Orioles progressing to a deal for Jimenez

[GD]

You couldn't be more wrong, but it makes for a great example of how abusing stats can lead to irrational thinking. Here's a few realities for you. The Leafs only a few years ago were second last in all of hockey, missed the playoffs every year, had an older roster, had no real depth in their system. Now, they've addressed all of these issues. Rome wasn't built in a day, but very few NHL franchises have rebuilt as well as they have.

 

The fact you say "Bozak laugher" shows how truly delusional you are. Go ahead, tell me what the Leafs W/L record is from 2012-2014 with Bozak in their line up. Now that's a real stat, winning games. And with respect to Clarkson, its far too early to address how he will do on his contract. If he's "crippled" their team then explain to me why they are solidly in the playoff race again. I don't care about some bs stats, there is a guy on here that ranked the Leafs dead last in hockey this year based on his bs forecasting stat. They aren't even close to dead last. What's the point of forecasting anything if your results are so brutally bad ?

 

Pretty much every move the Leafs made in the last 4 years has been gold.

[Nox]

Now that's a real stat, winning games.

 

It was surprising I made it that far but this line is where I had to stop.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

This is a bad post.

 

No, you know fk all about hockey mate. I could quote your s*** on the NHL site but why bother.

[GD]

I feel like signing Morales on a pillow contract (maybe the same kind of contract Drew was looking for with an opt out) and trading Lind for pitching could be an interesting possibility. It's like a net $4 million or so spent, without accounting for the pitching. Then maybe you move Janssen + Happ for something and sign Drew.

[DuckDuckGose]

-9 shot differential. Per game. Corsi/Fenwich/better stuff tell a similar story.

 

The team in it's current form is s***.

 

Then there's the Phaneuf debacle, the Bozak laugher and the aforementioned Clarkson cripler. Not bad for a year on the job.

 

It matters a lot less when you consistently get good goaltending.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

I concur.

 

Of course you do, you've been posting s*** about the Leafs and Raptors all year.

[havok24]

Of course you do, you've been posting s*** about the Leafs and Raptors all year.

 

I don't think I've made a single post about the Raptors on this forum. Are you just this stupid all the time?

[GD]

Of course you do, you've been posting s*** about the Leafs and Raptors all year.

 

Yer dumn

[G-Snarls]

I feel like signing Morales on a pillow contract (maybe the same kind of contract Drew was looking for with an opt out) and trading Lind for pitching could be an interesting possibility. It's like a net $4 million or so spent, without accounting for the pitching. Then maybe you move Janssen + Happ for something and sign Drew.

 

Pirates still looking for a left hand hitting 1B

 

FWIW

[Smokey]

Of course you do, you've been posting s*** about the Leafs and Raptors all year.

 

http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/ben10fanfiction/images/f/f0/Abandon_Thread.gif

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

It was surprising I made it that far but this line is where I had to stop.

 

You seriously lack perspective. Luckily you have the Jays to complain about and not seem super stupid at times doing so.

Just for kicks, tell me which baseball team is most similar in nature to the Leafs in terms of competitiveness, roster make up, and

depth ? I need a good laugh.

[Nox]

It matters a lot less when you consistently get good goaltending.

 

Shooting and save % regress to the mean much like anything else we measure in sports. You don't project Bernier and Reimer to stop 93% (or whatever it's been exactly so far) of the shots they face going forward despite what they've done already. You also don't expect the Leafs to shoot at the same lofty % they have going forward.

[Laika]

Shooting and save % regress to the mean much like anything else we measure in sports. You don't project Bernier and Reimer to stop 93% (or whatever it's been exactly so far) of the shots they face going forward despite what they've done already. You also don't expect the Leafs to shoot at the same lofty % they have going forward.

 

The problem with people like you is that you don't watch the games, and then when the numbers don't regress ever so often, you chock it up to "a change in skill level" and carry on with your statistical white washing.

 

Turn on the TV once in a while and maybe try to explain the data before defaulting to RTTM, you pleb.

[GD]

Pirates still looking for a left hand hitting 1B

 

FWIW

 

Hmm. Someone was saying something about Lind for Taillon...?

 

Actually, Charlie Morton for Adam Lind could be really, really sexy. JFaS likes Morton at 2.7 WAR and a 95 RA9-. And that's 2.7 over just 163 innings. That's just about 3 WAR over 180 innings. Also, fansourced Fangraphs projections like him within .1 WAR and 2 IP, more or less the exact same. That's a win and a half upgrade over Lind, probably, in an area we need it. And he's young. Gotta wonder if they'd take it.

 

Just found my new ideal offseason.

 

-Morales signed (2/22 with an opt out)

-Lind to Pittsburgh for Morton

-Sign Drew

-Bonus: Sign Capuano

 

1. Jose Reyes SS

2. Stephen Drew 2B

3. Jose Bautista RF

4. Edwin Encarnacion 1B

5. Kendrys Morales DH

6. Colby Rasmus CF

7. Melky Cabrera LF

8. Brett Lawrie 3B

9. Dioner Navarro C

 

1. R.A. Dickey

2. Mark Buehrle

3. Charlie Morton

4. Brandon Morrow

5. Chris Capuano

 

 

Seems realistic with a touch of ideal.

[DuckDuckGose]

Shooting and save % regress to the mean much like anything else we measure in sports. You don't project Bernier and Reimer to stop 93% (or whatever it's been exactly so far) of the shots they face going forward despite what they've done already. You also don't expect the Leafs to shoot at the same lofty % they have going forward.

 

Meh, if they keep playing like this the Leafs will finish Top 4 in the East. Perhaps they even win a series.

[Nox]

You seriously lack perspective. Luckily you have the Jays to complain about and not seem super stupid at times doing so.

Just for kicks, tell me which baseball team is most similar in nature to the Leafs in terms of competitiveness, roster make up, and

depth ? I need a good laugh.

 

Why would anybody compare a hockey team and a baseball team in a semi-serious manner? That doesn't make any sense.

[Laika]

just found my new ideal offseason.

 

-morales signed (2/22 with an opt out)

-lind to pittsburgh for morton

-sign drew

-bonus: Sign capuano

 

puuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuukkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

 

groooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooossssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

 

f***kkkkkkkkk you

[GD]

puuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuukkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

 

groooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooossssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

 

f***kkkkkkkkk you

 

Seems like an upgrade.

[Nox]

Meh, if they keep playing like this the Leafs will finish Top 4 in the East. Perhaps they even win a series.

 

If "playing like this" means getting better than average luck then you're probably right. If it means playing at their true talent with a more luck neutral set of noise surrounding that then I doubt it.

 

I mean, even just take their shootout record out of the equation and you're looking at a team that's fighting for a playoff spot. Put them in the West and somebody would have burned down the ACC by now.

[Nox]

The problem with people like you is that you don't watch the games, and then when the numbers don't regress ever so often, you chock it up to "a change in skill level" and carry on with your statistical white washing.

 

Turn on the TV once in a while and maybe try to explain the data before defaulting to RTTM, you pleb.

 

The Darrell troll. My favourite type.

[Nox]

RTTM is the fallback for poor analytics. It's actually driving statistical analysis in the wrong direction. Part of the reason is the sample size issue. These kids need large enough sample to try to prove out hypotheses, so they need to use copious amounts of data, compromised of a lot of differentiating material which they can't/won't separate out. So all those distinctions are just explained away as future RTTM, rather than being able to be investigated and causality and interrelationships determined. Laziness, lack of acquired skills or just being stoopit ... whatever the root cause, it sucks for the game.

 

Don't paint in such broad strokes. Nobody is saying that analytics, especially in hockey, begins and ends with RTTM. The effects do broadly exist however and if you're working with very little information, you can make some generalized assertions such as "Alex Steen will not continue to shoot at 25% this year" based largely on mean effects.

 

There's plenty of interesting work going on in the field that is significantly more involved than some weighted averages regressed to the mean appropriately. Take a look at this paper for nice introduction as to how we should probably be modeling real strength play.

 

http://arxiv.org/abs/1208.0799

 

If there are things in there that you don't like (there may very well be) I'd love to hear them. It's an evolving field with many of the core ideas still being developed.

[DuckDuckGose]

If "playing like this" means getting better than average luck then you're probably right. If it means playing at their true talent with a more luck neutral set of noise surrounding that then I doubt it.

 

I mean, even just take their shootout record out of the equation and you're looking at a team that's fighting for a playoff spot. Put them in the West and somebody would have burned down the ACC by now.

 

This is all great in theory but irrelevant in reality. The Leafs don't play within a set neutral of noise or luck and they don't play in the West.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Hey guys can we put away the calculators for a second and get back to making fun of Alex?

 

That'd be great.

[Nox]

The Leafs don't play within a set neutral of noise or luck

 

Why would we not expect them to?

[Laika]

Why would we not expect them to?

 

Because they're the Lucky Leafs! Been getting lucky since '67! Proven track record of luck.

[Nox]

Hey guys can we put away the calculators for a second and get back to making fun of Alex?

 

That'd be great.

 

Right now I bet Alex is drinking one of those new Starbucks triple fat tzatziki lattes while filling down Beeston's bunions.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Right now I bet Alex is drinking one of those new Starbucks triple fat tzatziki lattes while filling down Beeston's bunions.

 

That's more like it. Can always count on you Nox

 

-#1 Nox fanboy

[Nox]

That's more like it. Can always count on you Nox

 

-#1 Nox fanboy

 

You could have at least thanked me for my useful post.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

You could have at least thanked me for my useful post.

 

Sure thing Nox. Hope your evening is good.

 

-#1 Noxage fanboy

[Nox]

Sure thing Nox. Hope your evening is good.

 

-#1 Noxage fanboy

 

Yours as well. Glad to see that The Dogg hasn't hunted you down and made a skin suit out of you since your move to the Big Smoke.