North, the bully, destroyed Wilner thread

[GD]

Only if you think the sample is completely worthless until it reaches that number. I would argue it's useful around 500 PA, but gets more accurate as time goes on.

 

You should read The Book.

 

I like NJH using Chris Getz to illustrate the expected regression of an apparent reverse-split lefty ... one who went out and, in a very small sample, raked the s*** out of lefties yet again, and struggled, yet again, against RHP. Alas, Mr. Getz hung up his cleats before he could continue on holding his finger up to expected regression. Perhaps Getz was pressured by Tango et al, to give it up before something bad befell him?

 

You don't mean in the major leagues, do you? Getz went 0-7 against lefties in the MLB.

[GD]

Adjusted my post to indicate reference to his MiLB numbers before you posted this.

 

Where did you find MiLB splits?

[Nexii]

I've wondered if there's a an advanced metric for batters analogous to TIPS for pitchers that looks at per pitch outcomes. Something like that might regress better for batter projections (like platooning) than looking at AB outcomes? Or at least for small sample sizes perhaps

[GD]

I've wondered if there's a an advanced metric for batters analogous to TIPS for pitchers that looks at per pitch outcomes. Something like that might regress better for batter projections (like platooning) than looking at AB outcomes? Or at least for small sample sizes perhaps

 

I plan on doing this after the season but it probably won't be much good lol. JFaS usually has something brewing, and Abomination might.

[GD]

ouch.

[John_Havok]

Because his major league sample size is fairly small, But based on that sample you would expect him to hit lefties better than righties. If he regresses to a .340wOBA he would still be useful against lefties.

 

Which would then seem to indicate that expecting lower numbers than his prior stats would suggest, because it's based on a small sample size would seem pretty smart... Correct? That's basically what you just said so I assume you would agree

[Gorlak]

Which would then seem to indicate that expecting lower numbers than his prior stats would suggest, because it's based on a small sample size would seem pretty smart... Correct? That's basically what you just said so I assume you would agree

 

I would consider it common sense, I don't know who thinks he will continue this years slash line vs lefties.

[John_Havok]

I would consider it common sense, I don't know who thinks he will continue this years slash line vs lefties.

 

The why did you state earlier in the thread "He's no sure bet to mash lefties, But arguing that because of regression he can't is much more stupid," when You're basically agreeing with the principle of regression?

[Gorlak]

The why did you state earlier in the thread "He's no sure bet to mash lefties, But arguing that because of regression he can't is much more stupid," when You're basically agreeing with the principle of regression?

 

I never implied I didn't believe in regression, actually the opposite. But regression doesn't necessarily mean playing worse, It just means returning to what is closer to the players true talent. Buerhle pitching well in the first half doesn't make it more likely he's bad in the second half, He would be expected to pitch his true talent the second half. Betting Valencia can't hit lefties would imply you think his entire sample is a fluke, which is possible, but not likely. The question is what's the difference between the sample and his true talent.

[Olerud363]

I never implied I didn't believe in regression, actually the opposite. But regression doesn't necessarily mean playing worse, It just means returning to what is closer to the players true talent. Buerhle pitching well in the first half doesn't make it more likely he's bad in the second half, He would be expected to pitch his true talent the second half. Betting Valencia can't hit lefties would imply you think his entire sample is a fluke, which is possible, but not likely. The question is what's the difference between the sample and his true talent.

 

Yes. And that is what the formula is supposed to tell you.

 

The only thing I disagree with is the way that lefthanded hitters and right handed hitters are handled differently.

 

For righties you need twice as many at bats to make a conclusion about the split... this is because righties apparently have less of a platoon split. but I don't know if they considered the fact that righties who have a platoon split and don't mash are not in the sample.

[Nox]

Yes. And that is what the formula is supposed to tell you.

 

The only thing I disagree with is the way that lefthanded hitters and right handed hitters are handled differently.

 

For righties you need twice as many at bats to make a conclusion about the split... this is because righties apparently have less of a platoon split. but I don't know if they considered the fact that righties who have a platoon split and don't mash are not in the sample.

 

There probably is a some survivorship bias here.

[Boxcar]

I was thinking the other day... listening to Jeff Blair, butcher his analysis of the Marlins/Jays trade. The blog should focus on some of the garbage fan 590 hosts and other popular media write or say about the Jays. It would become a go to blog for Toronto media looking to see fellow media members get bashed.

 

I actually think having a dedicated section to calling out dumbass Toronto media (and Christ knows there's enough of them to keep someone busy for awhile) is a great idea. Mods probably disagree though, they'd rather not stir s***. Pussies.

[GD]

We've already stirred s*** with Stoeten, what could a little bit more do?

[KingKat]

We've already stirred s*** with Stoeten, what could a little bit more do?

 

He's also been supportive of the blog for the most part.

[GD]

He's also been supportive of the blog for the most part.

 

Well, the thoughts on there are a bit more coherent lol.

 

I posted the Kratz/Valencia article this morning.

[KingKat]

Well, the thoughts on there are a bit more coherent lol.

 

I posted the Kratz/Valencia article this morning.

 

Didn't come up in my feedly... Maybe there's an RSS issue.

[GD]

Didn't come up in my feedly...

 

Nor in mine. Weird. But it is active on the main page of the site. Maybe there's a delay of some sort.

[KingKat]

Nor in mine. Weird. But it is active on the main page of the site. Maybe there's a delay of some sort.

 

It's something worth monitoring. The blog hasn't been active in months so there's no way people are going to just go to the home page. It needs to come up in feeds.

[KingKat]

Nor in mine. Weird. But it is active on the main page of the site. Maybe there's a delay of some sort.

 

Good article btw. I like how you take your time with the concepts. Instead of the blog thread, this article is what should be brought to Kratz's twitter people's attention.

[Caper]

I actually think having a dedicated section to calling out dumbass Toronto media (and Christ knows there's enough of them to keep someone busy for awhile) is a great idea. Mods probably disagree though, they'd rather not stir s***. Pussies.

 

I was going to start the topic the other day when a Jays talk caller freaked out over not having JPA on the team. I couldn't believe it. The caller only cared about RBI's and homers. I was going to post the call it was that funny. I don't think JPA has missed a ball since.

[KingKat]

Good article btw. I like how you take your time with the concepts. Instead of the blog thread, this article is what should be brought to Kratz's twitter people's attention.

 

Forgot to mention that I also liked how the conclusion wasn't heavy handed.

[Sorrow]

Really solid article. It's a shame that SABR and advanced metrics aren't overly popular with Toronto sports fans (much less baseball).

[Angrioter]