What is Lawries offensive ceiling?

[Olerud363]

You're aware that Beltre was playing in Seattle at that time (AKA the place where literally nobody can hit well), correct?

 

I am aware that he was playing in Seattle. I wasn't aware that literally nobody hit well there. Ichiro hit .370 and set an all time hits record and won some batting titles. Boone and Edgar Martinez and John Olerud had good years. A-Rod propelled hit lifetime earnings towards 1/2 a billion with a good year there. They've had bad teams the last few years, which when combined with the park makes the effect seem more dramatic.

 

The park dings guys by 10% or so... 5% assuming they hit fine on the road. So a guy with 200 hits will get 190, that kind of thing.

 

Advanced stats come in handy here. Fangraphs have Beltres wRC+ hovering between 90-110 in his first 5 LA years. Up to 161 in the big LA year. Between 90 and 110 in his Seattle years. Between 135 and 142 in his Boston/Texas years. As far as I can see the pattern holds even factoring in the Seattle park factor.

[BigCecil]

Lawrie has now played 60% of the games in his career. 2 oblique strains in 2 seasons?!

 

Consistent strains and other issues. Jumps at the ball so his hands are hit fairly often.

 

He looks like one of those guys who will never realize his offensive potential as he cant stay in the line up. Still young but the issue is concerning.

 

Makes me appreciate Melkman more for playing in 118 gms this year.

[BigCecil]

Bumping my old thread from last year because it was an excruciatingly long off day and Lawrie is on his way back today.

 

Reading the comments so far people are spot on.

[HERPDERP]

There is still time for him to break out. He has untapped power potential - not sure if you guys saw his deep bomb to the CF suites in O.Co last week. Could be a late bloomer like JD

[BigCecil]

There is still time for him to break out. He has untapped power potential - not sure if you guys saw his deep bomb to the CF suites in O.Co last week. Could be a late bloomer like JD

 

http://www.thescore.com/news/805959 This one?

 

JD and Jose B changed their swing dramatically. I have not seen Lawrie willing to make significant swing adjustments since he came up on a tear in 2011. He still has a lot of arm/hand movement and can jump at the ball.

[Spanky99]

http://www.thescore.com/news/805959 This one?

 

JD and Jose B changed their swing dramatically. I have not seen Lawrie willing to make significant swing adjustments since he came up on a tear in 2011. He still has a lot of arm/hand movement and can jump at the ball.

 

If he doesn't quiet it down, I can't see him reaching his ceiling. Still a good ballplayer, but...

[gruber92]

With the way he moves his hands around in his approach, he's already reached his ceiling.

[JFD]

Half of Josh f***n Donaldson is his ceiling.

[FrozenRopes]

Half of Josh f***n Donaldson is his ceiling.

 

Half of half.

[Brownie19]

There are always semantical questions with this question. Ceiling is by definition the highest level he could reach.

 

Is he going to be Ted Williams?? No. Could he struggle about so/so for many years and all of a sudden go nuts at 29 and have a great 30s?? Sure. We're watching Bautista and EE do it.

 

His ceiling is still Adrian Beltre. He is actually very similiar to Beltre. Beltre had similar numbers (with better health) through age 24. Exploded on the league at 25 with an MVP like year. Then went back to being so/so (with WAR boosted by D) for 5 or 6 years.

 

Then all of a sudden at 31 he puts up a run of real nice seasons.

 

This actually isn't a bad comparison. Beltre found his groove at the plate as he matured (age 31) and when on an amazing streak which might get him to 3,000 hits and should get him into the HOF. Lawrie and the Seattle version of Beltre are very similar IMO (excluding health of course).

 

Olerud really brought his A game to this thread IMO. The Ichiro, Edgar, A-rod post was gold, although he lost points for forgetting Ken Griffey and Jay Buhner....man - the 1996 lineup with Edgar, Griffey, Arod and Buhner was a fearsome 4 back in the day.

 

Griffey wRC+ of 146, 9.7 WAR

Arod wRC+ of 159, 9.2 WAR

Martinez wRC+ of 163, 5.9 WAR

Buhner wRC+ of 127, 3.7 WAR (44 hr, 138 RBI)

[GD]

Half of half.

 

Colloquially referred to as a quarter