Dickey Is Officially Below Replacment Level

[Olerud363]

Exaggerated.

It'll end up being a bad trade, but never recovering from it? Donaldson did that already.

 

Yes because the Donaldson trade is decided after half a season. Every time we do this the Donaldson trade looks slightly better for the As

 

Gravemen is now pretty much won a rotation spot, Lawrie is staying healhty, Baretto is hot.

 

But it is 100% certain that 30something Donaldson will out perform them

 

It's basically a 4-2 WAR right now if you average bbref WAR and Fangraphs. this is the type of trade (like dickey) with the As holding all the younger players.

 

The first time I did this I said --

 

Lawrie could hit .280 with 20 homers, Gravemen could be a staple in the rotation, Barretto get hot and regain top prospect status.

 

I was told

 

"YOU ARE DUMB, STOP TALKING IN HYPOTHETICALS -- LAWRIE, GRAVEMEN, BARRETO SUCKKKKK!!!!"

 

Now in 2 months the "hypothetical" is allready on track. The trade (so far) is still a win for the Jays, but things can change quick,.

[RealAccountant]

^Lol

 

Donaldson is a top 10 player in all of mlb. Even if Lawrie and company all reach their potential Jays win by a landslide

 

Do you know how hard it is to grab an elite players. Even 3 good players don't equal an elite player. Donaldson is Elite

[Olerud363]

^Lol

 

Donaldson is a top 10 player in all of mlb. Even if Lawrie and company all reach their potential Jays win by a landslide

 

Do you know how hard it is to grab an elite players. Even 3 good players don't equal an elite player. Donaldson is Elite

 

Donaldson is almost 30. You are assuming his age 30-32 will be as good as 27-29.

[HERPDERP]

I'm probably an idiot but I'm a bit worried about Donaldson going forward. He's had an OK June with a rising K rate. Obviously still an above average player for his position. And if you watch his at bats he's really swinging at a lot more junk pitches and missing them.

 

Again, I'm probably an idiot and I expect too much for our AL MVP.

[BigCecil]

Yes because the Donaldson trade is decided after half a season. Every time we do this the Donaldson trade looks slightly better for the As

 

Gravemen is now pretty much won a rotation spot, Lawrie is staying healhty, Baretto is hot.

 

But it is 100% certain that 30something Donaldson will out perform them

 

It's basically a 4-2 WAR right now if you average bbref WAR and Fangraphs. this is the type of trade (like dickey) with the As holding all the younger players.

 

The first time I did this I said --

 

Lawrie could hit .280 with 20 homers, Gravemen could be a staple in the rotation, Barretto get hot and regain top prospect status.

 

I was told

 

"YOU ARE DUMB, STOP TALKING IN HYPOTHETICALS -- LAWRIE, GRAVEMEN, BARRETO SUCKKKKK!!!!"

 

Now in 2 months the "hypothetical" is allready on track. The trade (so far) is still a win for the Jays, but things can change quick,.

 

I don't know why so many love to hammer you on this. Who doesn't love JD but your comment on his age is factual that might be a factor. Late bloomer like Edwin.

 

If I'm the As I'm looking longer term at this deal and feeling ok with it. We got an elite player but they got back potentially 2 regulars and 2 with potential to be. Nolin Im not sold on.

 

Id still make the deal all day long if Jays but As did better than they get credit for imo.

[BigCecil]

I'm probably an idiot but I'm a bit worried about Donaldson going forward. He's had an OK June with a rising K rate. Obviously still an above average player for his position. And if you watch his at bats he's really swinging at a lot more junk pitches and missing them.

 

Again, I'm probably an idiot and I expect too much for our AL MVP.

 

He has a lot of movement in his swing like Jose and he doesn't have as good of an eye. So he is going to be prone to some slumps when his timing is off. No big deal. The flip side of that is when he gets hot look out.

[Dick_Pole]

I don't know why so many love to hammer you on this. Who doesn't love JD but your comment on his age is factual that might be a factor. Late bloomer like Edwin.

 

If I'm the As I'm looking longer term at this deal and feeling ok with it. We got an elite player but they got back potentially 2 regulars and 2 with potential to be. Nolin Im not sold on.

 

Id still make the deal all day long if Jays but As did better than they get credit for imo.

 

I would consider Lawrie to be "older" in that he has less years of control and more wear and tear on his body. Donaldson at some point may decline. But we are talking about one MLB salary and roster spot versus three MLB salaries and roster spots with a fourth one coming if the A's are lucky.

[RealAccountant]

Donaldson is almost 30. You are assuming his age 30-32 will be as good as 27-29.

 

Of course they will be its not like he is 35

 

30-33 is prime. Not to mention 4 years of control vs 2

[BigCecil]

I don't know why so many love to hammer you on this. Who doesn't love JD but your comment on his age is factual that might be a factor. Late bloomer like Edwin.

 

If I'm the As I'm looking longer term at this deal and feeling ok with it. We got an elite player but they got back potentially 2 regulars and 2 with potential to be. Nolin Im not sold on.

 

Id still make the deal all day long if Jays but As did better than they get credit for imo.

 

I would consider Lawrie to be "older" in that he has less years of control and more wear and tear on his body. Donaldson at some point may decline. But we are talking about one MLB salary and roster spot versus three MLB salaries and roster spots with a fourth one coming if the A's are lucky.

 

Graveman is AE in 18 and wont be FA until 21 and he is a fixture in their rotation now. CHEAP.

 

Lawrie can be FA in 2018. $2mm this season. JD will get a big Arb bump this year.

 

Nolin and Baretto will be cheap for a long time whether they turn into MLB players or not.

 

Anyway you slice it getting the WAR from JD we do in one roster spot makes it a winner.

[Dick_Pole]

 

Nolin and Baretto will be cheap for a long time whether they turn into MLB players or not.

 

 

I don't understand that comment. If they are cheap and not MLB players the A's get nothing out of it. The best case scenario for the A's is if Lawrie puts up a big season then they trade him. Because if he's good, they likely can't afford him. If he sucks or is constantly injured, they can afford him but won't want him. The team could have waited 2 years before coming to the decision point of having to trade Donaldson. Or gotten more out of the deal. If they saw something out of Graveman and if he turns out to be a good starter for them, more power to them. But using Graveman to justify the Donaldson trade is like AA's comments a while back about Bonafacio being the clincher for the Marlins trade, IIRC. Any number of trade scenarios could have occurred where Graveman could have been in an A's uniform without Donaldson going the other way.

[WryNGinger]

- R L Dickey

[Olerud363]

Of course they will be its not like he is 35

 

30-33 is prime. Not to mention 4 years of control vs 2

 

The latest research I saw on aging curves is the 26-28 is prime.... For example Hurl posted this a while back .(just got bumped in the Melky thread)

 

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Curve2.jpg

 

The reason I responded is that you made such a BS statement and I called you out on it. Much the same way you said that I posted HOF'ers when in reality more than half the list isn't in the hall. Talk ******** and someone will likely call you out. I've also mentioned in posts that I think occasionally JFaS should explain his "absolute" comments that he does as there are a lot of posters that don't understand why he thinks "1st rounder + Smoak > Melky". I understand it's based on value and projections but there are still a lot of people that could use educating on this subject.

[RealAccountant]

Does the above include pitchers because that would greatly skew the data

 

Where is the dataset

[labadee]

 

Doesn't really add to the convo, but pretty cool to see someone develop a knuckleball pitching machine

[Olerud363]

Does the above include pitchers because that would greatly skew the data

 

Where is the dataset

 

Quick google search indicates the same thing... Convential wisdom has always been age 27 is the peak... I am not aware of any data showing early 30s as the peak.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/31/2199146/hitter-aging-curves

[metafour]

Quick google search indicates the same thing... Convential wisdom has always been age 27 is the peak... I am not aware of any data showing early 30s as the peak.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/31/2199146/hitter-aging-curves

 

Whether or not 27 is the "peak" or not, there is zero reason to believe that he will all of a sudden fall apart at only 30-32 years of age. Guys like Adrian Beltre were still elite players well into their mid 30's, even Scott Rolen despite injuries was well above average in his 30's.

 

30-32 isn't 'old' at all. To use that as your argument is just looking for some sort of excuse.

[DuckDuckGose]

Yes because the Donaldson trade is decided after half a season. Every time we do this the Donaldson trade looks slightly better for the As

 

Gravemen is now pretty much won a rotation spot, Lawrie is staying healhty, Baretto is hot.

 

But it is 100% certain that 30something Donaldson will out perform them

 

It's basically a 4-2 WAR right now if you average bbref WAR and Fangraphs. this is the type of trade (like dickey) with the As holding all the younger players.

 

The first time I did this I said --

 

Lawrie could hit .280 with 20 homers, Gravemen could be a staple in the rotation, Barretto get hot and regain top prospect status.

 

I was told

 

"YOU ARE DUMB, STOP TALKING IN HYPOTHETICALS -- LAWRIE, GRAVEMEN, BARRETO SUCKKKKK!!!!"

 

Now in 2 months the "hypothetical" is allready on track. The trade (so far) is still a win for the Jays, but things can change quick,.

 

You're completely ignoring the fact that wins at the upper echelon are far more valuable than wins around replacement level. ie) For a 6 WAR player the 6th win a player provides is significantly more valuable than the first win.

[L54]

Yes because the Donaldson trade is decided after half a season. Every time we do this the Donaldson trade looks slightly better for the As

 

Gravemen is now pretty much won a rotation spot, Lawrie is staying healhty, Baretto is hot.

 

But it is 100% certain that 30something Donaldson will out perform them

 

It's basically a 4-2 WAR right now if you average bbref WAR and Fangraphs. this is the type of trade (like dickey) with the As holding all the younger players.

 

The first time I did this I said --

 

Lawrie could hit .280 with 20 homers, Gravemen could be a staple in the rotation, Barretto get hot and regain top prospect status.

 

I was told

 

"YOU ARE DUMB, STOP TALKING IN HYPOTHETICALS -- LAWRIE, GRAVEMEN, BARRETO SUCKKKKK!!!!"

 

Now in 2 months the "hypothetical" is allready on track. The trade (so far) is still a win for the Jays, but things can change quick,.

 

There is value in 4 WAR coming from one player as opposed to coming from three. Not to mention, that 4 WAR player being arb eligible.

[L54]

Also, I would like to see the quotes where anyone said Lawrie, Graveman and Barreto suck.

[GD]

You're completely ignoring the fact that wins at the upper echelon are far more valuable than wins around replacement level. ie) For a 6 WAR player the 6th win a player provides is significantly more valuable than the first win.

 

There is value in 4 WAR coming from one player as opposed to coming from three. Not to mention, that 4 WAR player being arb eligible.

 

what they said^^

[McD]

what they said^^

 

You're completely ignoring the fact that wins at the upper echelon are far more valuable than wins around replacement level. ie) For a 6 WAR player the 6th win a player provides is significantly more valuable than the first win.

 

Why is this the case?

[DuckDuckGose]

Why is this the case?

 

Hard to explain without going in to a really long answer but I'll do my best. Its much easier to acquire 1-to-2-win players than 4-win players and even harder to acquire than 6-win players. So with elite players on the roster it's easier to increase your run differential by adding surplus assets from other teams. A bunch of 2-win common assets won't win you a WS. So you need to add wins somewhere but the scarcity of elite guys makes it harder to increase your run differential as you add wins.

[Olerud363]

Hard to explain without going in to a really long answer but I'll do my best. Its much easier to acquire 1-to-2-win players than 4-win players and even harder to acquire than 6-win players. So with elite players on the roster it's easier to increase your run differential by adding surplus assets from other teams. A bunch of 2-win common assets won't win you a WS. So you need to add wins somewhere but the scarcity of elite guys makes it harder to increase your run differential as you add wins.

 

Not quite... if everyone was really exactly a 2 you'd get a playoff spot... it would be almost impossible to have 25-2s.... but if you imagine a team with a lot of platoons, decent starters, killer bullpen, it would be a good team.

 

It wouldn't happen because of random variation... so even if everyone's "true talent" was -2 you'd have a mix of 0s, 1s, 2s, and 4s...

 

no one would recognize it's an even team and they'd make up narratives regarding good and bad players...

 

Anyway if you have a 6 and a 0 it is easier to improve the 0, if you have two 3s, it is harder to improve one of the 3s. For example once we got Donaldson we were able to replace Lawrie with Travis.

[BigCecil]

I don't understand that comment. If they are cheap and not MLB players the A's get nothing out of it.

 

My comment was on their cost and not their value. Cheap isn't really helpful if they never make a meaningful impact on an MLB roster or aren't useful in a trade to bring you someone who is. Clearly Beane thought there was a reasonable probability of FV.

[Olerud363]

what they said^^

 

I realize this but as ussual they are missing my point. Which is

 

1. I'm not saying it is a bad trade... I am saying the trade is yet to be decided.

2. Donaldson is quite likely as high as he'll ever be. Scott Rolen didn't put up 8 win seasons in his 30s. He went 9 WAR at 29, then -1-5-2 from 29-32.

3. If Donaldson pulls a Scott Rolen, or a Ken Griffey Jr, or a Frank Thomas or does what any number of players have done in their 30s people will be singing a different tune in a couple of years.

4. When you trade lots of young players you may get burned.

 

One of Barreto, Gravemen, or Lawrie may explode to the upside. Individually you can look at these guys and explain why they will only be 2 or 3 WAR. However there will be random variation around the predictions, and that randomness may lead to 2 of them failing and one becoming that high WAR player. Or it could lead to all 3 of them contributing to an As playoff run in a couple years.

[Olerud363]

Also, I would like to see the quotes where anyone said Lawrie, Graveman and Barreto suck.

 

I can't find the thread now but in April or May, when all players were struggling, I said that Lawrie "could" hit .280 with 20 homers, Gravemen could put up a 3.00 era, Barretto could contibute as a very young player.

 

People were quite rude and basically said "they haven't done any of that yet and there is no evidence they could"... anyway 2 months later they are basically on track for decent seasons.

 

My point isn't that 3 decent seasons = Donaldson. It is that Donaldson at 29, may not = Donaldson 30-32, and there is still a lot of + upside to the As players.

 

These players could contribute to an As playoff run, while the Jays struggle... Even if he is elite in his 30s, I get the feeling that Donaldson won't be happy wasting them with a 78 win Jays team.

[metafour]

Even if he is elite in his 30s, I get the feeling that Donaldson won't be happy wasting them with a 78 win Jays team.

 

I get the feeling that you're literally just spewing s*** in order to make some sort of stink.

 

Of course the players that the A's traded for have some sort of upside, if they didn't it would make absolutely no sense to trade an MVP caliber player in his prime on a hilariously team-friendly contract, now would it? What the f*** are you even proposing, that the only time you can ever make a trade is when the opposing team gets literally zero value in return? You have to win a trade 10 to 0 otherwise "the guys you traded away could haunt you!!"?

 

You aren't fooling anyone with your agenda. I love how your two potential outcomes on Donaldson are that he either falls apart completely at only age 30-32, or that he somehow goes psychotic on a losing team "if" he's still elite...because apparently not only are you a world-renowned psychologist, but you're also apparently a psychic what with your ability to predict where this Jays team will be 2-3 years from now. Bravo.

[Boxcar]

I get the feeling that you're literally just spewing s*** in order to make some sort of stink.

 

How would you know? Can you smell things over the internet now?

[KingKat]

How would you know? Can you smell things over the internet now?

 

Took me a while to get this joke.

[Olerud363]

I get the feeling that you're literally just spewing s*** in order to make some sort of stink.

 

Of course the players that the A's traded for have some sort of upside, if they didn't it would make absolutely no sense to trade an MVP caliber player in his prime on a hilariously team-friendly contract, now would it? What the f*** are you even proposing, that the only time you can ever make a trade is when the opposing team gets literally zero value in return? You have to win a trade 10 to 0 otherwise "the guys you traded away could haunt you!!"?

 

You aren't fooling anyone with your agenda. I love how your two potential outcomes on Donaldson are that he either falls apart completely at only age 30-32, or that he somehow goes psychotic on a losing team "if" he's still elite...because apparently not only are you a world-renowned psychologist, but you're also apparently a psychic what with your ability to predict where this Jays team will be 2-3 years from now. Bravo.

 

My agenda is that I have a problem with people making definitive statements about a trade 3 months in.

 

Obviously I'm not allowed to point out hypothetical futures... because the past is an indication of the future... here are my predictions for the next 4 years.

 

Donaldson WAR 2015-2018 - 8-8-8-8

Lawrie WAR 2015-2018 - 2-2-2-2

Gravemen WAR 2015-2018 2-2-2-2

 

Barreto 2015-2018 - a+ Stockton .290 .320 .450 or so line

 

These players will neiter surprise nor dissapoint. They will evolve in no way. They will not age. What is now, will continue... forever.

 

On this message board we aim to develop good soldiers for coorporate America... do not speculate on possible futures... if you want to suceed be smiley, be confident, and be 100% certain.