General Discussion Thread

[GD]

News and notes articles are fluff pieces.

 

Baubau, how busy are you this week?

[NorthOf49]

News and notes articles are fluff pieces.

 

Baubau, how busy are you this week?

No they aren't! It'd just be a bunch of links, a comment on the Hutch decision, a comment about Dickey's option situation, a comment on Tulo and a comment on Donaldson's MVP campaign. Good, cheap content. Did you know you've only written one article (the Martin pop-ups one) in the past month?

[GD]

Lol, fluff. Yes, North, I'm well aware of how busy I've been and it hasn't been entirely pleasant.

[NorthOf49]

Lol, fluff. Yes, North, I'm well aware of how busy I've been and it hasn't been entirely pleasant.

I just meant that in the sense that I want to help you come up with easily-written articles. I'm aware of the struggle.

 

I think of fluff as being the cheerleading "Player X is great/Jays are so good!" article. Among BlueJaysPlus's last few articles are "Ryan Goins changed his approach," "Josh Donaldson is amazing," "Chris Colabello is really good," "this is the best Jays team ever." That's what I don't like writing... biased/sensational stuff. Catching up with the team by running down some news and offering objective opinions doesn't need to be fluff.

[baubau]

News and notes articles are fluff pieces.

 

Baubau, how busy are you this week?

 

My schedule is pretty much in the air. I do forex trading and the market has been a gong f***ing show. It could get wild and I'll easily be distracted or it could be easily tempered and I have nothing but time on my hands. I am working on article on the pen right now so it'll be in line with the "fluff" pen stuff. Unless just scrap that for this week and focus on a fluff piece?

[NorthOf49]

Pen fluff is fine, since they actually have a good pen and some relievers aren't getting their due from Gibby or the media (Hendriks, Lowe, Cecil). If you want a negative piece idea, you could write about how Dickey and Estrada are liable to fall apart, leaving the Jays rotation in a bind. Rotation depth is an issue.

[baubau]

Pen fluff is fine, since they actually have a good pen and some relievers aren't getting their due from Gibby or the media (Hendriks, Lowe, Cecil). If you want a negative piece idea, you could write about how Dickey and Estrada are liable to fall apart, leaving the Jays rotation in a bind. Rotation depth is an issue.

 

I was going to do that for my future article but isn't Havoc working on a Estrada piece already? Seems like Dickey would be a great followup article for him.

[GD]

Mention Matt Shoemaker in the article! Lol

 

I literally haven't even had the werewithal to post this: I'd actually like to pen an Osuna/Hendriks article. I'll have one day off this week; I'll set aside my time and maybe some weekend time if I need it to do that.

[NorthOf49]

Okay I have a few free minutes right now so I'll see if I can pump out a News and Notes piece.

 

Mention Matt Shoemaker in the article! Lol

 

I literally haven't even had the werewithal to post this: I'd actually like to pen an Osuna/Hendriks article. I'll have one day off this week; I'll set aside my time and maybe some weekend time if I need it to do that.

Yay do it! I like that article concept a lot. People will think it's click-bait hyperbole but it isn't.

[NorthOf49]

There, I just wrote 800 words on a bus + subway from my phone, with news and notes for the team. I'll probably use this format going forward. Very easy to write and you can still be analytical.

[baubau]

There, I just wrote 800 words on a bus + subway from my phone, with news and notes for the team. I'll probably use this format going forward. Very easy to write and you can still be analytical.

 

 

Jk No49! Nice. I am almost done my article on the pen as well. Its a little long and per usu I'll post here for feedback before I put it up.

[NorthOf49]

Admin, can we get Intentional Wok involved? He is smart (is doing well and makes good comments in the Premier League) and offered to be an editor in the main board thread.

[baubau]

Something I've just written up quickly. Shoot me some comments suggestions and such peeps.

 

The Bulls in the Pen

 

The 2014 season began with a lot of promise for the Jays, having taken a commanding lead of the AL East division early in the year. However, it ended with the Jays looking from the outside into the post-season. General Manager Alex Anthopoulos publically blamed the bullpen, which was a strength for the team in 2013, as the reason for their downfall.

 

High expectations were set by fans and media alike but for whatever reason, Anthopolous mostly failed to bolster the bullpen from the free agent crop. The list of big names -- among them David Robertson, Andrew Miller, and Luke Gregerson -- slowly shortened until it became clear the Blue Jays would enter the season using the assets at hand. A-ball rookies Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna were both handed high leverage roles.

 

Due to the breakout performance of Liam Hendriks, whom was reacquired in a trade during the offseason from the Roayls, and surprise rookie sensation Roberto Osuna, the Jays rank 7th in the league in WAR for their bullpen.

 

http://i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac23/jessieg235813/Bpen%20WAR_zpssv00hwzj.png

 

In terms of Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP), a statistic that estimates a pitcher’s expected run prevention independent of the performance of their defense the Jays pen ranks 5th at 3.40 and due to some luck as well as much improved defensive team behind them, the Pen’s ERA at 3.13 has outperformed their xFIP.

 

http://i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac23/jessieg235813/xfip%20vs%20era%20team_zpspdiiud4s.png

 

Lastly, the Swinging Strike. Our own Spencer Estey already broke down why swinging strikes are important. The Jays have had hitters look silly, ranking 9th best in the league.

 

http://i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac23/jessieg235813/swstr%20vs%20avg%20team_zpsirjar8uk.png

 

Individually the Blue Jays top 3 relievers Osuna, Hendricks, Cecil and newly acquired reinformcement Marke Lowe, rank low in xFIP all below the league average for qualified relievers at 3.60.

 

http://i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac23/jessieg235813/BJS%20vs_zpsnfidjlg2.png

 

Among qualified relievers, the average SwStr% is 12% thus anything higher is ideal. Only Liam Hendriks ranks below average from the group at 10.3%.

 

http://i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac23/jessieg235813/Swst%20vs%20average%20player_zpshirzckw7.png

 

While the Blue Jays may have missed out in 2014 in part due to their pen, the Bulls in the Pen they have this year will not be a limiting factor rather a contribution for this team’s push into the post season and more.

Edited August 25, 2015 by baubau

[baubau]

Doing this little fluff article, I am very happy SD didn't trade Kimbrel to NYY. Good god that Pen would just be rednok to new levels if they did.

[GD]

"Osuan" ctrl F and you'll find the typo

 

I'm home tomorrow, had a change of plans, so I have two days free coming up and can write. I kinda really like your article as a seguay into my own Hendriks/Osuna piece, baubau.

 

I'll PM admin about wok, and wok too lol

[baubau]

"Osuan" ctrl F and you'll find the typo

 

I'm home tomorrow, had a change of plans, so I have two days free coming up and can write. I kinda really like your article as a seguay into my own Hendriks/Osuna piece, baubau.

 

I'll PM admin about wok, and wok too lol

 

No GD. You're wrong. Its always been Osuan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

...god dammit

 

and thanks! I figured it may work well. I had you in mind and why I expanded a little more on the basic stats. I was surprised to see Liam's SwStr% be at 10%. Thought he'd at least be around 13% or so. Guess I remember more swinging strikes of his than not.

 

E: Also I am going to send this off to IWok to review as well.

[GD]

10% is still a solid rate. The stupidly low rate at which he's used might have made your memory a bit woozy and maybe there's a certain robot reading this who can try and mention that to Gibby in passing?

[NorthOf49]

10% is still a solid rate. The stupidly low rate at which he's used might have made your memory a bit woozy and maybe there's a certain robot reading this who can try and mention that to Gibby in passing?

The robot already told us that they know Hendriks is good and that Gibby is dumn.

 

Baubau, how did you pick the relievers being used in the analysis? Is it just the best other relievers + Jays relievers? I think you could get the point across better using a scatterplot. Maybe overlay one of xFIP/SIERA with SwStr%. I would just pick one of xFIP and SIERA and roll with that, since they do the same thing. Also, 3D charts are hard to read. I like the charts that compare teams, though.

 

Hendriks' swinging strike rate is fine. He has such good command and may be a neutral batted ball guy out of the pen.

[NorthOf49]

Have you guys been following the DRA stat discussion? Tango, MGL and friends have been poking holes in it, and the BP people (Judge, Pavlidis, Turkenkopf) haven't responded that well. The stat has flaws that aren't well-addressed and BP is making changes but not being that transparent. It's just interesting to see how high-level statistics get made, and how all of the internet sabermetrics community is connected and thinks about the same issues.

 

Here's the thread on Tango's blog: http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/dra-and-occams-razor

Then there are recent updates here: http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/dra-component-run-values

[baubau]

Baubau, how did you pick the relievers being used in the analysis? Is it just the best other relievers + Jays relievers? I think you could get the point across better using a scatterplot. Maybe overlay one of xFIP/SIERA with SwStr%. I would just pick one of xFIP and SIERA and roll with that, since they do the same thing. Also, 3D charts are hard to read. I like the charts that compare teams, though.

 

Random. Really picking the top named revilers. Your idea is a HULLVA lot better. Will do that.

 

Hendriks' swinging strike rate is fine. He has such good command and may be a neutral batted ball guy out of the pen.

 

Shuh guys. No its not mkay! He's closer to Sanchezian level then he is Chapmans. Trade Hendriks for PTBNL? Get on that article GD.

 

 

EDIT!

 

Alright peeps, I did a little update on the entire article. IWok mentioned its a little unfair to lump Lowe on the team's result which is true as he was newly acquired. So I cut down on the lot of fluff and posted it up top again on my original post. No49, I tried to match SwStr% vs xFIP but had a hard time as excel kept on crashing and had a hard time overlaying the data as ststr% is in percentages where xFip were whole numbers. I just had a thin line at the bottom for swstr% and then the xfip plot.

[NorthOf49]

Random. Really picking the top named revilers. Your idea is a HULLVA lot better. Will do that.

 

 

 

Shuh guys. No its not mkay! He's closer to Sanchezian level then he is Chapmans. Trade Hendriks for PTBNL? Get on that article GD.

 

 

EDIT!

 

Alright peeps, I did a little update on the entire article. IWok mentioned its a little unfair to lump Lowe on the team's result which is true as he was newly acquired. So I cut down on the lot of fluff and posted it up top again on my original post. No49, I tried to match SwStr% vs xFIP but had a hard time as excel kept on crashing and had a hard time overlaying the data as ststr% is in percentages where xFip were whole numbers. I just had a thin line at the bottom for swstr% and then the xfip plot.

In Excel you can just highlight both columns and then do "insert scatter." Try again! You can make all the numbers decimals by changing all of the number formats to General (instead of Percentage). I like the idea of cutting down on fluffy words and emphasizing the charts, since bullpens are fickle and there's not that much to say on top of the numbers.

[GD]

Writing Osuna/Hendriks as we speak

[NorthOf49]

A Morosi tweet? Yuck lol. He picked the Marlins and Padres to win their divisions.

 

Kind of a click-bait headline too. There's nothing wrong with Osuna.

[baubau]

In Excel you can just highlight both columns and then do "insert scatter." Try again! You can make all the numbers decimals by changing all of the number formats to General (instead of Percentage).

 

You really don't have to do that. Excel automatically converts it. Even if I do convert it to "general" it still comes up as xFIP for example 2.45 and SwStr% 0.134. Maybe I was unclear, so I'll put up a chart that came out:

 

http://i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac23/jessieg235813/testy_zpsftquo5wq.png

 

You can barely see the SwStr% and hard to compare. Even if you two different chart, one for ststr% and the other for xfip, the names don't match as some guys have a mix match of xFIP and SwStr%. This was the best chart that shows it, I did do a scatter and wasn't much clearer.

I can put it up and note it if you'd like, but may be hard for people to interpret.

 

Disclaimer: I am not a smart man 100% of the time, so if I completely misunderstood what you were trying to say, my bad homie.

 

Writing Osuna/Hendriks as we speak

 

Sweet. I am just waiting for iWok to finish my errors before I post anything lol. He says he should be good by today or tomorrow.

[GD]

A Morosi tweet? Yuck lol. He picked the Marlins and Padres to win their divisions.

 

Kind of a click-bait headline too. There's nothing wrong with Osuna.

 

Morosi tweet, click-bait headline, all very good tools for fluff pieces aiming to generate content and hits, no? It's not like this is some fresh piece of research, lol

[NorthOf49]

You can barely see the SwStr% and hard to compare. Even if you two different chart, one for ststr% and the other for xfip, the names don't match as some guys have a mix match of xFIP and SwStr%. This was the best chart that shows it, I did do a scatter and wasn't much clearer.

I can put it up and note it if you'd like, but may be hard for people to interpret.

 

Disclaimer: I am not a smart man 100% of the time, so if I completely misunderstood what you were trying to say, my bad homie.

I meant that you should just have a scatter plot of every reliever in baseball with 30 innings, by xFIP- and SwStr. You don't need the pitcher names to be on an axis. Include labels for Blue Jays.

 

 

Morosi tweet, click-bait headline, all very good tools for fluff pieces aiming to generate content and hits, no? It's not like this is some fresh piece of research, lol

Okay. Maybe have a longer title with a phrase that sort of answers the question?

[NorthOf49]

Is anyone going to publish something today?

[baubau]

Sorry for the delay peeps. Work, work and more work. I promise to have the bpen article posted tomorrow. Maybe even tonight.

[GD]

Is anyone going to publish something today?

 

help me with the formula ffs

[John_Havok]

Hey, how do we take graphs from brooks baseball and paste them in the articles. Is it just the same as adding a picture?

 

Digging into Estrada's HR rate also revealed he has the second lowest babip allowed among all qualified SP, and it's steadily gone down each year since 2012. I'm now trying to work on some sort of explanation in as well.