Official Fantasy Baseball Advice Thread

[L54]

Movie take two lol

 

I’m busy recruiting

[Laika]

Way too many pieces

 

If I’m trading Mookie I want the package to be something like Corbin Carroll + Dylan Cease

 

Or

 

Cedric Mullins + Spencer Strider

 

Something like that

 

Exactly

 

Vaughn could be an acceptable secondary piece if paired with an elite prospect.

[Laika]

Does anything Tork did in college factor into projections? I assume not?

 

I don't know. ZiPS is hidden in a black box. I don't think Steamer includes any college data.

[FantasyNewb]

Exactly

 

Vaughn could be an acceptable secondary piece if paired with an elite prospect.

 

Would Eury Perez be in that category for you?

[connorp]

Way too many pieces

 

If I’m trading Mookie I want the package to be something like Corbin Carroll + Dylan Cease

 

Or

 

Cedric Mullins + Spencer Strider

 

Something like that

 

I like this subtle Jim move. Quietly pump up the Mullins stock a little

[Laika]

Would Eury Perez be in that category for you?

 

Damn. I hate pitchers, but I guess so.

 

I'd still try to get a better piece than Vaughn.

 

Eury Perez + another stud might be good enough though

[L54]

Why not just keep Betts?

[FantasyNewb]

Damn. I hate pitchers, but I guess so.

 

I'd still try to get a better piece than Vaughn.

 

Eury Perez + another stud might be good enough though

 

Ok, thanks. I haven't made a huge counter offer yet, but he has Baz as well. I know he had TJS but my team won't be competitive this season. Like I said, I'm guessing it will take a couple years before I compete. What if I propose a Baz, Eury Perez, Vaughan, Springs (or Bello) package for Betts?

 

Sorry for all the questions. I had a set back with my health so I'm trying to distract myself.

[FantasyNewb]

Why not just keep Betts?

 

My team is absolute s*** and I won't compete until Betts is 33 or 34. He's my best asset right now so I'm trying to build young depth for the future.

[L54]

I like this subtle Jim move. Quietly pump up the Mullins stock a little

 

I can never find good CF so not too eager to move him anywhere

 

Was just trying to think of mid range players and pair them with good young SP’s

 

Jazz Chisholm or Dansby Swanson would work too

[L54]

My team is absolute s*** and I won't compete until Betts is 33 or 34. He's my best asset right now so I'm trying to build young depth for the future.

 

Ah okay that makes perfect sense

 

Post his roster

[Carlos Danger]

I like this subtle Jim move. Quietly pump up the Mullins stock a little

 

I have tried to pry CFs from L54 before... Not happening... It's like trying to take cake from a fat kid;)

[Laika]

Ok, thanks. I haven't made a huge counter offer yet, but he has Baz as well. I know he had TJS but my team won't be competitive this season. Like I said, I'm guessing it will take a couple years before I compete. What if I propose a Baz, Eury Perez, Vaughan, Springs (or Bello) package for Betts?

 

Sorry for all the questions. I had a set back with my health so I'm trying to distract myself.

 

I'd do that. Springs interests me more than Bello FWIW.

[FantasyNewb]

I took over the team last year (it was the last place team) and this is my top pitchers at the moment.

 

McCullers

Lodolo

Eduardo Rodriguez

Eric Lauer

Sixto Sanchez

Devin Williams

Ryan Helsley

 

And I don't have a 1st baseman as Muncy and Schwarber lost eligibility.

 

So hard to dig myself out of this hole without making a trade and he's my best asset right now.

[FantasyNewb]

I'd do that. Springs interests me more than Bello FWIW.

 

Awesome! Thanks. I'll propose the trade and see what he comes back with.

[FantasyNewb]

I'd do that. Springs interests me more than Bello FWIW.

 

I might try and squeeze one more prospect out of him. Would you do Bobby Miller or Brett Baty?

[L54]

I have tried to pry CFs from L54 before... Not happening... It's like trying to take cake from a fat kid;)

 

They’re so damn hard to get ahold of lol

[Laika]

I might try and squeeze one more prospect out of him. Would you do Bobby Miller or Brett Baty?

 

Oh Brett Baty for sure. His projections are great.

[FantasyNewb]

Oh Brett Baty for sure. His projections are great.

 

Awesome! Thanks for all the help.

[connorp]

Oh Brett Baty for sure. His projections are great.

 

Projections for say him and Casas 125 wRC+ seem optimistic. I’m not second guessing the whole model as I dont know much about the workings…but like how often does a guy with this numbers come along and put up a 130 wRC first year say, vs all the guys that flame out and such. You’d think when you jammed it all in a computer, the numbers wouldn’t come out so high.

[Laika]

Projections for say him and Casas 125 wRC+ seem optimistic. I’m not second guessing the whole model as I dont know much about the workings…but like how often does a guy with this numbers come along and put up a 130 wRC first year say, vs all the guys that flame out and such. You’d think when you jammed it all in a computer, the numbers wouldn’t come out so high.

 

Yet they do

 

You should ask why and re-examine how you think about players

[connorp]

Yet they do

 

You should ask why and re-examine how you think about players

 

What happened to the BatX one? That gets added later? I think I remember that one being a little more conservative with prospects…and I think I remember you saying it was the most accurate in hindsight

[Laika]

What happened to the BatX one? That gets added later? I think I remember that one being a little more conservative with prospects…and I think I remember you saying it was the most accurate in hindsight

 

Yeah I don’t know when they come out

 

There is The Bat and The Bat X

 

The Bat X is kind of the most forward thinking… incorporates new types of data. It’s experimental basically.

[FantasyNewb]

I didn't even think of Senga being available in the draft. I decided to go with Painter and Grissom as the first 2 picks. Would Senga replace any of those guys in your mind?

[BTS]

I didn't even think of Senga being available in the draft. I decided to go with Painter and Grissom as the first 2 picks. Would Senga replace any of those guys in your mind?

 

Maybe Senga over Painter if I was trying to win in 2023.

[FantasyNewb]

Maybe Senga over Painter if I was trying to win in 2023.

 

Thanks. Yeah, I'm in win-now mode, but currently my number 5, 6, 7 SP are Dustin May, Peralta, and Grayson Rodriguez to start the year. So there's risk there, as well, G. Rod might not start immediately. My hitting side is much stronger.

[FantasyNewb]

Maybe Senga over Painter if I was trying to win in 2023.

 

How relevant is max exit velocity in evaluating a player over a 41 game sample? Grissom was in the bottom 29 percent in max exit velocity. Does his other abilities overshadow this...or is it too small of a sample to be concerned. His sprint speed isn't even overly high. Just not sure what weight should be placed on that at this point.

[Laika]

How relevant is max exit velocity in evaluating a player over a 41 game sample? Grissom was in the bottom 29 percent in max exit velocity. Does his other abilities overshadow this...or is it too small of a sample to be concerned. His sprint speed isn't even overly high. Just not sure what weight should be placed on that at this point.

 

It’s relevant. Most players show their true max EV by then. Or at least 95% of it.

 

Grissom is weird. He might have a noodle arm and be a 2B and he might not have good pop. Not a slam dunk fantasy stud by any means. Like he could be a 20/30 player or he could be a 10/20 guy who struggles for real life playing time

[FantasyNewb]

ItÂ’s relevant. Most players show their true max EV by then. Or at least 95% of it.

 

Grissom is weird. He might have a noodle arm and be a 2B and he might not have good pop. Not a slam dunk fantasy stud by any means. Like he could be a 20/30 player or he could be a 10/20 guy who struggles for real life playing time

 

Yeah, I wasn't sure how to read it. I see him so high on Dynasty lists and don't know why he's ranked to the level he is, with some of those red flags. A lot of players have a great first 50 games starting out and then not live up to the same level (Brett Lawrie). So was wondering if the high ranking is based on the underlying stats or some other reason.

[Laika]

Yeah, I wasn't sure how to read it. I see him so high on Dynasty lists and don't know why he's ranked to the level he is, with some of those red flags. A lot of players have a great first 50 games starting out and then not live up to the same level (Brett Lawrie). So was wondering if the high ranking is based on the underlying stats or some other reason.

 

I think some heavy recency bias since he’s following Strider and Harris. People just assuming Atlanta can do no wrong.

 

But Grissom is a clear tier below them, he’s like that Tampa Bay 2B prospect right now I forget his name wtf is it.

 

Brujan