MLB'S Most Irreplaceable Players

[flafson]

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/110459806/mlb-most-irreplaceable-players-2015-mike-trout-robinson-cano-miguel-cabrera?partnerId=ed-8975563-658620023

 

In the past couple decades, baseball has seen a dramatic shift toward understanding the true value of players, by assessing context. It's been a massive step in our consumption of the game.

 

But when we look at player value, we're looking at what an individual player contributes, not necessarily his value with regards to his team's situation.

 

Perhaps the perfect example is Adam Wainwright, who met with doctors in St. Louis on Wednesday to discuss lower abdominal pain. Yes, his absence would be a massive blow to the Cardinals. He'll be worth 4.2 wins above a replacement player this season, according to Baseball Prospectus' projections. That's the fourth highest WARP among pitchers.

 

But in the grand scheme of things, the Cardinals are projected to win their division by five games. Without Wainwright's 4.2 WARP, they're still champs. On the other hand, David Price, at 3.5 wins, is worth much more to the Tigers than Wainwright would be to the Cardinals. (That doesn't mean Price will have a better year than Wainwright, only that his absence would be felt more.)

 

With that in mind, we broke down the 10 most irreplaceable players for the 2015 season, using where they fit in the context of playoff races as the No. 1 qualifier.

 

Note: Using PECOTA's projections, anyone on a team projected to finish within four games of a playoff spot qualifies for this list. However, preference is given to players whose teams are projected to make the postseason, but would miss it altogether without that player's contribution.

 

10. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Blue Jays: 4.2 projected WARP

 

PECOTA projection with Donaldson: 83 wins, third place AL East, 3 games back of Wild Card

PECOTA projection without Donaldson: 78-79 wins, no playoffs

 

Donaldson is the only player on this list who switched teams during the offseason, so it's hard to gauge just what kind of impact he'll have on the Blue Jays this season. Right now, Toronto is a chic pick to win the AL East, given its busy offseason, but PECOTA currently has the Blue Jays finishing three games out of a Wild Card spot and four games behind the Red Sox in the AL East.

 

When it comes to backup infielders, the Blue Jays don't exactly have much in terms of a replacement for Donaldson, having traded Brett Lawrie. They're also desperately in need of Donaldson's defense. (He led all AL third basemen with a 15.5 UZR last season.) Donaldson's value is no secret. He finished in the top five in WAR in each of the past two seasons and was probably the No. 1 reason the A's made the playoffs both times. He'll likely be just as irreplaceable in Toronto.

 

9. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates: 4.9 projected WARP

 

PECOTA projection with McCutchen: 80 wins, T-third place NL Central, 4 games back of Wild Card

PECOTA projection without McCutchen: 75-76 wins, no playoffs

 

Where would the Pirates be today without McCutchen? Well, there's a good chance their playoff drought would have ballooned to 22 years. You can make the argument that no player has been more valuable to his team over the past two seasons than McCutchen (in the context of whether he put his team over the playoff hump). So why is McCutchen, arguably the game's second-best all-around player, ranked ninth on this list? It's based on the Pirates' projected 2015 season, not McCutchen's. If he stays healthy, Cutch will almost certainly be a top-five player again. But the Pirates' success might be a different story.

 

Coming off consecutive playoff berths, Pittsburgh could face its biggest challenge yet this year. Within the NL Central, the Cubs and Brewers have improved, and the Cardinals -- assuming Wainwright is healthy -- remain as dangerous as ever. As for the Pirates' path to a third-straight Wild Card, PECOTA projections currently have the NL West scooping up three playoff spots, with the new-look Padres and reigning-champion Giants tied atop the Wild Card forecast.

 

The Pirates will have more obstacles this year than in either of their past two playoff runs, and they'll have to go for it without Russell Martin, who departed for Toronto via free agency. If yet another playoff berth is in the cards, the Bucs will need McCutchen to be, well, McCutchen.

 

8. Jose Bautista, RF, Blue Jays: 5 projected WARP

 

PECOTA projection with Bautista: 83 wins, third place AL East, 3 games back of Wild Card

PECOTA projection without Bautista: 78 wins, no playoffs

 

By trading for Donaldson and signing Martin, the Blue Jays recorded one of the league's splashiest offseasons. But entering 2015, their most pivotal player remains Bautista. The 34-year-old Bautista has never played in the postseason. It looks like 2015 may be his best chance to do so.

 

Most of that burden rests on Bautista himself. For one, he has to remain healthy. He played in 155 games last year but averaged just 105 in the two seasons before that. Plus, there's the question of when his career path will begin its inevitable decline.

 

If the Blue Jays are to snap their playoff drought -- at 21 years, it's currently the longest drought in the Majors -- Bautista is going to have to put up his usual production at the heart of their order.

 

7. Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Marlins: 5.9 projected WARP

 

PECOTA projection with Stanton: 81 wins, third place NL East, 3 games back of Wild Card

PECOTA projection without Stanton: 75-76 wins, no playoffs

 

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There's a good chance the Marlins won't be a playoff team, even with Stanton in their lineup every day. They're very young, and despite some solid additions this offseason, they have holes to fill at the bottom of their order. That's why Stanton, who signed the megadeal of all megadeals in the offseason, isn't higher on this list. Assuming Stanton remains healthy, the Marlins are projected to finish three games out of the second Wild Card spot in the NL.

 

But for as hazy as the Marlins' prospects are for the 2015 season, this much is clear: Without Stanton in the lineup, they really don't stand much of a chance. Stanton is projected to be worth 5.9 wins this season, which is easily the highest number for any player not on a playoff team. Yes, the Marlins have a very serviceable backup outfielder in Ichiro Suzuki, but his production just doesn't compare.

 

Last September should offer us an accurate barometer of Stanton's value. Miami sat two games below .500 and on the fringe of the Wild Card race when Stanton was hit in the face by a fastball. From that point on, Miami went 6-14, finishing fourth in the NL East. Without Stanton anchoring their lineup, the Marlins still aren't much more than a fourth-place team. With Stanton, however, they have legitimate playoff hopes.

 

6. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Mariners: 4.3 projected WARP

 

PECOTA projection with Hernandez: 87 wins, second place AL West, first Wild Card

PECOTA projection without Hernandez: 82-83 wins, no playoffs

 

Hernandez is the first of three AL West players on this list, which goes to show how tight that division figures to be. He's also the only pitcher to crack our top 10, and it's easy to see why. Sure, Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale could be on track for better numbers, but Kershaw's Dodgers are PECOTA's runaway NL West winners -- even if you subtract his contributions -- and Sale's White Sox, while certainly improved from last season, still aren't close enough to contention, according to projections.

 

Then there's Hernandez, who got to taste a pennant race for the first time in his career last season. He pitched in some big games down the stretch -- to mixed results -- and we should expect more of the same this season. If Hernandez is healthy and can offer numbers similar to his 15-6, 2.14 line from a year ago, the Mariners could be poised to end their longstanding playoff drought.

 

5. Buster Posey, C, Giants: 4.5 projected WARP

 

PECOTA projection with Posey: 84 wins, T-2nd NL West, T-1st first NL Wild Card

PECOTA projection without Posey: 79-80 wins, no playoffs

 

It just seems intuitive that Posey would make this list, mostly because of how well he has handled the Giants' vaunted pitching staff through the years. Take Posey away -- as was the case in 2011, when the Giants missed the playoffs -- and San Francisco probably nosedives into mediocrity.

 

With Pablo Sandoval now in Boston, the Giants will rely on Posey in the middle of their order more than ever. And with a thinner pitching staff than in years past, it'll be Posey's job to navigate them through the season.

 

With Posey as their rock, the Giants project as a playoff team in 2015 (which would be their first odd-year trip to the playoffs since 2003). With Andrew Susac or Hector Sanchez instead, they'd probably hover around .500.

 

4. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays: 4.7 projected WARP

 

PECOTA projection with Longoria: 86 wins, second place AL East, second AL Wild Card

PECOTA projection without Longoria: 81-82 wins, no playoffs

 

Longoria is clearly the most surprising name on this list. He's coming off a very disappointing 2014 campaign in which he posted a .253/.320/.404 slash line -- career lows across the board. And after losing manager Joe Maddon and general manager Andrew Friedman, Tampa Bay has been written off by a good chunk of the baseball world.

 

But this much really isn't debatable: The Rays aren't going anywhere in 2015 unless they get a sizeable contribution from their three-time All-Star third baseman. Tampa Bay's offense ranked last in the American League last season, and Ben Zobrist, Yunel Escobar and Wil Myers have all departed.

 

The Rays seem to be the one team not getting any love in an up-for-grabs AL East. But they boast the division's deepest rotation, and if they can turn around their offensive woes -- which starts with Longoria -- they should be competitive. Even with last season's poor performance, the Rays have reached the playoffs in four of the past seven seasons.

 

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers: 5.2 projected WARP

 

PECOTA projection with Cabrera: 83 wins, first place AL Central

PECOTA projection without Cabrera: 77-78 wins, no playoffs

 

Cabrera may be projected to produce less than, say, Kershaw or Joey Votto, in terms of individual value. But when it comes to his overall value within the scope of a playoff race, Cabrera is without question one of the most important players in baseball this season. Given their collective age, the Tigers could be nearing an end to their reign atop the AL Central. But they should be able to protect that crown for at least one more season -- that is, if Cabrera is healthy.

 

Without Cabrera's 5.2 projected wins, the Tigers have a sub-.500 record in their forecast, which would be their first since 2008. That's a serious worry for Detroit, given Cabrera's offseason foot surgery.

 

Cabrera wasn't allowed to put weight on his right foot until December, but now he appears to be ahead of schedule at Tigers camp. That's excellent news for a team that will be relying on him perhaps more than ever before.

 

2. Robinson Cano, 2B, Mariners: 6.0 projected WARP

 

PECOTA projection with Cano: 87 wins, second place AL West, first Wild Card

PECOTA projection without Cano: 81 wins, no playoffs

 

Cano's expected output was about the same at this time a year ago. But there's a good chance he would have missed the list entirely.

 

Now, we know better when it comes to the Mariners, who missed the playoffs on the final day last season. The M's are for real, and Cano's 6.0 projected wins will be pivotal in their push to get postseason baseball back to Seattle for the first time since 2001.

 

No one is overlooking the importance of Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz within the Mariners' order, or their brilliant pitching staff, for that matter. But aside from Cano, you'd be hard pressed to find another second baseman who can put an offense on his back. Simply put, if the Mariners are going to overtake the Angels in the AL West, they need a healthy, thriving Cano.

 

1. Mike Trout, CF, Angels: 7.2 projected WARP

 

PECOTA projection with Trout: 90 wins, first place AL West

PECOTA projection without Trout: 82-83 wins, no playoffs

 

Expect anyone else? It should come as no surprise that Trout sits atop this list. Not only is the Angels' 23-year-old reigning MVP worth more wins than any other player in the game, but he plays for a team that figures to be in a dogfight all summer in the AL West. Currently, PECOTA projects the Angels to finish with the best record in the AL and three games ahead of the Mariners in the West. Take Trout out of the equation, and the Halos don't even have a Wild Card spot.

 

Of course, there's really no point in taking Trout out of the equation. He's 23, and injuries haven't been a concern in his young career. In all likelihood, Trout will once again be the game's elite superstar in 2015. Those talents, combined with his role within this summer's playoff picture, make Trout the game's most irreplaceable player this season.

[KingKat]

Basically confirms what we all thought. An injury to either Bautista or Donaldson would be devastating. On the bright side, losing Bautista (or Encarnacion for that mattter) probably hurts a little less now that Donaldson's in the fold instead of Lawrie.

[Ehjays]

AA's Most Irreplaceable Player....1. Michael Saunders LOL

[TheHurl]

Reyes is probably top 25, EE and Martin in the top 50. Good thing they are all in their mid twenties and a picture of health

[NorthOf49]

Lol Reyes... could replace that guy with a glass vase and it would make no difference... just make sure to point the opening of the vase in the direction of the plate to simulate Reyes' defense

Why? Reyes is a 3-win player and we have no alternatives.

[dineke]

I read it as MLB's most irresistible players and left disappointed.

[Deadpool]

I read it as MLB's most irresistible players and left disappointed.

 

Jake Marisnick is all 10 spots on the list.

[z3r0s]

Jake Marisnick is all 10 spots on the list.

 

Doesn't our boy Daniel Norris give him a run for his money? Maybe that's part of AA's drafting strategy

[Boxcar]

Doesn't our boy Daniel Norris give him a run for his money? Maybe that's part of AA's drafting strategy

 

 

http://torontoobserver.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/d-norris1.jpg

 

I'm gonna admit, I had no idea Daniel Norris was that dreamy.

[BTS]

Jose Reyes' career clutch rating = 1.78. 1.89 as a Blue Jay.

[RealAccountant]

Jose Reyes' career clutch rating = 1.78. 1.89 as a Blue Jay.

 

Is that good or bad

[bendera3]

Jake Marisnick is all 10 spots on the list.

 

No Matt West on your list? Think of his beautiful locks!

[KingKat]

No Matt West on your list? Think of his beautiful locks!

 

He sheered them.

[kcjaysfan]

I tend to buy into WAR accept when it comes to Reyes. The guy just finds ways to lose ball games; that s*** just doesn't always show up in WAR metrics.

 

What you're really saying is "I accept the validity of this metric except for this one player because I saw him make mistakes a few times in games his team lost, in a manner that might have directly led to said defeat. My brain, because it is a human brain and has a predilection for finding patterns, has determined that this is a trend and not noise, and concluded that it negates the value of the metric. But only in this case. For this one player. Because patterns."

[GD]

What you're really saying is "I accept the validity of this metric except for this one player because I saw him make mistakes a few times in games his team lost, in a manner that might have directly led to said defeat. My brain, because it is a human brain and has a predilection for finding patterns, has determined that this is a trend and not noise, and concluded that it negates the value of the metric. But only in this case. For this one player. Because patterns."

 

post more pls

[GD]

His primal ability to lose ball games is definitely not a skill.

 

You're right, it definitely isn't a skill, because clutchness isn't a skill. So this line of thinking is invalid.

 

You should probably think about what a skill is.

[L54]

His primal ability to lose ball games is definitely not a skill.

 

Throwing error during 10 game winning streak to lose the game.

 

-1 WAR

[L54]

You're forgetting the value of stopping winning streak momentum. Easily -0.5 more.

 

Good point. 50% chance that they win the next game too.

[G-Snarls]

Throwing error during 10 game winning streak to lose the game.

 

-1 WAR

 

I'll never forget the Jays Talk caller who thought Kawasaki was worth a lot of WAR because the team was winning so much more with him than when Reyes was playing

Edited February 27, 2015 by G-Snarls

[L54]

I'll never forget then Jays Talk caller who thought Kawasaki was worth a lot of WAR because the team was winning so much more with him than when Reyes was playing

 

That sounds like my dad. He doesn't understand advanced stats (nor does he care to) but he's a huge fan of Kawa because he's so damn likeable.

 

What I hate is when people form arguments from opinions like this. Casuals make the baseball world go round, but lots of them won't budge even when numbers are in front of them.

[Deadpool]

 

http://torontoobserver.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/d-norris1.jpg

 

I'm gonna admit, I had no idea Daniel Norris was that dreamy.

 

Until he's regularly called "Handsome Dan" (and not f***ing Dino, goddammit), he can't possibly compete.

[TheHurl]

Good point. 50% chance that they win the next game too.

 

50%...try 85%. Momentum

[TheHurl]

Until he's regularly called "Handsome Dan" (and not f***ing Dino, goddammit), he can't possibly compete.

 

Dreamy Devout Dan

[Boxcar]

I like Dreamboat Dan. That works.

[TheHurl]

I like Dreamboat Dan. That works.

 

While I agree that it's the perfect nickname, I must make one Heart (the band and the verb) based change and make it Dreamboat Danny. The song could have been written for him.

 

Heading out this morning into the sun

Riding on the diamond waves, little darlin' one

 

Deadpool, I'll rewrite the lyrics, get your band to preform.

[KingKat]

While I agree that it's the perfect nickname, I must make one Heart (the band and the verb) based change and make it Dreamboat Danny. The song could have been written for him.

 

Heading out this morning into the sun

Riding on the diamond waves, little darlin' one

 

Deadpool, I'll rewrite the lyrics, get your band to preform.

 

This is a slideshow montage waiting to happen.

[TheHurl]

This is a slideshow montage waiting to happen.

 

So perfect with everything but the chorus

 

Heading out this morning into the sun

Riding on the diamond waves, little darlin' one

 

Warm wind caress her

Her lover it seems

Oh, Annie

Dreamboat Annie my little ship of dreams

 

Going down the city sidewalk alone in the crowd

No one knows the lonely one whose head's in the clouds

 

Sad faces painted over with those magazine smiles

Heading out to somewhere won't be back for a while