North, the bully, destroyed Wilner thread

[Angrioter]

Because, the good s*** deserve to be shared.

Read and learn bitch!!

 

http://i.imgur.com/nUqwzhv.png

http://i.imgur.com/MTqZZVA.png

http://i.imgur.com/Ie8n7KM.png

http://i.imgur.com/KALoNPu.png

http://i.imgur.com/9SCh43V.png

[Olerud363]

?? A little trouble following this?? How do you regress platoon splits?? I understand ofcourse that large sample size is good.

 

I've done projects trying to evaluate such and such. So I understand what regress means in a technical sense. But if you go to someone and say "you need to regress the data" they don't understand what the hell you are talking about and you will lose them. If you say, you only had 10, you need atleast 400. Then they will get it.

 

His career stats vs. lefties are off the charts. At least if I am reading the fangraphs page correctly. .333 .369 .510?? So Wilner is right. He just should of used career stats instead of the small sample size. And the guy arguing with him should of said "Look at the career data!!".

[Angrioter]

One of the most common sabermetric faux pas is the misinterpretation of a player’s platoon splits. It is very common for fans to simply look at a player’s splits from last season, or the last couple of seasons, and form an opinion on that player’s platoon skills based on that information.

Even the statistically baptized can sometimes be found committing this sin. Someone who has read Moneyball and The Extra 2% might go looking for advantageous platoons on their favourite team’s depth chart which would give their squad a slight edge if implemented on the field. Here’s are a couple of illustrative Blue Jays examples.

The switch hitting Dioner Navarro has pretty big wOBA split in his career – .339 vs. LHP and just .288 vs. RHP. Josh Thole, a left handed hitter, has hit right handed pitching a bit better than Navarro, holding a career wOBA of .298 against pitching from that side. And despite being a right handed hitter, Eric Kratz has a pretty big negative career batting split, having hit righties to the tune of a .307 wOBA in his career (vs. just .254 against LHP). Should it be an obvious decision to platoon Navarro with Kratz or Thole? In order to answer that, we need to properly regress these platoon splits!...............................................

Required reading

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/01/16/blue-jays-true-talent-offensive-platoon-splits/

[Olerud363]

And just to clarify

 

.900 ops in 100 at bats -- who the hell knows how good he really is.

.900 ops in 500 at bats -- He is probably decent, but not enough evidence to say he is truly a .900 OPS guy.

.900 ops in 2500 at bats -- at this point he is very likely a .900 OPS guy.

 

Now in this case it will take a while to accumulate 2500 at bats against lefties. But another piece of evidence is putrid performance against righties. There is some correaltion, guys don't ussually have that big of a platoon split. So it indicates the lefty platoon data may not be accurate.

[Olerud363]

Required reading

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/01/16/blue-jays-true-talent-offensive-platoon-splits/

 

I'm actually not big on that kind of stuff. Just don't that much time to absorb it. My philosaphy (as I mentioned in the post above)

 

100 at bats - who the hell knows

500 at bats - maybe

2500 at bats - now I trust it

 

But it becomes hard to get 2500 at bats for obscure splits.

[Olerud363]

Required reading

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/01/1...latoon-splits/

 

But another piece of evidence is putrid performance against righties. There is some correaltion, guys don't ussually have that big of a platoon split. So it indicates the lefty platoon data may not be accurate.

 

I'm just not sure there is ever a huge need to go to advanced stats... they give a slight advantage. But the big thing is just understanding the concepts. I think it is possible to explain these things in one sentence.

[Angrioter]

I'm actually not big on that kind of stuff. Just don't that much time to absorb it. My philosaphy (as I mentioned in the post above)

 

100 at bats - who the hell knows

500 at bats - maybe

2500 at bats - now I trust it

 

But it becomes hard to get 2500 at bats for obscure splits.

 

I respect your criteria, but do not share it.

 

Valencia can't maintain "Barry Bonds" line forever.

[Sammy225]

What a dick I am going to unfollow lol.

[GD]

You just add on a few thousand league average level PA's, Olerud. It's in Tango's book.

[Caper]

I think most people understand that when you lose a gas can starting pitcher and a 35 year old journeyman catcher.... You are not getting Barry Bonds in return. Most people know what this is.

[Olerud363]

I respect your criteria, but do not share it.

 

Valencia can't maintain "Barry Bonds" line forever.

 

I think we agree... I said if he did it over 2500 at bats I'd believe. 500 I'll say maybe... that doesn't mean I think he'll be Barry Bonds against lefties... just that I start paying attention. At 70 at bats I don't even care.

[Nox]

I think we agree... I said if he did it over 2500 at bats I'd believe. 500 I'll say maybe... that doesn't mean I think he'll be Barry Bonds against lefties... just that I start paying attention. At 70 at bats I don't even care.

 

You're vastly overestimating platoon skill for a RHB vs LHP if these are your rules of thumb.

[Governator]

Total cost: $0

 

If you're so pissed that he didn't post regressed platoon stats while probably eating a hot dog on the road in Boston why didn't you just do the calculation and post it, or is it actually half decent against LHP? I still don't know what his regressed platoon stat is after reading this thread & the link posted.

[BTS]

The best part of all of this is that there is a DDL/BBDL twitter account.

[GD]

He used to have the scoop on quite a bit, too.

[Sammy225]

The best part of all of this is that there is a DDL/BBDL twitter account.

 

They don't post many rumors though

[Terminator]

Total cost: $0

 

If you're so pissed that he didn't post regressed platoon stats while probably eating a hot dog on the road in Boston why didn't you just do the calculation and post it, or is it actually half decent against LHP? I still don't know what his regressed platoon stat is after reading this thread & the link posted.

 

I posted it in another thread. Valencia's projected to be about a .330-.335 wOBA hitter against lefties from here on out.

[Angrioter]

I wasn't trying to be a bully lol, just wanted to prevent Wilner from making the mistake of referencing the splits across the Rogers network. He says his job is to inform the fanbase. Oh well.

 

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view6/2165613/bully-gets-dropped-o.gif

[NorthOf49]

They don't post many rumors though

Yeah I should start posting more rumours. The Greinke sweepstakes are a great opportunity.

[Sammy225]

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view6/2165613/bully-gets-dropped-o.gif

 

I love watching Boxy and BTS fight

[Olerud363]

You're vastly overestimating platoon skill for a RHB vs LHP if these are your rules of thumb.

 

If he amassed 2500 plate appearances against lefties you still wouldn't believe the split?? I'm not talking just 2500 plate appearances "overall", but 7000 or 8000 or whatever overall and 2500 against lefties. So we are talking a complete career for a very good player basically.

 

If he amassed 2500 plate appearances and hit .330 .370 .500 against lefties I'd beleive it.

 

If that happened he wouldn't hit .220 against righties... that;s the number that would normallize. He'd hit .280 or something against righties.

[Angrioter]

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view6/2165613/bully-gets-dropped-o.gif

 

Btw

North, Wilner think that you're the skinny guy!!

 

http://static1.gamespot.com/uploads/original/478/4781920/2590386-8942029321-gif_j.gif

[Nox]

If he amassed 2500 plate appearances against lefties you still wouldn't believe the split?? I'm not talking just 2500 plate appearances "overall", but 7000 or 8000 or whatever overall and 2500 against lefties. So we are talking a complete career for a very good player basically.

 

If he amassed 2500 plate appearances and hit .330 .370 .500 against lefties I'd beleive it.

 

If that happened he wouldn't hit .220 against righties... that;s the number that would normallize. He'd hit .280 or something against righties.

 

Just read the article man. 2200 PAs of observed performance would get you to 50% of your projected platoon skill going forward.

 

So at 2500 PAs I'd believe that he does have a platoon split but I wouldn't label him a .330/.370/.500 hitter against LHP going forward either. We should expect something less "mashy" than that.

[Olerud363]

You're vastly overestimating platoon skill for a RHB vs LHP if these are your rules of thumb.

 

David Wright splits vs. lefties?? Do you believe it or do they need to be regressed?? I'd buy that he has to be regressed a bit. But he's not at 2500 plate appearances vs. lefties yet. Most players will never get there.

[Angrioter]

I love watching Boxy and BTS fight

 

I don't think so!!

The obesity rate in Asia is low. BTS is a Rays Mexican fan from Boca Raton Florida.

[Caper]

I wasn't trying to be a bully lol, just wanted to prevent Wilner from making the mistake of referencing the splits across the Rogers network. He says his job is to inform the fanbase. Oh well.

 

If you want to continue doing gods work, please go after Blair on his analysis of the Jays Marlins trade. He argued passionately with a fan.... maybe last Friday on air. Man was it awful analysis.

[Olerud363]

You need 2200 to regress 50% to the mean. Valencia around 113 wRC+ vs. L.

 

This assumes that you believe the 2200 number. Why do righties have less variation?? It may be because righties with large splits are eliminated from the population while lefties are not.

 

A righty who hits .220/.280 won't ever be in the population, while a lefty might. So only good guys like David Wright (.280 .340) make it.

[GD]

http://i.imgur.com/9SCh43V.png

 

I JUST CHECKED AND SOMEONE FROM MY SCHOOL FAVORITED THIS TWEET HAHAHAHAHAHA

 

Dude knows jack s*** and he's just eating it up. This is what Wilner's doing. Misinforming the masses.

[Atothe]

Well North I'm glad that smug ass got his ass shut down

[TheHurl]

I don't think so!!

The obesity rate in Asia is low. BTS is a Rays Mexican fan from Boca Raton Florida.

 

Maybe Boxy was the original bully, as we know all West Mexicans are fatties.