Are the Jays going for it or not? Please say this isn't another year stuck in limbo..

[L54]

Please show me I ever said get Shields in any of my posts. Aren't pitchers more stable regression wise as they enter there 30's?

 

Because Shields was the player being discussed originally. That's why I used him.

 

I don't know enough to say for sure whether pitchers or hitters regress more quickly, but I'd have to think it's fairly constant, if not in the advantage of hitters. A lot of miles on some arms once they hit their 30's.

[Pulk_Pull]

Brilliant, so to make Baloo happy, we simply have to add 4.0 WAR of potential over the next 3 months (included in that 4.0 would be whatever Navarro returns). Given we have 'spots' open in the BP, 2B, OF, and potentially as depth SP, this shouldn't be too difficult.

 

Stock up AA! it doesn't matter if we have spots open for them or if they are pre-disposed to injury, Baloo will take their potential value all the same!

 

 

The way some people are talking in this thread, it's almost as if no one else has any question marks...

[z3r0s]

Its not like you can just add up WAR for the players in and out, you need to look at what you gain/lose at each position. Using steamers projections

 

C - +Martin - Navarro (+3.1 WAR) (and we haven't added anything for whoever he trades Navarro for)

1B- +Smoak - Lind (-0.4 WAR)

2B- hard to say

SS- no change

3B- +Donaldson - Lawrie (+1.8 WAR) (if Lawrie stays healthy)

LF- +Saundeers - Melky (0 WAR)

CF- +Pompey - Rasmus (-1.2 WAR). Pillar is projected at 1.2 WAR as well, but not sure how much he will play (hopefully not much in CF)

RF- no change

 

On the pitching side its harder to compare because we lost so many RP's and we don't know who will be replacing them, but none of Janssen, Graveman, or Nolin projected for much value and RP's are uber volatile anyway unless they are elite (none of those guys). Estrada in, but also little projection.

 

We lose JP Happ (1.2 WAR) but plunk in Norris or Sanchez. We also haven't factored in pitch framing wins that will show up in the pitchers WAR.

 

In adding wins, AA has also cleared payroll space which I truly hope he is in a position to spend.

[baloojayz]

...and all you need is MLB to expand the roster size to 27 to make your example work. I'm also having a hard time believing one can expect a combined 12.3 WAR from Lawrie, Rasmus and Morrow going forward in 2015 by cherry picking their 2012 and 2013 seasons and keep a straight face while doing it.

 

Brilliant, so to make Baloo happy, we simply have to add 4.0 WAR of potential over the next 3 months (included in that 4.0 would be whatever Navarro returns). Given we have 'spots' open in the BP, 2B, OF, and potentially as depth SP, this shouldn't be too difficult.

 

Stock up AA! it doesn't matter if we have spots open for them or if they are pre-disposed to injury, Baloo will take their potential value all the same!

 

 

Given the way some people are talking in this thread, it's almost as if no one else has any question marks...

 

I know potential WAR looks like cherry picking, but I feel if you are not going to account for possible regression and injuries (to guys like Stroman, Bautista, Donaldson) and are just expecting them to produce at their 2014 clip, it's one and the same. Players rebound from down years and disappoint after big years as well.

[ScientificReason]

83 give or take 2-3 wins.

 

I agree here, 85 max.

[Olerud363]

Hey guys like everyone else I've loved all the moves AA has made this off season but the momentum seems to have come to a grounding halt. Not just because moves aren't being made at the same fap worthy pace but because the mood has changed in multiple articles I've read about the Jays not having as much budget left to work with as originally believed. Sure there's a ton of time left to make moves and I get the crying poor smokescreen to the other GM's & Agents so I'm still optimistic, but yet I still can't get that knot out of my stomach or shake the feeling of impending limbo like I had all of last year.

 

Last year I had a feeling of perpetual frustration due to the Jays not making moves in the off season (which I however understood coming off the prior clusterf*** of a season). Like most people I was irritated they didn't sign Santana along with hearing the pathetic clubhouse salary defferal articles but I understood their position and gave management the benefit of the doubt, but what I couldn't forgive or understand was when the Jays had a tenuous grip on the wildcard and were still up 3 games at the AS break the fans, media, and even the players were pleading to management for reinforcements to no avail. It's hard to say now what would've came of it but it really felt like at the time we just needed a decent piece or two to capitalize on the momentum we'd built and make that final push to the playoffs. I remember all the Rogers is cheap and AA is a smokeblower backlash on here and for the most part I agreed, why not drop an extra 10-15mil and seize the momentum and cash in on the playoff ratings and drive. I mean ultimately if they failed the team could just shed payroll in the off season, personally I think most saw it as a lost opportunity.

 

Now Bautista, EE, Reyes, Dickey, etc. are a year older and the window will be even tighter to go all in. AA came out like gangbusters and signed Martin and traded for Donaldson which indicated they might be maximizing this Bautista/EE window but not so fast, they trade for Saunders and pass on Melky which I think is a great cost saving move to spread out the salary and plug some holes but a myriad of useful free agents get signed and pass us by and now out come all the articles about budget restrictions. I'd hate to think I'm a mark for this line of thought but who knows maybe I am after being snakebit so hard last year, all I know is if we're in let's go for it and if we're not let's tear it down because having an identity crisis like last year is the absolute worst place you can be.

 

It would be great to add a few more "projected wins". But how?? Keep in mind that a lot of the available moves don't add projected wins.

 

Melky instead of Saunders?? Advanced Stats don't like Melky's defense.

 

Lorie instead of Travis?? From what I have heard the projection systems like Travis. Keep in mind Travis is a .320 minor league hitter with a low k rate. There are not a lot of .320 hitters in the minors.

 

So maybe there is also some advanced analysis going on in the background. The available moves just add to payroll and don't add to much to the win total.

[baloojayz]

Its not like you can just add up WAR for the players in and out, you need to look at what you gain/lose at each position. Using steamers projections

 

C - +Martin - Navarro (+3.1 WAR) (and we haven't added anything for whoever he trades Navarro for)

1B- +Smoak - Lind (-0.4 WAR)

2B- hard to say

SS- no change

3B- +Donaldson - Lawrie (+1.8 WAR) (if Lawrie stays healthy)

LF- +Saundeers - Melky (0 WAR)

CF- +Pompey - Rasmus (-1.2 WAR). Pillar is projected at 1.2 WAR as well, but not sure how much he will play (hopefully not much in CF)

RF- no change

 

On the pitching side its harder to compare because we lost so many RP's and we don't know who will be replacing them, but none of Janssen, Graveman, or Nolin projected for much value and RP's are uber volatile anyway unless they are elite (none of those guys). Estrada in, but also little projection.

 

We lose JP Happ (1.2 WAR) but plunk in Norris or Sanchez. We also haven't factored in pitch framing wins that will show up in the pitchers WAR.

 

In adding wins, AA has also cleared payroll space which I truly hope he is in a position to spend.

 

That's the key here, b/c outside of that we are only ~2 wins better and we haven't taken into consideration that Bautista could damage his wrist again, Edwin could pull something and be out longer, Donaldson could flop (relatively...4war instead of the 7 or so he posted), and Stroman or Hutch could blow out their young arms.

[z3r0s]

That's the key here, b/c outside of that we are only ~2 wins better and we haven't taken into consideration that Bautista could damage his wrist again, Edwin could pull something and be out longer, Donaldson could flop (relatively...4war instead of the 7 or so he posted), and Stroman or Hutch could blow out their young arms.

 

You could do the injury thing with any club. I think the above shows we are at least likely better than 2 wins better and that doesn't take into account getting something better out of 2b (be it Travis or an addition), any pitch framing wins, any value from trading Navarro, any value out of our CF, any value from our 5th starter (who could be better than Happ if its Norris).

[baloojayz]

It would be great to add a few more "projected wins". But how?? Keep in mind that a lot of the available moves don't add projected wins.

 

Melky instead of Saunders?? Advanced Stats don't like Melky's defense.

 

Lorie instead of Travis?? From what I have heard the projection systems like Travis. Keep in mind Travis is a .320 minor league hitter with a low k rate. There are not a lot of .320 hitters in the minors.

 

So maybe there is also some advanced analysis going on in the background. The available moves just add to payroll and don't add to much to the win total.

 

Naw we could have instead signed Headley and moved Lawrie to second, gone through with the Saunders for Melky replacement to pick up the 1st, and then swung a trade for a #1-2 SP with Baretto, Nolin, Graveman, and Sanchez as pieces.

[baloojayz]

You could do the injury thing with any club. I think the above shows we are at least likely better than 2 wins better and that doesn't take into account getting something better out of 2b (be it Travis or an addition), any pitch framing wins, any value from trading Navarro, any value out of our CF, any value from our 5th starter (who could be better than Happ if its Norris).

 

Yeah you got me. I just feel with all of the money we "saved" and are going to save with Romero and Beuhrle gone, we can afford one semi-bad big SP contract to add 4-5 WAR on top of that you know? Then all these random contributions from 2B, CF and 5th starter/BP would be a huge bonus instead of desperately expected.

[L54]

That's the key here, b/c outside of that we are only ~2 wins better and we haven't taken into consideration that Bautista could damage his wrist again, Edwin could pull something and be out longer, Donaldson could flop (relatively...4war instead of the 7 or so he posted), and Stroman or Hutch could blow out their young arms.

 

Bautista and Edwin could put up .380 OBP's, Donaldson could put up 6 WAR, Stroman could develop into an ace, Hutch could take a big step forward.

 

See how there are two sides to this coin?

 

Edit: Late to the party I see.

[z3r0s]

Yeah you got me. I just feel with all of the money we "saved" and are going to save with Romero and Beuhrle gone, we can afford one semi-bad big SP contract to add 4-5 WAR on top of that you know? Then all these random contributions from 2B, CF and 5th starter/BP would be a huge bonus instead of desperately expected.

 

I don't even oppose picking up a decent pitcher (although I don't think I could support getting Scherzer for 6+ years). It would give us a big bonus over what Happ would provide, give us depth and let Norris develop a bit more.

 

I was just arguing that we are a substantially better club with the OS moves.

[TheHurl]

I love to do this each year...rank the seriousness of the year ending injuries for the Jays (for me there are no pitchers in the top 5).

 

1.Donaldson

2. Martin

3. Reyes

4. Bautista

5. EE

 

All are currently a huge drop off to the replacement. Only reason I rank Reyes ahead of Bautista is that OF are often found mid-season. If we trade Navarro I put Martin at number 1.

[xposbrad]

Naw we could have instead signed Headley and moved Lawrie to second, gone through with the Saunders for Melky replacement to pick up the 1st, and then swung a trade for a #1-2 SP with Baretto, Nolin, Graveman, and Sanchez as pieces.

 

I would have gone that route as well. Headley is good value, and that fixes the 2b problem as well. I also would have targeted a SP with that package because I'm sorry if I don't have faith in a 35 year old Buerhle and a 40 year old Dickey being the top end of your rotation.

[Sammy225]

Naw we could have instead signed Headley and moved Lawrie to second, gone through with the Saunders for Melky replacement to pick up the 1st, and then swung a trade for a #1-2 SP with Baretto, Nolin, Graveman, and Sanchez as pieces.

 

Everybody was pretty certain that Headley was going to sign with the Yankees so that option probably not even an option. Its easy to say should have done this and that but all teams have players that are not options for them. It was reported that Melky did not want to go to the West Coast which might have had some reason the M's did not get him and he went to Chicago.

 

You got to take what is given to you to upgrade your team. Just because someone is a free agent does not mean you can sign him. The way I see it is we have upgraded the team by 4-5 wins i would say so far and its not even xmas yet and by saving money.

[z3r0s]

I would have gone that route as well. Headley is good value, and that fixes the 2b problem as well. I also would have targeted a SP with that package because I'm sorry if I don't have faith in a 35 year old Buerhle and a 40 year old Dickey being the top end of your rotation.

 

They aren't tho... Stroman and Hutchison are.

 

Dickey and MB are what they are, a solid 3-4 pitching combo who will almost certainly not have an arm issue.

[xposbrad]

Everybody was pretty certain that Headley was going to sign with the Yankees so that option probably not even an option. Its easy to say should have done this and that but all teams have players that are not options for them. It was reported that Melky did not want to go to the West Coast which might have had some reason the M's did not get him and he went to Chicago.

 

You got to take what is given to you to upgrade your team. Just because someone is a free agent does not mean you can sign him. The way I see it is we have upgraded the team by 4-5 wins i would say so far and its not even xmas yet and by saving money.

 

As a fan, does the team saving money really matter to you? It matters only if they plan on spending the saved money. Gregerson was the guy this team should have signed with that 'saved' money. A reliable reliever is what this team needed. Now, we have Navarro as a trade chip, but small chance we get someone like a Gregerson with him.

[xposbrad]

They aren't tho... Stroman and Hutchison are.

 

Dickey and MB are what they are, a solid 3-4 pitching combo who will almost certainly not have an arm issue.

 

Who do you think the opening day starter will be then? Stroman?

[baloojayz]

I don't even oppose picking up a decent pitcher (although I don't think I could support getting Scherzer for 6+ years). It would give us a big bonus over what Happ would provide, give us depth and let Norris develop a bit more.

 

I was just arguing that we are a substantially better club with the OS moves.

 

Yeah and my argument is I feel a lot of the value we gained from the OS moves was salary relief and all of that value is probably going to be wasted. If AA could swing a trade of Navarro, Estrada, Sanchez, +??? for a legit 1-2 SP, we are set. Then we can lay back and let all the other teams do w/e TF they wanted to do, and just pick up some RP here and there.

 

As it stands now, AA doing nothing while all the other teams are making moves is REALLY frustrating and going a long way to erase how well the OS started off.

[L54]

As a fan, does the team saving money really matter to you? It matters only if they plan on spending the saved money. Gregerson was the guy this team should have signed with that 'saved' money. A reliable reliever is what this team needed. Now, we have Navarro as a trade chip, but small chance we get someone like a Gregerson with him.

 

Yes, yes it does. Just because there are funds available, doesn't mean you have to go spend it as soon as you can. The money saved might not all be spent this offseason, but could allow for room to take on another contract midseason, depending on where the team is at.

[intentional wok]

Who do you think the opening day starter will be then? Stroman?

 

Just to jump in here - this is more an ego issue than anything. Dickey starting opening day (likely) doesn't mean he's better than the young arms, or even that anyone thinks that. Short of picking up Scherzer, my gut says no one gets the opening start over Dickey.

 

Ego counts for a lot, which is why Jose Reyes is still an everyday shortstop.

[L54]

Who do you think the opening day starter will be then? Stroman?

 

This is quite irrelevant to me. The opening day starter is just that- the opening day starter.

 

A better question would be who do you think starts the wildcard game if the Jays were in that situation? In that case, in a vacuum, majority of the board would choose Stroman.

[Pulk_Pull]

Wait, I thought you gentlemen were down on the roster? 85 wins is above their current projection.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

[baloojayz]

As a fan, does the team saving money really matter to you? It matters only if they plan on spending the saved money. Gregerson was the guy this team should have signed with that 'saved' money. A reliable reliever is what this team needed. Now, we have Navarro as a trade chip, but small chance we get someone like a Gregerson with him.

 

Yeah esp. since everyone knows he's on the block as we want Edwin DHing and Navarro wants to be the everyday C. Him coming to spring training heavier doesn't help his value either if anyone wanted to extrapolate for this off-season XD

[labadee]

Just to jump in here - this is more an ego issue than anything. Dickey starting opening day (likely) doesn't mean he's better than the young arms, or even that anyone thinks that. Short of picking up Scherzer, my gut says no one gets the opening start over Dickey.

 

Ego counts for a lot, which is why Jose Reyes is still an everyday shortstop.

 

and because the jays are paying him a shitload of money and won't pay him to sit on the bench

[Mikeleelop]

Wait, I thought you gentlemen were down on the roster? 85 wins is above their current projection.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

which according to projections for the other teams will get them into the wild card game.

[JaysRap]

Wait, I thought you gentlemen were down on the roster? 85 wins is above their current projection.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

I see it says 84 wins for the Jays. But of note though:

 

Red Sox - 87

Tigers - 86

Indians - 85

Angels - 84

 

If we don't win out the AL East, we have to know what the other teams around us project out as well if we're competing for a WC.

[L54]

and because the jays are paying him a shitload of money and won't pay him to sit on the bench

 

Or because he's still an above average SS in the league.

 

Reyes himself isn't the problem. His contract is.

[baloojayz]

Wait, I thought you gentlemen were down on the roster? 85 wins is above their current projection.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Down on FO not spending money on FA. Also we improved 1 win according to fangraphs? I thought atleast 2...Bunch of BS though if it's projecting Seattle to be first overall.

[intentional wok]

and because the jays are paying him a shitload of money and won't pay him to sit on the bench

 

I don't think he's a bench player at all, though. I would prefer to move him to 2B and get a more skilled defender at SS, if possible. However I'm open to the idea that either/or won't make a difference for Reyes or the team. But, again, it wouldn't happen even if it were proven to be of benefit because Reyes wants to play SS and I doubt the team would risk pissing him off by suggesting he can't do part of his job anymore.