fWAR leader: Time to adjust the contributions of the defense

[Angrioter]

fWAR

1-Alex Gordon - 5.7

2-Mike Trout - 5.6

3-Giancarlo Stanton - 5.1

4-Josh Donaldson - 5.1

5-Robinson Cano -5.0

 

Time to adjust the contributions of the defense.

Edited August 18, 2014 by Angrioter

[TheHurl]

So when it doesn't fit into what your eye sees, it should be adjusted? Trout is not doing well in the field this year according to the metrics...same with Cutch. Got to believe it's true, I don't watch their games.

[HERPDERP]

and this was a guy who came up as a 3b

[Angrioter]

What exactly is your argument here...?? Alex Gordon is not deserving?

 

I don't think Gordon (126 wRC+) has contributed more than Trout (165 wRC+)

[reedjohnsonfan]

It's not believable that Alex Gordon has been the best player in the league this year.

[TheHurl]

it's partially the baserunning too.

[G-Snarls]

I don't think Gordon (126 wRC+) has contributed more than Trout (165 wRC+)

 

Don't worry. The baseball writers will finally give him an MVP this year, when he DOESN'T lead the league in WAR. There's some fun irony there.

[Slot Machine]

Don't worry. The baseball writers will finally give him an MVP this year, when he DOESN'T lead the league in WAR. There's some fun irony there.

 

LOL. Yep. And its too bad since this year is probably Gordon's only shot at it. Reminds me a lot of Zobrist's 2009 season.

[Nox]

It's not believable that Alex Gordon has been the best player in the league this year.

 

Well, he's not.

 

This all goes back the point that using WAR retrospectively is pretty dumb. We're applying the WAR valuation framework to a past set of events that are a combination of skill and random variation.

 

It makes much more sense to apply the framework to a set of expected events driven by a player's true talent (ie luck teased out of the equation the best that we can do). If you do that right now, Trout is a much better player than Gordon/anyone.

[BTS]

Don't worry. The baseball writers will finally give him an MVP this year, when he DOESN'T lead the league in WAR. There's some fun irony there.

 

King Felix will be taking it this year.

[HERPDERP]

From what I read a few weeks back, Gordon has made almost all of the plays that the average left fielder should have made. He has also the best out chance for extremely tough plays that the average LF should not get.

 

So perhaps it's another case of positioning that is overvaluing out chances (i.e. Gordon shifts to his right whenever Bautista/E5 comes up)

 

edit: heres the article

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/8/8/5983283/alex-gordon-is-having-a-defensive-season-for-the-ages-elite-left-fielder

[theblujay]

Well, he's not.

 

This all goes back the point that using WAR retrospectively is pretty dumb. We're applying the WAR valuation framework to a past set of events that are a combination of skill and random variation.

 

It makes much more sense to apply the framework to a set of expected events driven by a player's true talent (ie luck teased out of the equation the best that we can do). If you do that right now, Trout is a much better player than Gordon/anyone.

 

Lol. We're looking at what happened, not what should have happened based on true talent.

[BTS]

Trout is heavier than he was when he came up, he's stealing bases at about 30% the rate he did previously, and his base running value is down about 10 runs. It's not inconceivable that his defense is also down by 10 runs or so.

[GD]

We should have BTS run a regression.

[BTS]

What does base running have to do with defensive WAR?

 

Speed. If his base running ability has declined significantly, it wouldn't be surprising that he's lost a step or two in the OF as well.

[burlingtonbandit]

Trout put on some weight to increase his power but by doing so actually decreased his overall value since he lost speed. Doesn't really mean much though for him since he already signed his contract.

[BTS]

He's 23 he should be improving defensively if anything.

 

That isn't what's happening though.

[Atothe]

This is to be expected, history says that a player peaks defensively at an earlier age unless you're an historically great defender ala brooks Robinson or Ozzie smith. Btw I agree with you BTS, I think King Felix might win the MVP this year.

[BTS]

Not according to defensive metrics.

 

What very well could be happening is that he's been around the league a couple years and has simply learned to position himself better. Does that make him a worse defender? By the metrics yes, in reality he's probably better now than before.

 

Huh?

 

What's most likely happening is that he's not as fast as he was when he was lighter, and his defense and baserunning have suffered because of it.

[theblujay]

I never thought I would see the day when the gang said something bad about Mike Trout.

[Angrioter]

Defense

Big Papi -11.8

Cutchen -9.0

Mike Trout -6.8

 

WTFIGO

[jays4life19]

How long does it take for UZR to stabilize anyways?

 

Ive heard different answers but i thought it was 3 years?

[Angrioter]

How long does it take for UZR to stabilize anyways?

 

Ive heard different answers but i thought it was 3 years?

 

 

about 400-500 games?

[Atothe]

Did Rasmus put on weight too? Hutch? It's pretty tough to believe a few pounds slowed Trout down so much that he went from the best defender around to replacement level. You stick to that though.

 

He wasn't the best defender though, he had one outstanding defensive year. Outlier

[burlingtonbandit]

How long does it take for UZR to stabilize anyways?

 

Ive heard different answers but i thought it was 3 years?

 

His DRS have also decreased though so I think you could say there is definitely a drop off. His baserunning is also way down.

[jays4life19]

His DRS have also decreased though so I think you could say there is definitely a drop off. His baserunning is also way down.

 

oh i agree.

 

I didn't mean to suggest that Trout's defense has not declined. More just a general question.

[HERPDERP]

Just remember that we're talking about a guy who has declined into 2nd place. It's nothing to be alarmed about. He's still a premium player - it's not like he's done a complete 180

[Nox]

How long does it take for UZR to stabilize anyways?

 

Ive heard different answers but i thought it was 3 years?

 

An almost identical amount of time as any offensive rate stat that involves a ball in play (ie not one of the "3 true outcomes", not that I like that term).

[Nox]

Lol. We're looking at what happened, not what should have happened based on true talent.

 

 

I'm talking about what happened too. Measured past events are talent + some degree of random variation. WAR(talent + random variation) is pretty stupid as putting a value on a large chunk of randomness is retarded.

 

I don't care what your MVP criteria is. I'm just saying that WAR used retrospectively is a misapplication of it.

[theblujay]

I'm talking about what happened too. Measured past events are talent + some degree of random variation. WAR(talent + random variation) is pretty stupid as putting a value on a large chunk of randomness is retarded.

 

I don't care what your MVP criteria is. I'm just saying that WAR used retrospectively is a misapplication of it.

 

Well if it's not predictive then how are you supposed to use it if not retrospectively