Offseason roster thread 2014

[BTS]

I agree completely when lesser assets are Mitch Nay and Dwight Smith Jr. or something outright ridiculous. But Stroman is an elite asset by himself. Consider the fact that Sonny Gray ranked 31st on Dave Cameron's list of most valuable trade assets this season. At the time (July 15) these were Gray's career stats:

 

2.75 ERA

3.07 FIP

3.27 xFIP

189.2 innings (29 GS)

 

Stroman's stats since being moved to the rotation:

 

3.27 ERA

2.82 FIP

3.18 xFIP

118.1 innings (19 GS, 1 RP)

 

Those are fairly comparable stats and Stroman has an edge in age (1 year younger than Gray was at the time), so I think it's fair to say Stroman is arguably at the back end of the 30 most valuable trade assets in the game. Of course Donaldson ranked 17th, and would probably rank a couple spots higher now, so Stroman vs. Donaldson is a pretty easy call. But Pompey is arguably a top 50 prospect, no doubt top 100 prospect, who is close, and Lawrie is going to be a relatively cheap regular for the next three years with upside remaining. I actually didn't realize Donaldson was a Super-Two and had 4 years left, so that makes it a lot closer. But I still lean towards the Jays package. Like I said, it's probably a lateral move (or marginal upgrade at best) for 2015, and if the team is giving up future wins (which I'm not opposed to), it needs to be for a bigger 2015 swing. One other thing to consider as well; the Jays still have a chance to lock up Stroman to a team friendly deal and could do the same with Pompey eventually.

 

I think it's a moot point in practical terms though. Since Donaldson has 4 years of arb, I think it's much more likely they look to move him next offseason or the offseason after that. They can afford him for at least 2015 and he'd still be incredibly valuable with 3 or 2 years of arb control left.

 

We won't agree because we have very different perceptions of the value of guys like Stroman and Gray. I wouldn't even consider Stroman for my top-50 in terms of trade value, while Donaldson is likely top-15 .

[jayfan79]

It is an interesting question, isn't it? I think it's worth keeping in mind that those 4 arbitration years (especially the last 2) could be pretty damn expensive also (although still worth it).

 

If we had essentially an unlimited payroll, I'd say absolutely. If they stay healthy though (big if), those three guys might be capable of putting up 10+ WAR next year, at ~3M. We saw what happened this year when we were forced to plug a bunch of holes with scrubs. In some ways, I think we might be better off having multiple above average players than one star and a bunch of scrubs (yes I realize the two choices shouldn't be mutually exclusive, but they probably are given recent history).

 

Lot easier ways to fix team while not increasing much payroll.

 

Let the following players go: Rasmus, melky, Morrow, Janssen.

Trade Reyes and Buehrle to Dodgers for Justin Turner.

 

Sign Yasmani Tomas for 7 yrs 100 mm

Sign JJ Hardy 3 years 30 million

 

Spend all the remaining money on 2-3 Free agent Relievers/ closer.

 

Lineup:

 

Gose / Pompey

Bautista

Encarnacion

Lind

Tomas

Lawrie

Hardy

Navarro

Turner

 

Rotation

 

Dickey, Stroman, Hutch, Happ , Sanchez

 

Bullpen:

 

Loup, Cecil, Redmond, FA Pitcher 1 , FA pitcher 2, Graveman Nolin

 

Bench:

 

Valencia, Thole, Gose, Izturis.

 

If we still have any money left over,upgrade catcher position.

 

That is a better team,offensively , defensively and pitching wise, without trading away too much of the future.

 

 

 

 

 

Key to all this is being able to unload contracts of Reyes and Buehrle.

[BTS]

It is an interesting question, isn't it? I think it's worth keeping in mind that those 4 arbitration years (especially the last 2) could be pretty damn expensive also (although still worth it).

 

If we had essentially an unlimited payroll, I'd say absolutely. If they stay healthy though (big if), those three guys might be capable of putting up 10+ WAR next year, at ~3M. We saw what happened this year when we were forced to plug a bunch of holes with scrubs. In some ways, I think we might be better off having multiple above average players than one star and a bunch of scrubs (yes I realize the two choices shouldn't be mutually exclusive, but they probably are given recent history).

 

2-3 years ago I would have wanted to keep the kids and dream on the sexy $/WAR possibilities. Now? Give me the franchise player. I'm comfortable betting on attrition of guys like Lawrie/Pompey/Stroman, and if they're going to be league-average players, you can find that a lot easier than you can find a top-15 player.

[Abomination]

Lot easier ways to fix team while not increasing much payroll.

 

Of course there's other things that could be done with possible better result. The interesting debate was about the merits of giving up three young potentially high end guys for a controllable and still relatively cheap elite player.

[BTS]

Also, F. Torres: welcome to the board. You seem like a great addition.

[GD]

I think there are much easier ways to upgrade the team than trading Stroman + for Donaldson. I wouldn't do it simply because of that reason.

 

However, if we do those ways and it's still an option to push us over the top, it's something to consider. I think I'd do Lawrie or Stroman but not both. I don't think it would take that much regardless of if it's a good deal or not.

[F. Torres]

We won't agree because we have very different perceptions of the value of guys like Stroman and Gray. I wouldn't even consider Stroman for my top-50 in terms of trade value, while Donaldson is likely top-15 .

 

Fair enough. Like I said, I didn't realize Donaldson had 4 years of control left, so it's closer than I initially thought. Just (genuinely) curious though; what makes you say that about Stroman? Don't think he's a #2 going forward? I don't see anything particularly unsustainable about his performance other than HR/FB% (and even adjusting for that, an 84 xFIP- is still safely in the #2 starter range).

[F. Torres]

Also, F. Torres: welcome to the board. You seem like a great addition.

 

Appreciate it. This board seems like the last safe haven for rational Jays discussion after what went down this summer.

[BTS]

Fair enough. Like I said, I didn't realize Donaldson had 4 years of control left, so it's closer than I initially thought. Just (genuinely) curious though; what makes you say that about Stroman? Don't think he's a #2 going forward? I don't see anything particularly unsustainable about his performance other than HR/FB% (and even adjusting for that, an 84 xFIP- is still safely in the #2 starter range).

 

I don't dislike Stroman, I'm just not really into young pitchers as long-term assets. It wouldn't surprising to see 170 innings of 3.5 ERA ball next year, but it also wouldn't be surprising if he hits the wall a bit or his arm falls off.

[Atothe]

I don't dislike Stroman, I'm just not really into young pitchers as long-term assets. It wouldn't surprising to see 170 innings of 3.5 ERA ball next year, but it also wouldn't be surprising if he hits the wall a bit or his arm falls off.

 

So I'm assuming your reasoning is because you're looking to upgrade the 2015 roster to a playoff contender? Pompey could reasonably tilt that trade in favor to A's as soon next year if it were to happen. I don't like that at all regardless of the general distrust of young arms.

[BTS]

So I'm assuming your reasoning is because you're looking to upgrade the 2015 roster to a playoff contender? Pompey could reasonably tilt that trade in favor to A's as soon next if it were to happen. I don't like that at all regardless of the general distrust of young arms.

 

It just seems like, barring short-term rentals, every time a team trades 3-4 good young guys for an elite player, they win. At the time of the trade everyone talks about the great possibilities presented by 11ty seasons of team control, but it almost always turns out that the the team getting the elite talent wins the deal. Actually, it would be interesting to see examples of similar deals that went the other way. Say your criteria is:

 

- Team A moves 3+ arb seasons of a player reasonably projected at 3+ WAR at the time of the deal.

- Team B moves multiple assets that are less proven and have more team control

 

How many examples are there where team B regrets their decision?

[BTS]

Bedard for Jones, Tillman + off top of my head.

 

Should have had a 'no pitcher' qualifier. I wouldn't move the package for Donaldson's pitching equivalent, whoever that might be.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Lot easier ways to fix team while not increasing much payroll.

 

Let the following players go: Rasmus, melky, Morrow, Janssen.

Trade Reyes and Buehrle to Dodgers for Justin Turner.

 

Sign Yasmani Tomas for 7 yrs 100 mm

Sign JJ Hardy 3 years 30 million

 

Spend all the remaining money on 2-3 Free agent Relievers/ closer.

 

Lineup:

 

Gose / Pompey

Bautista

Encarnacion

Lind

Tomas

Lawrie

Hardy

Navarro

Turner

 

Rotation

 

Dickey, Stroman, Hutch, Happ , Sanchez

 

Bullpen:

 

Loup, Cecil, Redmond, FA Pitcher 1 , FA pitcher 2, Graveman Nolin

 

Bench:

 

Valencia, Thole, Gose, Izturis.

 

If we still have any money left over,upgrade catcher position.

 

That is a better team,offensively , defensively and pitching wise, without trading away too much of the future.

 

 

 

 

 

Key to all this is being able to unload contracts of Reyes and Buehrle.

 

 

If a pitcher gets traded trade Dickey and his platoon partner in that package first!

 

Mark can stay!

[jayfan79]

Bedard for Jones, Tillman + off top of my head.

 

Also...... Alvarez,Marisnick, etc. for Buehrle,reyes and Josh Johnson???? LOL

[BTS]

Also...... Alvarez,Marisnick, etc. for Buehrle,reyes and Josh Johnson???? LOL

 

Nope.

[jayfan79]

If a pitcher gets traded trade Dickey and his platoon partner in that package first!

 

Mark can stay!

 

I would trade Dickey and Thole too. Only problem is,other teams would likely value Buehrle more for the same reasons we would.

[Abomination]

It just seems like, barring short-term rentals, every time a team trades 3-4 good young guys for an elite player, they win. At the time of the trade everyone talks about the great possibilities presented by 11ty seasons of team control, but it almost always turns out that the the team getting the elite talent wins the deal. Actually, it would be interesting to see examples of similar deals that went the other way. Say your criteria is:

 

- Team A moves 3+ arb seasons of a player reasonably projected at 3+ WAR at the time of the deal.

- Team B moves multiple assets that are less proven and have more team control

 

How many examples are there where team B regrets their decision?

 

Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay to the Braves for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones?

[Abomination]

Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota to the Red Sox for Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Jesus Delgado and Harvey Garcia.

[BTS]

Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay to the Braves for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones?

 

1.5 years team control.

[Abomination]

1.5 years team control.

 

Ah, I missed that part of the question.

[nmrch]

haha, Tony Rasmus being a dick as usual

 

 

[burlingtonbandit]

I really don't see the As trading Donaldson this offseason unless its a massive upgrade in multiple areas. I didn't realize Donaldson had 4 years of control left so it is probably a deal that is pretty fair value wise but as someone mentioned earlier Oakland doesn't really have to move him. Is a team really going to give up a lot more value for 4 years left of control compared to 3 and even 2? When is the last time a position player star was moved with 4 years of Arb. left? Can't really think of a similar scenario.

[jays4life19]

I really don't see the As trading Donaldson this offseason unless its a massive upgrade in multiple areas. I didn't realize Donaldson had 4 years of control left so it is probably a deal that is pretty fair value wise but as someone mentioned earlier Oakland doesn't really have to move him. Is a team really going to give up a lot more value for 4 years left of control compared to 3 and even 2? When is the last time a position player star was moved with 4 years of Arb. left? Can't really think of a similar scenario.

 

He's about to get expensive and it kind of fits Billy's MO of trading players at their peak value. He could get a haul of cheap, controllable talent.

[F. Torres]

If a pitcher gets traded trade Dickey and his platoon partner in that package first!

 

Mark can stay!

 

I love Buehrle, but I'd move him if I could do it without taking on a terrible contract in return. It's very unlikely that he's as good as he was this season in 2015 and his $19 million can be put to better use (be it in free agency, trade, or a combination of the two).

[BTS]

haha, Tony Rasmus being a dick as usual

 

 

 

This is one of the first time he's actually sounded stupid though.

[glory]

Don't bring Happ back this year (or Melky, or Lind) ... Use available cash to get you another get starter over the next 4 years or so ...

 

Making that trade for Donaldson and then using freed up cash to sign someone like McCarthy would work for me. Still would need a 2B, but some defensive guy like Pennington would be serviceable since Donaldson is good enough to compensate a bit for that.

 

As far as Donaldson being available, it wouldn't go against Beane's history. He's traded guys like this before with their arby years remaining (3+ years).

[BTS]

My god that Justin Upton trade was awful. It's one of the only examples I can find of a very good position player traded pre-arb. There's also Josh Hamilton for Volquez

[LongTimeReader]

This is one of the first time he's actually sounded stupid though.

 

No it's not

[burlingtonbandit]

He's about to get expensive and it kind of fits Billy's MO of trading players at their peak value. He could get a haul of cheap, controllable talent.

 

I could see the argument of trading at peak value but is the haul really going to get a lot better trading him now compared to next offseason or the trade deadline in 2016?

[BTS]

No it's not

 

Examples? I haven't exactly looked for comments he's made, but I expected a trainwreck when Colby came over from St. Louis and have been surprised that Tony has seemed fairly reasonable and informed for the most part.