Drew Hutchison

[glory]

Boxy shut this bitch down. Send him down my ass. You guys are unbelievable, Sanchez gets lucky for 5 starts in a row and he's good but Hutch gets unlucky for most of his road starts and he's terrible. No such thing as context or looking beyond the obvious for some of you. Sanchez walks 7 and gives up 1 run ACE start. Hutch walks no one and gives up 5 runs while striking 7 BUM!

 

What if you think Sanchez isn't very good (yet) AND Hutchison has been bad on the road? Is that better?

 

Home: 2.39 FIP, 1.94 BB/9, 8.82 K/9, 0.35 HR/9, .284 BABIP

Road: 5.32 FIP, 3.64 BB/9, 7.50 K/9, 1.71 HR/9, .416 BABIP (this is obviously unsustainable)

 

I think it's fair to say he's been bad on the road. Really bad. Again, maybe that changes as the year goes on, but it's the all star break and he's still the same dude who can't get anyone out on the road.

[Boxcar]

He's just the team's best pitcher. nbd

 

You've opened up a big can of worms, bud. No turning back now.

[TwistedLogic]

He's just the team's best pitcher. nbd

 

You mean he's the team's second best pitcher.

[Boxcar]

What if you think Sanchez isn't very good (yet) AND Hutchison has been bad on the road? Is that better?

 

Home: 2.39 FIP, 1.94 BB/9, 8.82 K/9, 0.35 HR/9, .284 BABIP

Road: 5.32 FIP, 3.64 BB/9, 7.50 K/9, 1.71 HR/9, .416 BABIP (this is obviously unsustainable)

 

I think it's fair to say he's been bad on the road. Really bad. Again, maybe that changes as the year goes on, but it's the all star break and he's still the same dude who can't get anyone out on the road.

 

I don't think anyone has argued that he hasn't been bad, but I don't think one should reasonably expect him to continue being that way.

[Orgfiller]

He's giving up harder hit balls more frequently which inflates his babip

 

Funny that you would say that:

 

http://i.imgur.com/fm7iWds.png

 

Care to elaborate?

[TwistedLogic]

What if you think Sanchez isn't very good (yet) AND Hutchison has been bad on the road? Is that better?

 

Home: 2.39 FIP, 1.94 BB/9, 8.82 K/9, 0.35 HR/9, .284 BABIP

Road: 5.32 FIP, 3.64 BB/9, 7.50 K/9, 1.71 HR/9, .416 BABIP (this is obviously unsustainable)

 

I think it's fair to say he's been bad on the road. Really bad. Again, maybe that changes as the year goes on, but it's the all star break and he's still the same dude who can't get anyone out on the road.

 

What if you think Hutchison has been brilliant at home? Is that better?

 

Home: 2.39 FIP, 1.94 BB/9, 8.82 K/9, 0.35 HR/9, .284 BABIP

Road: 5.32 FIP, 3.64 BB/9, 7.50 K/9, 1.71 HR/9, .416 BABIP (this is obviously unsustainable)

 

I think it's fair to say he's been excellent at home. Really excellent. As Aaron Sanchez (a lesser pitcher) would put it, he's been "on fleek" at home. Again, maybe that changes as the year goes on, but it's the all star break and he's still the same dude who is obliterating his opposition at home.

[Angrioter]

Funny that you would say that:

 

http://i.imgur.com/fm7iWds.png

 

Care to elaborate?

 

http://i869.photobucket.com/albums/ab260/Thelorddam/Fatality.gif

[Maahfaace]

Funny that you would say that:

 

http://i.imgur.com/fm7iWds.png

 

Care to elaborate?

 

Look at his LD%. those are babip inflators.

[TwistedLogic]

He's better than Buehrle, sorry.

 

He's not better than Buehrle. Well he is, but he hasn't been so far in 2015.

[DuckDuckGose]

I love that he fought through the rough start. Makes this whole thread 10x better.

[dineke]

It time AA and useless Gibbons got of their asses and sent Hutch down to learn how to pitch.He is no different than Norris.

 

Norris doesn't inspire the Jays' offense like Hutch. Underrated skill.

[Boxcar]

Look at his LD%. those are babip inflators.

 

Good point

 

http://i.imgur.com/AbTmbJS.png

 

One sec, my ******** meter is going off for some reason.

[Maahfaace]

Good point

 

http://i.imgur.com/AbTmbJS.png

 

One sec, my ******** meter is going off for some reason.

 

Really ********? U think line drives don't affect babip?

[Boxcar]

Really ********? U think line drives don't affect babip?

 

I don't really know what to say to this. Did the graphic not load on your screen or something?

[TwistedLogic]

Yes, Hutch has been. Better xFIP, TIPS, SIERA, etc.

 

I don't really care that Hutch has better peripherals than Buehrle. I shouldn't have to tell you that Buehrle is an outlier. Buehrle always outperforms his xFIP and SIERA, he's done it throughout his entire career, and as always, he's doing it again. The difference between their FIP-based WAR is negligible enough to where I can put stock in Buehrle's far better RA9-WAR and justifiably claim that he's been the better, more valuable arm in 2015.

[Maahfaace]

So Price and Kershaw suck? #hardcontact

 

Where did I say hutch sux....I'm not advocating send him down in any way. Just that luck isn't the only reason he hasn't been consistently pitching well. Some of you guys act as if every pitch that leaves his hand is identical and in a vacuum. Some days you just don't have it and pitches are left up in the zone/ less movement. It's not all luck as some of you stats only guys keep suggesting

[Maahfaace]

I don't really know what to say to this. Did the graphic not load on your screen or something?

 

Coming from a stats guru like yourself Im kind of shocked you don't understand then correlation of babip to LD%

[TwistedLogic]

lol, Maahfaace makes a claim that Hutch is giving up hard contact and that is subsequently inflating his BABIP number. Boxy calls ********, while simultaneously proving Maahfaace's point with a screenshot that clearly shows Hutch has given up the 4th highest LD% in the majors.

[GD]

And you put way to much emphasis on luck

 

Look at his LD%. those are babip inflators.

 

Really ********? U think line drives don't affect babip?

 

you're simply not very good at this.

[IronLadle]

Yes, Hutch has been. Better xFIP, TIPS, SIERA, etc.

 

you can't be serious?

[Boxcar]

Coming from a stats guru like yourself Im kind of shocked you don't understand then correlation of babip to LD%

 

Yeah because there IS NO CORRELATION.

 

Here's a second one so we can go past this year. From 2002-2015 min 600 ip:

 

http://i.imgur.com/IXqmzcz.png

 

Please tell me, where is this correlation?

[Boxcar]

lol, Maahfaace makes a claim that Hutch is giving up hard contact and that is subsequently inflating his BABIP number. Boxy calls ********, while simultaneously proving Maahfaace's point with a screenshot that clearly shows Hutch has given up the 4th highest LD% in the majors.

 

ok.

[Orgfiller]

lol, Maahfaace makes a claim that Hutch is giving up hard contact and that is subsequently inflating his BABIP number. Boxy calls ********, while simultaneously proving Maahfaace's point with a screenshot that clearly shows Hutch has given up the 4th highest LD% in the majors.

Actually, the screenshot proves that of the 17 pitchers who have given up the most line drives, their average BABIP is .304.

[TwistedLogic]

The point is that LD% isn't talent-based because it doesn't correlate year-to-year and is subjective. Hutch cannot be expected to maintain this high BABIP because his LD% is artificially inflated by factors outside of his control.

 

This ^

[RealAccountant]

I am convinced that most hutch defenders here don't actually watch Jays games. Anyone watching him pitch would not say he has been good this year ,

[Maahfaace]

Yeah because there IS NO CORRELATION.

 

Here's a second one so we can go past this year. From 2002-2015 min 600 ip:

 

http://i.imgur.com/IXqmzcz.png

 

Please tell me, where is this correlation?

 

League average for LD is over .600

GB in the .240 range

FB in the .215 range, with obviously more XBH

 

 

Does that help?

[King]

I am convinced that most hutch defenders here don't actually watch Jays games. Anyone watching him pitch would not say he has been good this year ,

 

S'up Robert?

[TwistedLogic]

Actually, the screenshot proves that of the 17 pitchers who have given up the most line drives, their average BABIP is .304.

 

And this screenshot proves that the 17 pitchers who've given up the least line drives have an average BABIP of .277

 

http://i.gyazo.com/43765e33bef3eace9f7f02928b1a049b.png

 

This whole discussion is stupid, and I completely disagree with Maafaace that there's any reason to put stock in the hard contact Hutch has been giving up (it actually proves that he's been unlucky, not that he has any control over it), I just thought the back-and-forth between him and Boxy made no sense.

[GD]

League average for LD is over .600

GB in the .240 range

FB in the .215 range, with obviously more XBH

 

 

Does that help?

 

You keep posting this. You have no idea what it means or why it doesn't help.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tool-basically-every-pitching-stat-correlation/

 

LD% year 0 to BABIP% year 0, minimum 180 IP (rough stabilization rate) has an r^2 of .0738 which is statistically insignificant. This means that there is no yearly correlation to LD% and BABIP%.

 

LD% year 0 to LD% year 1, same filters has an r^2 of .0379, which is statistically insignificant. This means that there is no year-to-year correlation for LD%.

 

BABIP% year 0 to year 1, same filter, has an r^2 of .0422, which is statistically insignificant. This means that there is no year-to-year correlation for BABIP.

 

Data. Statistically insignificant. No correlation. Got it?

 

Hutch's LD% has nothing to do with his BABIP. Hutch's BABIP has nothing to do with Hutch's LD%. Hutch's LD% has nothing to do with Hutch. Hutch's BABIP has nothing to do with Hutch. Not nothing, actually. That'd be inaccurate. Just mostly nothing, because you're looking at a tiny sample size that's irrelevant for the statistics you're looking at/misusing.

You are looking at random variance within a small sample size.

[Boxcar]

League average for LD is over .600

GB in the .240 range

FB in the .215 range, with obviously more XBS

 

 

Does that help?

 

You said that Hutchison's crazy high BABIP was due to his penchant for giving up lots of line drives. I never contested that he gives up line drives. Of course line drives have a higher chance of becoming hits but it's not that simple. I sorted by highest LD% and the BABIP numbers do not go up as LD% goes up. Thus, your silly argument for why Hutch has a .350 BABIP is not valid.