Jon Harris Panic time ?

[Trentclapperton]

Is it time to panic ...?

[GD]

for reference

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa658929&position=P

[King]

for reference

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa658929&position=P

 

he might be referring to this

 

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_25_boiasx_vanasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

[venema20]

Wouldn't panic just yet. Still very early, but early results are disappointing.

 

It has been a long year for him and is adjusting to pro ball. His walk rates are way out of whack so they should hopefully come down soon. Does anyone have gb % or will that be tough to get?

 

He fell on draft day because he struggled a bit down the stretch IIRC. So hopefully he hasnt peaked and still has room to grow. The one thing that worries me is that he seems like he has average stuff but no real plus pitches. Dont want to see another safe college arm that turns into McGuire or Jenkins.

 

Let's see how next year goes before we really start to panic. Give him a fresh start in pro ball. Still have a lot of hope in him to be a middle rotation guy

[baubau]

He'll pull a Norris and take the league by storm I tells ya!

Jokes aside, baseball is the hardest sport to draft for. So we're bound to have a miss. Not saying he's a miss yet and hope he can get it together soon.

[Hipfan]

High BABIP and BB rate, but decent K rate. Walks need to go down but if he can keep the K rate up while lowering the walks he should have much better results. A couple of months into his first pro season is not the time to panic. You have to give him two years at least before you start to worry.

[Maahfaace]

High BABIP and BB rate, but decent K rate. Walks need to go down but if he can keep the K rate up while lowering the walks he should have much better results. A couple of months into his first pro season is not the time to panic. You have to give him two years at least before you start to worry.

 

if he was an 18 year old high school pick, I'd agree with you, but with him turning 22 in Oct i would say there is some cause for concern. Panic? not quite at that level but definitely concerning.

[nonamejays]

Doesn't matter much, AA will turn him plus a guy like Pillar into Lorenzo Cain or some other ridiculous rip off like the Tulo and Donaldson deals.

[KingKat]

He'll pull a Norris and take the league by storm I tells ya!

Jokes aside, baseball is the hardest sport to draft for. So we're bound to have a miss. Not saying he's a miss yet and hope he can get it together soon.

 

Norris actually had much better peripherals but I see your general point. MiLB numbers are tricky because sample sized can be quite small. Beyond level of competition, that's another reason not to read too much into results in the low minors. Anyways, Harris wasn't exactly the sexiest player the Jays have ever drafted and that's not really on the Jays. The draft had dried up a fair bit by the time they made their selection. This wasn't like say SRF of Hoffman where you start thinking immediately about where they rank amongst the team's top prospects. Which isn't to say that he can't be a guy. It's still early. We'll just wait and see and keep expectations fairly low in the interim.

[KingKat]

He was considered a safe pick the last safe pick before that was Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins.

 

Yeah "safe pick" is a dubious concept. The JPR era was littered with so called "safe picks" that busted. In that era "safe" was practically a euphemism for "less upside". More recently, Max Pentecost was considered a pretty safe pick but then he ran into injury trouble, which could happen with any draft pick, and his outlook got a lot murkier. You just never know. And even when you start to think you know, you still might not know (Pentecost for instance could certainly go either way at this point). A lot can change between the time you draft a guy and the time he should be ready. Pitchers, hitters, high school guys, college guys. No one is ever entirely safe. It's just different probabilities and overall baseball has the lowest draft pick probabilities of the major sports.

[Jimcanuck]

Doesn't matter much, AA will turn him plus a guy like Pillar into Lorenzo Cain or some other ridiculous rip off like the Tulo and Donaldson deals.

 

Tulo was not a rip-off deal

[Angrioter]

8.02 K/9 and 0.27 HR/9 doesn't say anything, but that +5.00 ERA

[Krylian]

Doesn't matter much, AA will turn him plus a guy like Pillar into Lorenzo Cain or some other ridiculous rip off like the Tulo and Donaldson deals.

 

Ha. I honestly haven't heard the term 'rip off' in years.

 

Thanks.

[z3r0s]

its basically a good idea to just never take first year results too seriously. More of a sample size now than in the past with an earlier signing deadline, but let these guys have an off-season and start fresh before you start judging them (positive or negative).

[Krylian]

its basically a good idea to just never take first year results too seriously. More of a sample size now than in the past with an earlier signing deadline, but let these guys have an off-season and start fresh before you start judging them (positive or negative).

 

Why would they do that? Then people can't scream that the sky is falling.

 

Look back at Nicolino's first season with Vancouver. GOAT!!!

[youngtea]

Roy Halladay was horrendous when he was 22 and pitching in AAA.

 

5.50 ERA with a 2-3 record.

 

Take your time and figure out what needs to be improved. That's the entire point of the minors.

[GD]

Late first round pitchers in flat drafts generally aren't where studs are found. AA can miss every once in a while.

[DuckDuckGose]

He's thrown almost double his career high in innings before this season. You'd obviously want him to put up better numbers but at the same time so issues with fatigue should be expected given the huge jump in workload.

[Krylian]

Assuming no injury....let's see how he does when he has a full spring training and has a full season in pro ball. I'm guessing they're patient and he starts in Lansing...easy enough to move him up quickly if he shows he's advanced and ready to be challenged.

[DuckDuckGose]

Late first round pitchers in flat drafts generally aren't where studs are found. AA can miss every once in a while.

 

Stroman - 22nd overall

 

Syndergaard - 38th overall

 

Sanchez - 34th overall

[Captain Adama]

Stroman - 22nd overall

 

Syndergaard - 38th overall

 

Sanchez - 34th overall

 

Late first round pitchers in flat drafts generally aren't where studs are found. AA can miss every once in a while.

 

There you go.

[TwistedLogic]

he might be referring to this

 

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_25_boiasx_vanasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

 

This basically guarantees that Harris is going to turn into a super prospect.

[L54]

There you go.

 

You aren't trying to say that a draft that featured Correa, Buxton, Zunino, Gausman, Heaney, A. Russell, Giolito, C. Seager, Wacha, and Stroman in the FIRST round was a good draft, are you?

[DuckDuckGose]

There you go.

 

It's 2 months after the draft, far too early to call it flat. It lacked elite talent at the very top but the rest of the draft seemed fairly average. I'm also sure you can go back through any "flat" draft and find stud pitchers taken somewhere near the end of the first round. Pitchers are a crap shoot and taking them high is extremely risky in any year.

[dineke]

Whoa first round pick doesn't pan out? PANAC!!!

[Captain Adama]

It's 2 months after the draft, far too early to call it flat. It lacked elite talent at the very top but the rest of the draft seemed fairly average. I'm also sure you can go back through any "flat" draft and find stud pitchers taken somewhere near the end of the first round. Pitchers are a crap shoot and taking them high is extremely risky in any year.

 

Of course, but this draft was really weak in both aspects of depth and high end talent, you'll always find talent in any draft, but one like this isn't the best place to start.

[DuckDuckGose]

Of course, but this draft was really weak in both aspects of depth and high end talent, you'll always find talent in any draft, but one like this isn't the best place to start.

 

No one knows how deep a MLB draft is 2 months after it's completed. It takes far longer than that.

 

Pick any draft and you'll find examples. Here's '08; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Major_League_Baseball_Draft

 

Yankees took Gerrit Cole at 28th, Cubs got Cashner at 19, Cards got Lynn at 39 and ARI got Miley at 43

[Nafro]

Lol, this thread will become relevant in 2017 perhaps, until than, let's just let him adjust to pro ball.

[Jimcanuck]

in his 8 games at AA in 2012, Stroman had a 6.75 BB/9

 

way too early to panic

[King]

in his 8 games at AA in 2012, Stroman had a 6.75 BB/9

 

way too early to panic

I don't agree with the Stroman/Harris comparison, it seems weak.

 

1. AA is a way higher level than the NWL (A-)

2. In Stromans "8 games" he pitched a grand total of.. 8 innings

http://i.imgur.com/aY1XhdF.png

 

In the case of Jon Harris, there is reason to be concerned because of the reports that his stuff has taken a step back. I agree that it's too early to jump off the ledge, though.

http://i.imgur.com/lqjpbGk.png