The one and only Masahiro Tanaka posting and bidding thread

[flafson]

Option C - give Stroman and Hutch a full chance to prove they can do it and maybe secure some positive value before taking some chances on high performance positive value.

 

Isn't that what they did in 2012?

[kgm1]

Option C - give Stroman and Hutch a full chance to prove they can do it and maybe secure some positive value before taking some chances on high performance positive value.

 

I think I have made my view pretty strongly that we have so many holes in this lineup that the odds of getting to the playoffs are so slim it would be crazy to gut the minors trying .

 

So option C except I start with McGowan in the rotation till He is either injured ,or maxed out in innnings then go with the next best Kid which should be Stroman .

 

Let's see what we have at the trade deadline then some good trades like Rasmus for ?? and maybe Buehrle after eating some money could put us in a position to go either way with this team in the 2014 off season, Gut or All in.

[kgm1]

I hate this ,""" Well we were all in last year so now we really have to make stupid moves """ Two wrongs never make a right . Rogers forced the issue but now unless they were willing to put up huge $$$ which they aren't it is time to revaluate . Hell I changed the way I think we should go as soon as I saw the drunken sailors overpaying . Money talent and willingness to play in Toronto just isn't there so go with what you have .

[TheHurl]

Isn't that what they did in 2012?

 

No they added guys that at their best might have provided value, while having too many that were negative value on the team (and traded players that could have immediately provided positive value). I'm over simplifying things here but it's easier to find value in min salary guys who can provide 2 WAR if they play to their potential than it is to find $20M players that can provide 5 WAR. Both have approximately the same worth when you are analyzing a team based on value (obviously depending on your view of $/WAR). The Jays had a bunch of min salary guys that were replacement level or below. If they all played their best (lightning in a bottle) most of the Jays positive value would have come from EE, JB and Lawrie. Guys like DeRosa, Kawasaki, Rogers and Goins probably played to their max value. This is why I say I like this years team so much better than last year's...there are guys that I think can play to solid positive value (and we shouldn't have huge negatives playing everyday...hopefully), now the supposed big guys need to step up. It's still a hope and pray method but if they are quick to move the useless, they have more potential waiting.

[TheHurl]

I think I have made my view pretty strongly that we have so many holes in this lineup that the odds of getting to the playoffs are so slim it would be crazy to gut the minors trying .

 

So option C except I start with McGowan in the rotation till He is either injured ,or maxed out in innnings then go with the next best Kid which should be Stroman .

 

Considering it's going to be so long before McGowan can give you a lot of innings as a starter I think I'd rather just throw him in the pen and keep him there until his arm falls off

[connorp]

So..im on my phone and dont feel like going through all the thread...

But so how does the new system work. $20m posting fee now.. that i assume still goes back if he doesnt sign anywhere..

 

But is it still a blind bid or can he negotiate like a FA?

 

I havent thought of how the blind bid helps anyone. Seems stupid though. Guy should just be FA

[Abomination]

So..im on my phone and dont feel like going through all the thread...

But so how does the new system work. $20m posting fee now.. that i assume still goes back if he doesnt sign anywhere..

 

But is it still a blind bid or can he negotiate like a FA?

 

I havent thought of how the blind bid helps anyone. Seems stupid though. Guy should just be FA

 

I think what they should do is if the player agrees to be posted, a certain percentage of their AAV on the contract (only for the years the Japan team would still have control over them for) goes to the posting team. Maybe that's 25% or 50%, but whatever it is that would seem the best way to approach it. Completely eliminate the bidding nonsense.

[connorp]

I think what they should do is if the player agrees to be posted, a certain

percentage of their AAV on the contract (only for the years the Japan team would still have control over them for) goes to the posting team. Maybe that's 25% or 50%, but whatever it is that would seem the best way to approach it. Completely eliminate the bidding nonsense.

 

Well I understand why they wouldnt do it that way. That way, the Japan team wont know the amount upfront and wouldnt know if it was worth it before allowing their player to take time and effort away from Japan ball to do the mlb FA thing, travel to US and such.

 

But he should at least just be FA once Japan team agrees on $20m

[o2cui2i]

I think what they should do is if the player agrees to be posted, a certain percentage of their AAV on the contract (only for the years the Japan team would still have control over them for) goes to the posting team. Maybe that's 25% or 50%, but whatever it is that would seem the best way to approach it. Completely eliminate the bidding nonsense.

 

yes, because taking away any good player japan has, because their league has less money, is the right thing to do.

[o2cui2i]

So..im on my phone and dont feel like going through all the thread...

But so how does the new system work. $20m posting fee now.. that i assume still goes back if he doesnt sign anywhere..

 

But is it still a blind bid or can he negotiate like a FA?

 

I havent thought of how the blind bid helps anyone. Seems stupid though. Guy should just be FA

 

MLB have an agreement in place with the Japanese league that says they wont rape Japanese. the Japanese team put a lot of time and energy into developing young players. it's only fair they get value from their investment. since MLBPA would never let players be traded to japan and the players would never go there if they still had a career, they have to have a post fee so the Japanese teams get return on their investment. in north america teams just trade assets.

 

players can be FA in Japan and come to the USA if they play out their entire draft contract with their home team. the Japanese just try to get value out of players they know are going anyways.

 

the new idea of a fixed posting fee is interesting. not as good for the Japanese teams for sure. a lot better for the Japanese players coming to the USA.

 

 

Player has full right to pick from any team who puts up a bid of 20M. 8 to 21 teams will be in with a shout, but it's going to have to be a huge contract. final cost wont be any different from Darvish deal, but the player will get a bigger piece and the Japanese team gets about 30M less. not sure why Nippon agreed to this.

[Abomination]

yes, because taking away any good player japan has, because their league has less money, is the right thing to do.

 

I think you misunderstood. The team would still have to decide to post the player, and the player would still have to agree to be posted.

[o2cui2i]

the bidding is already gone. it's a set fee of 20M. then it's up to the teams to blow the guy until he decides who to play for.

[Abomination]

the bidding is already gone. it's a set fee of 20M. then it's up to the teams to blow the guy until he decides who to play for.

 

I know that, my point was that it would be better to replace that system to eliminate all players just being posted for 20M whether they're currently worth it or not in an attempt by the teams to boost their finances. A percentage of the AAV for the years that the player would be under control in Japan would do that.

[connorp]

the bidding is already gone. it's a set fee of 20M. then it's up to the teams to blow the guy until he decides who to play for.

 

Yeah I understand why Japan team would get $. Just that he should be FA after that. But sounds like he is. So he can pick the team he goes to after knowing what theyre offering?

[o2cui2i]

Yeah I understand why Japan team would get $. Just that he should be FA after that. But sounds like he is. So he can pick the team he goes to after knowing what theyre offering?

 

exactly... the change is all plus for the player and the american team that signs him. minus for the japanese team. I think they would have got a lot more than 20M in a blind big.

[connorp]

I know that, my point was that it would be better to replace that system to eliminate all players just being posted for 20M whether they're currently worth it or not in an attempt by the teams to boost their finances. A percentage of the AAV for the years that the player would be under control in Japan would do that.

 

Oh yeah, that makes sense for lesser players. Just with the Yu's and Tanaka's it doesnt

[raBBit]

To me, it's between the Yankees, Dodgers and the Cubs.

 

Sources out here in Chicago say, "Theo Epstein will not be outbid." Take it FWIW but that's the quote we hear daily over here.

[GD]

To me, it's between the Yankees, Dodgers and the Cubs.

 

Sources out here in Chicago say, "Theo Epstein will not be outbid." Take it FWIW but that's the quote we hear daily over here.

 

Throw the Mariners in and yeah, sounds about right. I think the finalists will be the Cubs and Dodgers and the Yankees and Mariners will be strongly interested. Idk who beats out who for Tanaka but as a wild guess, the Dodgers' west coast-ness probably helps.

[jays4life19]

To me, it's between the Yankees, Dodgers and the Cubs.

 

Sources out here in Chicago say, "Theo Epstein will not be outbid." Take it FWIW but that's the quote we hear daily over here.

 

I agree that Theo and the Cubs will be very aggressive to land him. Real question is how much Tanaka would want to play for the Cubs. Reports seem to indicate that he prefers the west coast. (dodgers). Also, it always seems like Japanese players have a boner to play for the Yankees.

 

You're absolutely right though. Yankees, Cubs or Dodgers.

[o2cui2i]

Throw the Mariners in and yeah, sounds about right. I think the finalists will be the Cubs and Dodgers and the Yankees and Mariners will be strongly interested. Idk who beats out who for Tanaka but as a wild guess, the Dodgers' west coast-ness probably helps.

 

it will be interesting to see how long of a contract Tanaka wants. if he comes over and is amazing like darvish, he'll want 4 years and then be a FA again to net a ridiculous deal... or will he go the safe route and sign for 6 right away?

[o2cui2i]

I agree that Theo and the Cubs will be very aggressive to land him. Real question is how much Tanaka would want to play for the Cubs. Reports seem to indicate that he prefers the west coast. (dodgers). Also, it always seems like Japanese players have a boner to play for the Yankees.

 

You're absolutely right though. Yankees, Cubs or Dodgers.

 

if the Ms have any money left after the Cano deal... they will be another option.

 

if the jays had only missed the playoffs by a couple games last year they might have been able to lure him in the promise of being a winning team, but that ship has sailed and I dont think it's due back in port for a while.

[jays4life19]

if the Ms have any money left after the Cano deal... they will be another option.

 

if the jays had only missed the playoffs by a couple games last year they might have been able to lure him in the promise of being a winning team, but that ship has sailed and I dont think it's due back in port for a while.

 

By the sounds of it they don't.

[flafson]

I'd be surprised if he cares about anything other than money.

[LunchBox]

Not a fan of the Matsuzaka comparison, he's clearly better than Dice-K but probably lesser than Yu.

 

Hopefully the Darvish/Chapman experiences don't result in the organization doing whatever it takes this time around in order to land Tanaka.

 

Post the twenty-million, appraise his worth and extend a contract offer of commensurate value, try and sell him on the city and team.

 

Should he chose to sign elsewhere, the remaining "Plan B" options available are still a better alternative than overpaying Tanaka as some kind of "Darvish redemption" IMO.

[o2cui2i]

Not a fan of the Matsuzaka comparison, he's clearly better than Dice-K but probably lesser than Yu.

 

Hopefully the Darvish/Chapman experiences don't result in the organization doing whatever it takes this time around in order to land Tanaka.

 

Post the twenty-million, appraise his worth and extend a contract offer of commensurate value, try and sell him on the city and team.

 

Should he chose to sign elsewhere, the remaining "Plan B" options available are still a better alternative than overpaying Tanaka as some kind of "Darvish redemption" IMO.

 

the 20M is less than trading Stroman or any other top prospect. the rest is simply contract and if they can get him for under 20M per year max 5 year, then they should do it. it fits this window and they can always sell him 3 years from now for a good price if they decide to rebuild....

 

it's not going to be a bad investment as long as it stays under 120M total for 5 years. with inflation and value of wins increasing it would be less than Darvish and probably about where it should be.

[LunchBox]

the 20M is less than trading Stroman or any other top prospect. .

 

Trading Stroman is absolutely not Plan B. In fact he's integral as I don't think it's unreasonable to expect him to preform comparably to Tanaka at a FRACTION of the cost.

[o2cui2i]

Trading Stroman is absolutely not Plan B. In fact he's integral as I don't think it's unreasonable to expect him to preform comparably to Tanaka at a FRACTION of the cost.

 

I'd like to have both. bring Stroman up whenever one of the starters falls apart.

 

not caring about order...

 

Tanaka

Dickey

Buehrle

Morrow

McGowan...

 

Add stroman when either McGowan or Morrow's arm falls off. Happ as long man and depth. then they have Hutch coming back and hopefully taking up the slack when the second of the two glass men goes down.

 

 

and yes, I think Stroman is worth more than the 20M.

[Vdubfan]

Here is a random team that makes sense TO ME to bid on Tanaka: Houston Astros

 

this may seem odd, but Houston apparently was very involved in the Choo talks, so they are willing to spend some money. They have such a low payroll, all of his posting fee and a big first year contract would be easily manageable.

 

Reasons why

 

-Some excitement for a suffering fan base for 2014

-Below market value cost yearly beginning in 2015

-Potential of a 2015 rotation Rodon/Tanaka/Appel/Feldman/#5 is scary, and hurries up the rebuilding process (at a VERY cheap price for YEARS)

 

Haven't seen this connection before, but as Astros GM/Ownership, I'd be very into this.

[LunchBox]

Tanaka

Dickey

Buehrle

Morrow

McGowan...

.

 

McGowan has no business in the rotation. Stroman, Hutch, Drabek, Nolin, Happ all see starts before McGowan.

[ElNik2013]

McGowan has no business in the rotation. Stroman, Hutch, Drabek, Nolin, Happ all see starts before McGowan.

 

 

 

I'd really like to see Stroman, Hutchison, Drabek and Nolin get their time at AAA. If the Jays get Tanaka or any of the other FA pitchers, I see no reason to rush any of these 4 when they have Happ, Rogers and Redmond as #5s.