Drew Hutchison

[Slot Machine]

LOL. This is a bad thread. Why'll we're at it Encarnacion's numbers are way down this year, better send him to AAA. Hahah.

[Boxcar]

I just thought the back-and-forth between him and Boxy made no sense.

 

It didn't and I should have refrained.

[Maahfaace]

You said that Hutchison's crazy high BABIP was due to his penchant for giving up lots of line drives. I never contested that he gives up line drives. Of course line drives have a higher chance of becoming hits but it's not that simple. I sorted by highest LD% and the BABIP numbers do not go up as LD% goes up. Thus, your silly argument for why Hutch has a .350 BABIP is not valid.

 

Once again you imply that I said it is the only reason, ITS NOT, the point I was making was that hutch's up and down year is not solely based on luck, as a good number of you believe. Other factors are in play and one of them is the fact that he hasn't consistently located his fastball down in the zone, leading to a higher LD%. and a higher babip than last year. Disagree all you want, but I have watched nearly every start from hutch this year and he has not been consistent start to start, heck even some innings he comes out looking like a different pitcher. To argue against that is what really silly

[GD]

Once again you imply that I said it is the only reason, ITS NOT, the point I was making was that hutch's up and down year is not solely based on luck, as a good number of you believe. Other factors are in play and one of them is the fact that he hasn't consistently located his fastball down in the zone, leading to a higher LD%. and a higher babip than last year. Disagree all you want, but I have watched nearly every start from hutch this year and he has not been consistent start to start, heck even some innings he comes out looking like a different pitcher. To argue against that is silly

 

quoted for irony

[Boxcar]

Yeah I'm not going to continue.

[Maahfaace]

quoted for irony

 

english is my third language, sorry if it doesnt meet your standards

[GD]

english is my third language, sorry if it doesnt meet your standards

 

Wasn't criticizing your English

[Boxcar]

english is my third language, sorry if it doesnt meet your standards

 

Couldn't tell, it's very good.

[TwistedLogic]

Once again you imply that I said it is the only reason, ITS NOT, the point I was making was that hutch's up and down year is not solely based on luck, as a good number of you believe. Other factors are in play and one of them is the fact that he hasn't consistently located his fastball down in the zone, leading to a higher LD%. and a higher babip than last year. Disagree all you want, but I have watched nearly every start from hutch this year and he has not been consistent start to start, heck even some innings he comes out looking like a different pitcher. To argue against that is what really silly

 

Watching every start is what has created the biases that lead to your incorrect conclusion. You're trying to prove that Hutchison's up and down year is not solely based on luck (and maybe it isn't), but the numbers you're using are doing the exact opposite of what you want them to. The fact that Hutchison has given the fourth highest LD% among pitchers does prove that he has been extremely unlucky, because he has no control over his LD%. In fact, in 2013, he had the exact same 25.4 LD%, and his BABIP was at .291, 60 points lower than what it is right now.

 

http://i.gyazo.com/27fc45b5cc52644448122102463724d0.png http://i.gyazo.com/0086b49251f0baf2889042bbecc4faba.png

 

If your claim that Hutch doesn't have consistent control over his pitches was accurate, he wouldn't be striking out guys three times as often as he's walking them. The whole point of ERA and ERA estimators is to provide you with a consistent number; an average. All of his peripherals tell us that throughout all the inconsistency, he is on average, a good pitcher. One of the best the Blue Jays have right now. There's nothing they can do to work on him in-season, and demoting him would be the mind-numbingly stupidest move they could make.

[thatoneguy]

Im guessing criticizing people accounts for a good number of your 23000 posts....

 

Well yeah because there is just so much stupid to go around on this board. I've only been here since last summer and it's just blatantly obvious.

[BTS]

Strongly disagree that Hutchison has been better than Papa Buehrle.

[intentional wok]

he hasn't consistently located his fastball down in the zone, leading to a higher LD%

 

Can you even prove this, though? That his fastball command is leading to the higher LD%? One could just as easily argue it leads to more BBs (if indeed he is walking more guys), or that it simply results in more pitches per plate appearance.

[Maahfaace]

Watching every start is what has created the biases that lead to your incorrect conclusion. You're trying to prove that Hutchison's up and down year is not solely based on luck (and maybe it isn't), but the numbers you're using are doing the exact opposite of what you want them to. The fact that Hutchison has given the fourth highest LD% among pitchers does prove that he has been extremely unlucky, because he has no control over his LD%. In fact, in 2013, he had the exact same 25.4 LD%, and his BABIP was at .291, 60 points lower than what it is right now.

 

http://i.gyazo.com/aef41ca835dc6ab7f92f1965104cdc82.png

 

http://i.gyazo.com/0086b49251f0baf2889042bbecc4faba.png

 

If your claim that Hutch doesn't have consistent control over his pitches was accurate, he wouldn't be striking out guys three times as often as he's walking them. The whole point of ERA and ERA estimators is to provide you with a consistent number; an average. All of his peripherals tell us that throughout all the inconsistency, he is on average, a good pitcher. One of the best the Blue Jays have right now. There's nothing they can do to work on him in-season, and demoting him would be the mind-numbingly stupidest move they could make.

 

I agree demoting him would be stupid and really isnt even an option, however, you can most certainly strike guys out at a high rate while still lacking consistency with locating your pitches, this is where luck does come into play. If you miss down and away, chances are it will not be a hard hit ball, you miss up in the zone, chances increase that it will be hit harder. From what I have noticed his mistakes have been up in the zone more. The same issue I noticed in Matt Boyd's start, his fastball was flat and up in the zone alot, it doesnt mean every single time its going to be hit hard, but the chances of it go up.

[Maahfaace]

Can you even prove this, though? That his fastball command is leading to the higher LD%? One could just as easily argue it leads to more BBs (if indeed he is walking more guys), or that it simply results in more pitches per plate appearance.

 

naw, i cant prove it, nor would i waste my time trying to research it. Im kind of a casual poster who sees this common theme that why a pitcher doesnt succeed is all luck based.....which is not true at all. It defintely has an impact, but luck does not solely explain why hutch is inconsistent.

[TwistedLogic]

Can you even prove this, though? That his fastball command is leading to the higher LD%? One could just as easily argue it leads to more BBs (if indeed he is walking more guys), or that it simply results in more pitches per plate appearance.

 

No he can't. Poor fastball command would result in poor command of the strike zone, and Hutch has had very good control this year (top 50):

 

http://i.gyazo.com/5c7c6e59e5b7904416afc105edd8f8ba.png

[GD]

naw, i cant prove it, nor would i waste my time trying to research it. Im kind of a casual poster who sees this common theme that why a pitcher doesnt succeed is all luck based.....which is not true at all. It defintely has an impact, but luck does not solely explain why hutch is inconsistent.

 

It's not luck. It's randomness.

[IronLadle]

Strongly disagree that Hutchison has been better than Papa Buehrle.

 

I can't even believe someone suggested it

[Maahfaace]

It's not luck. It's randomness.

 

Im seeing a theme with your posts.......you're kind of a grammar/spelling/irony/thesaurus troll

[GD]

Im seeing a theme with your posts.......you're kind of a grammar/spelling/irony/thesaurus troll

 

What? I'm not talking about your grammar at all.

 

Luck and randomness are two different things. You didn't even acknowledge my post that provided every bit of evidence that directly stated the opposite of your points.

 

I can promise you I take no issue with your English. I take issue with your points.

[intentional wok]

No he can't. Poor fastball command would result in poor command of the strike zone, and Hutch has had very good control this year (top 50):

 

http://i.gyazo.com/5c7c6e59e5b7904416afc105edd8f8ba.png

 

Do these stats necessarily prove strong or weak command, though? Surely a pitcher can earn a K even by labouring through his ABs. Are there numbers on pitches/PA? (Not that pitches/PA would prove anything either.)

 

EDIT: Although Hutch has certainly earned more than "a K" this year, so it does indeed show that he gets it done.

[IronLadle]

Do these stats necessarily prove strong or weak command, though? Surely a pitcher can earn a K even by labouring through his ABs. Are there numbers on pitches/PA? (Not that pitches/PA would prove anything either.)

 

considering Hutch struggles to pitch 6 innings, I'd say his command is off.

[Maahfaace]

You keep posting this. You have no idea what it means or why it doesn't help.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tool-basically-every-pitching-stat-correlation/

 

LD% year 0 to BABIP% year 0, minimum 180 IP (rough stabilization rate) has an r^2 of .0738 which is statistically insignificant. This means that there is no yearly correlation to LD% and BABIP%.

 

LD% year 0 to LD% year 1, same filters has an r^2 of .0379, which is statistically insignificant. This means that there is no year-to-year correlation for LD%.

 

BABIP% year 0 to year 1, same filter, has an r^2 of .0422, which is statistically insignificant. This means that there is no year-to-year correlation for BABIP.

 

Data. Statistically insignificant. No correlation. Got it?

 

Hutch's LD% has nothing to do with his BABIP. Hutch's BABIP has nothing to do with Hutch's LD%. Hutch's LD% has nothing to do with Hutch. Hutch's BABIP has nothing to do with Hutch. Not nothing, actually. That'd be inaccurate. Just mostly nothing, because you're looking at a tiny sample size that's irrelevant for the statistics you're looking at/misusing.

You are looking at random variance within a small sample size.

 

What? I'm not talking about your grammar at all.

 

Luck and randomness are two different things. You didn't even acknowledge my post that provided every bit of evidence that directly stated the opposite of your points.

 

I can promise you I take no issue with your English. I take issue with your points.

 

did you mean that one? I apologize for not responding, I will now, again my english is s***, correlation probably isnt the correct word. Help me out here then, if Hutch's LD% is 25% and league avg is .600 on it, and he lowers it to 20% by a mix of GB/FB/SO and thier respective league averages, would his babip not be lower? Im of the understanding that a lower LD% will more often than not result in a lower babip as post by twisted logic and his top 17 bottom 17 comparisons.

[TwistedLogic]

Do these stats necessarily prove strong or weak command, though? Surely a pitcher can earn a K even by labouring through his ABs. Are there numbers on pitches/PA? (Not that pitches/PA would prove anything either.)

 

http://i.gyazo.com/2e60327cef7369eefdd29cbe602854c9.png

http://i.gyazo.com/c7ead84aed70ff1d749bbcbe2279300e.png

[GD]

did you mean that one? I apologize for not responding, I will now, again my english is s***, correlation probably isnt the correct word. Help me out here then, if Hutch's LD% is 25% and league avg is .600 on it, and he lowers it to 20% by a mix of GB/FB/SO and thier respective league averages, would his babip not be lower? Im of the understanding that a lower LD% will more often than not result in a lower babip as post by twisted logic and his top 17 bottom 17 comparisons.

 

It might be, it might not be. BABIP, in this sample size, is random. That's what we're all getting at here. Is link a better word? A correlation is like a link, a relationship, a trend, a pattern.

[GD]

Do these stats necessarily prove strong or weak command, though? Surely a pitcher can earn a K even by labouring through his ABs. Are there numbers on pitches/PA? (Not that pitches/PA would prove anything either.)

 

EDIT: Although Hutch has certainly earned more than "a K" this year, so it does indeed show that he gets it done.

 

P/PA probably isn't a skill. I don't know, I haven't done any research into it, but that's what North told me when I was debating its inclusion in xBB%

[Maahfaace]

It might be, it might not be. BABIP, in this sample size, is random. That's what we're all getting at here. Is link a better word? A correlation is like a link, a relationship, a trend, a pattern.

 

ok so throwing the numbers aside, im assuming you watch all the jays game you can. From what you see from hutch this year, would you say he is consistently commanding his pitches?

[GD]

ok so throwing the numbers aside, im assuming you watch all the jays game you can. From what you see from hutch this year, would you say he is consistently commanding his pitches?

 

I don't think he's looked as good as last year. Still a good pitcher, though. Looks a little off but I certainly don't see reason to send him down.

 

Not saying specifically you, but I think people on the board overreact cause they don't follow enough other teams. Players go through slumps, this isn't immune to the Jays. It happens to everyone.

[Maahfaace]

I don't think he's looked as good as last year. Still a good pitcher, though. Looks a little off but I certainly don't see reason to send him down.

 

Not saying specifically you, but I think people on the board overreact cause they don't follow enough other teams. Players go through slumps, this isn't immune to the Jays. It happens to everyone.

 

so you would argue command isnt his issue, it seems like you didnt directly answer my question

[TwistedLogic]

ok so throwing the numbers aside, im assuming you watch all the jays game you can. From what you see from hutch this year, would you say he is consistently commanding his pitches?

 

Nobody said anything about how consistent he's been. We know that he has been inconsistent. The home/road splits are all you need to look at for that. The whole argument was whether or not Hutchison deserves to be sent down, and whether or not he's been anywhere nearly as terrible as his ERA dictates, and the answer to both is a resounding "NO".

[intentional wok]

P/PA probably isn't a skill. I don't know, I haven't done any research into it, but that's what North told me when I was debating its inclusion in xBB%

 

No it probably isn't, and it wouldn't prove strong or weak command either (since "command" probably doesn't necessarily equal fewer pitches). Though it might reflect on pitch selection? I'm going down the rabbit hole now. I'm just a little bit surprised to see the company Hutch is keeping on some of his stats given how shaky he's been this season.