Colabello Countdown

[L54]

Going forward? Practically league average.

 

Yup going forward. Practically or not, it's still projected to be above average. It's not accurate to discredit it just because it isn't very much above average.

[BlueJaysFanL]

Yup going forward. Practically or not, it's still projected to be above average. It's not accurate to discredit it just because it isn't very much above average.

 

I've been seeing you guys post his 'underlying' numbers since the beginning of the season and how he is supposed to regress, well, it hasn't happened yet. I also don't think it will. I think you guys are looking into his numbers way too much.

[BlueBirdBro]

Putting the ball in play between defenders either pull or opposite field is a skill. If he has a high BABIP in the past then he's just really good at putting the ball in exactly the right spot. I wouldn't brush it off entirely as luck...The only alternative is Smoak, who I do prefer but that's for defensive reasons in a stupid good lineup.

[AdamGreenwood]

There isn't a single Blue Jay fan that actively roots for Colabello to strikeout when he's up to bat. What many posters around here want is for others to accept that what he's done so far isn't indicative of his true talent level. Just because he's hit .330/.372/.521 on a .400 BABIP doesn't mean we should expect him to continue hitting like that.

 

With a FO that has a history of making poor roster decisions and ignoring things like roster flexibility, it's easy to see why some fans might welcome some regression from Colabello.

 

 

I don't think that's true. I am a Blue Jay fan, but I still hope for Smoak to strike out every time he's up to bat, so that the Jays will get rid of him and let Colabello get more playing time. I'm still baffled as to why we're lobbying to put a career .686 OPS 1st baseman into the lineup.

 

You people are just basing things on fWAR without understanding it. The fact that a 1B is willing/able to play outfield (albeit badly) should make them more valuable than a slow sack of s*** who can only play 1B or DH.

But Fangraphs penalizes players willing to fill in at positions they're not great at, instead of rewarding them. How about we give Smoak the same number of games in the outfield and see how good his WAR is.

 

Colabello is a much better overall player than Smoak and hopefully he gets a lot more playing time down the stretch.

[Governator]

109 wRC+ by Steamer is not practically league average

 

It's a bit above and if he plays in more games than what Steamer is projecting won't that number continue to fall?

[Sammy225]

Putting the ball in play between defenders either pull or opposite field is a skill. If he has a high BABIP in the past then he's just really good at putting the ball in exactly the right spot. I wouldn't brush it off entirely as luck...The only alternative is Smoak, who I do prefer but that's for defensive reasons in a stupid good lineup.

 

Are you saying he is aiming his hits past defenders.... Please tell me thats what you are saying.

[GD]

It's a bit above and if he plays in more games than what Steamer is projecting won't that number continue to fall?

 

wRC+ is a rate stat and the projections aim to capture true talent. Steamer believes that Colabello is 9% better than league average as a hitter, which is not insignificant.

[MunenoriKawasakiMVP]

Babip isn't entirely luck guys. Then if its the case Ted Williams had a lottery esque luck during his career

[L54]

I don't think that's true. I am a Blue Jay fan, but I still hope for Smoak to strike out every time he's up to bat, so that the Jays will get rid of him and let Colabello get more playing time. I'm still baffled as to why we're lobbying to put a career .686 OPS 1st baseman into the lineup.

 

You people are just basing things on fWAR without understanding it. The fact that a 1B is willing/able to play outfield (albeit badly) should make them more valuable than a slow sack of s*** who can only play 1B or DH.

But Fangraphs penalizes players willing to fill in at positions they're not great at, instead of rewarding them. How about we give Smoak the same number of games in the outfield and see how good his WAR is.

 

Colabello is a much better overall player than Smoak and hopefully he gets a lot more playing time down the stretch.

 

If Smoak is up to bat in a tie game with one out, bottom nine and runner on third in the WC game I don't see how you can be hoping for Smoak to strikeout.

 

I find it quite funny that you're telling me that I don't understand fWAR, then you immediately try and tell me that Fangraphs should view being able to play more than one position (piss poorly, even!) as a positive.

 

Willingness to keep your job and do what your manager tells you to do as a journeyman isn't accounted by Fangraphs. I too find this is a major flaw in the WAR calculation.

[GD]

Babip isn't entirely luck guys. Then if its the case Ted Williams had a lottery esque luck during his career

 

Ted Williams: 2292 PA, .328 BABIP

Chris Colabello 2015: 288 PA, .406 BABIP

 

WAT

[GD]

my whole life is a lie

[CrackerJack]

who really cares (right now) that Cola's BAPIP will drop next year and in the future?

we're trying to win right now and Cola's swinging a magic wand with his hits touching green out there (luck or not.)

 

on the other hand, Smoak's slash line the last 3 months is ...

 

June: .213/.275/.468

July: .191/.283/.468

Aug: .179/.190/.375

 

with production like that (if Travis comes back) might as well slap a trapper on Ryan Goins and see if he can pick 'em at 1b.

 

(and I like Smoak ... as a part time player ... and Gibby's been using him properly)

[GD]

who really cares (right now) that Cola's BAPIP will drop next year and in the future?

we're trying to win right now and Cola's swinging a magic wand with his hits touching green out there (luck or not.)

 

on the other hand, Smoak's slash line the last 3 months is ...

 

June: .213/.275/.468

July: .191/.283/.468

Aug: .179/.190/.375

 

with production like that (if Travis comes back) might as well slap a trapper on Ryan Goins and see if he can pick 'em at 1b.

 

(and I like Smoak ... as a part time player ... and Gibby's been using him properly)

 

You can't just expect luck to continue though. If his production fell off during a playoff run it'd be disastrous.

[CrackerJack]

You can't just expect luck to continue though. If his production fell off during a playoff run it'd be disastrous.

 

it would be "disastrous" for this lineup if part time playing Cola's BAPIP dropped during a playoff run? haha

 

meanwhile Ryan Goins is getting better results than Justin Smoak currently on this playoff run.

[Yorkshire Blue Jay]

You can't just expect luck to continue though. If his production fell off during a playoff run it'd be disastrous.

 

I am happy with Gibby's use of both Smoak and Colabello at this stage.

 

IMO Smoak is more likely to hit a homer, Colabello is better at the plate in a crucial at bat (esp. with the bases loaded) and Smoak has better hands at 1B but probably slightly less range than Colabello.

 

If it ain't broken then don't fix it.

[CrackerJack]

I don't think you understand BABIP at all.

 

ok bro haha.

 

Cola obviously isn't going to maintain a .406 BAPIP.

 

But i'll ride results in the here and now when the alternative is a bat with Justin Smoak's track record.

 

(And I like Smoak and think the two of 'em should be sharing the job this year.)

[Yorkshire Blue Jay]

Actually Colabello is way more likely to hit a homer.

 

Career HR/FB:

 

Smoak: 12.7 %

Colabello: 20.3 %

 

They've both hit 12 this year but Smoak has 50+ fewer plate appearances.

 

I aren't talking flyballs only.

[HERPDERP]

Ship off Smoak and Colabello in the offseason.

 

Convince Rogers to give an addition $200 million in payroll

 

Trade for Votto's salary

 

/donedeal

[BTS]

I don't think that's true. I am a Blue Jay fan, but I still hope for Smoak to strike out every time he's up to bat, so that the Jays will get rid of him and let Colabello get more playing time. I'm still baffled as to why we're lobbying to put a career .686 OPS 1st baseman into the lineup.

 

You people are just basing things on fWAR without understanding it. The fact that a 1B is willing/able to play outfield (albeit badly) should make them more valuable than a slow sack of s*** who can only play 1B or DH.

But Fangraphs penalizes players willing to fill in at positions they're not great at, instead of rewarding them. How about we give Smoak the same number of games in the outfield and see how good his WAR is.

 

Colabello is a much better overall player than Smoak and hopefully he gets a lot more playing time down the stretch.

 

I think most people are down on Colabello because he projects to hit at a slightly above average level while bleeding runs on the bases and wherever he plays on the field. A 105 wRC+ bat or whatever he is with no other skills isn't useful.

[baubau]

Ship off Smoak and Colabello in the offseason.

 

Convince Rogers to give an addition $200 million in payroll

 

Trade for Votto's salary

 

/donedeal

 

... OR just sign Chris Davis for cheaper and watch Baltimore get salty. MUCH more enjoyable.

[Sammy225]

... OR just sign Chris Davis for cheaper and watch Baltimore get salty. MUCH more enjoyable.

 

Buy low on Wieters stick him at first as long as he is not given a Q.O.... Like In Moneyball:

 

-"First base is not that hard tell em."

 

-"Its incredibly hard."

[BTS]

Smoak on the other hand, bleeds even more runs on the bases, projects as 99 wRC+ bat, and maybe-possibly is an extremely mild upgrade defensively over Colo at 1B, even-though he looks like a human statue... but somehow he's useful over Cola?

 

No, they both suck.

[Frenchsoup]

... OR just sign Chris Davis for cheaper and watch Baltimore get salty. MUCH more enjoyable.

 

i wouldn't touch Davis

[Governator]

Justin Smoak is 3rd in MLB @ 1B with a UZR of 7.2/150 this season (450 innings or more - sss I know but still relevant) with 5 of 6 seasons a +UZR rating. He's more than a mild upgrade over Cola.

[KingKat]

No, they both suck.

 

But they're both also cheap so it's not that big a deal. It's o.k. to have guys like this in your lineup when you have superstars at other positions.

[Dr. Dinger]

If you guys think Colabello is bad defensively (which he is), take a look at Matt Stairs circa 1999... 38 HR, .383 wOBA, 0.8 WAR.

[KingKat]

If you guys think Colabello is bad defensively (which he is), take a look at Matt Stairs circa 1999... 38 HR, .383 wOBA, 0.8 WAR.

 

Wasn't the whole defensive calculation on 1B really off back then?

[Governator]

You can't use half a season of UZR for anything, not even in your morning coffee.

 

Again he's a proven defender, there is zero indication that Cola can play catch at a Midget level.

[Dr. Dinger]

Wasn't the whole defensive calculation on 1B really off back then?

 

He was an OF back then. The point is good lord that's terrible.

[KingKat]

He was an OF back then. The point is good lord that's terrible.

 

Mind boggling really.