Alford vs. D.J. Davis

[Olerud363]

So D.J. Davis had a big night last night....

 

I noticed he was born the same week as Alford. Both are having interesting seasons in low A...

 

Question -- Is D.J. Davis really nothing and Alford still has potential??

 

So Alford played football and guns for 3 years... Davis s***** baseball... now they've reached apr. the same point.

 

But because Alford has no experience will he develop further, while Davis will not??

 

What I mean is this. Take two prospects, same age, one with previous s***** minor league experience, one without any.

 

Will the one without any develop?? While the one with s***** experience will go back to being s*****??

[Olerud363]

by the way... I always think of Alex Rios in situations like this.

 

I hear "D.J. Davis is s*****, very s*****, there is no chance at all that he will ever develop. It cannot happen as it is against the laws of statistics. It is impossible for D.J. to progress further because he was so s*****."

 

However Alex Rios progressed from total s*** 19/20 year old, to good prospect, to sometimes good major leaguer with 5 WARS.

 

So I think the statement is more like.

 

D.J. Davis is very s*****. He probably won't ever be anything. Though occasionally guys progress in their early 20s. Alex Rios did. He had low strikeout rates though. So I am not about Davis... probably nothing, but as ussual no one knows for sure."

[bendera3]

Davis strikes out a ton without plus power and has speed but looks like he can't translate it into stealing bases efficiently. He's been a few years younger than the average of all the leagues he's been in, but it seems as though he can barely keep his head afloat in them.

 

Alford on the other hand was preoccupied with football so his baseball statistics don't really mean anything because he only played a couple of weeks and then it was football time.

 

I don't think Davis is nothing, but I'd put Alford ahead of him of prospect lists.

[Angrioter]

DJ have some Austin Jackson in him. He could be something useful if he can hit the baseball and learn how to steal a bag.

[KingKat]

Davis strikes out a ton without plus power and has speed but looks like he can't translate it into stealing bases efficiently. He's been a few years younger than the average of all the leagues he's been in, but it seems as though he can barely keep his head afloat in them.

 

Alford on the other hand was preoccupied with football so his baseball statistics don't really mean anything because he only played a couple of weeks and then it was football time.

 

I don't think Davis is nothing, but I'd put Alford ahead of him of prospect lists.

 

We also should consider the starting point too. Alford's commitment to football topredoed his draft position but my impression is that he probably would have been considered a better pre-draft prospect if he had made the commitment to baseball right off the bat. D.J. Davis as an athletic 1st round talent wasn't a slouch but Alford's was probably the best pure athlete in his draft class and that reputation has made a lot of people very, very curious about what he can do now.

[Olerud363]

Alford certainly has a strange stats line... it is weird that he is getting all those walks...

 

I know that he is in a low level where pitchers don't have control... but on the other hand it's not like that happens often. I can't remember a guy walking as much as Alford does at low a... especially a guy without power.

[bendera3]

Let Tim Raines try his hand at Davis.

[Brownie19]

We also should consider the starting point too. Alford's commitment to football topredoed his draft position but my impression is that he probably would have been considered a better pre-draft prospect if he had made the commitment to baseball right off the bat. D.J. Davis as an athletic 1st round talent wasn't a slouch but Alford's was probably the best pure athlete in his draft class and that reputation has made a lot of people very, very curious about what he can do now.

 

^this.

 

It's so painful to see how close we were to Giolitto...

[GD]

Lol do we have a confirmed date of birth on DJ Davis now?

[TheHurl]

Guys like Rios are reasons why purely stat scouting a top draft pick (although Rios was not a first round guy, Jays took him there and he signed for 2nd round money). You'd have to also know that he gained 20 pounds in his first year with the org and his swing was completely re-tooled. The HUGE plus side of Rios was that he was not striking out. K-Rates are so much more of an indicator in the minors than hit rates. Power being the other big indicator.

 

Davis has shown his first dip in his K-Rates and can almost be watched month to month now. I'm not saying that everyone that has low K-Rates is Alex Rios. But for a guy that is raw and athletic like Davis (or Alford) I'd rather see the K-Rates going down...than more hits falling in. BB rates are nice to see and sometimes being patient is a factor in the KRates too (more patience means working with 2 strikes more often) but it just has to be known that Minor league BB rates often don't carry over into the MLB. We should not expect Alford to carry over a 15% BB rate...so the K-Rate better come down.

 

Honestly I don't even have stats on this stuff. This is purely experience and spending far too much time trying to look at numbers/minor league players.

[Caper]

Here's a question. A hypothetical. Let's say after Davis's big games yesturday, he was suddenly eligible for the draft. I guess he's about a year younger then a college senior or around the same age Stroman was when he got drafted. Where do you think he goes in the draft? I ask this, because after how far he has fallen, even though it was one huge game, it feels like we got a free new prospect.

[Olerud363]

Lol do we have a confirmed date of birth on DJ Davis now?

 

Both him and Alford are listed as being born in July 1994... I remember there was some minor controversey about this.. but I thought it was just basically a typo somewhere.

[GD]

Here's a question. A hypothetical. Let's say after Davis's big games yesturday, he was suddenly eligible for the draft. I guess he's about a year younger then a college senior or around the same age Stroman was when he got drafted. Where do you think he goes in the draft? I ask this, because after how far he has fallen, even though it was one huge game, it feels like we got a free new prospect.

 

In this draft or an average draft? Cause this draft is pretty s*** lol

[Olerud363]

Here's a question. A hypothetical. Let's say after Davis's big games yesturday, he was suddenly eligible for the draft. I guess he's about a year younger then a college senior or around the same age Stroman was when he got drafted. Where do you think he goes in the draft? I ask this, because after how far he has fallen, even though it was one huge game, it feels like we got a free new prospect.

 

Good question... and that was what I was wondering... How much do his age 17. 18 and 19 seasons count for??

 

Let's say Davis had no history, like Alford. Everyone would be going nuts right now.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Good question... and that was what I was wondering... How much do his age 17. 18 and 19 seasons count for??

 

Let's say Davis had no history, like Alford. Everyone would be going nuts right now.

 

IMHO any prospects past season(s) should be ignored after a few months into a successful season. It's all about development and if a player develops

isn't that the goal? His past unsuccessful seasons can be stored on the back shelf.

Glad to see that DJD finally getting his "tools" in some type of semblance of order instead of scattered all over the floor.

[theblujay]

If the K rate continues to fall and his speed can be used effectively then I'm very intrigued again

[TheHurl]

Good question... and that was what I was wondering... How much do his age 17. 18 and 19 seasons count for??

 

Let's say Davis had no history, like Alford. Everyone would be going nuts right now.

 

Tough to compare. He would be in the boat of a guy that showed little college progression for his Freshman and sophomore years and now started to show some signs. Chances are he's a 5th or 6th rounder though. Really tough to compare the two though. Instead lets look where he is compared to other prep bats from his class.

 

(just where they have progressed to and their MiLB OPS as I'm not going too in depth here)

 

Buxton AA .859

Almora AA .756

Dahl AA .858

Russell MLB .897

Cecchini AA .707

Hawkins AA .734

Davis LowA .682

Seager (oops) AAA .929

Trahan A .758

Coulter High A .848

Brinson High A .795

Robertson AA .805

Gallo MLB 1.010

Olson AA .850

Barnum High A .696

Winker AA .863

Valentin High A .734

Nay High A .712

Bean A .682

 

so the point is to stop viewing Davis as a first rounder (he's not even keeping up with the catchers from his class), instead view him like anyone else from his draft class that needs continued improvement to make it.

[Caper]

Tough to compare. He would be in the boat of a guy that showed little college progression for his Freshman and sophomore years and now started to show some signs. Chances are he's a 5th or 6th rounder though. Really tough to compare the two though. Instead lets look where he is compared to other prep bats from his class.

 

(just where they have progressed to and their MiLB OPS as I'm not going too in depth here)

 

Buxton AA .859

Almora AA .756

Dahl AA .858

Russell MLB .897

Cecchini AA .707

Hawkins AA .734

Davis LowA .682

Seager (oops) AAA .929

Trahan A .758

Coulter High A .848

Brinson High A .795

Robertson AA .805

Gallo MLB 1.010

Olson AA .850

Barnum High A .696

Winker AA .863

Valentin High A .734

Nay High A .712

Bean A .682

 

so the point is to stop viewing Davis as a first rounder (he's not even keeping up with the catchers from his class), instead view him like anyone else from his draft class that needs continued improvement to make it.

 

 

 

I don't think that's very representative though, Davis has made a lot of changes. Try using data from all the same guys just using the numbers from June 8th/2015 to June 8th/2015.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

I don't think that's very representative though, Davis has made a lot of changes. Try using data from all the same guys just using the numbers from June 8th/2015 to June 8th/2015.

 

Thanks for laff!!

 

Well done!

[metafour]

Davis was a super young kid from a state that is very poor for high school talent. He is absolutely still a prospect, as he is still nearly 2 years younger than average for the Midwest League. Is he still a longshot? Yes, but his strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and his hitting is up in literally every aspect. His OBP and SLG are both up by literally 100 points from last season. That is called improvement.

 

People expect every kid to look like a top player right out of the gate. That isn't how it works all the time.

[Nafro]

I don't think that's very representative though, Davis has made a lot of changes. Try using data from all the same guys just using the numbers from June 8th/2015 to June 8th/2015.

 

Wow, I just projected Davis to have 1200 RBI's in the course of a season, playing 150 games... with 150 HR's. Pfft Buxton, Seager, Gallo, Russell. DJ Davis is DA MAN.