Did AA Fleece Beane?

[Chappy]

Now that it has sunk in, it still seems like Beane got hosed on this deal. Lawrie is a decent player and we all know Barreto's potential, but Nolin and Graveman are pretty meh. Donaldson is in his prime with 4 years of control and an elite player, seems really odd that the A's wouldn't get back one of our good young arms as well.

[JFD]

yes he did. Beane got fleeced again. he's going mental.

[RealAccountant]

Based on the evidence its hard not to say that. However historically speaking Beane has been a great GM. Its possible that relative to Sanchez/Stroman/Norris, jays have greatly under valued the likes of Graveman and Nolin. Plus the SS prospect definitely has great upside.

 

This cant be about money from Oakland's point of view. I mean they just gave Billy Butler 10 Mil a year.

[Statman]

Now that it has sunk in, it still seems like Beane got hosed on this deal. Lawrie is a decent player and we all know Barreto's potential, but Nolin and Graveman are pretty meh. Donaldson is in his prime with 4 years of control and an elite player, seems really odd that the A's wouldn't get back one of our good young arms as well.

 

Uhhhh yeah!

[Chappy]

History aside, if it wasn't Beane people would be calling it a slaughtering.

[RealAccountant]

Beane has been making bad deals for a while, Seems like he is going in a downward spiral. trading away Cespecades ruined that team's offensive chemistry.

[Statman]

History aside, if it wasn't Beane people would be calling it a slaughtering.

 

Beane has gone full derp. First the Cespedes trade for a rental pitcher. Signing Billy Butler and then shipping out Donaldson for an injury prone 3rd baseman who is nowhere near as good as and a bunch of meh prospects.

[Jimcanuck]

He took a risk.

 

It all hinges on Lawrie of course. Lawrie's talent is equivalent (and arguably higher) than Donaldson. He's also younger. If Lawrie stays healthy and re-finds the power stroke, Beane wins.

[Jimcanuck]

Beane has gone full derp. First the Cespedes trade for a rental pitcher. Signing Billy Butler and then shipping out Donaldson for an injury prone 3rd baseman who is nowhere near as good as and a bunch of meh prospects.

 

Cespedes isn't as good as you might think. And he's a free agent after this year. Beane thought Lester would bring a WS.

[Chappy]

He took a risk.

 

It all hinges on Lawrie of course. Lawrie's talent is equivalent (and arguably higher) than Donaldson. He's also younger. If Lawrie stays healthy and re-finds the power stroke, Beane wins.

 

No, no it isn't.

[RealAccountant]

He took a risk.

 

It all hinges on Lawrie of course. Lawrie's talent is equivalent (and arguably higher) than Donaldson. He's also younger. If Lawrie stays healthy and re-finds the power stroke, Beane wins.

 

I don't agree that Lawrie is a higher talent level. Donaldson is a better pitch selector and has corner infielder power, I always saw Lawrie as nothing more than a slap hitter.

[Statman]

I don't agree that Lawrie is a higher talent level. Donaldson is a better pitch selector and has corner infielder power, I always saw Lawrie as nothing more than a slap hitter.

 

I agree with your sentiment.

[crmr]

Now that it has sunk in, it still seems like Beane got hosed on this deal. Lawrie is a decent player and we all know Barreto's potential, but Nolin and Graveman are pretty meh. Donaldson is in his prime with 4 years of control and an elite player, seems really odd that the A's wouldn't get back one of our good young arms as well.

 

I think we have to give him some benefit of the doubt and assuming he knows what he's doing.

 

It does seem like a very strange trade to me, and I wonder if his epic fail at last year's deadline has got him squirming a little bit.

 

If Lawrie turns into a decent player (really if he stays healthy) and Baretto is an above average MLBer at any position then it probably turns into a draw.

[Deadpool]

Really, it's the 4 years of control on Donaldson. This is the kind of trade you see with 1 or 2 years of control left, but we got Donaldson for 4 f***ing years! FOUR f***ING YEARS!!!

[Jonzo]

Do you believe the rumours that ownership wanted him gone because he called them cheap on Twitter?

[RealAccountant]

Something just doesn't seem right

[Jonzo]

Kenny's take:

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/rosenthal-making-sense-of-athletics-trade-of-all-star-donaldson-to-blue-jays-112814

[wamco]

sold high on barreto and especially on nolin and graveman. (although those two get a boost pitching in OAK). I felt the jays shielded Nolin from being exposed in MLB last year and did a great job in showcasing graveman.

[mitchf]

Yeah and it's really not up for dispute.

[Spanky99]

Now that it has sunk in, it still seems like Beane got hosed on this deal. Lawrie is a decent player and we all know Barreto's potential, but Nolin and Graveman are pretty meh. Donaldson is in his prime with 4 years of control and an elite player, seems really odd that the A's wouldn't get back one of our good young arms as well.

 

Meh, risk reward with both Lawrie and Barreto, Nolin and especially Graveman are going to put up good numbers in that park. Toronto clearly gets the WIN at the optics of the trade, but it could be a lot closer than people think, at the end of the day. IMO

[Deadpool]

The question here is: Who got the better Black Friday deal, AA or me? (I got Shadow of Mordor for $20... Pretty slick...)

[gruber92]

Bean's team say the advanced analytics call it a "win".

 

LMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[gruber92]

Thank God Nolin had some solid AFL starts, or else it would have been Norris going back.

 

THE NINJA IS BACK

[Laika]

Now that it has sunk in, it still seems like Beane got hosed on this deal. Lawrie is a decent player and we all know Barreto's potential, but Nolin and Graveman are pretty meh. Donaldson is in his prime with 4 years of control and an elite player, seems really odd that the A's wouldn't get back one of our good young arms as well.

 

Guaranteed, Billy Beane did the math on the trade and the Athletics "won" the trade on paper.

 

Lawrie and Donaldson are on the opposite sides of the aging curve - Lawrie should be just entering his prime while Donaldson is just exiting his. Without making any improvements, Lawrie is one of the best 3B in baseball - a gold glove 3B with contact skills and 20 HR pop. Of course, the extent to which you think Lawrie's health is a skill / an inherent trait changes how much exactly that will ever be worth to a ball team.

 

It's easy to dismiss Graveman and Nolin as 'meh', but they have significant value. They hold much more value right now than, say, most first round draft picks. I think they are both starting pitchers. Nolin for obvious reasons - and I loved Graveman's stuff when he was up. Kind of a Henderson Alvarez profile.

 

I think Barreto is being very overvalued in the common deal analysis though. A teenager in A- ball who, by near consensus, won't stick at shortstop... I dunno. I get the impact than an up-the-middle guy with with 5 hit 5 power 6 run could potentially have, but the profile isn't other worldly and he's a few years away from doing anything. So much can go wrong.

 

Donaldson is the best 3B in baseball and he's probably a top ~5 player overall for 2014. When was the last time a player like that with 4 years of below market control was dealt?

 

This is what Oakland does though. In order for them to compete, they absolutely have to be in a constant mode of selling high and buying low. The only real obfuscating factor here is that Donaldson isn't much more expensive than Lawrie, or any closer to free agency. That's the weird part.

[saskjayfan]

Meh, risk reward with both Lawrie and Barreto, Nolin and especially Graveman are going to put up good numbers in that park. Toronto clearly gets the WIN at the optics of the trade, but it could be a lot closer than people think, at the end of the day. IMO

 

It could be a trade that works for both teams...especially of Baretto works out. Donaldson provides more certainty and very much could influence other free agents still on the market.

[Laika]

ZiPS doesn't love Lawrie nearly as much as Steamer:

 

[Nox]

ZiPS doesn't love Lawrie nearly as much as Steamer:

 

 

I have a pretty hard time buying a 115 wRC+ for Lawrie's underlying true offensive talent.

[xposbrad]

Beane knows what he is doing. Lawrie appears to be healthy, passed a medical. He's ~4 years younger than Donaldson, and he's entering his prime, whereas, Donaldson is in his prime. They fill their need at 3b, get very serviceable pitching prospects who could end up being quite decent. They also get a highly tooled very young SS that will hold value.

 

Beane has done this many times before, he's spread out his risk over several guys and saves money because he knows Donaldson is going to hit high numbers in arb. The Jays DID get the best player in the trade, right now. However, I wouldn't even call this near a fleecing because I think Barreto is the sleeper player in the deal. This happens time and time again, a team thinks they won their trade with Oak, yet 2-4 years later, you all of a sudden see the players you traded away starting to put up big numbers in Oakland and then somehow they make the playoffs.

 

So no, it wasn't a fleecing, unless you're a hardcore blue jays fan and love every move this team makes, then yes, it was.

Edited November 29, 2014 by xposbrad

[Laika]

I have a pretty hard time buying a 115 wRC+ for Lawrie's underlying true offensive talent.

 

Steamer assumes an awful lot of offensive improvement simply based on age.

 

Watching him play all year, it's obvious that he'll actually have to make some serious adjustments in approach or mechanics to see that improvement.

 

And he's retarded, so that doesn't bode well for his chances to become a more cerebral hitter.

[SAAviour]

Let's decide after bautista, Donaldson, and Edwin face Nolin in the dome this year.

Ahhhh, I just jizzed thinking about it.