Around Baseball 2015

[Laika]

Watching the A's game and wondering if anyone can answer this question.

 

Butler on first, Lawrie singles to CF. Martin takes a good route and stops Billy Butler from going 1st to 3rd. Butler ran the bases well, rounding aggressively and holding up when he realized Martin had made a strong throw that probably throws him out.

 

What I'm wondering is if an instance like this is viewed as positive baserunning on Fangraphs, rather than neutral because there never was a play?

 

BsR is wSB + wGDP + UBR. The first two are self explanatory.

 

In UBR a baserunner basically gets credit for the run value of what resulted vs. the average weighted run value of all baserunners in that situation (on 1B, single to CF with X outs).

 

So staying at 2B is an event within the calculation of the "average weighted run value of all baserunners in that situation".

So are advancing to 3B, and getting thrown out at 3B.

 

I'm guessing that Butler holding at 2B would be very slightly negative but I'm not sure. Could basically be a 'zero' play. It's not neutral because there was no action, though.

[L54]

BsR is wSB + wGDP + UBR. The first two are self explanatory.

 

In UBR a baserunner basically gets credit for the run value of what resulted vs. the average weighted run value of all baserunners in that situation (on 1B, single to CF with X outs).

 

So staying at 2B is an event within the calculation of the "average weighted run value of all baserunners in that situation".

So are advancing to 3B, and getting thrown out at 3B.

 

I'm guessing that Butler holding at 2B would be very slightly negative but I'm not sure. Could basically be a 'zero' play. It's not neutral because there was no action, though.

 

Thanks. This is what I was looking for.

[Laika]

So, hypothetically, in Butler's situation of being on first w/ one out when a line single goes to CF:

 

a) Result = 1st and 2nd, 1 out = happens 50% of time = RE of 0.90

Result = 1st and 3rd, 1 out = happens 25% of time = RE of 1.20

c) Result = 1st, 2 out (runner thrown out at 3rd) = happens 25% of time = RE 0.20

 

Average weighted RE is 0.80

 

If Billy does a) then he gets +0.10 for that (raised RE a tiny bit by parking his fat ass)

If Billy does c) then he gets -0.60 for that (nuked RE by being a dummy)

And of course Billy never does B cuz Country Breakfast, but if Billy Hamilton did it then he'd get a +0.40.

 

Frequencies and Run Expectancies are made up

[TwistedLogic]

What the f*** is "#THIS"?

[RealAccountant]

Rios and Snider tied for the batting title :-(

[Sammy225]

That Sonny Gray looks like a Lyon Tamer anchor for years to come....

[Sammy225]

I know that this is a very hypothetical question but could be realistic. IF Pillar continues his excellent play from what he was doing in Spring Training and this game for the next 2 weeks and Saunders is ready to come back, do you play Saunders at DH just thinking that Pillar may have better range in the outfield????

[TRM]

I know that this is a very hypothetical question but could be realistic. IF Pillar continues his excellent play from what he was doing in Spring Training and this game for the next 2 weeks and Saunders is ready to come back, do you play Saunders at DH just thinking that Pillar may have better range in the outfield????

 

Better to keep EE DH and Smoak at 1st probably. Platoon Saunders and Pillar to ease Saunders back in, and then have Pillar spell Saunders and Smoak against lefties over the course of the season.

[G-Snarls]

Better to keep EE DH and Smoak at 1st probably. Platoon Saunders and Pillar to ease Saunders back in, and then have Pillar spell Saunders and Smoak against lefties over the course of the season.

 

Ideal solution, agree 100%

 

When Saunders is back, Navarro becomes even more unnecessary

[TRM]

DFA Navarro.

[Laika]

Better to keep EE DH and Smoak at 1st probably. Platoon Saunders and Pillar to ease Saunders back in, and then have Pillar spell Saunders and Smoak against lefties over the course of the season.

 

Pillar can get some CF time against LHP too, maybe. I think Pompey's swing looks a bit better from the left side.

 

Shouldn't be a big problem getting Pillar playing time. It would be nice to have him purely as a reserve though, because I think he's a decent one.

[TRM]

Pillar as the 4th OF is a good thing to have happening. Honestly a bench of Pillar covering the OF, Tolleson doing MI, Valencia at the Corners and Navarro backing up at catcher isn't THAT bad. Obviously Tolleson isn't a great SS option, and Navarro is Navarro, but we could be doing worse.

[HERPDERP]

Pillar is a great fourth OF option. Good speed, good defense. His bat is good enough to be a starter on an NL team.

 

He's pretty much a white Rajai.

[King]

Pillar is a great fourth OF option. Good speed, good defense. His bat is good enough to be a starter on an NL team.

 

He's pretty much a white Rajai.

 

Pillar could be good. You forgot to mention his baserunning too. If he can get his bat going this season, look out.

[ScientificReason]

Pillar is a great fourth OF option. Good speed, good defense. His bat is good enough to be a starter on an NL team.

 

He's pretty much a white Rajai.

 

He has a lot more potential with his bat then Rajai imo.

[bendera3]

Pillar could be good. You forgot to mention his baserunning too. If he can get his bat going this season, look out.

 

I hope Pillar is for real. When was the last time we had a good 4th outfielder that can hit at a decent clip and you could use as a defensive replacement (not Davis).

[Sammy225]

The only thing i am thinking is that Pillar has been ripping the cover off the ball most of spring and yesterday. If he continues this i don't think it is as simple as saying your our 4th outfielder now and not give him steady at bats. If Pompey is up he should be playing everyday or you could risk hurting his development and Saunders is somewhat of an unknown at this point with injury troubles.

 

He has been a steady hitter all the way through the minors and i don't think it is that unlikely that after only 150ish PAs against big league pitching he is starting to figure it out. I just don't think it is as cut and dry as appointing him the 4th outfielder if he keeps having good At Bats and playing Solid D.

[Boxcar]

I hope Pillar is for real. When was the last time we had a good 4th outfielder that can hit at a decent clip and you could use as a defensive replacement (not Davis).

 

Probably Rajai Davis.

[Angrioter]

I hope Pillar is for real. When was the last time we had a good 4th outfielder that can hit at a decent clip and you could use as a defensive replacement (not Davis).

 

Reed Johnson?

[Laika]

I hope Pillar is for real. When was the last time we had a good 4th outfielder that can hit at a decent clip and you could use as a defensive replacement (not Davis).

 

Corey Patterson

Fred Lewis

 

classic Blue Jays for the millennial fan base

[BTS]

According to Brooks baseball:

 

Tanaka average FB velo in 2014 = 92.74 mph

Tanaka's average FB velo last night = 92.63 mph

 

Pat and Buck were bordering on unprofessional talking about how he lost 4-5 mph on his fastball from last year. He wants to throw fewer 4-seamers this year because his 4-seamer got crushed last year. It remains to be seen whether or not he'll be able to effectively set up his splitter while doing this, but the broadcast last night was bush league.

[Laika]

According to Brooks baseball:

 

Tanaka average FB velo in 2014 = 92.74 mph

Tanaka's average FB velo last night = 92.63 mph

 

Pat and Buck were bordering on unprofessional talking about how he lost 4-5 mph on his fastball from last year. He wants to throw fewer 4-seamers this year because his 4-seamer got crushed last year. It remains to be seen whether or not he'll be able to effectively set up his splitter while doing this, but the broadcast last night was bush league.

 

To be fair, it's basically everybody in the media. New York is rattled because of all his 90mph two seamers.

[KingKat]

According to Brooks baseball:

 

Tanaka average FB velo in 2014 = 92.74 mph

Tanaka's average FB velo last night = 92.63 mph

 

Pat and Buck were bordering on unprofessional talking about how he lost 4-5 mph on his fastball from last year. He wants to throw fewer 4-seamers this year because his 4-seamer got crushed last year. It remains to be seen whether or not he'll be able to effectively set up his splitter while doing this, but the broadcast last night was bush league.

 

I really didn't think Tanaka was that bad yesterday. A little more luck for Tanaka and little less luck for Hutch and it seems to me like the lines could have easily been reversed.

[Laika]

http://andrewstoeten.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/dailynewscover.jpg

[BTS]

http://andrewstoeten.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/dailynewscover.jpg

 

Wow, speaking of unprofessional...

[ScientificReason]

I really didn't think Tanaka was that bad yesterday. A little more luck for Tanaka and little less luck for Hutch and it seems to me like the lines could have easily been reversed.

 

totally disagree, he looked bad and off. Only reason he looked good first 2 innings was the jays kept chasing pitches not near the zone, as soon as they adjusted he looked bad. He barely threw any fastballs and when he did they were very hittable most of the time i/e EE's HR, Joey bats just missed a meat ball the at bat prior.

[Angrioter]

According to Brooks baseball:

 

Tanaka average FB velo in 2014 = 92.74 mph

Tanaka's average FB velo last night = 92.63 mph

 

Pat and Buck were bordering on unprofessional talking about how he lost 4-5 mph on his fastball from last year. He wants to throw fewer 4-seamers this year because his 4-seamer got crushed last year. It remains to be seen whether or not he'll be able to effectively set up his splitter while doing this, but the broadcast last night was bush league.

 

Thanks. I love you my Tanaka's brother.

I own him in 2 leagues.

[BTS]

I really didn't think Tanaka was that bad yesterday. A little more luck for Tanaka and little less luck for Hutch and it seems to me like the lines could have easily been reversed.

 

I think his stuff looked fine, and he'll probably be very successful throwing it as long as his UCL stays healthy. Full credit to the Jays from me. If Pillar and Travis are taking good AB's, this is an incredibly tough lineup 1-9.

[CHRIS]

Fred Lewis

 

I have never seen a major leaguer as lost in CF as Fred Lewis when he had to fill in for a few games. It was like he lost total equilibrium and control of his body when he stood 30 steps left of where he usually stood. He basically moved like a blind, crippled anteater out there.

[Laika]

Only real problem I saw with Tanaka yesterday was that he wasn't changing the eye-level of the Toronto hitters at all. EVERYTHING was lower third or beneath the zone.

 

2014:

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&player=547888&startDate=01/01/2014&endDate=01/01/2015&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

Yesterday:

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&player=547888&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1