Official Fantasy Baseball Advice Thread

[Terminator]

It's an 18 player keeper league. He really needs SP and he's a Giants fan so I might try and sweeten the pot with both Aaron Sanchez and Alex Wood and see if I can get an OF back from him.

[Laika]

It's the opposite for me. I think Gleyber is far more valuable IRL as a MIF - even a poor defensive one - while being younger and less injury prone (I think?). Meadows has an extensive injury history going back to his minor league career and he's basically a DH. I'd lean Gleyber for those reasons alone but I think it's close as well. If this is a redraft though I might take the Meadows side for this year.

 

I meant better hitter IRL. I think Meadows is a full rung above Gleyber in terms of pure offensive talent. Mostly looking at the EV and barrel rates.

 

I know the projection systems love Gleyber's age and 2018-2019 production but I think if he's a .340 wOBA hitter the Yankees are very happy while I think Meadows could settle in as a .360+ guy.

[BlueRocky]

14 team league. I got offered Gleyber Torres for Austin Meadows.

 

If I do this I'll have to expand the deal somewhat so I might come back to that but before I explore this any further I'm wondering if this base deal is good value. Torres' statcast page is pretty scary.

 

I rather Meadows here.

 

Couple things to take into consideration:

- Torres might not be a shortstop long term, his glove is just awful. Even worst than Bichette.

- If he’s not a SS, he’s a very poor fit for the current version of NYY. They’re already committed to DJ long term at 2B, which kinda makes you wonder where Torres plays defensively. They have better options at 3B.

- His hit tool shades average to below average, his saving grace is his walk rate. Not my favorite profile on a premium dynasty asset.

- Agree with Laika, Meadows is more likely to contribute premium offensive numbers, though Torres has a higher ceiling it’s less likely he’ll reach that perennial 35-40 HR mark he showed in 2019. If you’re getting non-SS 25 HR ver Torres moving forward I rather keep Meadows.

Edited April 26, 2021 by BlueRocky

[Jimcanuck]

Roster Springer against Scherzer tonight Y/N?

 

Or Margot vs. Montas

[jaysblue]

I offered Domingo German and Luis Oviedo and was indirectly insulted, lol...

 

 

 

Nice get Sil.

 

Thanks Jay!

 

Figured I needed the bat since my middle infield was pretty weak. Semien should be a 20/20 guy this season. Just hope he raises his other peripherals.

 

If you want to move one of your starters, let me know

[jaysblue]

14 team league. I got offered Gleyber Torres for Austin Meadows.

 

If I do this I'll have to expand the deal somewhat so I might come back to that but before I explore this any further I'm wondering if this base deal is good value. Torres' statcast page is pretty scary.

 

Pretty close. Tough to say. But if Torres loses SS eligibility down the road, he won't be as valuable IMO unless he hits like he does in 2019.

[Spanky99]

Thanks Jay!

 

Figured I needed the bat since my middle infield was pretty weak. Semien should be a 20/20 guy this season. Just hope he raises his other peripherals.

 

If you want to move one of your starters, let me know

 

I saw why you did it, same reason I tried. Semien's good, and fit a need.

[jaysblue]

Hate to say it but Semien has basically one viable fantasy season in his whole career.

 

Yup very true. But it was a pretty damn good season. I don't count 2020 at all. Most of his damage in 2019 came in the second half so he could be slow starter with the bat and heat up in the summer months. Hoping he can be like Jose Bautista or Josh Donaldson in their 30-35 years.

 

The power and SB numbers from Semien thus far are nice. Hoping he can be at least a 20/20 guy with better all around numbers.

[Carlos Danger]

I am in a league where I was offered a trade that has a number of pieces, but, the crux of it is J Rod for Giolito. I would be receiving Giolito..

 

Thoughts...?

 

Thanks

[Spanky99]

I am in a league where I was offered a trade that has a number of pieces, but, the crux of it is J Rod for Giolito. I would be receiving Giolito..

 

Thoughts...?

 

Thanks

 

What are the other pieces, LVA's sneaky, looking at your team Gio makes a lot of sense as you're sitting in first.

[The Cats Ass]

I'd take Giolito. I think the best is still yet to come for him, he'll continue figuring himself out. Now's a good time to buy low.

[Daniel Labude]

I am in a league where I was offered a trade that has a number of pieces, but, the crux of it is J Rod for Giolito. I would be receiving Giolito..

 

Thoughts...?

 

Thanks

 

Id probably say Giolito

[BlueRocky]

You guys are crazy to give up Julio Rodriguez for Lucas Giolito.

 

1) you would have to make the assumption you're getting 5+ WAR version of Giolito and top 10 SP production for ages 26->30+, that's a very big assumption he's only done it ONCE since 2016.

 

2) Pitchers are volatile as hell and a poor throw away from missing significant time from injury. There are only a handful of DeGrom and Scherzer caliber arms across a decade that can perform to that level and remain healthy in their 30s.

 

3) Giolito's metrics are pretty mediocre for a guy that's supposedly a top of the rotation starter. The only thing appealing about him is his age, yet he's a whole tier maybe two tiers below Shane Bieber or even Nola/Glasnow.

 

4) Adding Gio to his team most likely wouldn't make or break his fantasy season. If J-Rod reaches anything close to his ceiling we're talking Tatis/Acuna/Soto/Vlad level of franchise player in his early 20s. He's still far away but that'll be a very regrettable trade. Even if you don't believe in that talent and want to use him as a commodity, there'll likely be a team willing to give you a compelling right now asset for J-Rod. Put him up for an auction or something, you should get a better return.

Edited May 7, 2021 by BlueRocky

[Laika]

Really depends on your team. Giolito would make sense for someone really going for it in 2021 and 2022, with lots of players in their prime or in their 30s.

 

Julio is a keep for someone rebuilding or mostly trying to position for a sustained run starting in 2022 or later.

 

If you are somewhere in the middle then you need to look at your current long-term OF depth and SP depth right now, I guess. This would be a huge "going for it" trade. Any trade for an Ace is, even if they are only 26.

[Spanky99]

Really depends on your team. Giolito would make sense for someone really going for it in 2021 and 2022, with lots of players in their prime or in their 30s.

 

Julio is a keep for someone rebuilding or mostly trying to position for a sustained run starting in 2022 or later.

 

If you are somewhere in the middle then you need to look at your current long-term OF depth and SP depth right now, I guess. This would be a huge "going for it" trade. Any trade for an Ace is, even if they are only 26.

 

He's a contender and it's a definite need for him. I think he should. Oh, and especially when he's rostering Nelly at utility.

[BlueRocky]

Julio Rodriguez is still a very steep price to pay for a guy that isn't even top 50 in pitching WAR.

 

I understand his upside is higher than that and you're also paying for youth, but the price doesn't make sense if 2021-2022 is his window. Different if we're talking about Glasnow/Nola/DeGrom/Bieber/Cole.

 

Go grab some lower tier SPs, maybe older ones at a much less steep price and round out the rotation if there's a large glaring need for pitching stats.

[Daniel Labude]

Julio Rodriguez is still a very steep price to pay for a guy that isn't even top 50 in pitching WAR.

 

I understand his upside is higher than that and you're also paying for youth, but the price doesn't make sense if 2021-2022 is his window. Different if we're talking about Glasnow/Nola/DeGrom/Bieber/Cole.

 

Go grab some lower tier SPs, maybe older ones at a much less steep price and round out the rotation if there's a large glaring need for pitching stats.

 

Top 8 in K/9. His WAR is being dragged down by a bad game at an insane time (11 AM) and a few ok games. He will be fine. Look at his recent seasons and his age/further projection and its a great trade imo, especially if you need SP. SP comes at a premium in most fantasy leagues. Would suck to lose Julio, but getting a top 10 hitting prospect is much more frequent than getting a pitcher that will routinely be in the top 10 of MLB

[BlueRocky]

I'm not convinced he's a top 10 SP and will continue to give you that caliber of production in 2021-2024. There is a cataclysmic gap between the TOP tier SP and the tier below them, I cannot emphasize that enough.

 

There's a reason his fWAR is where it is compared to his fellow top of the rotation SP. His ERA, xERA, and FIP are all higher than 2019 and 2020. His velocity is down a full tick. He has a good changeup with a mediocre slider and groundball rate is nothing special. The whiff rate on his fastball is down 8%, slider down 21.5%, his only good weapon is his changeup. The xSLG and xWOBA on his 4-seamer has gone way up from two years ago. This all leads to the highest hard hit rate and barrel % against since his debut in 2016. A starting pitcher with one plus pitch is not a true #1. That's a very risky proposition to be trading one of the top 3 prospects in all of baseball.

 

I would be very surprised if Giolito gets any serious consideration for Cy Young this year. If that's the guy you want to trade Julio Rodriguez then by all means.

If I was Carlos I wouldn't.

[The Cats Ass]

Julio Rodriguez is still a very steep price to pay for a guy that isn't even top 50 in pitching WAR.

 

I understand his upside is higher than that and you're also paying for youth, but the price doesn't make sense if 2021-2022 is his window. Different if we're talking about Glasnow/Nola/DeGrom/Bieber/Cole.

 

Go grab some lower tier SPs, maybe older ones at a much less steep price and round out the rotation if there's a large glaring need for pitching stats.

 

Past 3 years he's top 10 in WAR. Above both Nola and Glasnow, and he's younger than both. Using 2021 WAR to evaluate a starting pitcher's value this early in the season is just silly.

[The Cats Ass]

4) Adding Gio to his team most likely wouldn't make or break his fantasy season. If J-Rod reaches anything close to his ceiling we're talking Tatis/Acuna/Soto/Vlad level of franchise player in his early 20s. He's still far away but that'll be a very regrettable trade. Even if you don't believe in that talent and want to use him as a commodity, there'll likely be a team willing to give you a compelling right now asset for J-Rod. Put him up for an auction or something, you should get a better return.

 

He'd have to exceed his ceiling to be up with those guys. He doesn't have the speed to steal the bases that Tatis and Acuna do, or hit tool of Soto and Vlad.

Edited May 7, 2021 by The Cats Ass

[BlueRocky]

Past 3 years he's top 10 in WAR. Above both Nola and Glasnow, and he's younger than both. Using 2021 WAR to evaluate a starting pitcher's value this early in the season is just silly.

 

That’s also false. Giolito’s 7.1 WAR from 2018 to 2020 would rank him 32nd in pitching WAR. If you want to play the track record game and discount 2021, that’s fine.

 

DeGrom has 18.7 WAR in that same time span with 628 strikeouts.

Cole has 14.7 WAR with 696 strikeouts.

Scherzer 15.8 WAR with 635 strikeouts

Verlander 12.8 WAR with 597 strikeouts

Bauer 11.6 WAR with 574 strikeouts

 

Giolito’s 7.1 WAR and 450 strikeouts isn’t even in the same stratosphere.

 

http:// https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2018-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&page=1_50

 

There is a massive difference between the top tier and the second tier, it’s not close. I’m not saying Giolito is cheeks and not a good pitcher, the asking price is just steep in my opinion. Even if Giolito is a guaranteed 3 WAR pitcher this year (which he’s not) it’s not worth it for me. To each their own.

[Laika]

I kind of see both sides on Giolito's current place in the talent pool.

 

The only thing that really matters is the projections. ZiPS ROS and Steamer ROS actually disagree if you look at fWAR. Steamer says 3 WAR for the rest of the year which is like 20th while ZiPS says 4.4 WAR which is 4th and only a bit back of Bieber. I think DeGrom, Cole, Bieber is a clear 1-3 and that is your tier 1. Giolito is in tier 2 which is pretty deep. He has flashed tier 1 potential though.

 

And fantasy value does not exactly = WAR.

[Daniel Labude]

That’s also false. Giolito’s 7.1 WAR from 2018 to 2020 would rank him 32nd in pitching WAR. If you want to play the track record game and discount 2021, that’s fine.

 

DeGrom has 18.7 WAR in that same time span with 628 strikeouts.

Cole has 14.7 WAR with 696 strikeouts.

Scherzer 15.8 WAR with 635 strikeouts

Verlander 12.8 WAR with 597 strikeouts

Bauer 11.6 WAR with 574 strikeouts

 

Giolito’s 7.1 WAR and 450 strikeouts isn’t even in the same stratosphere.

 

http:// https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2018-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&page=1_50

 

There is a massive difference between the top tier and the second tier, it’s not close. I’m not saying Giolito is cheeks and not a good pitcher, the asking price is just steep in my opinion. Even if Giolito is a guaranteed 3 WAR pitcher this year (which he’s not) it’s not worth it for me. To each their own.

 

Giolito was Top 7 in War from 2019-2020. You included his first full season before he broke out in which he was bad.

[Daniel Labude]

I kind of see both sides on Giolito's current place in the talent pool.

 

The only thing that really matters is the projections. ZiPS ROS and Steamer ROS actually disagree if you look at fWAR. Steamer says 3 WAR for the rest of the year which is like 20th while ZiPS says 4.4 WAR which is 4th and only a bit back of Bieber. I think DeGrom, Cole, Bieber is a clear 1-3 and that is your tier 1. Giolito is in tier 2 which is pretty deep. He has flashed tier 1 potential though.

 

And fantasy value does not exactly = WAR.

 

Definitely on the WAR part. Its close to a point, but can vary when compared to a players fantasy value

[The Cats Ass]

That’s also false. Giolito’s 7.1 WAR from 2018 to 2020 would rank him 32nd in pitching WAR. If you want to play the track record game and discount 2021, that’s fine.

 

DeGrom has 18.7 WAR in that same time span with 628 strikeouts.

Cole has 14.7 WAR with 696 strikeouts.

Scherzer 15.8 WAR with 635 strikeouts

Verlander 12.8 WAR with 597 strikeouts

Bauer 11.6 WAR with 574 strikeouts

 

Giolito’s 7.1 WAR and 450 strikeouts isn’t even in the same stratosphere.

 

http:// https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2018-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&page=1_50

 

There is a massive difference between the top tier and the second tier, it’s not close. I’m not saying Giolito is cheeks and not a good pitcher, the asking price is just steep in my opinion. Even if Giolito is a guaranteed 3 WAR pitcher this year (which he’s not) it’s not worth it for me. To each their own.

 

3 years counting this year. 2019-2021. So even with his slow start to this year he’s ranked 9th. Why you’d use his year before his breakout doesn’t make sense. Do you also use Glasnow’s MLB days with Pittsburgh to evaluate him?

[The Cats Ass]

I kind of see both sides on Giolito's current place in the talent pool.

 

The only thing that really matters is the projections. ZiPS ROS and Steamer ROS actually disagree if you look at fWAR. Steamer says 3 WAR for the rest of the year which is like 20th while ZiPS says 4.4 WAR which is 4th and only a bit back of Bieber. I think DeGrom, Cole, Bieber is a clear 1-3 and that is your tier 1. Giolito is in tier 2 which is pretty deep. He has flashed tier 1 potential though.

 

And fantasy value does not exactly = WAR.

 

I’d wonder what Steamers preseason thoughts were. Might be weighing too heavily on that one game he got shelled.

[BlueRocky]

And fantasy value does not exactly = WAR.

 

And I acknowledged that, hence I said a lot of his dynasty value is tied to his youth and expected future production.

 

Carlos wanted an opinion and I’ve stated my case, Giolito is clearly not in the tier 1 group of starting pitchers with the real Cy Young candidates, it’s not even close. The only way to justify his stats to be part of that group is do exactly what TCA suggesting, cherry pick his stats for the ONLY season he was ever worth 5+ WAR and heavily weigh on K/9, the only stat that he’s relevant. And even that season wasn’t that historically impressive, the real elite aces had consecutive 6 to 9+ WAR seasons back to back during that time span.

 

You can also argue he’s still young and his career is just getting started, then completely ignore the fact his metrics are trending the opposite direction. Like I said if you feel THAT is worth a top prospect in baseball, with all the risks and volatility that come with pitchers in general, then by all means go do the trade. To each their own.

 

I’d just be very surprised if nobody else in Carlos’ fantasy league is willing to offering him a better win now asset for Julio Rodriguez, if winning now is clearly his goal and he’s willing to mortgage his future for it.

Edited May 8, 2021 by BlueRocky

[Jimcanuck]

I’d just be very surprised if nobody else in Carlos’ fantasy league is willing to offering him a better win now asset for Julio Rodriguez, if winning now is clearly his goal and he’s willing to mortgage his future for it.

 

^ this. Giolito is light for J-Rod IMO

[The Cats Ass]

And I acknowledged that, hence I said a lot of his dynasty value is tied to his youth and expected future production.

 

Carlos wanted an opinion and I’ve stated my case, Giolito is clearly not in the tier 1 group of starting pitchers with the real Cy Young candidates, it’s not even close. The only way to justify his stats to be part of that group is do exactly what TCA suggesting, cherry pick his stats for the ONLY season he was ever worth 5+ WAR and heavily weigh on K/9, the only stat that he’s relevant. And even that season wasn’t that historically impressive, the real elite aces had consecutive 6 to 9+ WAR seasons back to back during that time span.

 

You can also argue he’s still young and his career is just getting started, then completely ignore the fact his metrics are trending the opposite direction. Like I said if you feel THAT is worth a top prospect in baseball, with all the risks and volatility that come with pitchers in general, then by all means go do the trade. To each their own.

 

I’d just be very surprised if nobody else in Carlos’ fantasy league is willing to offering him a better win now asset for Julio Rodriguez, if winning now is clearly his goal and he’s willing to mortgage his future for it.

 

Not sure you understand what cherry picking is. I used the stats for the seasons since he made a huge change and unlocked his potential.

 

If you put that much stock in the first month of the season for a starting pitcher I have a Cole Irvin I’d like to sell.

Edited May 8, 2021 by The Cats Ass

[Laika]

^ this. Giolito is light for J-Rod IMO

 

It really isn't.