GDT: ST Jays vs Rays (March 12)

[G-Snarls]

[G-Snarls]

Much like Smoak though, Estrada could fall victim to the small sample size game. Homerun rate over small sample sizes doesn't mean much but high homerun rate over a small sample size combined with a high one over a long sample last year, could spell trouble for him. Remember the Jays gave up on Jesse Chavez over far less than this.

 

AA *says* every year that he doesn't pay too much attention to results in spring training. Then every year makes some decisions that clearly show he does pay attention.

[G-Snarls]

Sounds like he probably just got drunk or something last night, playing with a hangover or some such

 

Yeah. Anyway good news.

[gruber92]

Pompey don't like humidity..

[glory]

Wilner saying Estrada only gave up one HR. I guess that's a relief.

[Daniel Labude]

Post of the year so far!!!

[Spanky99]

I seem to recall something to the effect that he could be cut for a minimal cost but maybe that opportunity has passed. In any case, the salary may make it easier to clear him and option him to the minors. I would definitely prefer that then putting him in the bullpen where there are already a couple of long men in Hendriks and Redmond.

 

It has, he had to be cut prior to arbitration.

[KingKat]

AA *says* every year that he doesn't pay too much attention to results in spring training. Then every year makes some decisions that clearly show he does pay attention.

 

It's just hard to not be influenced by what you see on the boxscores even if you tell yourself you won't be.

[Angrioter]

Pompey don't like humidity..

Then, he's virgin; can't handle a pussy wet.

[G-Snarls]

It's just hard to not be influenced by what you see on the boxscores even if you tell yourself you won't be.

 

I'm sure it is

[Sammy225]

 

Great he is having a heart attack!

[Atothe]

I can't have this conversion.

 

Mike Wilner?

[glory]

It has, he had to be cut prior to arbitration.

 

Can't they release him prior to the start of the season and only be on the hook for a certain percentage of his salary? I believe they did that with Reed Johnson in 2008.

[Atothe]

Mike Wilner:"North, I can't have this conversation"

Dammit you beat me

[KingKat]

It has, he had to be cut prior to arbitration.

 

O.K. but if he continues to pitch this bad, he won't be attractive to other teams and could be optioned to AAA. I'd hate to not give him a chance to get straightened out in AAA when the rotation has already been thinned out. Occasional mop up duty from the bullpen isn't the answer. That being said, we don't know how the rest of the spring will play out.

[Angrioter]

I can't have this conversion.

 

JFaS is very smart, but he's a Estrada's fanboy.

 

Sanchez is better pitcher, and he know.

[Daniel Labude]

Using all the information available, and properly weighting it, we can say that Estrada is the better pitcher. We can even calculate the % chance Sanchez is actually better.

 

At the same time Sanchez could win the Cy young this year as a starter. I'd take the chance on the Pitcher who actually has talent and is putting it together (slowly)

[KingKat]

At the same time Sanchez could win the Cy young this year as a starter.

 

I'm sorry but this has no basis in reality.

[Spanky99]

O.K. but if he continues to pitch this bad, he won't be attractive to other teams and could be optioned to AAA. I'd hate to not give him a chance to get straightened out in AAA when the rotation has already been thinned out. Occasional mop up duty from the bullpen isn't the answer. That being said, we don't know how the rest of the spring will play out.

 

Yes, agreed on all that.

[Sammy225]

At the same time Sanchez could win the Cy young this year as a starter. I'd take the chance on the Pitcher who actually has talent and is putting it together (slowly)

 

So can J.A Happ but highly unlikely.

[tercet]

lol @ people thinking sanchez is better then estrada

[Daniel Labude]

I'm sorry but this has no basis in reality.

 

That was the point. Numbers can predict someone will be better but when they actually play that prediction mean nothing. For all we know Bautista bombs and hits .200 this year. No one knows until we see it on the field. And right now Sanchez is doing better than Estrada.

[Angrioter]

How can anyone be a fanboy of Estrada POS?

 

Mothef***er changeup (ALA Marcum), can put Strikes, and he's Mexican.

[tercet]

That was the point. Numbers can predict someone will be better but when they actually play that prediction mean nothing. For all we know Bautista bombs and hits .200 this year. No one knows until we see it on the field. And right now Sanchez is doing better than Estrada.

 

5ip sick sample size brah

[Spanky99]

Can't they release him prior to the start of the season and only be on the hook for a certain percentage of his salary? I believe they did that with Reed Johnson in 2008.

 

That was in the contract with RJ. Estrada just avoided arb, and was given that contract, he took a 2 million dollar paycut. (Ballpark figure)

[KingKat]

That was the point. Numbers can predict someone will be better but when they actually play that prediction mean nothing. For all we know Bautista bombs and hits .200 this year. No one knows until we see it on the field. And right now Sanchez is doing better than Estrada.

 

But you don't base your decision on "oh well, you never know", you look at probabilities. Saying Sanchez should start over Estrada because he has a higer probability of winning the Cy Young makes no sense when that probability is practically non existent. It's theoretically possible sure but nothing we know suggests this.

[Atothe]

Sanchez vs Estrada debate, glorious spring training ethos

[Daniel Labude]

But you don't base your decision on "oh well, you never know", you look at probabilities. Saying Sanchez should start over Estrada because he has a higer probability of winning the Cy Young makes no sense when that probability is practically non existent. It's theoretically possible sure but nothing we know suggests this.

 

I'm not basing the decison on that I was just pointing out predictions are worthless to some extent. I'm basing my opinion on how well Sanchez pitched in the majors last year and this spring vs how hr happy crap tasting Estrada has done in my opinion over the same time vs weaker competition.

[intentional wok]

Guys I suddenly feel like driving high. Anyone need a ride somewhere?

[Cyris]

5ip sick sample size brah

What about his performance last season?

 

I'm sure his league leading homerun totals will come down moving to the most home run friendly division in baseball.