Around Baseball 2014

[John_Havok]

Absolutely, but I'd rather have Happ than not. Everyone assumes if we didn't have Happ, we would spend that money on something else, I'm not certain that is true.

 

Maybe AA would, maybe he wouldn't, but he could if he so chose, that's the point, and if he did, the Jays would likely be further ahead in the win column by using Hutch, trading Happ and then dealing for a 2b upgrade or trying to sign a guy like Drew. I agree with another poster who brought up the point that 5 million shouldn't be stopping the Jays from upgrading 2b on it's own, but I think it's fairly safe to say that AA is actually prepared to go with Goins

[DuckDuckGose]

How many teams are interested in a $5+ million 4.5+ ERA guy who can be relied on to neither start a full season nor pitch deep into games?

 

GMDM will be...

[Atothe]

Maybe AA would, maybe he wouldn't, but he could if he so chose, that's the point, and if he did, the Jays would likely be further ahead in the win column by using Hutch, trading Happ and then dealing for a 2b upgrade or trying to sign a guy like Drew. I agree with another poster who brought up the point that 5 million shouldn't be stopping the Jays from upgrading 2b on it's own, but I think it's fairly safe to say that AA is actually prepared to go with Goins

 

I would hope they let Hutch reestablish himself in the minors before they bring him back up, 6 or 7 starts most dominating

[Angrioter]

Oh I agree that Happ is fine as a 5th starter, I'm just not a fan of spending $5.4 million on him. I know, $/WAR says he's worth it, but that production can be replaced internally and the money could have been put to better use IMO. Do we lose anything with Redmond, Rogers, Hutchison, or Stroman over Happ? Hell, invite a few starters to ST on tryouts and one or two are probably good enough to do what Happ does.

 

Steamer (WAR)

Happ 1

Jerome Williams 1,6

Freddy Garcia 1,4

Joe Saunders 1,4

 

Why pay for crap when you can find in the free agency?

[connorp]

To recap, Chappy and DDG... because i think the point is getting muddied... Nobody is saying Happ's deal is "bad". Nobidy is going to put $/WAR under $5m, even on the conservative side.

 

So theres no argument about whether Happ is "worth" the deal. So everyone agrees on that.

 

It just doesnt make sense for this team when the jays appear to be stuck in the mud with their payroll.

 

Where you guys are clearly wrong is suggesting the other guys are "lottery tickets" when in fact they are projected to provide the same value. So its actually like betting on one team or another in a sports game with the spread. Except youre laying out $5m to win $5m in Happs case.. Or youre betting $500k to win $5m with the other guys.. Pretty obvious choice imo

[John_Havok]

Dammit connorp, you've come a very long way since you first started posting at the old forum. Kudos for being open-minded and willing to explore new ways of looking at baseball.

[Angrioter]

Dammit connorp, you've come a very long way since you first started posting at the old forum. Kudos for being open-minded and willing to explore new ways of looking at baseball.

 

The junction between connorp and Ang has been fruitful for the forum, not just in sexual and latin-lover things ("Trata de Blancas"), his baseball IQ has risen to infinity and beyond

[DuckDuckGose]

Steamer (WAR)

Happ 1

Jerome Williams 1,6

Freddy Garcia 1,4

Joe Saunders 1,4

 

Why pay for crap when you can find in the free agency?

 

Steamer is crap. It's nice that Fangraphs lists a bunch of projections but, the way people preach Steamer as gospel now got tiring very fast.

 

I don't like Oliver either but FWIW Oliver is projecting;

 

JA Happ - 1.6 WAR

Jason Vargas - 1.4 WAR

 

Now how would people feel if AA went out and signed one of these guys to a multi year deal? How would you feel on a 1yr deal at Vargas' $8M AAV?

 

The Jays have already given up assets for Happ, there is no reason to trade the depth that you paid to acquire unless you are replacing it with top end talent.

[DuckDuckGose]

To recap, Chappy and DDG... because i think the point is getting muddied... Nobody is saying Happ's deal is "bad". Nobidy is going to put $/WAR under $5m, even on the conservative side.

 

So theres no argument about whether Happ is "worth" the deal. So everyone agrees on that.

 

It just doesnt make sense for this team when the jays appear to be stuck in the mud with their payroll.

 

Where you guys are clearly wrong is suggesting the other guys are "lottery tickets" when in fact they are projected to provide the same value. So its actually like betting on one team or another in a sports game with the spread. Except youre laying out $5m to win $5m in Happs case.. Or youre betting $500k to win $5m with the other guys.. Pretty obvious choice imo

 

Risk management is as important as asset management in sports. s*** happens and you need to be prepared for it. Furthermore if you truly believe that a combination of FA signings and the Jays current depth can get them through a season with +200IP of low 4 ERA/FIP ball then move Buehrle. That is exactly what he will provide but he actually has a brutal contract.

[connorp]

Risk management is as important as asset management in sports. s*** happens and you need to be prepared for it. Furthermore if you truly believe that a combination of FA signings and the Jays current depth can get them through a season with +200IP of low 4 ERA/FIP ball then move Buehrle. That is exactly what he will provide but he actually has a brutal contract.

 

Im personally good with moving MB..but dont trust the Jays to reinvest it wisely or reinvest it at all..

[KingKat]

Steamer is crap.

 

It has the best track record of all the projection systems so if it's crap, they're all crap (which is probably what you believe anyways but I thought I would clear that up).

[Angrioter]

Steamer is crap.

 

DuckDuckGose projections link please

BTS masterpieces joke

[Nox]

Steamer is crap.

 

Link to GOOSE projections?

[Nox]

DuckDuckGose projections link please

BTS masterpieces joke

 

God dammit.

[DuckDuckGose]

It has the best track record of all the projection systems so if it's crap, they're all crap (which is probably what you believe anyways but I thought I would clear that up).

 

We'll never see the best projection systems because they are proprietary knowledge. I'd love to see the Rays projection system but, the ones that are publicly available are seriously lacking. I think the part that irks me the most is the definite number the system produces and fans quote. If they used a range or performance percentiles it would be a lot more useful.

[DuckDuckGose]

Link to GOOSE projections?

 

My projections are worse. Haha. I don't blame people for trying but it's tiring how often these systems are quoted as gospel.

[Angrioter]

Link to JFaS projections: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiKIdMktKhYNdElkcl9tOC1DY05ZZVN1cDg5c0dKR0E&usp=sharing#gid=0

 

[TheHurl]

Link to GOOSE projections?

 

It's about time you got up to Ang's posting level.

[Nox]

It's about time you got up to Ang's posting level.

 

One day you'll join us in the upper tier.

[Nox]

publicly available are seriously lacking.

 

When compared to what exactly?

 

Just because the Rays are pretty smart doesn't mean they're going to be able to tame the large amount of inherent randomness in baseball.

[connorp]

We'll never see the best projection systems because they are proprietary knowledge. I'd love to see the Rays projection system but, the ones that are publicly available are seriously lacking. I think the part that irks me the most is the definite number the system produces and fans quote. If they used a range or performance percentiles it would be a lot more useful.

 

I agree with you here. Posted that one time. I think teams can build on the projections made. Think of Nox and JFAS but all roided up cranially speaking. I think someone could build on the existing formula with a more individualized approach by dedicating man hours that Steamer and such arent willing to do.

[DuckDuckGose]

Link to JFaS projections: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiKIdMktKhYNdElkcl9tOC1DY05ZZVN1cDg5c0dKR0E&usp=sharing#gid=0

 

If you are interested in learning more about JFaS' projections please check out his blog post here;

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/01/04/2014-breaking-blue-pitcher-projections/

 

He's been pumping out great content since the blog started and deserves the clicks.

[Nox]

I think someone could build on the existing formula with a more individualized approach by dedicating man hours that Steamer and such arent willing to do.

 

There are maybe 5 MLB teams that have something as good as Steamer in house on a per inning basis. Projecting health is something where they have a leverage-able information advantage but what's available publicly is pretty good for healthy performance.

[DuckDuckGose]

When compared to what exactly?

 

Just because the Rays are pretty smart doesn't mean they're going to be able to tame the large amount of inherent randomness in baseball.

 

I should back off a bit from that strong statement because I do think projections are useful. I hate the way they are listed on Fangraphs and I hate the way fans use them. Projection does not mean outcome. It's just a statistically probable scenario. I'd be far more interested in a projection range than a definite number.

[z3r0s]

You can mentally apply a range yourself, with projection as a mean.

 

I think what he means is too many people don't do this and just try to use it as a mostly definite number.

 

I don't share view, but I think that's what he is saying.

[Nox]

I should back off a bit from that strong statement because I do think projections are useful. I hate the way they are listed on Fangraphs and I hate the way fans use them. Projection does not mean outcome. It's just a statistically probable scenario. I'd be far more interested in a projection range than a definite number.

 

The lack of confidence/credibility intervals is simply a marketing thing. Most people don't want to see them, nor would they know what to do with them. The proprietors have them buried away. Szymborski will quote them once in a while for ZIPs.

[DuckDuckGose]

You can mentally apply a range yourself, with projection as a mean.

 

 

I do JFaS and one of the big things I look at is PA and IP to do that. How many fans know that though? It got frustrating seasons ago and it's only getting worse.

 

FWIW I think if you graphed your projections in terms of probabilities and people could see the distribution of your projection it would be a very interesting blog post.

[Angrioter]

When compared to what exactly?

 

Just because the Rays are pretty smart doesn't mean they're going to be able to tame the large amount of inherent randomness in baseball.

 

We don't live in an ideal world like...... Matrix?.

This is reality. The Rays also screw things up sometimes......in a lowest grade than the Jays, of course.

[DuckDuckGose]

I think what he means is too many people don't do this and just try to use it as a mostly definite number.

 

I don't share view, but I think that's what he is saying.

 

Ya, exactly Zeros. It's becoming a ranking system for fans (because that's the kind of data they want for fantasy leagues and couch GMing) and it shouldn't be used that way.

[DuckDuckGose]

The lack of confidence/credibility intervals is simply a marketing thing. Most people don't want to see them, nor would they know what to do with them. The proprietors have them buried away. Szymborski will quote them once in a while for ZIPs.

 

Couldn't agree more.