Sanchez Performance To Date

[ScientificReason]

Battle of the Advanced Stats Nerds. Grabs Popcorn.

[JaysFan75]

Given 30 runs of support and the good batted ball and event sequencing luck that Sanchez has enjoyed, I believe a replacement pitcher like Estrada may have managed to go 4-2.

 

Estrada had a start. 5 runs in 4.2 innings. A worse result than any of Sanchez's starts. Besides, Estrada is already in the rotation, so it's a bit of a moot point.

[Nafro]

I don't see how you can realistically say that a replacement player would have had a better win-loss record.

 

I hate this poor fellow being called "replacement player". Can we give him a name like Mitts McGee or Uncle Shitsy?

[Nafro]

Fine, a mix of Estrada, Hendriks and Norris could have done more with 30 runs of support and great luck than Sanchez did.

 

In that case he would be Hendrik NorStrada

[JaysFan75]

Fine, a mix of Estrada, Hendriks and Norris could have done more with 30 runs of support and great luck than Sanchez did.

 

But they probably wouldn't have had the same luck Sanchez has, meaning that you probably wouldn't have had more wins.

[Brownie19]

Worst discussion ever.

[Deadpool]

I hate this poor fellow being called "replacement player". Can we give him a name like Mitts McGee or Uncle Shitsy?

 

I would totally love the stat to be WAUS. Let's make that happen...

 

Also, can we understand that just because the stat has the word "WINS" in it, it does not necessarily reflect on the exact number of team wins? It's a stat, just like say... OPS or OBA are stats. The point of the stat is that someone with a lower WAR is a worse player, just like someone with a lower OPS is a worse player, though WAR attempts to combine all (relevant) stats to give an overall value of contribution, rather than just looking at offence or defence or pitching.

 

The argument that "the team won while Sanchez was pitching, therefore WAR is wrong" is just as silly as saying a guy with a .100 AVG was a great player, because every hit he got all season drove in the winning run. You look at the stat (.100 AVG, in this case) and go "yeah, overall that's a s***** player despite the incidental contributions he has made in a few places..."

 

The fact that WAR looks at the complete package of a player is the only reason Goins is "pretty bad and probably shouldn't have a roster spot" rather than "HOLY GOD, HOW IS THIS MAN NOT FLIPPING BURGERS FOR A LIVING", which is what you would get if you just looked at his offensive stats.

[Deadpool]

But they probably wouldn't have had the same luck Sanchez has, meaning that you probably wouldn't have had more wins.

 

Clearly, Sanchez's LAR is higher than average. Who could argue that point?

[JaysFan75]

They wouldn't have had the same run support either. It's an entirely hypothetical calculation, yes. But you said that Sanchez's pitching hasn't cost the team wins and we can only evaluate that statement by holding the offense and luck constant and comparing his pitching to the expected level of performance of replacement pitchers.

 

If someone else had pitched, the "luck" they experienced would likely have been dramatically different. If I roll a set of dice 5 times and get 5 pairs, the likelihood that you would have had the same luck and rolled 5 pairs remains very low.

[JaysFan75]

You're correct; this is what I was getting at initially. The luck doesn't belong to Sanchez. That the Blue Jays experienced good luck while Sanchez was standing on the mound is immaterial to his performance. Countless other things happened in the universe while Aaron Sanchez was standing on the mound too and they are similarly immaterial to his performance.

 

He has pitched poorly yet luck and defence counteracted that to produce good run prevention.

 

Again, not saying he hasn't pitched poorly. Just saying that it hasn't cost the team in Wins and Losses. Having said that, I believe he will perform better for the remainder of the year than he has to date. As I said on my first post in this thread, I think that for the rest of the year he will do the following:

 

BB/9 < 5

HR/9 < 1

BABIP < Average

WAR > 1 (assuming he stays in the starting rotation)

[JaysFan75]

You're correct; this is what I was getting at initially. The luck doesn't belong to Sanchez. That the Blue Jays experienced good luck while Sanchez was standing on the mound is immaterial to his performance. Countless other things happened in the universe while Aaron Sanchez was standing on the mound too and they are similarly immaterial to his performance.

 

He has pitched poorly yet luck and defence counteracted that to produce good run prevention.

 

I will agree with this, except that I think that a ground ball pitcher like Sanchez might benefit from luck and good defense more than a high HR pitcher like Estrada.

[Candide]

I'm trying to think of which other Blue Jays were as polarizing of a figure as Sanchez is today. Arencibia comes to mind, as does Lawrie. AJ Burnett as well. But can't think of any one else, really, and none of those three have garnered as much debate as Sanchez has to date.

[baubau]

Sanchez is on the path to becoming Ricky Ro part 2. Good team efforts getting the wins hiding his terrible command.

[Jimcanuck]

I'm trying to think of which other Blue Jays were as polarizing of a figure as Sanchez is today. Arencibia comes to mind, as does Lawrie. AJ Burnett as well. But can't think of any one else, really, and none of those three have garnered as much debate as Sanchez has to date.

 

Goins

[Boxcar]

lol.

 

JFaS and Nox have no idea how they work either, so I wouldn't laugh.

[GD]

I'm an Advanced Stats Fan as well. I look at Fangraphs.com every day. The difference between myself and North, it would seem, is that he has no idea how they work.

 

god damnit and I JUST got a new sig

 

to sig or not to sig?

[theblujay]

Sanchez>>>>Estrada

[over500]

Sanchez>>>>Estrada

s***>Turd

[Mikeleelop]

Rookies learn and develop generally

 

People on this board need to realize this

[Mikeleelop]

s***>Turd

 

Wow

[Jimcanuck]

taking Wednesday afternoon off work to pray

[Nox]

Sanchez might benefit from luck and good defense more than a high HR pitcher like Estrada.

 

The idea of someone consistently benefiting from luck is counter to what the term means in this context.

[JaysFan75]

The idea of someone consistently benefiting from luck is counter to what the term means in this context.

 

Depends how you interpret my statement. What I mean is that when a ground ball pitcher has good luck it might be of more benefit to him than a high HR pitcher like Estrada. Conversely, when they have bad luck it might do them more harm.

 

Let's take a sample size of 2 balls hit in play. Let's say in one game Sanchez has 2 ground balls hit hard directly at Josh Donaldson, as opposed to directly down the left field line. Both of those balls would likely be outs instead of base hits based purely on luck as Sanchez has no real control as to whether they are hit at Donaldson or down the line. Let's say in another game Estrada allows 2 home run balls hit directly over Josh Donaldson instead of directly down the first base line. There will be no benefit to Estrada in this case.

 

Let's take another game where Sanchez has 2 hard ground balls hit directly down the third base line instead of directly at Donaldson. In this case the exact opposite happens. Over the course of a season, or a career, things will even out, but in a small sample size, Sanchez might benefit more from good luck than a pitcher such as Estrada. Obviously there will be a lot more at bats in these games, but even a few at bats in a game can have a large impact on the result. I'm not saying that this is what's happened here, but I believe that it is a possibility, and might in part explain part of what has happened with Sanchez this season.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

There is a expression " Sometimes it's better to be lucky then Good"

 

Hell ain't a person on this board that would care if we lucked our way to a World Series here!

 

If that stats sucked and we Win, f*** the Stats!

[Nox]

Depends how you interpret my statement. What I mean is that when a ground ball pitcher has good luck it might be of more benefit to him than a high HR pitcher like Estrada. Conversely, when they have bad luck it might do them more harm.

 

This is just referring to underlying GB rate skill then.

 

I'm not saying that this is what's happened here, but I believe that it is a possibility, and might in part explain part of what has happened with Sanchez this season

 

It really just sounds like you're searching for a narrative.

[JaysFan75]

It really just sounds like you're searching for a narrative.

 

I was just observing that as a ground ball pitcher, Sanchez might have more variation in BAPIP or "Luck" from start to start than normal. One game where most balls get hit at infielders, and another game where they all seem to go through. So far this season it seems that they've mostly been hit at the infielders. I don't think there is enough data on Sanchez to say one way or another at this point, so it's purely theoretical at this point. This wasn't my main point, just something that came out of the "Conversation".

 

Call it searching for a narrative if you like.