Aaron Sanchez stud closer for 2015

[saskjayfan]

We probably disagree on how "great" he is since I tend to not lose my s*** over a 20 inning sample. Do I think he's primed for acedom? No. Do I think he has a chance to be a decent 2/3? Possibly.

 

Your argument about his fastball makes absolutely no sense but I admire you for sticking to your guns even in the face of being completely wrong.

 

Yes I am completely wrong. Sanchez adding a change up won't increase his swing and miss percentage. Sanchez improving his command will not increase his swing and miss percentage. Sanchez learning how to pitch at the major league level will not increase his swing and miss percentage. I don't need a 20 inning sample size to judge the guy because I'm not judging his stats. I'm using my eyes and seeing how he throws his fastball and curve.

 

Don't you find it funny that you aren't losing your s*** over a 20 inning sample size, but you're dismissing him because his swing and miss percentage over the same small sample size.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

SP #5 >> Closer

 

Who is a #5?

[Andrick]

Wow, almost as if he is just like every other pitcher.

 

Alright, yeah. Let's go with what you say even though the average ERA of starters in the AL East this year over the first 3 innings is 3.70 compared to it being 4.28 when those same starters are in the 4th inning and beyond. A lot of the best starters who pitch (or have pitched) in the AL East this year have actually lowered their ERA from the 4th inning on as well with guys like Tillman, Price, Lester, Archer and a couple of others having done so. Tanaka's is equal at 2.50 and 2.51. There's only been five starters in the AL East this year who have seen their ERA increase by more than 2.00 from the 4th on, although the Jays happen to have two of them in Dickey & Happ. Ubaldo is the only pitcher in the division to see his ERA jump by more than 3.00 (3.43 - 6.67). But yes, let's just say that going from a 1.00 ERA to an 8.16 after the 4th inning is normal shall we? I'm game.

[Governator]

Before this season, Sanchez had only pitched freaking A ball... He's now pitching in the majors as one of our most reliable arms. Stop scrutinizing him already.

[Angrioter]

Who is a #5?

Sanchez, in the worst case could be our 5th starter in 2015; that's better than being a closer of an .500 team.

[GNick49]

Sanchez is only one in system with closer stuff. Unless they bring back Morrow or Janssen

[Angrioter]

Sanchez is only one in system with closer stuff. Unless they bring back Morrow or Janssen

 

Yes. Sanchez, Morrow and Janssen..................and Norris, Jackson, Graveman, Nolin, Osuna, Castro, Hoffman and all the guy who can throw a baseball to the home plate.

[GNick49]

Yes. Sanchez, Morrow and Janssen..................and Norris, Jackson, Graveman, Nolin, Osuna, Castro, Hoffman and all the guy who can throw a baseball to the home plate.

 

Morrow likely won't be back, even Janssen is unknown. Rest you mentioned are not ready

[Andrick]

Where did you get those splits? Manually compile them, or is there somewhere that gives inning by inning (or grouping of inning) splits? And for minor leaguers?

 

Yeah, I had to do them manually. Went to MiLB.com, looked up Sanchez' individual game logs and then looked up the boxscores for each of his starts. Not sure where those splits would be available otherwise if they even are. But with him only having 6 AAA starts it didn't really take that long at all.

[BigCecil]

Sanchez is only one in system with closer stuff. Unless they bring back Morrow or Janssen

 

Cecil and 2013 Delabar have closer stuff imo and Delabar is about as safe a bet as Morrow...which is not very. At least Delabar is cheaper.

[Boxcar]

Yes I am completely wrong. Sanchez adding a change up won't increase his swing and miss percentage. Sanchez improving his command will not increase his swing and miss percentage. Sanchez learning how to pitch at the major league level will not increase his swing and miss percentage. I don't need a 20 inning sample size to judge the guy because I'm not judging his stats. I'm using my eyes and seeing how he throws his fastball and curve.

 

Don't you find it funny that you aren't losing your s*** over a 20 inning sample size, but you're dismissing him because his swing and miss percentage over the same small sample size.

 

If his entire minor league career is a small sample size, then you are correct. My bad.

[Boxcar]

Alright, yeah. Let's go with what you say even though the average ERA of starters in the AL East this year over the first 3 innings is 3.70 compared to it being 4.28 when those same starters are in the 4th inning and beyond. A lot of the best starters who pitch (or have pitched) in the AL East this year have actually lowered their ERA from the 4th inning on as well with guys like Tillman, Price, Lester, Archer and a couple of others having done so. Tanaka's is equal at 2.50 and 2.51. There's only been five starters in the AL East this year who have seen their ERA increase by more than 2.00 from the 4th on, although the Jays happen to have two of them in Dickey & Happ. Ubaldo is the only pitcher in the division to see his ERA jump by more than 3.00 (3.43 - 6.67). But yes, let's just say that going from a 1.00 ERA to an 8.16 after the 4th inning is normal shall we? I'm game.

 

Sounds good! Let's do that.

[L54]

I find the idea 100% the right move. And rest assured I'm brighter and more educated than you. So if I'm an idiot, you're a ... ?

 

I love when guys pull the "more educated than you" card. Truly validates their superiority.

[Angrioter]

Alright, yeah. Let's go with what you say even though the average ERA of starters in the AL East this year over the first 3 innings is 3.70 compared to it being 4.28 when those same starters are in the 4th inning and beyond. A lot of the best starters who pitch (or have pitched) in the AL East this year have actually lowered their ERA from the 4th inning on as well with guys like Tillman, Price, Lester, Archer and a couple of others having done so. Tanaka's is equal at 2.50 and 2.51. There's only been five starters in the AL East this year who have seen their ERA increase by more than 2.00 from the 4th on, although the Jays happen to have two of them in Dickey & Happ. Ubaldo is the only pitcher in the division to see his ERA jump by more than 3.00 (3.43 - 6.67). But yes, let's just say that going from a 1.00 ERA to an 8.16 after the 4th inning is normal shall we? I'm game.

 

Good broda!!

[Angrioter]

Doc made it cool to miss barrels, and not necessarily bats altogether. I'm not worried about Sanchez's ability to miss barrels or bats. I don't think he's going to be an easy pitcher to square up and get good wood on......having a veteran catcher behind the plate that can call a good game will also aid in this, while he's young and still learning.

 

Sanchez is our own version of Porcello, but wild at times.......90% of the time.

[RealAccountant]

Morrow as a closer would look amazing

 

 

 

On our D/L like every year

[DuckDuckGose]

I think they're laying the ground work to try to rework a Morrow deal to bring him back at a palatable rate as a back-end reliever. If they can't pull that off, I think Sanchez as back-end reliever is a slam dunk for next year. If they do pull off a Morrow reworked deal, Sanchez could still very well be bullpen bound.

 

And, if Sanchez can somehow stay effective in that capacity, he'll bring a lot more value to the org than what a Value/WAR analysis would indicate. His arsenal of a moving fastball and nothing else except an Eephus curve won't play at 94-95 mph as a starter, since folks are already having success making contact when he's sitting 97. That's if he miraculously could maintain his mechanics as he wears down as a starter, of course.

 

And in a couple years, when Morrow is gone (if he re-signs), he and Stroman will make a nice back-end of a bullpen.

 

IMO they'll start Sanchez out of the BP and Morrow out of the rotation (probably a reduced deal). If Morrow flounders/gets hurt they'll move Sanchez in. Similar to what they did with Stroman this year.

[z3r0s]

IMO they'll start Sanchez out of the BP and Morrow out of the rotation (probably a reduced deal). If Morrow flounders/gets hurt they'll move Sanchez in. Similar to what they did with Stroman this year.

 

Why do people think Morrow will come back on a reduced deal? We see injury prone starters sign 1 year deals at good money EVERY YEAR. He will go where the money is and to an environment better suited for building value.

 

He certainly isn't going to come back here on the cheap to pitch out of the BP as some may suggest.

[DuckDuckGose]

Why do people think Morrow will come back on a reduced deal? We see injury prone starters sign 1 year deals at good money EVERY YEAR. He will go where the money is and to an environment better suited for building value.

 

He certainly isn't going to come back here on the cheap to pitch out of the BP as some may suggest.

 

I think the Jays can offer him a chance to start. I don't think they'd pick up his option at $10M and I don't think he'd get that on the open market either. I think $7-8$M, like Happ, to be the 5th SP is reasonable and I'm sure Morrow knows that he wont be getting $10M in FA.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think the Jays can offer him a chance to start. I don't think they'd pick up his option at $10M and I don't think he'd get that on the open market either. I think $7-8$M, like Happ, to be the 5th SP is reasonable and I'm sure Morrow knows that he wont be getting $10M in FA.

 

Morrow on a 7-8 million$ deal would be a waste for how this roster is constructed. You can't pay 7 million for a lottery ticket when you need to use available funds on more sure things to help the team win as many games as they can.

[Governator]

Morrow on a 7-8 million$ deal would be a waste for how this roster is constructed. You can't pay 7 million for a lottery ticket when you need to use available funds on more sure things to help the team win as many games as they can.

 

The odds are only 50/50 Morrow gets injured

[DuckDuckGose]

Morrow on a 7-8 million$ deal would be a waste for how this roster is constructed. You can't pay 7 million for a lottery ticket when you need to use available funds on more sure things to help the team win as many games as they can.

 

That's BS, if they can afford Buehrle at $19M they can absolutely work in Morrow at $7M. Morrow is more than a lottery ticket anyways.

[RealAccountant]

The odds are only 50/50 Morrow gets injured

 

Morrow has gotten injured three straight years. I'm not as smart as moogy but I'd say there is a very good chance that Morrow will be hurt next year say 100%.

 

 

But ppl here are still going to want to sign him BC DAT arm

[burlingtonbandit]

That's BS, if they can afford Buehrle at $19M they can absolutely work in Morrow at $7M. Morrow is more than a lottery ticket anyways.

 

Sure they could afford him with having Cabrera leave and going in to 2015 with no 2nd baseman. It comes down to do you want Morrow at 7 million or do you use those funds to improve 2nd base or CF. They have good SP depth with what they have right now so Morrow isn't really the best fit.

[DuckDuckGose]

Sure they could afford him with having Cabrera leave and going in to 2015 with no 2nd baseman. It comes down to do you want Morrow at 7 million or do you use those funds to improve 2nd base or CF. They have good SP depth with what they have right now so Morrow isn't really the best fit.

 

If it's one or the other they need to blow it up because the entire payroll structure wont work.

[burlingtonbandit]

If it's one or the other they need to blow it up because the entire payroll structure wont work.

 

Don't really need to blow it up. You can go into the season and if they falter trade off guys at the deadline and still get value in return that would be comparable to this offseason. There is a health risk but for how long this team hasn't won, I think you have to take a shot and get to the playoffs. This team could be a real contender if they were to spend 165 million but we know that won't happen.

[L54]

Right?!? It's as effective as "it's an idea of an idiot, because only idiots would suggest this idea." #z3r0ssense

 

Hypothetically, if the Jays were to move into a retool, would you still advocate Sanchez to the pen? In a year that probably wouldn't mean much, wouldn't you be interested to see what he can do as a starter?

 

I agree that as a back end reliever he would be successful. I feel like you're taking this stance though, so that in 3 years if he has failed (as most starters do), you can bring up this thread to say "I told you so". It's really not that bold of a prediction. Guys with plus velocity often don't have a problem finding a job in an MLB pen.

 

That being said, he has been handled wrong. He should've been left in AAA/AA to work on his secondary offerings. If he makes the rotation out of ST next year, he's likely doomed as a starter, as he'll get shelled because his stuff isn't up to par due to not being given time to develop his secondaries properly. If anything, we should be talking about Sanchez as a September call up next September, and not what his future holds right now.

[closetjaysfan]

It is a fallacy to say that a team NEEDS a closer. If a team doesn't have a pure closer, then it is better to keep a BP rotation that prioritizes rest and arm strength. The idea that Sanchez should be our closer because no one else is better suited is just crazy. It may be something to explore if he proves that starting isn't his game but until then...

[z3r0s]

He has contributed 27.1 IP this year. 54.1 IP in 2013. 124.2 in 2012.

 

And he's been pretty s***** while he has pitched in that time period.

 

Has there been anyone, at his age, with his type of track record (never once ... as in, ever, throwing a full season's worth of starter innings, and coming close only once - and he'll turn 31 midway through next season), who is going to get money to go to? I think the Jays may be the only ones dumb enough to throw him a $4-5M per for 2-3 year reliever deal (with incentives for appearances). And he'd be smart to take it.

 

I'll remember this post when he signs for someone else (unless we pick up the options for some reason). Time will tell which one of us is correct.

 

But you are so bright and educated that you probably have this all figured out.

[L54]

If they did a rebuild, I'd be looking to flip him to some team who might be possibly wow'ed by his tools and small sample performance to give you a meaningful piece in return.

 

I think part of the problem is that he's League'ish. He's got that sinker type fastball with velo and movement, and that's about it. Yes, the curve can work from time to time, but it's such a weird pitch (in comparison to his fastball) that I don't feel like it'll be meaningful for him as a starter. It's just a gimmick, really. And I don't think he'll be able to get that great secondary pitch to offset his fastball, again like League. So he'll be a bit of a pitch to contact one-trick pony. Hell, the other day when he pitched 2 innings, his fastball ticked down from 96-97 in the first inning, to 94-95. What's he going to do with that as a starter? Just be pretty blah is what he'll do.

 

That's if his control doesn't completely fail him. And there's a great likelihood of that.

 

Why would I make a comment just to be "I told you so?" That's a stupid suggestion. I like Hutch, long-term as a starter. I don't like Stroman long-term, as a starter. I don't like Sanchez, long-term, at all. Norris, I'm reserving judgment on (don't have enough info to process, and right now eye test and numbers aren't in synch). Who gives a crap about years from now? It seems like people are changing usernames every few days on here, so who the hell am I even going to say "I told you so" to? I'd like to be wrong about the guys I have a negative outlook on. I don't root for the Rayspists and get pleasure out of the Blue Jays sucking or being mediocre.

 

I did say retool, where you would keep the young players intact and roll with what you've got, somewhat like the Cubs are doing right now. I do believe that would be more fun to watch than the current group. That starts with trading Bautista which will never happen. All valid points, can't really disagree with any of them. I do think Stroman can stick in the rotation, along with Hutch. They could potentially fill the 2/3 slots on a good team. Right now I view them as solid 3/4's.

 

I guess my only issue is that I don't see the downside in trying him as a starter. If he fails, then you can relegate him to the pen. Until then, I would prefer to see him start in AAA as depth to start the next year.