Did AA Fleece Beane?

[burlingtonbandit]

J

 

 

 

It kind of bothers me, this obsession with "winning the trade". If the Jays win the division next year, did we "win the trade"? Do we have to wish ill will on all the players we traded so we can brag on a message board that we "won the trade"? I think it's great when a player we deal does well. It helps AAs reputation and gets deals done in the future.

 

Exactly. Its like with the Mets trade people want d'arnaud and Synderguard to fail so the trade doesn't look bad for the blue jays. If anything it will make that GM hesitate to make deals in the future if your prospects keep failing.

[JFD]

The question here is: Who got the better Black Friday deal, AA or me? (I got Shadow of Mordor for $20... Pretty slick...)

 

awesome game but too easy and short. take your time and do the side missions if you want to enjoy it to the fullest.

[John_Havok]

Exactly. Its like with the Mets trade people want d'arnaud and Synderguard to fail so the trade doesn't look bad for the blue jays. If anything it will make that GM hesitate to make deals in the future if your prospects keep failing.

 

No GM in the world would stop doing business with a team just because they traded once and the prospects didn't pan out. It's not like their team didn't get to see the prospects beforehand and basically choose the ones they wanted, and they also usually have them for their final minor league development years. if they did t think the prospects were good enough, they wouldn't have agreed to the trade.

[GD]

No GM in the world would stop doing business with a team just because they traded once and the prospects didn't pan out.

 

James Dolan

[Dick_Pole]

I've seen the argument that Beane is selling high on Donaldson. Well, the Jays aren't exactly selling low on Lawrie. Even when he's not injured there's signs there that he will never be beyond a league average bat. 2-3 WAR is his new reality assuming 140+ games. Less with injury risk but at least in Oakland he won't be banging into s*** as easily.

 

The only way the Jays come out as losers is bad luck - Donaldson gets injured or goes out of his way to suck. Otherwise his profile over the next 4 years could out-WAR what Oakland got combined by as much as 20 imo.

[TheHurl]

J

 

 

 

It kind of bothers me, this obsession with "winning the trade". If the Jays win the division next year, did we "win the trade"? Do we have to wish ill will on all the players we traded so we can brag on a message board that we "won the trade"? I think it's great when a player we deal does well. It helps AAs reputation and gets deals done in the future.

 

We still hear the stuff with the Marlins trade as not a big deal cause the players that went back didn't do that much (which I just don't get). At least in this case with the trade I don't see "winning" or spending as the only way out. Donaldson was number 17 on Fangraphs trade value chart, he'll still have that value later.

 

Speaking of the fangraphs trade value. Donaldson was 28 spots higher than EE. Could you imagine if we got this kind of return for EE? There would be a witch hunt on the Danforth

[burlingtonbandit]

We still hear the stuff with the Marlins trade as not a big deal cause the players that went back didn't do that much (which I just don't get). At least in this case with the trade I don't see "winning" or spending as the only way out. Donaldson was number 17 on Fangraphs trade value chart, he'll still have that value later.

 

Speaking of the fangraphs trade value. Donaldson was 28 spots higher than EE. Could you imagine if we got this kind of return for EE? There would be a witch hunt on the Danforth

 

I would trade EE for that package easily. For as much as an injury risk Lawrie is he would barely have to hit to be a 3 WAR player at 2B. No one would trade that package for 2 years of EE though.

[L54]

I've seen the argument that Beane is selling high on Donaldson. Well, the Jays aren't exactly selling low on Lawrie. Even when he's not injured there's signs there that he will never be beyond a league average bat. 2-3 WAR is his new reality assuming 140+ games. Less with injury risk but at least in Oakland he won't be banging into s*** as easily.

 

The only way the Jays come out as losers is bad luck - Donaldson gets injured or goes out of his way to suck. Otherwise his profile over the next 4 years could out-WAR what Oakland got combined by as much as 20 imo.

 

AA also did a good job selling high on the three prospects, especially Graveman.

[ElNik2013]

I don't see a fleecing here. A's are getting 4 young players, including 3 at the MLB level plus an really good 18-year old prospect that just destroyed a league with players 2 or 3 years older than him. I really think Lawrie will end up close to his full potential. Maybe getting traded for the 2nd time will serve as a calm-down call.

 

Jays took a hit in rotation depth by trading Nolin and Graveman. I think we can now expect Estrada and Happ to stay.

[ElNik2013]

AA also did a good job selling high on the three prospects, especially Graveman.

 

 

Gotta give AA credit on drafting both Nolin and Graveman in the 6th and 8th rounds respectively. Here's hoping Cole doesn't get rule-V drafted and makes it to AAA next year.

[TwistedLogic]

A's fans comments thread at AthleticsNation:

 

http://i.gyazo.com/8a4bd8987eca40fcc5c4906b5a280aef.png

 

 

In reference to Lawrie having a tattoo of the lyrics of Eminem's song "Lose Yourself".

 

http://replygif.net/i/1485.gif

[nutz003]

Great deal for the Jays, but not an entirely horrible deal for the A's either. I liked Lawrie a lot, but too injury prone and Donaldson is fantastic. You had to know in order to get him prospects were going to have to be included and I think the Jays did a great job of their core of young pitching in Sanchez, Stroman and Norris. I thought for sure one of them would have had to of been included for Beane to pull the trigger. Too bad Barreto was a piece in the deal, but to get Donaldson totally worth it. Great move by AA, he definitely won the deal in my eyes, but I can see Beane's angle too and why he did it.

[canadiansportsjunkie]

I don't see why any Jays fan wouldn't like this trade even if you are a fan of Lawrie like majority of the fan base including myself.

 

Donaldson will come to Toronto and should pay off huge. Hitting in the dome with his style and the lineup protection is going to be lethal.

 

Lawrie has some of the tools to be a great player but the problem is most of the tools he's lacking cannot be taught personality, patience etc. He has a long road ahead now and I hope the best for him as he was always fun to watch. I personally believe Lawrie will be successful in Oakland but won't be great.

 

Nolin, and Graveman are depth pitchers. There will be more depth pitchers in the future, is it possible they will also succeed with Oakland? Of course they have a proven track record with developing young players and bringing the most out of their players.

 

Barreto is looking promising but is still very young and time will tell.

 

Jays are going for it now! That's what we all want isn't it? Playoffs! NOW

[bill]

I think Beane wisely sold high on Donaldson. Donaldson likely has peaked talent wise while Lawrie still has upside and with the addition of Barreto and the two pitchers Oakland did very very well here.

[L54]

Gotta give AA credit on drafting both Nolin and Graveman in the 6th and 8th rounds respectively. Here's hoping Cole doesn't get rule-V drafted and makes it to AAA next year.

 

Absolutely. Basically turned Marcum, a 6th rd pick, a punted pick to save $$ and an IFA into the game's best three bagger. Well done Alex, well done.

 

I don't hate this trade for the A's. It has potential to work out.

 

What I would hate as an A's fan would be the timing. Just seems irrational and with no clear plan.

[Key22]

Assuming that Graveman and Nolin can both be #4 or #5 starters of solid quality and Lawrie turs into a top five 3B on Defense and is a 20 homer .750ish OPS hitter it's hard to say they got fleeced. The A's fill 3 spots on the roster for dirt cheap. Bareto is a hefty prospect bat.

 

Donaldson is the best player in the deal and the Jays win it simply because Graveman and Nolin are kind of easy guys to replace and Bareto as good as he is - well Travis Snider was ranked as the number 7 best prospect in baseball that mashed. You never know.

 

Beane fills the roster and in that park may flip the pitchers later for something else.

 

AA gets a star player and a middle of the order bat for 4 years. Graveman and Nolin are well down the depth chart for pitching in Toronto and Bareto is maybe an A-chip prospect but the Jays will add A-Chip prospects again and again. So it's Brett Lawrie (and three replaceable parts) for Donaldson.

 

There's no way you can't do this trade if you're AA.

 

But the Jays still seem to me to have the same holes they had in September:

 

2B

LF

CF

Closer

Bullpen

Ace

 

Lot's of time left and lots of trade chips left.

 

Indeed, Jay Bruce or Brandon Moss as left handed bats look more attractive on the trade front now than it did before because of the big right handed bats we have. if Jay Bruce 2014 was an aberration based on his injury he could be a buy low opportunity. Moss is a little below average defensively but has big left handed pop if the Jays don't want to spend the money on Melky.

[TwistedLogic]

 

Quote by Wilner:

 

http://i.gyazo.com/8ba5d2f79a94766c5f770278164026ca.png

 

Not sure about the legitimacy of the claim, as he himself points out "I’ll admit my research hasn’t been confirmed by the Elias Sports Bureau" (typical Wilner), but if true, that's a nice little bit of trivia.

[JFD]

I think Beane wisely sold high on Donaldson. Donaldson likely has peaked talent wise while Lawrie still has upside and with the addition of Barreto and the two pitchers Oakland did very very well here.

 

I think Beane was high when he sold Donaldson.

[burlingtonbandit]

No GM in the world would stop doing business with a team just because they traded once and the prospects didn't pan out. It's not like their team didn't get to see the prospects beforehand and basically choose the ones they wanted, and they also usually have them for their final minor league development years. if they did t think the prospects were good enough, they wouldn't have agreed to the trade.

 

Well obviously not but say all the prospects in the Marlins and Mets deals completely flamed out, GMs would think a little bit more about trading for Jays prospects in the future.

[GNick49]

Beane has eye for finding gems. If he can keep Lawrie healthy, Graveman should be mid-rotation starter, and Barreto lives up to expectations could be good for Oakland. But no way Toronto can lose on this one.

[G-Snarls]

It's probably been said elsewhere, but over the last two years (his first two full MLB seasons) Donaldson has been worth more WAR than every player in baseball other than Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen and Clayton Kershaw.

[Spanky99]

I think Beane wisely sold high on Donaldson. Donaldson likely has peaked talent wise while Lawrie still has upside and with the addition of Barreto and the two pitchers Oakland did very very well here.

 

I think Beane was high when he sold Donaldson.

 

LOL......you win!!

[Dick_Pole]

I think people are forgetting that Lawrie will be a free agent before Donaldson. If Lawrie stinks and is injured, A's lose the trade. If Lawrie performs at least half as good as Donaldson or better, it won't be long before he's shipped out too based on their philosophy so at least from a MLB roster perspective over the next three years, they still lose the trade. Although they would get a good haul out of Lawrie if they did trade him.

 

Based on overall WAR or WAR per dollars spent the Jays are going to come out a mile ahead on this deal for the next four years unless Donaldson gets injured or mysteriously sucks. I guess that's the one thing Oakland has up on this trade. Any one of these four guys turns into garbage, they can still look to the other three to provide value.

[TDotttt2005]

BREAKING NEWS: Wilner says it was a steal for Blue Jays:

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/donaldson-deal-a-stunning-steal-for-blue-jays/

[John_Havok]

Well obviously not but say all the prospects in the Marlins and Mets deals completely flamed out, GMs would think a little bit more about trading for Jays prospects in the future.

 

No ... they really wouldn't. Sure some teams prospects are better than other teams prospects, but that's why teams have their own people to evaluate them prior to a trade. If 2 years from now, the Marlins were in the midst of trade talks with Stanton to the Jays ( just using as an example) and the Jays had 3 top 50 prospects that they were willing to give up (again, pure hypothetical) and the Marlins evaluators loved them more than any other package of prospects being offered to them, do you really think they would think to themselves "gee last time we traded with these guys the prospects just didn't work out, so maybe we should re-think this and take a different package of prospects that our own evaluators don't think are as good?"

 

Just... no.

[Chappy]

More prospects will fizzle out than will be success, it's just how it is. If it weren't no one would trade any of their top prospects. It's a gamble teams take and for good reason, but no team should ever bank on any prospect.

[John_Havok]

More prospects will fizzle out than will be success, it's just how it is. If it weren't no one would trade any of their top prospects. It's a gamble teams take and for good reason, but no team should ever bank on any prospect.

 

Exactly, which is why there's generally always more than 1 top level prospects going in any trade of top talent. The team taking the risks by bringing in prospects wants as many as possible to at least and get 1 to turn out.

 

Statistically speaking, the team getting the prospects usually doesn't get the good end of the stick. Then of course there's always the Bartolo Colon trade ...

[G-Snarls]

Exactly, which is why there's generally always more than 1 top level prospects going in any trade of top talent. The team taking the risks by bringing in prospects wants as many as possible to at least and get 1 to turn out.

 

Statistically speaking, the team getting the prospects usually doesn't get the good end of the stick. Then of course there's always the Bartolo Colon trade ...

 

Exactly. More of them end up like the Halladay trade. Meh.

[canadiansportsjunkie]

Exactly. More of them end up like the Halladay trade. Meh.

 

The Halladay trade was a bit different aging SP getting his last chance

[Jimcanuck]

Exactly. More of them end up like the Halladay trade. Meh.

 

d'Arnaud gonna be good and was actually considered the best prospect of the three (Drabek and Taylor the others)