So what is Brett Lawrie's ceiling now?

[Spoonovic]

I hate to borrow a Raptors RealGM thread type, but at this point what is Lawrie’s ceiling? We know that he isn’t as bad as he has been this year and we know he isn’t as good as he was the year he got called up.

 

Before he got called up, we all thought he would be a weak defender who is an extra base machine (doubles, triples and some home runs), probably steal 20 stolen bases a year and who will hit some where in the .280 range.

 

Seems like he has been the exact opposite since he has settled in the big leagues. He doesn’t hit for a good average, he cant get the ball in the air (thus no extra base hits), he has been a great defender at third and his stolen base success rate is only 67.4%.

 

Yes, he is only 24 and could still put it all together. But at this point it seems unlikely that he will be the superstar that we all thought he would be.

[BlueJayWay]

Do we have another Travis Snider (at least as far as hitting goes) on our hands?

 

I wake up in the middle of the night and worry about these things.

[Olerud363]

I hate to borrow a Raptors RealGM thread type, but at this point what is Lawrie’s ceiling? We know that he isn’t as bad as he has been this year and we know he isn’t as good as he was the year he got called up.

 

Before he got called up, we all thought he would be a weak defender who is an extra base machine (doubles, triples and some home runs), probably steal 20 stolen bases a year and who will hit some where in the .280 range.

 

Seems like he has been the exact opposite since he has settled in the big leagues. He doesn’t hit for a good average, he cant get the ball in the air (thus no extra base hits), he has been a great defender at third and his stolen base success rate is only 67.4%.

 

Yes, he is only 24 and could still put it all together. But at this point it seems unlikely that he will be the superstar that we all thought he would be.

 

His ceiling is still huge. He could win a homerun title and a batting title.

 

Ceiling is the best we could expect him to do. He's actually very comparable to Adrian Beltre at age 24 (Beltre was way healthier). Beltre didn't really put it together until 25. Then still has gone up and down a bit.

 

I know people will think I'm crazy... but he could still be a superstar. He has the tools.

 

Will he reach his ceiling?? I don't know. His k-rate is not bad, still got natural power, so I would say as long as he stays healthy he's got a shot. Not one of these guys like Travis Snider who will struggle for contact... I think.

 

[edit] and just to pre-emptively fend off the "nut-case" comments.. plenty of players with Lawrie's skill set have contended for home run titles. Aaron Hill almost won one for chist's sake. Bill Mueller won a batting title. So yes. If (big if) Lawrie puts it together he may be able to contend for these things. Same could be said about a lot of young players. They don't all put it together obviously.

[G-Snarls]

Matt Williams maybe? (minus the ovious PED-enhanced HR numbers)

 

Power potential but prone to bad seasons. Modest to subpar OBP skills.

 

Excellent defense with a couple of gold gloves

[Olerud363]

Do we have another Travis Snider (at least as far as hitting goes) on our hands?

 

I wake up in the middle of the night and worry about these things.

 

... and this is the other end of the possibilities. I worry about that too.

[Olerud363]

Matt Williams maybe? (minus the ovious PED-enhanced HR numbers)

 

Power potential but prone to bad seasons. Modest to subpar OBP skills.

 

Excellent defense with a couple of gold gloves

 

That's a good one. I've always thought Kelly Gruber, hopefully with a good 10 year stretch instead of Gruber's 3 (88-90).

[G-Snarls]

Pretty astute.

 

Are you referring to his first comment? Or the second one? LOL

[G-Snarls]

That's a good one. I've always thought Kelly Gruber, hopefully with a good 10 year stretch instead of Gruber's 3 (88-90).

 

Matt Williams career slash line:

 

.268/.317/.489 OPS .805

 

Brett Lawrie career so far:

 

.264/.323/.420 OPS .743

 

Give Brett some of whatever Williams was using and the slugging probably goes up 50+ points

[Sammy225]

Matt Williams maybe? (minus the ovious PED-enhanced HR numbers)

 

Power potential but prone to bad seasons. Modest to subpar OBP skills.

 

Excellent defense with a couple of gold gloves

 

That's a very good comp. I was also thinking along the lines of a Scott Rolen. Won't hit more that 20-25 HR's. Solid D. That's the ceiling though so not saying he could get there.

[dineke]

G.o.a.t.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Still believe his ceiling is white!

[HERPDERP]

lol no way is Lawrie going to win a batting title or home run title. He's a line drive hitter.

 

I can definitely see him settling to be a Longoria type.

 

.280 to .320

15-20 HR

Superb D

Edited April 10, 2014 by HERPDERP

[frizzer1]

For me Rasmus with that sweet easy power swing is the one who has the potential to break out...slow start but he's been getting closer each year.

Lawrie always seems to waggle the bat as the pitch is coming and thus is always late.almost everything is fouled or hit to the right side.

is that fixable?

[G-Snarls]

For me Rasmus with that sweet easy power swing is the one who has the potential to break out...slow start but he's been getting closer each year.

Lawrie always seems to waggle the bat as the pitch is coming and thus is always late.almost everything is fouled or hit to the right side.

is that fixable?

 

In general I'd suggest yes it is fixable. How willing or capable is Lawrie of making major adjustments? Not sure. Though his willingness to seek help second half last season is at least bit encouraging.

[Frenchsoup]

His ceiling is still huge. He could win a homerun title and a batting title.

 

Ceiling is the best we could expect him to do. He's actually very comparable to Adrian Beltre at age 24 (Beltre was way healthier). Beltre didn't really put it together until 25. Then still has gone up and down a bit.

 

I know people will think I'm crazy... but he could still be a superstar. He has the tools.

 

Will he reach his ceiling?? I don't know. His k-rate is not bad, still got natural power, so I would say as long as he stays healthy he's got a shot. Not one of these guys like Travis Snider who will struggle for contact... I think.

 

[edit] and just to pre-emptively fend off the "nut-case" comments.. plenty of players with Lawrie's skill set have contended for home run titles. Aaron Hill almost won one for chist's sake. Bill Mueller won a batting title. So yes. If (big if) Lawrie puts it together he may be able to contend for these things. Same could be said about a lot of young players. They don't all put it together obviously.

 

He has all the tools to be a superstar except the brains. Baseball is a game of intelligence and Lawrie will never have that so it drastically lowers his ceiling.

[Angrioter]

Moustakas and Lawrie have a huge ceiling but..............needs to put all the s*** together.

[The Cats Ass]

30/30 club with a .320 avg.

[Olerud363]

lol no way is Lawrie going to win a batting title or home run title. He's a line drive hitter.

 

I can definitely see him settling to be a Longoria type.

 

.280 to .320

15-20 HR

Superb D

 

If he is a line drive hitting .280 to .320 guy he has a great chance of winning a batting title... Freddie Sanchez won a batting title.

 

Home run title?? Ryne Sandberg didn't really start hitting till he was 24... then won a homerun title eventually. Hit 8 homers at 23.

 

God only knows how Lawrie is going to develop given his personality. All I'm saying is this.

 

Take guys who are real good... a lot of them looked like Lawrie heading into their age 24 season.

 

Take guys who are 23 and look like Lawrie... some of them will be good more of them won't.

 

Given his tools he's got an excellent chance at being real good... given his head he's got an excellent chance at being Travis Snider. Not even god and the super-scouts know on this one.

[Flamingweazel]

lol no way is Lawrie going to win a batting title or home run title. He's a line drive hitter.

 

I can definitely see him settling to be a Longoria type.

 

.280 to .320

15-20 HR

Superb D

 

Confused, are you saying line drive hitters cannot win batting titles? Cause if so that's dumb.

[TRM]

I can't even believe you've done this.

 

Seriously, we all know he's gonna settle in much closer to a Brooks Robinson/ A-Rod/ Mike Schmidt hybrid.

[8D]

Probably around .275-.285ish AVG, .330ish OBP .450SLUG

15-25HRs with elite/near elite defense. I think his HRs are going to fluctuate every season.

I think that's his realistic cieling. Not bad, not bad.

Probably an annual 3-4 WAR player, but maybe 5 WAR at his peak.

 

But really, who the f*** knows. Pulling these numbers out my ass to what I feel aligns with my instincts.

[Stangstag]

30/30 club with a .320 avg.

 

Lawrie will never steal more than 15 bases in a single season. He's just not a good base-stealer.

[mitchf]

I thought we had our hands on one of the future 3 or 4 greatest players in the league as recent as 2 years ago.

 

Tough to say what's happened to him, but his lack of power is terrifying. I'm not expecting him to overwhelm in regards to getting on base either so my guess is probably the .270/.340/.420 ish range.

 

A Coco Crisp bat would be great.

[mitchf]

Remember when we all mocked the Cards poster who said Brett Lawrie probably had an Allen Craig bat? We should be collectively embarrassed over that one.

Ugh..

 

The Cardinals wouldn't even want to start Brett Lawrie at this point. It's a weird fall, even by blue jay standards.

[mitchf]

Pretty conservative for a ceiling, considering Steamer has him at .265/.327/.437 right now. Lawrie also has a better career wRC+ than Coco does.

That isn't the ceiling I'm giving him, that's just what I project him as.

 

A ceiling doesn't really tell us anything.

[mitchf]

Lawrie > Wong

Considering the paths they're both going on (one in St Louis, the other in Toronto), you'll regret that.

[JuniorFelix]

Ugh..

 

The Cardinals wouldn't even want to start Brett Lawrie at this point. It's a weird fall, even by blue jay standards.

Let's just hope it is a stumble rather than a fall...

[mitchf]

Oh I thought you were answering the topic question. That seems reasonable, but less OBP, more SLG.

The topic question has usually been beaten to death by the time I get into these threads.

 

Based on last year, I'm not so sure they won't just try and go against what you're saying. The Brett Lawrie we have in our hands today doesn't have any potential for a high SLG, he should be trying to get on base. "The Seitzer Approach" will be in full effect here....

[Olerud363]

First off comparing Lawrie to Snider is dumb because Snider struck out every at-bat. But the ceiling is still very high. Not everyone can figure it out at 24. He has to much talent to not figure it out. After 9 games I'm not worried.

 

Some of us old timers got really burnt on Snider. Listen we said, Delgado struggled, Olerud struggled, Thome struggled, these guy struggle a bit... but don't worry fat kid will hit. Fat kid didn't hit. Maybe it was the strike-outs.

[The Cats Ass]

Lawrie will never steal more than 15 bases in a single season. He's just not a good base-stealer.

 

30 is his ceiling. He'll get over 15 a couple times I bet. He has the speed, and you can teach base stealing.