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Which wild card front office do you most believe in?  

97 members have voted

  1. 1. Which wild card front office do you most believe in?

    • Houston Astros (led by Jeff Luhnow)
      10
    • New York Yankees (led by Brian Cashman)
      4
    • Chicago Cubs (led by Theo & Jed)
      68
    • Pittsburgh Pirates (led by Neal Huntington)
      15

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glory Vancouver Canadians

glory

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Considering the Braves have traded Heyward and Simmons within one year, it seems pretty clear that they don't value defense that much. Or more likely they don't want to pay for defense.
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Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
I was going to play devil's advocate here and argue something along the lines that you get a truer measure of value from someone who provides value on offense than from someone who mostly provides it on defense since D is noisy as hell but Aybar's offensive value is a lot murkier than I first realized. He's coming off a dreadful season and doesn't project very well at all. I don't hate the thought process here but the valuations on basically everyone involved seem really, really off.

 

I'm not even sure that defense is noisier or more variant than offense. People just don't trust the measures as much - which is a different argument.

 

You can find outlier defensive seasons in UZR just as easily as you can find outlier offensive seasons in wRC+.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Considering the Braves have traded Heyward and Simmons within one year, it seems pretty clear that they don't value defense that much. Or more likely they don't want to pay for defense.

 

Well the Heyward trade kind of had to happen if they weren't going to have the money to extend him.

 

But the Markakis signing helps your point.

 

Who really knows what the f*** they are or aren't thinking. Clearly, objectively, they are making stupid decisions.

KingKat All-Star

KingKat

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

You can find outlier defensive seasons in UZR just as easily as you can find outlier offensive seasons in wRC+.

 

I don't subscribe to the theory that defensive value is poorly measured because of outliers and variances. I absolutely do believe in good and bad defensive seasons. Players take stuff to the field, they are not always at their best, physically or emotionally and s*** happens on both sides of the ball. My not at all well researched impression though is that a lot of noises comes pretty early in the process at the data collection level. I could be very wrong though. I'm admitedly well out of my depth.

 

I know that you have argued that the difference between Trout and Donaldson in WAR this year might just be noise but I didn't realize that you assumed an even distribution of noise. I guess I just assumed it was mostly from defense and positional adjustment.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
I know that you have argued that the difference between Trout and Donaldson in WAR this year might just be noise but I didn't realize that you assumed an even distribution of noise. I guess I just assumed it was mostly from defense and positional adjustment.

 

Have I? I think when Donaldson was ahead of Trout I would have taken the position that Trout is still better.

 

But looking at their seasons right now, how they ended up, everything seems basically true talent. Trout slightly more talented all things considered. Trout is an average CF and he hit to his talent almost exactly. Donaldson is a plus 3B who probably had a positive noisy offensive season that won't be repeated. Trout still edged him in WAR.

KingKat All-Star

KingKat

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Have I?

 

Maybe not. I know some people on this board have said that they figured the difference between Donaldson and Trout in WAR this year could easily just be noise but I may have just assumed you agreed with that view when you never actually stated such a thing. I guess your argument for Donaldson as MVP was more about Donaldson's edge in context dependent stats and didn't imply that the difference in WAR was not true.

Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Maybe not. I know some people on this board have said that they figured the difference between Donaldson and Trout in WAR this year could easily just be noise but I may have just assumed you agreed with that view when you never actually stated such a thing. I guess your argument for Donaldson as MVP was more about Donaldson's edge in context dependent stats and didn't imply that the difference in WAR was not true.

 

There is measurement noise and physical noise

 

measurement noise - the accuracy of the measurement

physical noise - the variation of the true value from it's long term mean

 

I think most people were arguing that the difference between Donaldson and Trout 2015 could be measurement noise, in defense, park factors, positional adjustment, baserunning, etc.

 

In terms of physical noise... most people realize Donaldson's season was positive noise. Donaldson's season was above his long term mean. Trout's was right at his long term mean.

Dr. Dinger GOAT

Dr. Dinger

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
TaiWalker for Pillar is idiota

 

They each just played their first full season and Pillar doubled him in WAR. Also, Harold Reynolds agrees with you, so you should probably re-evaluate your entire life.

Stangstag Toronto Blue Jays

Stangstag

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
For anyone who bothered, is this basically just speculation from an established moron?

 

Yeah it was all his own opinion. The Mariners are apparently looking for a CF and have checked in on Marisnick and Gomez. Then Morosi started saying "maybe the jays could trade Pillar blahblahblah".

 

He used alot of "ifs" and "maybes"

CJ-Freeway FCL Blue Jays

CJ-Freeway

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
They each just played their first full season and Pillar doubled him in WAR. Also, Harold Reynolds agrees with you, so you should probably re-evaluate your entire life.

 

I also agreed with Reynolds. Fml.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Pretty sweet article on Jordan Zimmerman (via Jays Journal)

 

http://jaysjournal.com/2015/11/16/blue-jays-free-agent-target-jordan-zimmermann/

 

He's almost one of the last guys that I would target. In a deep FA pitching market, why pay near Ace money for a #2?

 

Iwakuma and Lacker are similarly talented and will cost much, much less overall.

 

Samardzija is basically as good as Zimmerman and might cost a lot less as well.

 

And price matters because ideally Toronto still needs two SP. Going into the season with Hutch as the #6 should be the goal.

Sammy225 FCL Blue Jays

Sammy225

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Seems like a nice deal for Seattle.

 

How weird that sounds...

 

Just wait...... Lets see what the other pieces involved are lol.... Seems too good for the M's

Boxcar All-Star

Boxcar

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Just wait...... Lets see what the other pieces involved are lol.... Seems too good for the M's

 

Texas pretty obviously soured pretty hard on Martin, its not too unbelievable.

Sammy225 FCL Blue Jays

Sammy225

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Texas pretty obviously soured pretty hard on Martin, its not too unbelievable.

 

Surprised Andrus is not on a one way bus somewhere yet after game 7

Brownie19 New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Brownie19

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
so no Pillar

 

Funny thing is, the 2013 and 2014 version of Martin is probably exactly what we should expect from Pillar moving forward. In 2015 Martin fetches a middle reliever (who's basically Delabar) and people getting paid to follow baseball are suggesting TiaWalker for Pillar...

 

Craziness.

Nafro First Round Pick

Nafro

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Surprised Andrus is not on a one way bus somewhere yet after game 7

 

If Profar ends up staying healthy and able to play shortstop...he may be.

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