Annual Win Total Prediction Contest

[wilko]

89!

[Atothe]

12 wins

[GD]

89!

 

Respond to my trade offer in the BBDL!

[Gen.Disarray]

82.

[ElNik2013]

85. Enough to save AA's job.

[Maahfaace]

91, but they still miss out on wildcard.

[Orgfiller]

f*** you

 

You ruined it for all of us!

[KSaw]

Just a few days ago I probably would have said 76 or 77. I'm going with 88.

 

First time in history one game influenced me so much but Morrow looked so good in Montreal that I was blown away. Morrow healthy and nasty is a difference maker.

 

I was already factoring addition by subtraction with Arencibia gone. I see hope.

[Eddiek19]

80.

[G-Snarls]

Just a few days ago I probably would have said 76 or 77. I'm going with 88.

 

First time in history one game influenced me so much but Morrow looked so good in Montreal that I was blown away. Morrow healthy and nasty is a difference maker.

 

I was already factoring addition by subtraction with Arencibia gone. I see hope.

 

And even if Morrow has a 15 day DL or two, we have Redmond and Stroman backing him up, rather than Romero and Wang.

[jays_fever]

86.

[Nabru]

66 wins.

[awsomest]

97 win AL east

 

 

 

plz

[saskjayfan]

91, but they still miss out on wildcard.

 

91 they get the wildcard!

[Dylan]

And even if Morrow has a 15 day DL or two, we have Redmond and Stroman backing him up, rather than Romero and Wang.

I still don't find that very comforting but still a lot better.

[P2F]

I'll say 88, and they make a run at the playoffs, but ultimately miss out by a couple of games.

 

It will make for a fun and interesting season, though.

[SAAviour]

90.

[ElNik2013]

I still don't find that very comforting but still a lot better.

 

 

 

I understand and agree with your concerns, but let's be honest here, even the mighty braves were in panic mode when 2 of their starters went down early in ST. They were lucky Santana hadn't signed because if the injuries had hit just a week later, they'd be in deeper trouble.

 

The point is that very few teams can with stand long term injuries to their regulars, if there are more than a few, I'd like to see the list posted. Yes, the Cards have depth, but not many other teams. Let's play ball I say.

[gruber92]

89

 

Dickey's sub par season will be responsible for just missing a wild card spot.

[TDotttt2005]

See below for the Listing of Win Predictions. I can provide updates at various times in the year. maybe at the quarter, half, 3/4...etc.

 

Stats (Not including Atothe's 12, which we hope is an outlier):

Mean Wins - 86 Wins.

Median Wins - 86 Wins.

Mode (most common choice) - 83 Wins.

Min - 66 Wins.

Max - 101 Wins.

Atothe 12

Nabru 66

Over500 77

TheHurl 77

BTS 78

Dylan 79

bowld 80

Eddiek19 80

King 82

Olerud363 82

John_Havok 82

Gen.disarray 82

FrenchSoup 83

TDotttt2005 83

Anemic0ffense 83

jaysfan2014 83

Angryrioter 83

JfAs 84

GordieDougie 84

Sammy225 85

Havok24 85

orgfiller 85

ElNik2013 85

Spittin@Umpz12 86

Gsnarls 86

Jays_Fever 86

Fatcowxlive 87

KSaw 88

play2fade 88

Walkoff93 89

Ambomination 89

wilko 89

Gruber92 89

Northof49 90

theblujay 90

sAAviour 90

o2cui2i 91

Maahface 91

Spanky99 91

saskjayfan 91

Chappy 92

jays4life19 93

Jonn 94

awesomest 97

eastcoastjaysfan 100

Dineke 101

[TDotttt2005]

EARLY UPDATE. Approx. 10% Mark of the season.

16 GP. Jays are 8-8, .500, 2GB the Yankees in the AL East, 0.5 GB the Twins for the 2nd WC spot.

 

Current Pace: 81 Wins.

No one predicted 81, but bowld, Eddiek19, King, Olerud363, John_Havok, and Gen.disarray are the closest with either 80 or 82.

 

 

Atothe 12

Nabru 66

Over500 77

TheHurl 77

BTS 78

Dylan 79

bowld 80

Eddiek19 80

King 82

Olerud363 82

John_Havok 82

Gen.disarray 82

FrenchSoup 83

TDotttt2005 83

Anemic0ffense 83

jaysfan2014 83

Angryrioter 83

JfAs 84

GordieDougie 84

Sammy225 85

Havok24 85

orgfiller 85

ElNik2013 85

Spittin@Umpz12 86

Gsnarls 86

Jays_Fever 86

Fatcowxlive 87

KSaw 88

play2fade 88

Walkoff93 89

Ambomination 89

wilko 89

Gruber92 89

Northof49 90

theblujay 90

sAAviour 90

o2cui2i 91

Maahface 91

Spanky99 91

saskjayfan 91

Chappy 92

jays4life19 93

Jonn 94

awesomest 97

eastcoastjaysfan 100

Dineke 101

[The_DH]

I will go for 76 partly because nobody took it and partly based that I think this is an 84 win team subtract one win per month for the current management group including AA.

[GD]

66 R

64 RA

.515 pW%

83.5-78.5

 

Our pytho record has us at a pace of 83-84 wins. As someone who guessed 84 (I think), I like this.

[TDotttt2005]

6 of 16 games have been against the two worst teams in the AL though. I'm expecting the wheels to completely fall off in the near future.

 

That said, 7 have come against potentially 2 of the best (Rays before they lost their rotation), and we have a 3-4 record against them. Not terrible.

[closetjaysfan]

a very optimistic 88 for me

[Smedley Butler]

I'm just in disbelief that none of our starters have gone down to injury yet.

[ElNik2013]

I'm sticking by 85

[TDotttt2005]

UPDATE. Approx. 25% Mark of the season.

 

40 GP. Jays are 20-20, .500, 2nd Place (Tie with NYY/BOS), 1.5 GB the Orioles in the AL East, 5-Way Tie at 0.5 GB the Mariners for the 2nd WC spot.

 

Current Pace: 81 Wins.

No one predicted 81, but bowld, Eddiek19, King, Olerud363, John_Havok, and Gen.disarray are the closest with either 80 or 82.

 

Atothe 12

Nabru 66

The DH 76

Over500 77

TheHurl 77

BTS 78

Dylan 79

Belliss10 79

bowld 80

Eddiek19 80

King 82

Olerud363 82

John_Havok 82

Gen.disarray 82

FrenchSoup 83

TDotttt2005 83

Anemic0ffense 83

jaysfan2014 83

Angryrioter 83

JfAs 84

GordieDougie 84

Sammy225 85

Havok24 85

orgfiller 85

ElNik2013 85

Spittin@Umpz12 86

Gsnarls 86

Jays_Fever 86

Fatcowxlive 87

KSaw 88

ClosetJaysFan 88

play2fade 88

Walkoff93 89

Ambomination 89

wilko 89

Gruber92 89

Northof49 90

theblujay 90

sAAviour 90

o2cui2i 91

Maahface 91

Spanky99 91

saskjayfan 91

Chappy 92

jays4life19 93

Jonn 94

awesomest 97

eastcoastjaysfan 100

Dineke 101

[TDotttt2005]

Pythagorean Win-Loss:

RS 199

RA 183

pW% .542

 

Projected Wins 88

Projected Losses 74

[Atothe]

Pythagorean Win-Loss:

RS 199

RA 183

pW% .542

 

Projected Wins 88

Projected Losses 74

 

If they win that many games, I think they win the division