Ace worth the money - Price or perhaps Greinke?

[labadee]

What if in 3 years no one wants him with that big contract and he has been either Injured/regressed with age?

 

AA will make it happen, just like he made vernon wells disappear

[ValiantJaysFan]

5 year contract for Price with team and player options for 6th and 7th year. As much as we worry about the contract being an albatross down the line, by the time it becomes that we we'd be rebuilding anyway in all likelihood so who cares. Do what you need to do to compete for the next few years even if it means suffering down the line. We've suffered for 22 years, we can handle it.

[sdyment]

What about a 7/8 year deal with an opt out for Price after year two or three? Would Shapiro be behind something like this?

[intentional wok]

I don't think anyone is going to pay $200 million for Jason Heyward just because he's not super old

 

I was just thinking the other day that Heyward would probably be a really good pickup.

 

Probably best to not guess with AA though. s*** just happens with no warning when he's on the job.

[Mikeleelop]

How about sign both price and grienke

 

Go for high hope

[reedjohnsonfan]

Not as an actual skill, it's just harder / takes longer to evaluate. There's enough of a sample to determine that he's obviously a very high quality defender.

 

Quantitatively it takes longer to evaluate? I think it's pretty clear some guys are good fielders right when they come up, I'm sure you'd agree. So for example, I think Gose is a pretty good outfielder but fangraphs says otherwise for this season (as we saw evidently last weekend). If the statistics or actual results are pretty volatile, teams might be risk averse and offer lower contracts to good defenders. So not really a market inefficiency.

[Dick_Pole]

History with Shapiro suggests he won't do it. However, if there is one pitcher you would give a 7 year contract to, is it Price? What I'm confident about is under Shapiro if they do sign Price, they will be as sure as they possibly can be that this is a good move. They'll probably hire a team of actuaries to analyze his likelihood to get injured or decline with time. If it was a move made under Godfrey I think half of us fans would jump in front of a bus.

[Followthelight]

I love Price, but not sure he is worth 25-30 mill for 6-7 years, don't think that's a great investment. After saying that i'd love for him to be here.

[Professional Hitter]

AA will make it happen, just like he made vernon wells disappear

 

and jose reyes...

[Followthelight]

AA will make it happen, just like he made vernon wells disappear

 

LOL true, I am shocked he got rid of Wells contract and Reyes, and managed to get tulo out of Reyes.

[reedjohnsonfan]

and jose reyes...

 

A+ profile pic. Well done.

[Professional Hitter]

A+ profile pic. Well done.

 

Thanks - I really wanted to capture the essence of the Buck n Tabby experience

[Mozzer]

The Jays won't truly go after Price, but they will give the impression that they did. Maybe chalk it up to 5 year max policy on contracts. No way they pay the 25-30 million a year to get him. Price knows it. AA knows it. Conversation is moot, but I would do it. Even though in 4+ years the contract will likely be awful, this team could be in a window to seriously contend for the next 3 years and he's a great fit to lead the rotation. Won't happen though, so enjoy him while you can.

[Trouba95]

We're supposedly a "big market" team, yet can't pony up for Price and contend for a few years.

[Trouba95]

Trade him in year 3 or 4 of the deal before he falls off.

[Candide]

too lazy to check the back threads, but was there any poster who hated the Reyes contract at the time of the Marlins trade?

 

I wonder if people will feel the same about Tulowitzki in about 2-3 years time

[RealAccountant]

Trade him in year 3 or 4 of the deal before he falls off.

 

Why would anyone trade for an overpaid obsolete asset

[Krylian]

Why would anyone trade for an overpaid obsolete asset

 

Sarcasm?

[crederer]

You pretty much need an ace to be a contending team. May as well be price as they at least know what they're getting with him (personality wise, etc).

[TBJESE]

Not as an actual skill, it's just harder / takes longer to evaluate. There's enough of a sample to determine that he's obviously a very high quality defender.

 

The skill isn't volatile but it's the most perishable.

 

The performance is extremely volatile, which a) makes evaluation of the skill less certain, and makes the expected results more volatile.

 

For these reasons, it's pretty rational to pay less for defence unless you have a way to systematically reduce the risk.

 

too lazy to check the back threads, but was there any poster who hated the Reyes contract at the time of the Marlins trade?

 

I wonder if people will feel the same about Tulowitzki in about 2-3 years time

 

Unlikely. The Tulo contract is much better because a) Tulo is a better player now than Reyes was then, and salary inflation makes Tulo's deal comparatively cheaper.

Edited September 8, 2015 by TBJESE
Avoid double-post

[BTS]

The skill isn't volatile but it's the most perishable.

 

The performance is extremely volatile, which a) makes evaluation of the skill less certain, and makes the expected results more volatile.

 

For these reasons, it's pretty rational to pay less for defence unless you have a way to systematically reduce the risk.

 

 

 

Unlikely. The Tulo contract is much better because a) Tulo is a better player now than Reyes was then, and salary inflation makes Tulo's deal comparatively cheaper.

 

I'm not sure that this is actually true. Reyes at the time was projected at 4-5 wins. Tulo won't be projected higher than that next year.

[Followthelight]

Tulo is still a better player and is better defensively, so no the deal won;t be as bad as Reyes.

[Stangstag]

I'm not sure that this is actually true. Reyes at the time was projected at 4-5 wins. Tulo won't be projected higher than that next year.

 

One thing though is that alot of Reyes' value was tied to speed. Speed the first thing to decline due to age. Tulowitzki's game doesn't rely on speed at all.

I think we had 1 year of Reyes and his sick speed before he just kinda stopped stealing bases and stuff. His defense also declined, and his value has plummeted.

[BTS]

One thing though is that alot of Reyes' value was tied to speed. Speed the first thing to decline due to age. Tulowitzki's game doesn't rely on speed at all.

I think we had 1 year of Reyes and his sick speed before he just kinda stopped stealing bases and stuff. His defense also declined, and his value has plummeted.

 

This is true. Tulo's value will be tied to his bat. We know he's a good defender, probably in the +5 area. That will most likely slip gradually to below average over the next few years. His big ticket is the bat. If his 2015 is the status quo going forward, he's an albatross as soon as next year. If it's just a down season, he should retain value better than Reyes did.

[SSTP]

I'd target two 2nd tier guys like Anderson, Chen, Kennedy, Latos, Leake, and Kazmir instead.

 

Stro

Leake

Chen

Hutch

Osuna/Dirty/etc..

 

I really like anderson, but super scared of his durability. Love the GB%.

Kennedy will be a steal for someone in a good pitchers park.

 

A very solid rotation with tons of upside.

 

I love Price but I think with our offence two of these guys will be better value. Close AAV but like 3 years less term

[Ehjays]

Let's say that we get the money to go after an ace next year (I know it's a big if as we don't have any ideas on the policies of the new regime), for the sake of discussion on an off-day, I am wondering whether Price is the right guy. The last Cleveland start was a case in point. They got 2 in the 7th even though Price gave us the shutdown after we scored in the 5th. Even with the Bautista bobble and all that, Raburn and Sands were legit hits IMO and of course there was the Santana walk. I was expecting that a 2-1 lead would be all a "true" ace needed. Note that I am not blaming Price for that inning. After all Bautista clearly misplayed the ball and arguaby, Sands' hit was a bit of a "seeing eye" since if Tulo had played a little more to his right, it might have been a routine ground out. This is more of a hypothetical...

 

From a character point of view, there is no doubt that advantage goes to Price. It's not that Greinke is a bad guy from what I read, it's just that he's a bit of a flake; he's "out there". Also Greinke is turning 32 in Oct whereas Price just turned 30.

 

I'm talking about FA and I'm assuming Greinke is going to opt out. Other notable potential candidates are Cueto, Zimmerman, Fister, Kazmir, Samardzija

 

Personally, I'd be giddy if we ended up with either Price or Greinke though probably not Cueto.

 

Greinke is turning 32 that might fit right in with our 5 year policy....no way he gets a seven year deal. And thats if he would play for the Jays.

 

I would sooner have Greinke for 5 than Price for 7.

 

And Heyward, he will get alot. At least 150 million. Not alot of guys with a career WAR over 29 at age 25.

[Stangstag]

Greinke is turning 32 that might fit right in with our 5 year policy....no way he gets a seven year deal. And thats if he would play for the Jays.

 

I would sooner have Greinke for 5 than Price for 7.

 

And Heyward, he will get alot. At least 150 million. Not alot of guys with a career WAR over 29 at age 25.

 

I think you're wrong there.

[JFD]

I would be more comfortable giving a big contract to Grienke but I'd be happy with Price. at least with Greinke he's already successfully converted from a power pitcher to a control pitcher while remaining ace status, so you know he wont fall off a cliff any time soon. not so sure Price can make that transition but he should be a good power pitcher ace for at least a couple more years.

[Ehjays]

I think you're wrong there.

 

Really?? I don't believe he will get a 7 year deal.

I think he will get a GREAT deal with a very high AAV just not 7

 

just my opinion

[BigCecil]

Greinke is turning 32 that might fit right in with our 5 year policy....no way he gets a seven year deal. And thats if he would play for the Jays.

 

I would sooner have Greinke for 5 than Price for 7.

 

And Heyward, he will get alot. At least 150 million. Not alot of guys with a career WAR over 29 at age 25.

 

I think you're wrong there.

 

Really?? I don't believe he will get a 7 year deal.

I think he will get a GREAT deal with a very high AAV just not 7

 

just my opinion

 

To state the obvious nobody knows yet what the market will be for arms of the calibre we will see this off season but you have to think Max S is the floor.

 

Some of the teams with deep pockets have not achieved what they wanted to this season in part because of a lack of rotation strength and I expect they will spend big taking that risk in order to maintain or address that gap.