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TwistedLogic Cooperstown

TwistedLogic

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
But they'd be earning much less in the first contract, right? Earning money from two different teams/contracts isn't necessarily advantageous.

 

Good post. So Scherzer's contract is worth about the same as a flat-weighted 7/170, which seems reasonable. Cameron's economics degree pays off :P

 

Max Scherzer at 170/7 is not reasonable.

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Spanky99
Spanky99

Nah, the rumour according to Morisi, is they're trying to move Andrus. Yet, in this circumstance Profar or Odor make sense.

LunchBox College Ball

LunchBox

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
How much more value will Zimemrmann return than the two picks they miss out on by keeping him and not signing Scherzer? I'd much prefer scenario 1 and re-evaluate in 2016 with a loaded SP market.

 

Precisely my thought regarding this trade, I like the Nats, but arguably this is a lateral move at best. Presumably Boras pitched it as sign Scherzer, flip an existing SP for some controllable/high-upside pieces that mitigate the potential impending loss of Desmond/Stras/Zimm to FA. Personally I'd rather keep the draft picks, Souza, greater financial flexibility, and try a mini-retool of the roster by moving Werth or something to that effect. Essentially they've achieved a marginal upgrade at SP this year, in a division they were already prepared to win easily and created some very real issues for the future.

KingKat All-Star

KingKat

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Precisely my thought regarding this trade, I like the Nats, but arguably this is a lateral move at best. Presumably Boras pitched it as sign Scherzer, flip an existing SP for some controllable/high-upside pieces that mitigate the potential impending loss of Desmond/Stras/Zimm to FA. Personally I'd rather keep the draft picks, Souza, greater financial flexibility, and try a mini-retool of the roster by moving Werth or something to that effect. Essentially they've achieved a marginal upgrade at SP this year, in a division they were already prepared to win easily and created some very real issues for the future.

 

For all we know Boras may have brockered a trade to make the signing happen. I remember him doing something like that for the Red Sox when they signed Adrian Beltre.

GD MVP

GD

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Sure it is.

 

If you project him for 4.5 wins in 2015 and approximate decline at 0.5 per season for seven seasons, he'd produce 21 wins. If you also assume the market pays $7M/win for 2015 (a figure that is probably low) and increases its willingness to pay by 5% every season, Scherzer will generate $165M of value. If you revise the current figure to $8M/win, Scherzer projects to generate $189M over the course of the contract. 170/7 is right in line with the market.

 

I was too lazy to do the math lol.

 

Via NJH:

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2013/12/01/a-primer-and-review-on-value-calculations-part-1/

These will be the value calculation figures that we will use at Breaking Blue for all transaction analysis: $7.5M $/WAR in 2014 with 9% $/WAR growth per future season.
LunchBox College Ball

LunchBox

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Yes it's easy lol but i'm sick and lazy and i knew some fellow nerd would so i win hah

 

Perhaps, but minus points for being publicly "out Jewished" by another poster :P

GD MVP

GD

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Perhaps, but minus points for being publicly "out Jewished" by another poster :P

 

Kvetching about being sick awards me +100 jew points tho

L54 Vancouver Canadians

L54

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Is there (or has this point ever been reached) a point in forecasting, where the market becomes stagnant and player salaries don't continue to rise at the same rate as inflation?

 

I'm not very economically savvy beyond basics.

 

What kind of impact does the price of oil have on the MLB? I've been reading about the possibility of economic collapses in the US due to this.

 

I'd be interested in hearing from someone who has a background or a good idea of this type of thing.

jaysfan2014 Dunedin Blue Jays

jaysfan2014

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Is there (or has this point ever been reached) a point in forecasting, where the market becomes stagnant and player salaries don't continue to rise at the same rate as inflation?

 

I'm not very economically savvy beyond basics.

 

What kind of impact does the price of oil have on the MLB? I've been reading about the possibility of economic collapses in the US due to this.

 

I'd be interested in hearing from someone who has a background or a good idea of this type of thing.

 

The only way you'll see salaries drop is if the cable bubble bursts for TV rights (which I expect to happen soon), plus attendance drops significantly due to a slowing economy. A lockout next CBA could stop the rise as well.. which is very likely to happen after the 2016 season. As for the drop in oil, it affects Alberta and parts of the US where shale oil is drilled.

 

As for lockouts, be glad this isn't the NBA.. a nasty lockout is expected at the end of the current CBA, with owners and players really angry at each other because of the increased TV money and demands for higher salaries, despite the fact many owners are crying poor because of the rising cap.

AdamGreenwood Dunedin Blue Jays

AdamGreenwood

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Is there (or has this point ever been reached) a point in forecasting, where the market becomes stagnant and player salaries don't continue to rise at the same rate as inflation?

 

I'm not very economically savvy beyond basics.

 

What kind of impact does the price of oil have on the MLB? I've been reading about the possibility of economic collapses in the US due to this.

 

I'd be interested in hearing from someone who has a background or a good idea of this type of thing.

 

The US is a net importer of oil, so as a whole, it should improve the economy as the cost of production goes down, making more businesses feasible.

However, that optimism needs to be tempered with uncertainty, as the price of oil is extremely unpredictable, so many businesses will not invest if their business model is dependent on a $60 barrel of oil.

 

Those adversely affected by it will be the big oil regions, particularly areas such as Alberta where the cost of production is higher than the current price of oil.

The Tar Sands will be shutting down indefinitely until the price of oil goes up, and even then irreparable damage will be done, because of the infrastructure/employees affected.

 

As for TV deals don't expect the madness to abate any time soon. With an ever-increasing percentage of viewership going online, and streaming, most of those shows have no commercials.

It's reality TV and sports that are commanding the big advertising dollars now, because people tend to watch those live, and the commercials are inescapable.

King All-Star

King

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

So I just ventured to the baseball subforum on HFBoards....

 

Fowler and Valbuena is more of a push, if not nod to Valbuena. The Astros maybe added like half a win from Fowler to Valbuena but like two wins by not playing Dominguez.

 

This is where I don't get these advanced stats. Valbuena has been awful every year except last, and Dominguez has had a couple decent years, how can you say with confidence that it's an upgrade?

 

Luis Valbuena has been an average to above average player for the past 3 years... He's an incredible utility guy who can play everyday if need be.

 

Dominguez is an absolute liability with the bat and his defensive abilities have been vastly overstated. He's really nothing more than a AAAA guy.

 

What stat am I missing here? 2012 and 2013 he had a horrible average, nothing spectacular about HR and RBI totals (even projected out through a full season of ABs), and OBP, OPS, and SLG can be described as mediocre at best. How was he average?

 

Even by standard measure, how is a .700+ OPS guy at 3B that can play multiple positions not average? He's a guy who you can expect to draw a lot of walks, hit for decent power, and play average to good defense depending on the position.

 

If Dominquez is better this year I get your job, deal?

 

HR and RBI totals. How cute.

 

Ya, because those don't matter anymore, right? Adorable.

 

http://i.imgur.com/tZOS8.gif

BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Not only did you go to HFBoards, but you opened a baseball thread there. You are dumn beyond all comprehension.
Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Not only did you go to HFBoards, but you opened a baseball thread there. You are dumn beyond all comprehension.

 

Then for some reason he thought we'd want to share in it.

Orgfiller All-Star

Orgfiller

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I don't get it, there was one really dumn guy and two others criticizing him whilst using more advanced stats, at least it's not the O's board.
King All-Star

King

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Speaking of the O's hangout, I got banned before I could post.

 

http://i.imgur.com/nbBJEUU.png

 

Hey Weams, if you are reading this, Go f*** yourself buddy!

BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Speaking of the O's hangout, I got banned before I could post.

 

http://i.imgur.com/nbBJEUU.png

 

Hey Weams, if you are reading this, Go f*** yourself buddy!

 

Pretty s***** considering their posters have been welcomed here and it has led to decent discussion.

Orgfiller All-Star

Orgfiller

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Speaking of the O's hangout, I got banned before I could post.

 

http://i.imgur.com/nbBJEUU.png

 

Hey Weams, if you are reading this, Go f*** yourself buddy!

 

Did you by any chance sign up with the same name or a Blue Jays related name?

King All-Star

King

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I signed up as jomar_reyes_fan8 and didn't get clearance to post either.

 

Spent a couple days in "your account is being reviewed" territory before seemingly no longer having an account (can't log in).

 

 

We're talking about weams, so... likely.

 

Maybe Weams doesn't allow IPs from Canada.

Deadpool Buffalo Bisons

Deadpool

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Hmm. I'll have to try again in a week or so using a VPN.

 

Nice to know the OriolesHangout is scared of us at least. We got a good rivalry going.

 

If this is your idea of a rivalry, sure...

 

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view6/2237335/zangief-kid-o.gif

TheHurl Toronto Blue Jays

TheHurl

Site Manager
Posted
Posted
Not only did you go to HFBoards, but you opened a baseball thread there. You are dumn beyond all comprehension.

 

He should get Guy #1 to post here though.

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