Odds of Jays signing Tanaka

[DuckDuckGose]

We can't offer him the most, probably just as much though... They only thing we can do is remind him who dropped A-bombs on his country.

 

And they can remind him how we rounded up all the Japanese and shoved them in internment camps.

[kgm1]

I have no faith in alex to get this done, too much and bad location for tanaka

 

This has absolutely nothing to do with AA and everything to do with the fact Tanaka has offers from places he wants to play and toronto isn't one of them .

[kgm1]

s*** maybe you have a virus!!!!

 

Yea , caught it from the people who think adding 1 pitcher to this line up makes it a playoff bound team

[Laika]

Yea , caught it from the people who think adding 1 pitcher to this line up makes it a playoff bound team

 

Well, if it was Kershaw....

[GD]

Well, if it was Sale....

 

Ftfy :3

[Laika]

Yea , caught it from the people who think adding 1 pitcher to this line up makes it a playoff bound team

 

But seriously, sane projections have the Jays around 85 wins right now. That's not the playoffs. But those are mean projections, and if I'm remembering my SABR101 class correctly, it's not exactly unlikely for teams to fall anywhere within +/- 6 or 7 wins of their projections.

 

So the Jays right now, depending on reasonable randomness, should win between 79ish and 91ish games, with the most likely result being 85. So they have a chance to make the playoffs right now! Not a great chance, but a chance. Kind of like thehurl's chances of getting laid on any given Friday.

 

So adding one pitcher that represents a decent upgrade would of course increase their playoff odds. It's not like a team has to cross some magical line where the projection systems project 90+ wins, and all of those teams make the playoffs. That's not the correct way of thinking about things. The Blue Jays should definitely be adding wins right now, even if they can't find a way to add a huge amount.

[John_Havok]

So the Jays right now, depending on reasonable randomness, should win between 79ish and 91ish games, with the most likely result being 85. So they have a chance to make the playoffs right now! Not a great chance, but a chance. Kind of like thehurl's chances of getting laid on any given Friday.

 

Shots fired.

[Laika]

It's kind of amazing how even a very moderate splurge or two on the free agent market could have this team at a 90-win projection. Russell Martin and Omar Infante would have them there.

 

Using 2014 free agents, I wonder what the cheapest way to make the Blue Jays a 90+ Steamer team would be...

 

Ellis was a popular cheap add but he's really only like, a ~1 win upgrade on Goins or Izturis (I think).

[Laika]

Shots fired.

 

guy owes me MONEY

[GD]

Not a great chance, but a chance. Kind of like thehurl's chances of getting laid on any given Friday.

 

http://img.pandawhale.com/58669-so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-c-Sm9B.gif

[BlueJaysGirl]

I'd say 0-5% - I think the Jays know that and GM_AA already has a contract on the table ready to go for Ubaldo. I am 80% sure we sign him a few days after Tanaka signs with, hopefully, the Dodgers. Any team but the f***ing Yankees.

[connorp]

Using 2014 free agents, I wonder what the cheapest way to make the Blue Jays

a 90+ Steamer team would be...

 

Ellis was a popular cheap add but he's really only like, a ~1 win upgrade on Goins or Izturis (I think).

 

My unpopular moves: Trade Sanchez for Howie Kendrick while hes still worth that. Sign Jimi (i know you saber mibekys) dont agree.. Im not going to edit monkeys either

 

Theres 6 wins prob

 

I'd say 0-5% - I think the Jays know that and GM_AA already has a contract on the table ready to go for Ubaldo. I am 80% sure we sign him a few days after Tanaka signs with, hopefully, the Dodgers. Any team but the f***ing Yankees.

 

Now are you really a chick? Its well documented that im trolling POF for xhicks. These giys can provide framed photo of me. Just fyi, any extra body weight whatsoever is auto deal break. Im not a cushion for pushin believer

[Laika]

My unpopular moves: Trade Sanchez for Howie Kendrick while hes still worth that. Sign Jimi (i know you saber mibekys) dont agree.. Im not going to edit monkeys either

 

Theres 6 wins prob

 

To me, that looks like a really, really expensive way of adding maybe 4 or 5 wins. I think 6 is optimistic (they might WAR 6 in total, but that's not a 6 win upgrade. Goins/Izuturis might project for 0.4 or something and the #5 spot might project for 1 or 0.5 or so).

[connorp]

6 WAR total i meant..yes..

 

But prob +$23m for it. They need to sign a SP anyway..trade route is a fail

[Laika]

6 WAR total i meant..yes..

 

But prob +$23m for it. They need to sign a SP anyway..trade route is a fail

 

Jimenez has real value to the Jays at $14M AAV.

 

Tanaka is the sexy option but probably not the most efficient.

 

f***, you might be able to get Garza AND Jimemez for less than the cost of Tanaka... who knows.

[connorp]

Jimenez has real value to the Jays at $14M AAV.

 

Tanaka is the sexy option but probably not the most efficient.

 

f***, you might be able to get Garza AND Jimemez for less than the cost of Tanaka... who knows.

 

Yeah i like my two moves for same cost as Tanaka. Whats the feeling anyway.. As far as projecting Tanaka for next couple years. 3-4 WAR guy?.. I understand this is a crapshoot more than an average projection

[Laika]

Yeah i like my two moves for same cost as Tanaka. Whats the feeling anyway.. As far as projecting Tanaka for next couple years. 3-4 WAR guy?.. I understand this is a crapshoot more than an average projection

 

He doesn't have amazing velocity like Darvish, but he doesn't throw soft.

 

He has a nasty splitter and he has really good command of all his s***.

 

The obvious semi-racist comp is Hiroki Kuroda. So yeah, 3-4 wins is what I'm expecting.

 

I've only read a couple of articles trying to guess what he'll do. This one by Jeff Sullivan, and this slightly more bullish one from a bit of a niche site.

[KingKat]

I can see them posting the 20M posting fee. But when the contract figures go beyond 5 years and 50 mill we are out. Someone will overpay him. Even if hes not the next Darvish teams feel s***** they didn't try harder to get him.

 

No one should feel shittier than the Jays. With the new posting system, an opportunity like Darvish represented will not come back.

[connorp]

To BTS: that was complete tongue-in-cheek. I have high standards. I showed Ang and King some pics of girls im chatting with

 

I was actually just being sexist like the guy on the old board that said any female that played mlb would inevitably get gang banged:)

 

That is still my all time fav thread

[connorp]

lol, I remember that

 

Seriously if i was drinking milk and i thought about that thread, it would come out my nose..lol..

 

Just cause guy was so serious and then you were debating woth the girl in the thread that some girls like getting gang banged and she had her opinions.. Lol.. Was so classic

[connorp]

Id be genuinely curious to know what the formula was to get there. Wonder how he comp'd it

 

Edit; i missed your link

[kgm1]

"""But seriously, sane projections have the Jays around 85 wins right now. That's not the playoffs. But those are mean projections, and if I'm remembering my SABR101 class correctly, it's not exactly unlikely for teams to fall anywhere within +/- 6 or 7 wins of their projections. """"""

 

Hell I hope they are right , I just don't have them at 85 , closer to 81 and that's with some semblance of health .

[TheHurl]

guy owes me MONEY

 

Guy paid you about an hour before this was posted.

[KevinGregg]

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/01/02/offseason-power-rankings-jan-2/

 

NL is always so weak, only 2 teams in top 11. yet they seem to always come out on top in the WS

[Key22]

We have only one chance - that Tanaka has a grandparent who was in Nagasaki or Hiroshima during WWII and didn't have family in Canada who were put into internment camps AND AA is willing to go 7 years at $18million per season and we throw in a Hello Kitty Car for his girlfriend/wife/him if he's the sort.

 

[TheHurl]

We have only one chance - that Tanaka has a grandparent who was in Nagasaki or Hiroshima during WWII and didn't have family in Canada who were put into internment camps AND AA is willing to go 7 years at $18million per season and we throw in a Hello Kitty Car for his girlfriend/wife/him if he's the sort.

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]480[/ATTACH]

 

I thought saying "Your Sofu build our railroads" would be a selling point.

[Convo]

Just wondering what people think the odds are . I have already posted I think it is less than 1 %

 

ZERO

 

capp filler

[Convo]

50/50

 

They either will or won't

 

How does this get a Thanks - it's dum

[John_Havok]

GD was the one thanking, so... there ya go.

[ReturnOfTheYeti]

50/50

 

They either will or won't

 

Umm, no, that's assuming that the odds of signing are the same as the odds of not signing. By that same (very faulty) logic, one could say that the odds are 50/50 that I'll win the lottery (either I will or I won't).