Around Baseball 2014

[King]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/spring-training-deadline-for-justin-upton-extension-talks.html

 

Justin Upton will not negotiate a contact extension once Spring Training starts, his agent tells MLB Network Radio (audio link). Larry Reynolds says he will “never say no to anything” and “will take it as it comes” when asked by hosts Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette whether Upton is open to an extension with the Padres or is intent on hitting free agency.

 

Reynolds also acknowledged the Braves never approached him about a long-term contract for Upton, who will earn $14.5MM in 2015, and wasn’t surprised by the trade, especially after Jason Heyward was dealt to the Cardinals. The Padres acquired Upton in a six-player swap with the Braves Friday and may be comfortable with the idea of him being a one-year rental knowing draft pick compensation is possible with a qualifying offer.

[GD]

"will never say to anything"

 

inb4 17 year, $1 contract.

[TheHurl]

Sorry if it was discussed already (I don't know when the rumour even came out). Padres talking about flipping Wil Myers for Hamels.

[Chappy]

Sorry if it was discussed already (I don't know when the rumour even came out). Padres talking about flipping Wil Myers for Hamels.

 

Hey you gonna reply to my pm?

[Atothe]

If the padres trade Myers and some ******** for hamels, thats a damn good offseason

[TheHurl]

Hey you gonna reply to my pm?

 

Probably in March. So hard to look at my team closely to see where I am when I don't even know who's on it. Likely I'll be in the going for it category.

 

If the padres trade Myers and some ******** for hamels, thats a damn good offseason

 

Blue Jays 2013

[L54]

Meh, the Jays added around two pretty good middle of the order bats.

[Abomination]

Sorry if it was discussed already (I don't know when the rumour even came out). Padres talking about flipping Wil Myers for Hamels.

 

Yes please! This would help me in the LOD immensely.

[TheHurl]

Yes please! This would help me in the LOD immensely.

 

Will much change for him changing parks in that format (other than perception and value). I also feel that even in traditional fantasy formats...that SD defense would do more damage to Hamels numbers than the positives of a few less HR's (which he's been pretty good with HR's in the past couple years anyway)

[L54]

The Twins have agreed to a three-year, $42MM extension with Phil Hughes, reports Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Hughes, who had been controlled through 2016, will now be under control through the 2019 season.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/twins-to-extend-phil-hughes.html

[BTS]

The Twins have agreed to a three-year, $42MM extension with Phil Hughes, reports Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Hughes, who had been controlled through 2016, will now be under control through the 2019 season.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/twins-to-extend-phil-hughes.html

 

This is probably a good move. Having under contract for 5 years @ $58 M for his age-29-33 seasons is solid.

[Boxcar]

Will much change for him changing parks in that format (other than perception and value). I also feel that even in traditional fantasy formats...that SD defense would do more damage to Hamels numbers than the positives of a few less HR's (which he's been pretty good with HR's in the past couple years anyway)

 

(He has Myers, dummy)

[Brenner]

This is probably a good move. Having under contract for 5 years @ $58 M for his age-29-33 seasons is solid.

 

I'm not sure, think I'd just take the 2 @ 16 they had locked in already and roll the dice. Why expose yourself to a long-term deal with a pitcher if you don't have to.

[Orgfiller]

I'm not sure, think I'd just take the 2 @ 16 they had locked in already and roll the dice. Why expose yourself to a long-term deal with a pitcher if you don't have to.

 

His value could drastically increase if he has another year half as good as the last one. If his talent level is around that then the Twins can get a lot of surplus value out of that deal.

[KingKat]

His value could drastically increase if he has another year half as good as the last one. If his talent level is around that then the Twins can get a lot of surplus value out of that deal.

 

His value could also drastically decrease. I'm not a fan of taking on risk when you don't have to. I'd take the two years and wait and see. If he's really good you get two cheap years, maybe an outside chance of resigning him for more more and otherwise a Q.O opportunity. There's really not much downside to that. I don't see why you would force the issue and spend extra money that you don't really need to spend.

 

Remember when everyone criticized the Giants for going year to year with Lincecum? That turned out to be exactly the right thing to do.

[Orgfiller]

His value could also drastically decrease. I'm not a fan of taking on risk when you don't have to. I'd take the two years and wait and see. If he's really good you get two cheap years, maybe an outside chance of resigning him for more more and otherwise a Q.O opportunity. There's really not much downside to that. I don't see why you would force the issue and spend extra money that you don't really need to spend.

 

Remember when everyone criticized the Giants for going year to year with Lincecum? That turned out to be exactly the right thing to do.

Just the fact that Hughes is a pitcher makes your point a valid one, but the way I see it the Twins took a small risk for a potentially large reward. Until 2019 Hughes has to be worth no more than 1.5-2.0 WAR per year to make the deal a fair one, and if his 2014 was any indication of his true talent then it's practically a steal. I don't think when this current contract ended that Hughes would be willing to sign such a team-friendly deal, since we've seen how the SP market has evolved.

[KingKat]

I don't think when this current contract ended that Hughes would be willing to sign such a team-friendly deal

 

I just don't understand concerning yourself with that. So what if he doesn't sign a deal like that in two years. You still had him for two years at 16 million and that's a win. You take the profit, move on and let someone else worry about what he's worth by then.

[Gorlak]

His value could also drastically decrease. I'm not a fan of taking on risk when you don't have to. I'd take the two years and wait and see. If he's really good you get two cheap years, maybe an outside chance of resigning him for more more and otherwise a Q.O opportunity. There's really not much downside to that. I don't see why you would force the issue and spend extra money that you don't really need to spend.

 

Remember when everyone criticized the Giants for going year to year with Lincecum? That turned out to be exactly the right thing to do.

 

Good thing AA didn't do that with Bautista or Edwin.

[KingKat]

Good thing AA didn't do that with Bautista or Edwin.

 

Actually he didn't. He had less than two years of control in both cases which is a case of AA learning from the mistake of Romero and Morrow and actually you bringing it up those cases makes an important point I failed to make. The notion that the opportunity to sign a player to a team friendly deal will dissapear if you don't do it right away is a flawed notion. You never know what can happen. Instead of playing Nostradamus, there's something to be said for just taking a wait and see approach. Edwin signed his deal in the second half of the last season of control. While you shouldn't assume that something like that will happen, you shouldn't over-extend yourself on the assumption that it won't either.

[Gorlak]

Actually he didn't. He had less than two years of control in both cases which is a case of AA learning from the mistake of Romero and Morrow and actually you bringing it up those cases makes an important point I failed to make. The notion that the opportunity to sign a player to a team friendly deal will dissapear if you don't do it right away is a flawed notion. You never know what can happen. Instead of playing Nostradamus, there's something to be said for just taking a wait and see approach. Edwin signed his deal in the second half of the last season of control. While you shouldn't assume that something like that will happen, you shouldn't over-extend yourself on the assumption that it won't either.

 

He extended them before they had proven their increased level of play was real and permanent. if he had waited those deals would not have been possible. any time you want surplus value you have to make a bet.

[jaysblue]

Because Hughes was worth six wins in 2014 and if he comes close to repeating you won't have the chance to do this next offseason.

 

What about prior to 2014?

[KingKat]

He extended them before they had proven their increased level of play was real and permanent. if he had waited those deals would not have been possible. any time you want surplus value you have to make a bet.

 

Do you know who else hadn't proved his increased level of play was real and permanent? Colby f***in' Rasmus. Stop being so obtuse, AA's m.o. post Morrow/Romero is clearly to wait as long as possible with extension and minizing the risk at the possible (but not guaranteed) risk of extra cost.

[Atothe]

Actually he didn't. He had less than two years of control in both cases which is a case of AA learning from the mistake of Romero and Morrow and actually you bringing it up those cases makes an important point I failed to make. The notion that the opportunity to sign a player to a team friendly deal will dissapear if you don't do it right away is a flawed notion. You never know what can happen. Instead of playing Nostradamus, there's something to be said for just taking a wait and see approach. Edwin signed his deal in the second half of the last season of control. While you shouldn't assume that something like that will happen, you shouldn't over-extend yourself on the assumption that it won't either.

 

Hold on Romero signed his extension in 2010 when he was still good Bautista the off season of 2010. How did he learn from the Romero contract?

[KingKat]

Hold on Romero signed his extension in 2010 when he was still good Bautista the off season of 2010. How did he learn from the Romero contract?

 

Can you rephrase this?

[Atothe]

Can you rephrase this?

The Baustista extension was not influenced at all by the Romero contract

[KingKat]

The Baustista extension was not influenced at all by the Romero contract

 

Oh I see. Yeah I guess Romero hadn't bit him in the ass yet so you're right it probably only influenced the way he handled Encarnacion and Rasmus.

[Brenner]

Just the fact that Hughes is a pitcher makes your point a valid one, but the way I see it the Twins took a small risk for a potentially large reward. Until 2019 Hughes has to be worth no more than 1.5-2.0 WAR per year to make the deal a fair one, and if his 2014 was any indication of his true talent then it's practically a steal. I don't think when this current contract ended that Hughes would be willing to sign such a team-friendly deal, since we've seen how the SP market has evolved.

 

I see it as the total opposite, they are taking a huge risk for little reward. What is the upside on this deal? They are paying him 14 mil a year for those 3 years, so even if he is great there isn't huge surplus value. Whereas he could very well turn into poo again or get injured and be worth nothing. The better play is to let him play out his deal and if he's awesome then great, you got 2 good years for cheap and still have a chance to resign him. If he walks then you still have the $14 mil to use on someone else.

[Gorlak]

Do you know who else hadn't proved his increased level of play was real and permanent? Colby f***in' Rasmus. Stop being so obtuse, AA's m.o. post Morrow/Romero is clearly to wait as long as possible with extension and minizing the risk at the possible (but not guaranteed) risk of extra cost.

 

Or he has some conviction behind his staff's ability to judge a players talent. I would like to think AA is smart enough not to have a rigid stance on anything like that. Each case is unique and should be treated as such.

[KingKat]

I would like to think AA is smart enough not to have a rigid stance on anything like that.

 

What you call a rigid stance, some might simply call good process. Your staff can be wrong (Romero), your staff can be right (Bautista). You have to allow for both possibilities in your planning. No one is Nostrodamus.

[Gorlak]

Oh I see. Yeah I guess Romero hadn't bit him in the ass yet so you're right it probably only influenced the way he handled Encarnacion and Rasmus.

 

I doubt that, may effect the way he approaches Stroman though.