Sabermetrics | Introduction and Discussion

[Jimcanuck]

Pompey's OBP at Buffalo is at .384 after last night's triple and BB

 

He's quite possibly the best OF in the Jays org ATM

[flafson]

Pompey's OBP at Buffalo is at .384 after last night's triple and BB

 

He's quite possibly the best OF in the Jays org ATM

 

Because AAA > MLB?

[flafson]

lol @ Tulo already being #8 according to both after 9 games.

 

Right after the trade he was interviewed and said he's at his best when the team around him is competitive. I guess he wasn't joking.

[gbill2004]

Good thing AA passed on Melky!

[bendera3]

terrible range and below average speed

 

I'd imagine in the next couple years he'll be regulated to either 1st or 3rd base.

[baloojayz]

I'd imagine in the next couple years he'll be regulated to either 1st or 3rd base.

 

If Pompey goes to RF maybe. Revere-Pillar-Pompey. Bautista to 1B

[BigCecil]

If Pompey goes to RF maybe. Revere-Pillar-Pompey. Bautista to 1B

 

That actually makes sense defensively (except for what Jose gives up defensively to Smoak) but what net gain does Pompey give us on offense is the question. Jose likes RF and the upside has to be worth the move to be worth that disruption.

 

When I see a line up with an IF of JD - Tulo - Travis(Goins) - Smoak (NOT Colla) anchored by Martin I'm a very happy guy. Don't fix it if it ain't broke?

[abola2121]

I'd imagine in the next couple years he'll be regulated to either 1st or 3rd base.

 

Or traded to make room for Pompey.

[BigCecil]

I'd imagine in the next couple years he'll be regulated to either 1st or 3rd base.

 

Jose will never go back to 3B at this point in his career.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Agreed....move Jose to 3rd and trade whoever our 3rd baser is! (can't recall who we have at 3rd!!...????)

[jaysblue]

Tulo should already be worth 9 WAR since the Jays are 9-0 with him in the starting lineup!

[LTR]

Pillar has the 3rd highest BsR in baseball, believe it or not:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

[gbill2004]

Pillar has the 3rd highest BsR in baseball, believe it or not:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

 

What does BsR mean?

[LTR]

What does BsR mean?

 

Base running stat.

 

"Stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc)"

[SSTP]

Tulo should already be worth 9 WAR since the Jays are 9-0 with him in the starting lineup!

 

almost as effective as Reyes was in 60 less games

[glory]

Next season I'd be down for Bautista at 1B and some combination of Pillar, Pompey, Revere, and Saunders in the outfield. Get as much defense as possible, and maybe put less wear and tear on Jose's body.

[Jimcanuck]

Because AAA > MLB?

 

I've taken the adjustment into account

[LTR]

Next season I'd be down for Bautista at 1B and some combination of Pillar, Pompey, Revere, and Saunders in the outfield. Get as much defense as possible, and maybe put less wear and tear on Jose's body.

 

Maybe it was just Saunders injured leg, but from what I've seen of him he looks like a sloth in the OF.

[theblujay]

I've seen this debate a bunch of times but never really seen a clear answer either way. Is there a weak contact skill?

 

Related: how do babip and luck tie in with LD and GB rates? Like is having a high LD rate mean the pitcher is getting unlucky or making bad pitches. And is every ball in play really equal from the pitchers perspective. It seems intuitive that "good" pitches would create worse contact than "bad" pitches but is that not true or do the number of good and bad pitches just even out over a large sample?

[ElNik2013]

With the pitching depth the team was building for 2016 now traded away, I think the team may look to deal Pillar or Pompey for a young SP. Ideally, you'd want Revere or Saunders traded, but we know Saunders's value is close to 0 and Revere may not get you much so that leaves Pillar and Pompey.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Pretty much. Now with his shoulder injury this year his arm may not be a factor in the near future.

 

The dude can still throw and I've seen enough games where the 3B coach stop a player just out of fear of his arm. Teams do not challenge him often.

 

Yeah that is certainly correct. Bautista has a really good arm, seems to get good reads and has passable speed. He's not a god by any stretch but he's far from being a liability. I don't think he's even close to needing a shift to 1st base. Maybe if they sign Jason Heyward (early wishlist) this winter Bautista can switch positions but otherwise not quite yet.

[BigCecil]

Have seen a few debates on the board lately about old school evaluation vs sabrmetrics as if its an either or discussion.

 

I'm 50; been a fan since Thurman Munson was a player. Played the game at a really decent level and coach my 7 year old who is a lights out arm already. Love this game. Yet only a few yrs ago I have to admit I remember arguing Cabrera should get the MVP over Trout because of the Triple Crown. In retrospect I SMH at that. I appreciate some of the guys on this Board who take the time to spell things out in rational arguments without being arrogant dicks about it.

 

There are still intangibles that are difficult to quantify imo, but sabrmetrics is the "Uber" of evaluating value in baseball. Its a better mousetrap.

Edited August 13, 2015 by BigCecil

[nextyear]

Have seen a few debates on the board lately about old school evaluation vs sabrmetrics as if its an either or discussion.

 

I'm 50; been a fan since Thurman Munson was a player. Played the game at a really decent level and coach my 7 year old who is a lights out arm already. Love this game. Yet only a few yrs ago I have to admit I remember arguing Cabrera should get the MVP over Trout because of the Triple Crown. In retrospect I SMH at that. I appreciate some of the guys on this Board who take the time to spell things out in rational arguments without being arrogant dicks about it.

 

There are still intangibles that are difficult to quantify imo, but sabrmetrics is the "Uber" of evaluating value in baseball. Its a better mousetrap.

 

 

I agree with the rationale of Sabermetrics.

 

I followed the game back in the early 1970's when on-base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG) weren't even mentioned on TV and radio broadcasts, even though it was realized by a few that it was a better measure than batting average going back as far as the 1950's - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slugging_percentage. (before I was even born) There is little question that Sabermetric stats such as OBP and SLG (to mention just a couple) provide far more information than just batting average or home run totals as was commonly provided on broadcasts 40 years ago.

 

However, not all Sabermetrics are justifiable and some are even disputed by people such as Bill James, who is one of the pioneers of Sabermetrics. I posted this short article in the General Thread - http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/29/bill-james-not-a-statistical-guru-not-impressed-by-war/ There is also a question and answer session that is posted by ESPN - http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/3503

 

Since this thread isn't intended to discuss the validity of all Sabermetric statistics, is there a separate thread for discussing the validity of ones such as WAR and FIP?. I believe in most of Sabermetric stats but there are few that I don't believe in (or more accurately, I question their reliability as predictive values). If Bill James can question some Sabermetrics such as WAR then I am not stupid or an idiot to do so also (as some have suggested in another thread).

 

In short, is there a separate thread to discuss the validity of some of the Sabermetrics?

Edited August 17, 2015 by nextyear

[Abomination]

Imo this thread is perfectly appropriate for that discussion.

[BigCecil]

Have seen a few debates on the board lately about old school evaluation vs sabrmetrics as if its an either or discussion.

 

I'm 50; been a fan since Thurman Munson was a player. Played the game at a really decent level and coach my 7 year old who is a lights out arm already. Love this game. Yet only a few yrs ago I have to admit I remember arguing Cabrera should get the MVP over Trout because of the Triple Crown. In retrospect I SMH at that. I appreciate some of the guys on this Board who take the time to spell things out in rational arguments without being arrogant dicks about it.

 

There are still intangibles that are difficult to quantify imo, but sabrmetrics is the "Uber" of evaluating value in baseball. Its a better mousetrap.

 

I agree with the rational of Sabermetrics.

 

I followed the game back in the early 1970's when on-base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG) weren't even mentioned on TV and radio broadcasts, even though it was realized by a few that it was a better measure than batting average going back to the 1950's - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slugging_percentage. (before I was even born)

 

However, not all Sabermetrics are justifiable and some are even disputed by people such as Bill James, who is one of the pioneers of Sabermetrics. I posted this short article in the General Thread - http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/29/bill-james-not-a-statistical-guru-not-impressed-by-war/ There is also a question and answer session that is posted by ESPN - http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/3503

 

Since this thread isn't intended to discuss the validity of all Sabermetric statistics, is there a separate thread for discussing the validity of ones such as WAR and FIP?. I believe in probably 90% - 95% of Sabermetrics but there are few that I don't believe in. If Bill James can question some Sabermetrics such as WAR then I am not stupid or an idiot to do so also (as some have suggested in another thread).

 

In short, is there a separate thread to discuss the validity of some of the Sabermetrics?

 

This is the thread to discuss it imo. Im sure there are many sabr experienced guys on here who would love to challenge or debate any validity; anomalies; assertions on the numbers or intangibles etc respectfully.

[o2cui2i]

Everyone should always be questioning the purpose, validity, accuracy and relevance of every metric they use. Know how they are calculated, what assumptions they rely on and what questions they seek to answer. As the question a statistic aims to answer becomes more abstract, flaws in a statistic's suitability will emerge. No stat can perfectly answer a complex question such as "how good at baseball is player X" or "exactly how many wins did player Y contribute to his team."

 

WAR and FIP serve specific purposes and they are good at answering some very relevant questions.

 

aren't WAR and FIP stats for evaluating players more than predictive tools? am I see them improperly?

[nextyear]

Everyone should always be questioning the purpose, validity, accuracy and relevance of every metric they use. Know how they are calculated, what assumptions they rely on and what questions they seek to answer. As the question a statistic aims to answer becomes more abstract, flaws in a statistic's suitability will emerge. No stat can perfectly answer a complex question such as "how good at baseball is player X" or "exactly how many wins did player Y contribute to his team."

 

WAR and FIP serve specific purposes and they are good at answering some very relevant questions.

 

 

Thank you for this thoughtful reply.

[GD]

aren't WAR and FIP stats for evaluating players more than predictive tools? am I see them improperly?

 

This is exactly correct. Predictive stats usually have x in front of them. SIERA doesn't but you get the drift.

[o2cui2i]

This is exactly correct. Predictive stats usually have x in front of them. SIERA doesn't but you get the drift.

 

good... I'm not completely lost. lol

[nextyear]

aren't WAR and FIP stats for evaluating players more than predictive tools? am I see them improperly?

 

This sounds reasonable.

 

One source that I found claims to have compared actual wins versus the total team WAR over a period of 10 years for all 30 teams each year (300 data points) and plotted the results. He fit an equation of Actual Wins = (0.973826 * total_team_WAR) + 48.533 wins, which is considered to be significant since 48 wins corresponds to a team made up of all Replacement level players (or in other words, total_team_WAR = 0).

 

The article is at this link - http://stats.seandolinar.com/predicting-baseball-wins-with-war/. The author, Sean Dolinar, did the analysis of the WAR wins and also compared it with Pythagorean equation.

 

For the WAR analysis the author, Sean Dolinar, states that the 95 percent confidence level is 20 wins (it appears to be approximately ± 10 wins of the calculated team WAR + 48, since it appears to be a fairly normal distribution based on the data he provided). The following quote is from the article: "The actual implementation of WAR works really well to predict teams wins. Unfortunately, this model will have a 95% prediction interval of 20 wins. That seems like a lot but, it shows how much luck has to do with a baseball season.".

 

Here is the resulting plot (below) for the actual wins versus WAR over a 10 year period, using the fangraphs WAR values. Note: the article has an interactive plot with clickable data points.

 

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img661/870/l1ujFX.png

Edited August 17, 2015 by nextyear