Carrasco?

[baubau]

Pillar would return cost controlled young pitching - what the Jays need. Indians could use a CF like Pillar. Part of a package for Carrasco?

 

In a heart beat. Sure they want Osuna and potentially another prospect like Alford on top.

[Jonn]

In a heart beat. Sure they want Osuna and potentially another prospect like Alford on top.

 

I still don't think that would be enough.

[Maahfaace]

Pillar would return cost controlled young pitching - what the Jays need. Indians could use a CF like Pillar. Part of a package for Carrasco?

 

Id do that deal in a heartbeat. Would take alot more than pillar though.

[nextyear]

All PEDS aside, early 30's would be a reasonable age of regression, but in Pillars case, he may be short lived as diving on a concrete slab, covered in fake grass will probably shorten his career. One bad landing for superman may trigger a host of problems with hitting and fielding. Right now he makes many fans wanting to watch the Jays and also start comparing him with Devo.

 

Many people are comparing Pillar with established MLB players. I see him as a future All Star.

 

I am sure Pillar will be on the Blue Jays team for many years to come.

[baubau]

I still don't think that would be enough.

 

Meh. 4 WAR CF, starting pitcher with potential and likely at worst a pen arm, top 100 prospect. It's a lot and can't imagine them not thinking about it.

[BigCecil]

Pillar would return cost controlled young pitching - what the Jays need. Indians could use a CF like Pillar. Part of a package for Carrasco?

 

In a heart beat. Sure they want Osuna and potentially another prospect like Alford on top.

 

I still don't think that would be enough.

 

No way you do that deal throwing in Osuana who they may be targeting to move into rotation. Addition by subtraction.

 

Seems like none of us Jays fans believe the 4 WAR value of Pillar this yr is sustainable. He is cheap and controllable. Might look better through the eyes of another organization?

[nextyear]

No way you do that deal throwing in Osuana who they may be targeting to move into rotation. Addition by subtraction.

 

Seems like none of us Jays fans believe the 4 WAR value of Pillar this yr is sustainable. He is cheap and controllable. Might look better through the eyes of another organization?

 

"None of us Jays fans" - I am sure many, including myself, see him as getting even better in the future.

[Jonn]

No way you do that deal throwing in Osuana who they may be targeting to move into rotation. Addition by subtraction.

 

Seems like none of us Jays fans believe the 4 WAR value of Pillar this yr is sustainable. He is cheap and controllable. Might look better through the eyes of another organization?

 

I don't think we should trade Pillar. I was just saying Cleveland would probably want more. As if Pillar is sustainable its hard to tell. I can see him getting better if he becomes more patient its very difficult to imagine his current approach will give him long term success.

[burlingtonbandit]

Dalton is an excellent 4th OF next season. And if Pillar fades you have options. Besides another year of spot duty will not hurt him, JB is getting up there. Patience people, three nothing wrong with depth and the Jays have this is spades.

 

Much rather trade Pompey for a SP and sign a 4th OF for cheap. Pompey has much more value than a 4th OF I would hope.

[nextyear]

Pillar and Gardner are completely different players.

 

 

The Blue Jays would do Pillar + Osuna + Alford for Carrasco. The Indians would not.

 

 

No realistic Jays fans. You can't really expect any player to get better in the future unless they're very young.

 

Pillar is young. I think I am far more realistic than you are.

[BigCecil]

He'll be 27 next year, which is peak or slightly post-peak. Think about what would happen if every player improved every year. They'd end up in the same place. These players don't actually improve statistically until the age of 30 like many people believe.

 

That's fair but we have also seen our share of anomolies like JD, Jose and Edwin who numbers improved dramatically when they were not very young. I don't have the same hopes for Pillar.

[BigCecil]

I don't think we should trade Pillar. I was just saying Cleveland would probably want more. As if Pillar is sustainable its hard to tell. I can see him getting better if he becomes more patient its very difficult to imagine his current approach will give him long term success.

 

I agree. As I think about it I they would probably want more than what North said for him. I wonder what the failed package was we were discussing previously for Carrasco was.

[art_vandelay275]

In a heart beat. Sure they want Osuna and potentially another prospect like Alford on top.

 

Apparently, there was interest in Pillar last year at the trade deadline. I guess we will never know who the Jays were asking/targeting but apparently Pillar along with Nolin were 2 guys that AA had mentioned that he was unwilling to give up at that time. I'd think for sure Pillar's value has gone up after what he's done this season

[king166]

They were going to give up Pillar and Nolin to get half a year of Chase Headley, IIRC. Which was a decent idea at the time.

 

Pillar's value has definitely gone up. I don't think other teams would view him as a blue-chip piece or anything, though.

 

I think Juan Francisco was involved in that Headley deal too

[art_vandelay275]

Specifically for next year, I think AA/Gibby are going to make Pillar the starting CF on opening day. They are going to learn from this year with what happened to Pompey and with Pompey getting no real playing time this year, there is nothing that shows he is ready. I guess they may consider Revere but I think it's pretty clear his game is more suited to LF than CF.

 

The only scenario where I see they trade Pillar next year if we become sellers at the trade deadline. Of course the ninja-GM may pull something out of the hat and we end up getting a CF back in an off-season trade. I wouldn't put it past him

[nextyear]

He'll be 27 next year, which is peak or slightly post-peak. Think about what would happen if every player improved every year. They'd end up in the same place. These players don't actually improve statistically until the age of 30 like many people believe.

 

Some of the projection algorithms on fangraphs put more weight on more recent data than older data: the different methods are explained at this link - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/projections/

 

In Pillar's case there isn't sufficient data, but even according to fangraphs' methods of prediction, recent data should be weighed more heavily than past data.

 

In Pillar's first 438 plates appearances he had a wRC+ 67 (Aug 14, 2013 to May 31, 2015) - http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=12434&position=OF&type=&gds=2013-08-14&gde=2015-05-31&season= , in his most recent 415 plate appearances (June 2, 2015 to October 2, 2015) he has a wRC+ of 109 - http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=12434&position=OF&type=&gds=2015-06-02&gde=2015-10-02&season= (this period includes both hot streaks and slumps)

 

I think that many Blue Jays fans are still judging Pillar by his performance when he was still relatively new to the major leagues and young (I wouldn't apply this rationale to Colabello because of his age). There is a common sense reason and fangraphs projection systems rationale for applying more weight to Pillar's more recent data than his early data.

 

In addition to Pillar's offensive improvements, his defensive abilities have been evident since 2013 as indicated by his fangraphs stats - http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12434&position=OF

[nextyear]

Kevin Pillar pre-2015: 232 PA, 77 OPS+, hit well for multiple seasons in high minors at advanced age

Dalton Pompey pre-2016: 145 PA, 85 OPS+, hit well for multiple seasons in high minors at young age

 

Or maybe they learned that from Kevin Pillar that 2016 is a good time to make Pompey the full-time regular.

 

Or my goodness. You are saying that Pillar's stats in 2015 should justify starting Pompey in 2016? No, no, no, no, no; this is not rational thought!

[art_vandelay275]

Kevin Pillar pre-2015: 232 PA, 77 OPS+, hit well for multiple seasons in high minors at advanced age

Dalton Pompey pre-2016: 145 PA, 85 OPS+, hit well for multiple seasons in high minors at young age

 

Or maybe they learned that from Kevin Pillar that 2016 is a good time to make Pompey the full-time regular.

 

I know that's what the numbers say and I am not disagreeing with them. I am more saying what AA/Gibby will do based on the kind of management style they have shown so far. I just don't see Gibby as a quantitative/numbers kind of a guy. Maybe more so AA but he'll likely leave the decision to Gibby. With Gibby, it's the old school and "why mess with something that ain't broke". We saw that multiple times down the stretch

[nextyear]

Specifically for next year, I think AA/Gibby are going to make Pillar the starting CF on opening day. They are going to learn from this year with what happened to Pompey and with Pompey getting no real playing time this year, there is nothing that shows he is ready. I guess they may consider Revere but I think it's pretty clear his game is more suited to LF than CF.

 

The only scenario where I see they trade Pillar next year if we become sellers at the trade deadline. Of course the ninja-GM may pull something out of the hat and we end up getting a CF back in an off-season trade. I wouldn't put it past him

 

I agree with your assessment. I was a big fan of Pompey in 2014 and hoped he would succeed this year, but when he didn't, Pillar stepped in and helped the team get to the post season. Now I am a big fan of Kevin Pillar. Dalton Pompey will have to prove that he can do better than Pillar before fans should consider replacing Pillar with Pompey.

[art_vandelay275]

I agree with your assessment. I was a big fan of Pompey in 2014 and hoped he would succeed this year, but when he didn't, Pillar stepped in and helped the team get to the post season. Now I am a big fan of Kevin Pillar. Dalton Pompey will have to prove that he can do better than Pillar before fans should consider replacing Pillar with Pompey.

 

Honestly, I am not more of a fan of Pillar than Pompey. Both intrigues me for their own reasons. I love to watch Pillar but at the same time, Pompey intrigues me especially with one report where I read that Tigers were asking for either Pompey or Alford in addition to Norris/Boyd in the Price trade.

 

I think this analysis and debate is interesting to us fans. But to me, it is a separate discussion than the people running the team and what _they_ will do based on their past record. I'll try it this way - As long as Gibby is the manager opening day, Pillar is going to be a CF unless AA pulls off an off-season trade where he gets a CF in return and Pillars ships out

[o2cui2i]

No, I didn't say that. I have not yet offered an opinion on who should play next season.

 

I suggested that the idea that 2015's events prove that the Blue Jays were mistaken to trust Pompey over Pillar in 2015 and shouldn't trust Pompey is 2016 is faulty, since Pompey is now in the exact situation Pillar was entering this season. If you believe the Blue Jays should have been quicker to trust Pillar entering this season, you should be fine with Pompey being trusted next season.

 

it's a good problem to have going forward. having too many guys for spots is better than how things have been the last years where the jays barely had positions covered and if anyone got hurt the jays were screwed.

[Frenchsoup]

I think AA's two biggest trade chips this off-season are Pompey and Goins. Don't be surprised to see them moved.

[nextyear]

No, I didn't say that. I have not yet offered an opinion on who should play next season.

 

I suggested that the idea that 2015's events prove that the Blue Jays were mistaken to trust Pompey over Pillar in 2015 and shouldn't trust Pompey is 2016 is faulty, since Pompey is now in the exact situation Pillar was entering this season. If you believe the Blue Jays should have been quicker to trust Pillar entering this season, you should be fine with Pompey being trusted next season.

 

Selecting Pillar in CF was a risk that was necessitated by Pompey have a poor start in the field and at the plate. Selecting Pillar turned out to be a good move for the Blue Jays, however, starting Pompey over Pillar would be an extreme risk now that Pillar's abilities have been demonstrated. The strategy of selecting Pompey over Pillar in 2016 (as indicated by others) seems like a very high risk proposition for a GM and manager whereas starting Pillar is a relatively safe decision.

[dineke]

Why not both? Revere is not very good defensively and it's not like he's an offensive juggernaut(although he has been very good as a jay). I think if Pompey is given a chance next year it will more likely be that Revere is moved instead of Pillar.

[nextyear]

I think AA's two biggest trade chips this off-season are Pompey and Goins. Don't be surprised to see them moved.

 

I would put Pompey at the same level as Devon Travis in 2014 while he was in the minor leagues; in other words, at the level that Devon Travis was when he was a known talent in the minor leagues but an unknown talent in the major leagues. Pompey has potential but he probably won't get more than an Anthony Gose-type player in return (which is what the Blue Jays traded for Devon Travis).

 

Goins has turned out to be a good player but unless he excels in the post season he probably won't get much in a trade because there just isn't enough data to show that his improved performance can be sustained (although it might be).

[Jimcanuck]

Pillar trade value > Pompey trade value

 

Talent wise, I'd take Pompey

 

2016 Pillar might be better than Pompey, but 2017 and beyond, my money's on Pompey

[dineke]

I would put Pompey at the same level as Devon Travis in 2014 while he was in the minor leagues; in other words, at the level that Devon Travis was when he was a known talent in the minor leagues but an unknown talent in the major leagues. Pompey has potential but he probably won't get more than an Anthony Gose-type player in return (which is what the Blue Jays traded for Devon Travis).

 

Goins has turned out to be a good player but unless he excels in the post season he probably won't get much in a trade because there just isn't enough data to show that his improved performance can be sustained (although it might be).

 

Uh no, Pompey was a top 50 prospect heading into this year and is still 22.

[o2cui2i]

Why not both? Revere is not very good defensively and it's not like he's an offensive juggernaut(although he has been very good as a jay). I think if Pompey is given a chance next year it will more likely be that Revere is moved instead of Pillar.

 

he's a career .300 hitter who hits against R and L pitching. He's a pretty good defender, but has a s***** arm. He's a great leadoff hitter/LF.