Aaron Sanchez Reality Check Thread

[tercet]

ace potential, ace calibre pitches

 

no one has called him an ace

 

you, on the other hand, have s*** on your face

 

Seriously..?? lol

[Gorlak]

He has an ace's fastball, that's about it. Even if he cuts the walks down he is likely a number 3 tops at this point, needs a swing and miss offspeed pitch he can throw for strikes to be anything better.

[GD]

Concede a W, concede a shut-out. These are facts that you cannot find peripheral stats to deny.

 

Aaand we've hit pitcher wins.

[tercet]

Are people trolling me or really think Sanchez is anything beside a terrible starter?

[nmrch]

He has an ace's fastball, that's about it. Even if he cuts the walks down he is likely a number 3 tops at this point, needs a swing and miss offspeed pitch he can throw for strikes to be anything better.

 

You realize high velocity(and even movement for that matter) =/= "ace's fastball". What matters is command and if you're missing bats with it, are we seriously gonna argue that he's doing either of those things properly. Oh and the velocity isn't even that impressive btw but just wanted to give you that one to make a bigger point.

 

Its really strange that people can't see it and this is somehow controversial, the Sanchez experiment will either end up with him in the bullpen or he won't even be good enough for that. There are no other possibilities.

[nmrch]

Are people trolling me or really think Sanchez is anything beside a terrible starter?

 

This was my first time looking at this thread and i thought it was just a bunch of Sanchez skeptics gloating but its the other way around and people are actually debating this and throwing around words like "ace potential". It is absurd and this forum was supposed to be where the most sophisticated fans are, its mind boggling really.

[jays4life19]

This was my first time looking at this thread and i thought it was just a bunch of Sanchez skeptics gloating but its the other way around and people are actually debating this and throwing around words like "ace potential". It is absurd and this forum was supposed to be where the most sophisticated fans are, its mind boggling really.

 

You probably should never open a GDT.

[Jimcanuck]

You realize high velocity(and even movement for that matter) =/= "ace's fastball". What matters is command and if you're missing bats with it, are we seriously gonna argue that he's doing either of those things properly. Oh and the velocity isn't even that impressive btw but just wanted to give you that one to make a bigger point.

 

Its really strange that people can't see it and this is somehow controversial, the Sanchez experiment will either end up with him in the bullpen or he won't even be good enough for that. There are no other possibilities.

 

you shouldnt have a fixed position when it comes to a 22 yr old with a live arm

 

its just as possible that sanchez gains control and confidence with each start and the k/9 creeps down below 4. he's has 3 starts with < 3 BB.

[Nafro]

Aaand we've hit pitcher wins.

 

Nope Team Wins and a Team shut-out. It's kind of what a baseball team tries to accomplish every game they play. That being said, I will give some credit to the pitcher who threw 7+ of those shut out innings.

[Governator]

Yep Sanchez is an ace, a babip of 0.056 with more walks then strikeouts.

 

He was actually a last ditch effort for a 5th starter this season and so far he's improved with every start. A couple of walks he got f***ed over on tonight and he shouldn't have pitched the 8th when he was clearly tired and gave up two more before being pulled.

[GD]

sigh

[Caper]

Sanchez was fine tonight. He was predicted to be a disaster and he has not been. He's been fine.

[KingKat]

Sanchez was fine tonight. He was predicted to be a disaster and he has not been. He's been fine.

 

There's a fair amount of good fortune involved though.

[GD]

Aaron Sanchez 5 BB 3 SO

 

Sportsnet "Shi Davidi: Sanchez in total command"

[dineke]

What's Sanchez's xCrip tonight?

[Nafro]

Are people trolling me or really think Sanchez is anything beside a terrible starter?

 

I don't think he's terrible. I don't think he will last as a starter if his walk rate stays where it is either

[tercet]

This was my first time looking at this thread and i thought it was just a bunch of Sanchez skeptics gloating but its the other way around and people are actually debating this and throwing around words like "ace potential". It is absurd and this forum was supposed to be where the most sophisticated fans are, its mind boggling really.

 

Some guys like Jimcanuck, and krylian don't understand baseball.

 

No pitcher in the history of baseball( I could be wrong) has ever succeeded with the peripherals that Sanchez has right now. He is unbelievably lucky, and this probably wont keep up.

[Jimcanuck]

looking at Sanchez peers - starters aged 21 -23 with more than 20 IP

 

Archie Bradley - 4.95 BB/9

Daniel Norris - 4.63 BB/9

Carlos Martinez - 4.25 BB/9

Taijuan Walker - 4.76 BB/9

Aaron Sanchez - 7.11 BB/9

 

Yes the BB/9 is on the high side but not abnormally so compared to his peers. He's been squeezed by the ump the last two games. He's had 3 games with 3 BB or less.

 

Some of you need to cut him some slack.

[Gorlak]

You realize high velocity(and even movement for that matter) =/= "ace's fastball". What matters is command and if you're missing bats with it, are we seriously gonna argue that he's doing either of those things properly. Oh and the velocity isn't even that impressive btw but just wanted to give you that one to make a bigger point.

 

Its really strange that people can't see it and this is somehow controversial, the Sanchez experiment will either end up with him in the bullpen or he won't even be good enough for that. There are no other possibilities.

 

Almost all aces have a 95 mph fastball stock, that's not a coincidence. Command is more important, but velocity is usually the difference between a 3 and 1. Also the bar for 5th starter is pretty low.

[tercet]

I don't think he's terrible. I don't think he will last as a starter if his walk rate stays where it is either

 

Like i've said multiple times in this thread, Sanchez might be a good starter in 2016/17, but he will more then likely be terrible this year and next year as a starter.

 

By some miracle he has managed to have a 3.5~ era this year despite peripherals that including 7 bb/9 and more walks per strikeouts. No pitcher in the history of baseball has succeeded long term with peripherals like that. He will probably not continue to be this lucky.

[Gorlak]

Some guys like Jimcanuck, and krylian don't understand baseball.

 

No pitcher in the history of baseball( I could be wrong) has ever succeeded with the peripherals that Sanchez has right now. He is unbelievably lucky, and this probably wont keep up.

 

I was a believer in the high walk/low hits and high groundball combo pre season, But he has gone so far to the extreme that it's not possible to be successful. I am not really a believer anymore, all I can cling to is SSS.

[Nafro]

looking at Sanchez peers - starters aged 21 -23 with more than 20 IP

 

Archie Bradley - 4.95 BB/9

Daniel Norris - 4.63 BB/9

Carlos Martinez - 4.25 BB/9

Taijuan Walker - 4.76 BB/9

Aaron Sanchez - 7.11 BB/9

 

Yes the BB/9 is on the high side but not abnormally so compared to his peers. He's been squeezed by the ump the last two games. He's had 3 games with 3 BB or less.

 

Some of you need to cut him some slack.

 

Whoa I'm a fan of Sanchez and hope he succeeds for us. But I have to state that did not help your argument. Every one of those pitchers BB/9 has a 4 in front of it. That's a 7 in front of his. That's abnormal and needs to come back to 3.5-4 or ideally much less, if he is going to be a decent starter

[Jimcanuck]

Some guys like Jimcanuck, and krylian don't understand baseball.

 

No pitcher in the history of baseball( I could be wrong) has ever succeeded with the peripherals that Sanchez has right now. He is unbelievably lucky, and this probably wont keep up.

 

He needs to improve, but he's 22. The frontline starter potential is clearly there. In the history of baseball, there have been gazillion pitchers with control problems at age 22 that had long productive careers as a starting pitcher.

 

There's a very good chance the peripherals you see today will be much improved a year from now.

[tercet]

I was a believer in the high walk/low hits and high groundball combo pre season, But he has gone so far to the extreme that it's not possible to be successful. I am not really a believer anymore, all I can cling to is SSS.

 

Thank you for being reasonable unlike jimcanuck, krylian and others

[tercet]

He needs to improve, but he's 22. The frontline starter potential is clearly there. In the history of baseball, there have been gazillion pitchers with control problems at age 22 that had long productive careers as a starting pitcher.

 

There's a very good chance the peripherals you see today will be much improved a year from now.

 

You are making a fool out of yourself the most you post, please stop posting.

[Nafro]

So in reality hes kind of good?

 

Exactly and in reality...he's been kind of bad! Both statements are correct.

[Jimcanuck]

That's abnormal and needs to come back to 3.5-4 or ideally much less, if he is going to be a decent starter

 

It's SSS and he's been squeezed by the umps. Let's see what happens.

 

Also, Randy Johnson had a season with 6.79 BB/9 and amassed 2.8 WAR.

[tercet]

So in reality hes kind of good?

 

 

Yes hes a good pitcher, who is unbelievably lucky. Sustainable? Probably not.

[Governator]

Like i've said multiple times in this thread, Sanchez might be a good starter in 2016/17, but he will more then likely be terrible this year and next year as a starter.

 

By some miracle he has managed to have a 3.5~ era this year despite peripherals that including 7 bb/9 and more walks per strikeouts. No pitcher in the history of baseball has succeeded long term with peripherals like that. He will probably not continue to be this lucky.

 

He will also not continue to be this bad considering his bb/9 is sitting far above his career line. Yes his .239 season babip is low but its also not a fool proof stat to tell a whole story. As a ground ball pitcher he's going to give up his share of hits but he's consistently produced weak contact that babip doesn't account for. You might not be able to control where a ball goes but if it doesn't leave the infield the odds tip in your favour.

[Jimcanuck]

You are making a fool out of yourself the most you post, please stop posting.

 

you must feel pretty stupid with your predictions being wrong..... every f***ing time