Dodgers (No Jays) to hire Farhan Zaidi As GM

[RealAccountant]

Pete walker still has a job

[jaysfan2014]

Pete walker still has a job

 

For how long though?

[BTS]

I don't understand the Walker hate. Hutchison has pitched to expectations. Buehrle is Buehrle. Dickey is a 40-years old with a history of back pain and no stuff to speak of. Sanchez is showing what happens when you take a pitcher with no control and no tangible minor league success and throw him in a major league rotation. What exactly was Walker supposed to do here? The pitching staff sucks.

[GD]

I mean, I'm a proponent of just buying the best Dave Duncan style guys you can since I'm pretty sure there was an article showing the actual effect of pitching coaches and s*** (and also player development is a thing) but it's not like Walker is the atrocious liability some people are making him out to be. It's just scapegoating. Shame is he'll probably be gone too.

[RealAccountant]

I don't understand the Walker hate. Hutchison has pitched to expectations. Buehrle is Buehrle. Dickey is a 40-years old with a history of back pain and no stuff to speak of. Sanchez is showing what happens when you take a pitcher with no control and no tangible minor league success and throw him in a major league rotation. What exactly was Walker supposed to do here? The pitching staff sucks.

 

The bullpen pitchers are not pitching well. You are of the mindset that the pitching coach is meaningless yet you ignore that the most successful pitching teams appear to have life long great pitching coaches. Coaching is a thing not everything is talent and skill.

[Nox]

Friedman's drafting with the Rays was atrocious.

 

That's a large exaggeration.

[TwistedLogic]

That's a large exaggeration.

 

No, it absolutely isn't. Tim Beckham, LeVon Washington, Josh Sale, Justin O'Conner, Drew Vettieson, the front-end of their draft was abysmal throughout his entire tenure. Guerrieri has been a train wreck so far, and even if he comes back and puts it all together, to be the only relevant name out of 11 first round selections in 2011 is just unforgivable. AA got his post in 2010, if you trade his draft history since then with Friedman's, Friedman would be lauded as leading one of the best draft teams in the game, and AA would be suffering an endless crucifixion at the hands of the fans, and especially those on this board.

 

For a forum like ours, where GM's endure scrutiny over the most minute possible mistakes, to give the Rays any sort of pass on their drafting is ridiculous. We don't need to suck Friedman's dick any more than we already do.

[jays4life19]

No, it absolutely isn't. Tim Beckham, LeVon Washington, Josh Sale, Justin O'Conner, Drew Vettieson, the front-end of their draft was abysmal throughout his entire tenure. Guerrieri has been a train wreck so far, and even if he comes back and puts it all together, to be the only relevant name out of 11 first round selections in 2011 is just unforgivable. AA got his post in 2010, if you trade his draft history since then with Friedman's, Friedman would be lauded as leading one of the best draft teams in the game, and AA would be suffering an endless crucifixion at the hands of the fans, and especially those on this board.

 

For a forum like ours, where GM's endure scrutiny over the most minute possible mistakes, to give the Rays any sort of pass on their drafting is ridiculous. We don't need to suck Friedman's dick any more than we already do.

 

He also drafted Longoria, Cobb, (4th round) Jennings (10th round) David Price, Matt Moore (7th round). Atrocious? Nah...not great..sure.

[Boxcar]

No, it absolutely isn't. Tim Beckham, LeVon Washington, Josh Sale, Justin O'Conner, Drew Vettieson, the front-end of their draft was abysmal throughout his entire tenure. Guerrieri has been a train wreck so far, and even if he comes back and puts it all together, to be the only relevant name out of 11 first round selections in 2011 is just unforgivable. AA got his post in 2010, if you trade his draft history since then with Friedman's, Friedman would be lauded as leading one of the best draft teams in the game, and AA would be suffering an endless crucifixion at the hands of the fans, and especially those on this board.

 

For a forum like ours, where GM's endure scrutiny over the most minute possible mistakes, to give the Rays any sort of pass on their drafting is ridiculous. We don't need to suck Friedman's dick any more than we already do.

 

DJ Davis, Deck McGuire, Asher Woj, Jacob Anderson, Joe Musgrove, Kevin Comer, Tyler Gonzales...should I keep going or is that absolutely atrocious enough?

[GD]

Jacob Anderson

 

you shut your god damn whore mouth

[TwistedLogic]

He also drafted Longoria, Cobb, (4th round) Jennings (10th round) David Price, Matt Moore (7th round). Atrocious? Nah...not great..sure.

 

You're really giving him credit for pulling Longoria and Price with the 1:3 and 1:1 picks? Really? When he drafted Beckham 1:1 the next year? Nice, so he hit on two of the three picks he had at the very top of the draft. What a feat.

 

Moore, Cobb and Jennings are the three biggest names that they drafted outside of the top 3 picks. I'll even throw in Vogt, who they gave away to the A's in a cash trade before he broke out. Two of those guys were drafted in '06, and two of them were drafted in '07. Over the last 8 years since, the only guy to come out of a Rays draft in a big way was Kiermaier in 2010, who was picked in the 31st round and was basically a fluke break-out like Pillar and Pompey.

 

Over the last 9 years, outside of two guys in the top 3 picks where you should never miss, two guys in the 10th round or later where luck plays a large role, and one guy they threw away for notihng, the Rays only real successes were Moore and Cobb. People can have their own opinions, but in mine, that's atrocious.

[TwistedLogic]

DJ Davis, Deck McGuire, Asher Woj, Jacob Anderson, Joe Musgrove, Kevin Comer, Tyler Gonzales...should I keep going or is that absolutely atrocious enough?

 

lol you're listing the busts, now list the hits. Let's compare the Jays with the Rays since 2010 then, shall we? Actually no, let's start the Jays at 2010 and give the Rays all the way back to 2008, and compare how many relevant names each team has drafted since then.

 

Go ahead, draw up a list and post it here.

[43211234]

Joe Musgrove is actually looking like he might be a guy.

 

Definitely shouldn't be labeled a bust yet.

[TwistedLogic]

Actually I'll make it easier on anyone shameless enough to bare their nuts to defend the Rays here.

 

Bring me one relevant name other than Kiermaier that the Rays have drafted since after 2008.

[Boxcar]

Actually I'll make it easier on anyone shameless enough to bare their nuts to defend the Rays here.

 

Bring me one relevant name other than Kiermaier that the Rays have drafted since after 2008.

 

Jesse Hahn

 

Your extreme Alex Anthopoulos hard on and Blue Jay homerism is very hard to stomach.

[TwistedLogic]

This is what Friedman had to say prior to the 2011 draft:

 

http://i.gyazo.com/34f5554d4147133a3f068130b25be5ad.png

 

Yeah, they really delivered on that historic draft, didn't they? In the short span where the Rays took Guerrieri (1:24), Mahtook (1:31), Hager (1:32) and Martin (1:38), the Red Sox picked Swihart (1:26), Owens (1:36) and JBJ (1:40). The Giants also took Panik at 1:29. The Rays had already made 10 picks before the Jays stole away Norris at 74, and picked again at 75 to take Granden Goetzman before the Padres took Hedges at 82.

 

To take a couple words from a Rays blog itself, the 2011 draft for them was a catastrophic garbage fire, and the years surrounding it don't look any prettier.

[Nox]

No, it absolutely isn't. Tim Beckham, LeVon Washington, Josh Sale, Justin O'Conner, Drew Vettieson, the front-end of their draft was abysmal throughout his entire tenure. Guerrieri has been a train wreck so far, and even if he comes back and puts it all together, to be the only relevant name out of 11 first round selections in 2011 is just unforgivable. AA got his post in 2010, if you trade his draft history since then with Friedman's, Friedman would be lauded as leading one of the best draft teams in the game, and AA would be suffering an endless crucifixion at the hands of the fans, and especially those on this board.

 

For a forum like ours, where GM's endure scrutiny over the most minute possible mistakes, to give the Rays any sort of pass on their drafting is ridiculous. We don't need to suck Friedman's dick any more than we already do.

 

Longo, Price, Cobb, Upton, Hellickson, Moore, Kiermaier etc etc

 

Easily average since Friedman got there.

 

Discrediting him for picking Longo and Price is really muddled thinking. They produced far above their expected performance based on raw draft production. But I guess we don't assign credit for that because...you're a giant homer? I dunno.

[Nox]

 

To take a couple words from a Rays blog itself, the 2011 draft for them was a catastrophic garbage fire, and the years surrounding it don't look any prettier.

 

That's mostly just lip service. I know for an actual fact they'd trade most of their top draft picks if they were allowed to do so.

[TwistedLogic]

Jesse Hahn

 

Your extreme Alex Anthopoulos hard on and Blue Jay homerism is very hard to stomach.

 

Saying that the Rays are garbage at drafting means I'm a Jays homer? That's ironic, given how much of a hard on you have to have for Friedman to try and defend his drafting during his Rays tenure.

 

You're the one that brought the Jays drafts up in the first place, and even if I'm the biggest Jays homer on earth, can you say ad hominem? You have to be incredibly stupid to take an objective look at both teams' drafting over the past five years and conclude that the Rays were better at drafting than the Jays were. I told you to post a comparison of each team's draft record since 2010, but I know you won't do it because you'll defeat your own stance and embarrass yourself.

 

Longo, Price, Cobb, Upton, Hellickson, Moore, Kiermaier etc etc

 

Easily average since Friedman got there.

 

Discrediting him for picking Longo and Price is really muddled thinking. They produced far above their expected performance based on raw draft production. But I guess we don't assign credit for that because...you're a giant homer? I dunno.

 

Even if he was in the organization, Hellickson and Upton were drafted prior to Friedman becoming the GM. If you wanna stretch to give him Hellickson, I get to stretch to s*** on him for drafting Delmon at 1:1 and Townsend at 1:8.

 

I don't discredit Longo or Price, but to say someone is good at drafting for hitting on guys at the top of the draft is idiotic. It's like saying that the Nats are geniuses for drafting Harper and Strasburg. He loses a lot of the credit he gets for drafting Longo and Price by blowing a 1:1 on Beckham.

 

And what exactly is that "etc etc"? After the guys you listed, and Jennings, who is the "etc"?

[TwistedLogic]

The level of irony here in the use of the word homer is hilarious.

[Nox]

 

If you wanna stretch to give him Hellickson, I get to stretch to s*** on him for drafting Delmon at 1:1 .

 

When working at an investment bank like Bear Stearns, do you draft a player by buying puts? Shorting tobacco futures? Pressing a secret key sequence on your Bloomberg terminal? Please advise.

 

He loses a lot of the credit he gets for drafting Longo and Price by blowing a 1:1 on Beckham.

 

Add those 3 players' contributions up over their team control, divide by 3 and he's still above the average for 3 top 3 picks. So I really don't know what you mean.

 

It's like saying that the Nats are geniuses for drafting Harper and Strasburg.

 

Dana Brown was hired in part by your favourite team because "he drafted Strasburg". Wish I was joking.

[TwistedLogic]

Add those 3 players' contributions up over their team control, divide by 3 and he's still above the average for 3 top 3 picks. So I really don't know what you mean.

 

So Friedman deserves credit because there were better prospects simply present in the drafts where his team had the #1-3 picks? Oh.

 

Well okay in that case, why'd you stop? I mean if you wanna average out his success with his top picks, why do you limit that to a three year sample that began nearly a decade ago? Why not expand that sample to the additional seven years since then?

 

Dana Brown was hired in part by your favourite team because "he drafted Strasburg". Wish I was joking.

 

I never set out to defend the Jays FO here though, did I? I made a one-line post about my distaste of the Rays drafting in recent years, and you typically started a semantics argument about my use of the word atrocious. Then Boxy came along and threw out an irresponsible Jays comparison when he shouldn't have, because anybody here who doesn't have turd in their eyes knows that the Jays have been far superior at drafting since AA's tenure began. Nothing I've said in this discussion has strayed away from facts.

 

Now you're the one stuck defending your favorite team in a place where there's absolutely no logical defense. You wanna suck Friedman off because he hit on a 1:3 prospect 9 years ago, go ahead. The Rays have been garbage at drafting since that time, and there's really nothing you can say to prove that false. The Jays drafted more relevant prospects in 2010 alone (in Sanchez, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Nolin and Pompey) than the Rays have in the seven combined years since.

 

I'm done wasting my time on this, can't make a point against people buried so deep under their own biases. You're irritated by the reality that a team you admire to such a strong degree has had such an incredible weakness for such a long time, and that's fine, but no matter how hard you try to spin it, you can't prove that that weakness hasn't existed.

[Nox]

So Friedman deserves credit because there were better prospects simply present in the drafts where his team had the #1-3 picks? Oh.

 

Well okay in that case, why'd you stop? I mean if you wanna average out his success with his top picks, why do you limit that to a three year sample that began nearly a decade ago? Why not add the additional 7 years since then, and continue to divide?

 

What are you talking about? You divide by 3 because there are three players he's picked in the top 3. It's you know, an average? You then would compare that to what you'd expect historically for a top 3 pick. Those charts are out there on the net if you want to look them up. (Price + Longo + Beckham) / 3 > HistoricalAvgTop3 pick.

 

I never set out to defend the Jays FO here though, did I?

...

and you typically started a semantics argument about my use of the word atrocious.

 

Your reputation proceeds you. You've had some of the most laughable pro AA posts in this board's history. And saying a team that is ok at doing something is "atrocious" is not semantics. It's hyperbole and plainly wrong in this case.

 

The Jays drafted more relevant prospects in 2010 (in Sanchez, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Nolin and Pompey) than the Rays have in the seven combined years since.

 

I'd take Kiermaier over anyone on that list other than Syndergaard. It's not particularity close either.

 

Choosing 2010 is just so stupid.

 

In fact, trying to actually pin down a front office's drafting true talent is a fools errand due to the lack of data for a particular GM. The only way to model it at all is a Bayesian approach with some weakly informative priors. To have a strong opinion either way regarding a GM's drafting ability is just not understanding the problem's technical underpinnings. Friedman is not "atrocious" at drafting. Dayton Moore is not some drafting guru. Nobody in the league falls into either of those categories, not even Ruben Amaro. They're all just guys doing their best to steer a process in a very noisy environment.

 

I'm done wasting my time on this, can't make a point against people buried so deep under their own biases.

 

Coming from the guy who thought the Rays under was an easy call pre-season when A) standard public projections had the over being one of the easiest plays league wide and Almost all Tampa action from sharps being put on the over this year.

 

There's also the fact that I'm not even really a Rays fan. I've been a Jays fan my entire life and will continue to be so once the fat f***ing imbecile in charge is booted out.

[Boxcar]

So Friedman deserves credit because there were better prospects simply present in the drafts where his team had the #1-3 picks? Oh.

 

Well okay in that case, why'd you stop? I mean if you wanna average out his success with his top picks, why do you limit that to a three year sample that began nearly a decade ago? Why not expand that sample to the additional seven years since then?

 

 

 

I never set out to defend the Jays FO here though, did I? I made a one-line post about my distaste of the Rays drafting in recent years, and you typically started a semantics argument about my use of the word atrocious. Then Boxy came along and threw out an irresponsible Jays comparison when he shouldn't have, because anybody here who doesn't have turd in their eyes knows that the Jays have been far superior at drafting since AA's tenure began. Nothing I've said in this discussion has strayed away from facts.

 

Now you're the one stuck defending your favorite team in a place where there's absolutely no logical defense. You wanna suck Friedman off because he hit on a 1:3 prospect 9 years ago, go ahead. The Rays have been garbage at drafting since that time, and there's really nothing you can say to prove that false. The Jays drafted more relevant prospects in 2010 alone (in Sanchez, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Nolin and Pompey) than the Rays have in the seven combined years since.

 

I'm done wasting my time on this, can't make a point against people buried so deep under their own biases. You're irritated by the reality that a team you admire to such a strong degree has had such an incredible weakness for such a long time, and that's fine, but no matter how hard you try to spin it, you can't prove that that weakness hasn't existed.

 

How the f*** can you bring up Justin Nicolino or Sean Nolin as "relevant?"

 

Tim Beckham is relevant, by that same measure. What's your measuring stick? Do they get a boost from being Blue Jay farmhands? Justin Nicolino has done absolutely f*** all. I'll be shocked if he accumulates more WAR than bust Beckham.

 

People get their backs up because your Rays attack posts just come off as overly aggressive and dismissive while lacking any clear process.

[TwistedLogic]

What are you talking about? You divide by 3 because there are three players he's picked in the top 3. It's you know, an average? You then would compare that to what you'd expect historically for a top 3 pick. Those charts are out there on the net if you want to look them up. (Price + Longo + Beckham) / 3 > HistoricalAvgTop3 pick.

And he might have been "above average" for picks in the top 3 nearly a decade ago. Not only is that mostly out of his control, and determined more by the strength of the prospects simply available in the draft, that doesn't change that if you were to calculate averages for his first round selections in the seven years since, there's no way he's anywhere near average, considering everybody he's drafted since then has done f***-all.

 

Your reputation proceeds you.

*Precedes. That typo was atrocious. What you wrote means literally the exact opposite of what you were going for.

 

And saying a team that is ok at doing something is "atrocious" is not semantics. It's hyperbole and plainly wrong in this case.

Except that's ********. You've done nothing to dispel my claim that they've been hideous at drafting in recent years. You haven't even attempted to defend their drafting from 2008 to 2014, because you know it's been garbage, and I am completely correct in saying it has been. If you think that a 31st round Kiermaier draw is enough to compensate for 4-5 years of terrible drafting, enough to even consider a team average at drafting, then I'm sorry to say, but I'm not the one here making laughable posts.

 

In fact, trying to actually pin down a front office's drafting true talent is a fools errand due to the lack of data for a particular GM. The only way to model it at all is a Bayesian approach with some weakly informative priors. To have a strong opinion either way regarding a GM's drafting ability is just not understanding the problem's technical underpinnings. Friedman is not "atrocious" at drafting. Dayton Moore is not some drafting guru. Nobody in the league falls into either of those categories, not even Ruben Amaro. They're all just guys doing their best to steer a process in a very noisy environment.

Funny, because we seem to pin down just about everything else a GM does to give or take credit from them in single sweeps, without any regard to what influence the rest of the front office around them has to their decisions. You don't want to pin down a front office's ability to draft because it goes against your biases. Engulfing your sentences in a bunch of convoluted rhetoric doesn't make you seem smart, and it doesn't make your point any more cogent.

 

Coming from the guy who thought the Rays under was an easy call pre-season when A) standard public projections had the over being one of the easiest plays league wide and Almost all Tampa action from sharps being put on the over this year.

I never said the projections were wrong, I never even said I was right. I made a joke post that you turned into something bigger like you did here, because I knew all the sheeple on this forum would pick the Rays and I didn't mind going against the grain in an inconsequential predictions thread. I don't expect people as anal and uptight as you guys to understand that I don't care about being right all the time. This is a recreation.

[TwistedLogic]

How the f*** can you bring up Justin Nicolino or Sean Nolin as "relevant?"

Because they were turned into key pieces of major trades before they became irrelevant. I know they're nothing prospects right now, just like I know Smoral and DSJ and Borucki are still nothing prospects, which is why I didn't mention any of them. But AA actually leveraged value out of the picks he used on Nicolino and Nolin, unlike what the Rays did with many of their major busts, including Beckham.

 

People get their backs up because your Rays attack posts just come off as overly aggressive and dismissive while lacking any clear process.

I've never attacked the Rays outside of criticizing their recent draft history, and I've been completely justified in doing so. Neither of you have yet to refute that. Tell me how you can paint any semblance of success on their drafts since '07. You can't, which is why you both keep taking your straw men out to a swim with your red herrings.

 

I know I said I was done with this, but when you make up blatantly false garbage like accusing me of attacking your beloved Rays, I'm not gonna ignore that either.

[Boxcar]

Because they were turned into key pieces of major trades before they became irrelevant. I know they're nothing prospects right now, just like I know Smoral and DSJ and Borucki are still nothing prospects, which is why I didn't mention any of them. But AA actually leveraged value out of the picks he used on Nicolino and Nolin, unlike what the Rays did with many of their major busts, including Beckham.

 

Yet you listed Delmon Young as irrelevant when he was the key cog in one of TB's most successful trades...do you see a recurring theme here?

 

I've never attacked the Rays outside of criticizing their recent draft history, and I've been completely justified in doing so. Neither of you have yet to refute that. Tell me how you can paint any semblance of success on their drafts since '07. You can't, which is why you both keep taking your straw men out to a swim with your red herrings.

 

The reason the Jays were brought into the picture is because, in the past, you have consistently overstated the Blue Jays drafting record while understating the drafting record of other teams, like the Rays. I'd let Nox argue the rest because he has far more knowledge about this stuff than I do, but it's not like the Rays went off the board. The guys they took were all expected to go around where they did. I remember people dying to get Taylor Guerrieri before Beede was picked, a lot of people wanted Josh Sale, Mikie Mahtook went where he was supposed to (and will still probably be more relevant than Aaron Sanchez), and Beckham wasn't even a cost saving pick: "Beckham was rated by publications such as Baseball America as the top high school baseball prospect in the nation.[1] Beckham is described as a potential five tool player at the major league level. Beckham runs the 60 yard dash in 6.33 seconds, and bench presses 200 lbs. He stands 6'0" and weighs 190 lbs." - from Wikipedia. I bet most teams would have taken him #1. There's no way to know for certain.

 

What you seem to be trying to do is take an extremely inexact science and push it as something it's not. The Rays got kind of unlucky, but they haven't done poorly.

 

I know I said I was done with this, but when you make up blatantly false garbage like accusing me of attacking your beloved Rays, I'm not gonna ignore that either.

Like Nox, I am, unfortunately, a Jays fan. The Rays aren't even my second favourite team.

[Nox]

determined more by the strength of the prospects simply available in the draft

 

So by this line of reasoning, why does the Beckham pick deserve scorn? Can't we just say that they were unlucky that there wasn't a better consensus top pick that year? The only reason I focused on those top 3 picks was because you said he deserved more discredit for missing on Beckham than he did for hitting on Longoria/Price. Averaging those picks and comparing to the historical expectation of those draft slots was the quickest/easiest way to show that you were full of s***.

 

You've done nothing to dispel my claim that they've been hideous at drafting in recent years.

 

What's there to dispel? You want to compare the draft records from 2010-2014? Why? We're only really in a position to evaluate the 2010 and maybe 2011 drafts. This isn't football when you can semi-reasonably do a retrospective within 2 or 3 years. Either one of these teams could have a guy popup from the 2012 or 2013 drafts and become 3 WAR contributors in the not too distant future. That could easily happen.

 

And even if they Rays' drafting in this timeframe does eventually grade out to be below average to bad (it very well might), why should we allocate those substantially more weight to that than the franchise defining drafts of 2005-2010? It doesn't make sense at all to put this filter on the data when the general assertion is: "This GM is bad at drafting" ?

 

Engulfing your sentences in a bunch of convoluted rhetoric doesn't make you seem smart, and it doesn't make your point any more cogent.

 

If mentioning Bayes and the closely related notion of a prior encodes as "rhetoric" to you, we really don't have much to discuss. Don't mistake your ignorance for anything other than exactly that.

 

I don't expect people as anal and uptight as you guys to understand that I don't care about being right all the time.

 

You of all people are going to say that?

 

I thought you were done with this discussion yesterday Mr. Joe Cool? I guess there was just too much recreation to pass up on for a Saturday in May.

[TwistedLogic]

So by this line of reasoning, why does the Beckham pick deserve scorn? Can't we just say that they were unlucky that there wasn't a better consensus top pick that year?

If you want to pretend that Posey wasn't on the same board, sure.

 

What's there to dispel? You want to compare the draft records from 2010-2014? Why? We're only really in a position to evaluate the 2010 and maybe 2011 drafts.

Do 2008 and 2009 not exist anymore? Or are we not in a position to evaluate them?

 

Why should we allocate those substantially more weight to that than the franchise defining drafts of 2005-2010?

2008, 2009 and 2010 were franchise defining drafts? Thanks for conceding and proving my point then. I agree, they do define that franchise over the past half decade.

 

I thought you were done with this discussion yesterday Mr. Joe Cool?

Mr. Joe Cool? http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-laughing002.gif

 

Yet you listed Delmon Young as irrelevant when he was the key cog in one of TB's most successful trades...do you see a recurring theme here?

Delmon Young was drafted in 2003, he was not drafted when Friedman was GM. I never said he was irrelevant. I only mentioned him once, as a poor top 1:1 pick, when Nox mentioned Hellickson. He has nothing to do with what I've said all along, that they've had weak drafts for seven straight years. And yet again, you've yet to disprove that.

[TwistedLogic]

I'd let Nox argue the rest because he has far more knowledge about this stuff than I do, but it's not like the Rays went off the board. The guys they took were all expected to go around where they did. I remember people dying to get Taylor Guerrieri before Beede was picked, a lot of people wanted Josh Sale, Mikie Mahtook went where he was supposed to (and will still probably be more relevant than Aaron Sanchez), and Beckham wasn't even a cost saving pick: "Beckham was rated by publications such as Baseball America as the top high school baseball prospect in the nation.[1] Beckham is described as a potential five tool player at the major league level. Beckham runs the 60 yard dash in 6.33 seconds, and bench presses 200 lbs. He stands 6'0" and weighs 190 lbs." - from Wikipedia. I bet most teams would have taken him #1. There's no way to know for certain.

 

What you seem to be trying to do is take an extremely inexact science and push it as something it's not. The Rays got kind of unlucky, but they haven't done poorly.

 

That's such hot garbage. This is exactly what these teams are paid and made to do. They have an entire department of scouts that spend an entire year meticulously shuffling through thousands of players, putting every amateur athlete under a microscope to come up with a list that is as precise as possible. Their entire mission is to literally predict which players will hit and which won't. They are paid to see the future. Every step of the way the people on this forum s*** on the Jays about moves in hindsight, and while I agree with most of those sentiments, it doesn't make me a homer to ask for some consistency. We can s*** on the Jays for poor draft picks or for not correctly predicting breakouts like Gomes, but we can give a pass to the Rays on a terrible draft when the Red Sox picked right along side them, and hit on nearly every guy?

 

We judge GM's and their front offices on what we know now. We don't give them the benefit of the doubt in not being able to predict the future or "making the right choice at the time". We never have done that, and there's no reason to start now just because it sheds a negative light on a team we admire. The draft is one of the more important pools from which the Rays should be getting their talent, and for seven years, they've been wildly unsuccessful at it.