Davidi: Jays looking at "in house options"

[Candy Maldonado]

I work 12 hours a day make 6 figures

 

No jokes

 

One hundred thousand plus posts on message boards per year is hard work.

[jaysblue]

We should set something up in January and catch an NFL game.

 

I'm going to Australia in January haha, though I'm good anytime in February or even now in December since I'm off for the Christmas break.

[Chappy]

I'm going to Australia in January haha, though I'm good anytime in February or even now in December since I'm off for the Christmas break.

 

I guess February then cause I'm assuming some people will be busy over the holidays. Make sure you invite MohYou.

[jaysblue]

I guess February then cause I'm assuming some people will be busy over the holidays. Make sure you invite MohYou.

 

Yeah sounds good. Maybe catch a Team Canada hockey game since the Olympics will be on. Gibbers is a huge hockey fan so I'm sure he'll be pumped haha

[GeorgiaPeach]

Actually BTS , You were the one pointing out the the payroll limitations and were right . I just don't agree that overpaying for guys like Infante would fix the situation . I just think there are too many question marks . Melky ??? , Morrow ??? Bench ??? ,Goins ??? Navarro ??? and add a s***** free agent class to the mix . Too many holes and not enough money or talent to fix them . Besides most of that talent won't come here .

 

Hope and Pray the the Diabetic Duo catch lightning in a bottle . The injury god focuses on the Red Sox and Yanks and we keep our decimated farm talent intact .

 

I wish they'd stop messing around with McGowan. Just leave him in the pen and try and move him up the ladder into a higher leverage role.

 

As much as people aren't fond of Gose being in a FT role, he'd be a massive upgrade defensively in LF and not much of a downer at the plate compared to the amount of time the Jays wasted running Melky out to LF in 2013. But, I would still prefer to see if Melky's ready and run with him early in 2014.

 

Morrow had question marks surrounding him in 2013, just more, so its same old, same old.

 

I don't think we're in that much worse shape than 2013.....its just a matter of what transpires.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Imagine you're the GM of a team that just grossly underperformed. The boss tells you in order to retain your job security going forward it is imperative that the team remains competitive in 2014. What do you do?

 

If my boss is Beeston, I abide by his direction so I keep my job. If he attempts to give any further advice or demands what players or types of players to target, I listen, comply and immediately start the countdown of when my contract runs out with the hopes of landing a job elsewhere where I have more autonomy.

 

I'm not suggesting this happened (although you'd have to assume it did), but stripping the team down of pieces that were just recently required and/or pieces that were signed to highly valuable extensions would require this front office to completely swallow their pride. THEY built this roster and it's too late for them to differ from the plan they sold to everyone last year.

 

I agree with this and what is actually happening/going down. And its a shame that a mid/high market team is pretending to be something it isn't. I hope Beeston isn't living out this Mike Illitch type legacy dream from the President's seat.

 

The issue here is what BTS brought up. Our front office cannot seem to set their sights on the middle tier grouping of players that would each respectively bring a marginal increase in wins. How are we not giving Infante 41+ million or Ellis 2 years? Instead we're supposedly scouring the trade market for pitchers that would almost ALWAYS require us to give up Sanchez, Stroman and others. That's the standard Alex set last offseason with the Dickey trade and that's why he's not going to be the guy for us going forward.

 

Apparently he tried for Anibal and Peavy and fell short. So he settled on a panic move in getting Dickey. IMO Alex should target a couple FA's from the guys available each year. Know he's going to overpay in years and money and go overboard because the Jays HAVE to and just do it.

 

Let this year blow up in the face of our management, allow Rogers to gut the entire place and then we can start the process of "going back to what we were doing". That may seem unreasonable, but I think it's clear as day that with Alex in charge, we're never going to be a team with a patient and structured approach.

 

My interest in the team will wane further if its a series of windows to contend and rebuild windows every few years. Its what the Marlins did for years and its f***ing dumb. It's a very hollow way to build a team.

[Angrioter]

cap filler?

[GeorgiaPeach]

I have said all off season that you give it till Trade deadline and see where you are but don't gut the minors trying to get there and still think that way . Compounding the wrongs of last year by overpaying in money and years to sign a 1 or 2 war player is senseless when you have so many question marks .

If Morrow is hurt again all year , Melky is done and Navrrao reverts back to the fat lazy bastard he was in Tampa then Samardzija and Infante would still put us as a 4th place team at best 80 wins and we would have another bad contract at 2nd ,a 1 year starter and NO farm .

Lots of value on this team and if Rogers and the Beast just let AA build it up thru the system like he had been doing then we will be fine .

 

You can't really believe that this team was a true 74 win team last year.

 

As for the deadline, I still think we're in this mess waist deep and there's no looking back until guys are retiring or contracts are up.

[GD]

I said such lengths, not great lengths. How dare you twist my words?

 

And hurry the f*** up with that data already. If I wasn't stoned I would have done it myself. I wish to quantify to the nth degree the relative values of our trade apocalypse candidates.

 

You underestimated my laziness. Find me a good info source for our contracts.

[jaysblue]

A lot of stuff needs to break right if this Jays team wants to contend. Basically a healthy Morrow who makes 30 starts would be huge; Lawrie staying healthy and having a breakout year; Rasmus building off his strong 2013; Dickey pitching like he did in the second half; someone like Stroman or Hutch step up during the season; Reyes stays healthy and plays 150 games; Melky plays like he did in 2012, and the list goes on. A lot to ask for, so I'm not getting my hopes up.

[jaysblue]

You can't really believe that this team was a true 74 win team last year.

 

As for the deadline, I still think we're in this mess waist deep and there's no looking back until guys are retiring or contracts are up.

 

I think everyone on this board expected this team to win between 85-90 games. Its unfortunate how things played out; but if lets says Josh Johnson stayed healthy and pitched like his former self; Reyes didn't miss all that time; Melky played like he did in 2012; Dickey pitched like his second half; Bonafacio was at least half decent; Morrow was healthy and realized his potential - likely looking at a differ scenario. Still I'm not a fan of what this team has done since its backfired huge, though a lot of bad luck happened in 2013.

[AdamGreenwood]

Sorry, to burst people's bubble, but this is great news.

 

The last thing I want to see is the Jays trading away the last remnants of their farm to increase their chance of making the playoffs by 3%.

The team was atrocious last year, and unless a whole lot of guys on the rotation turn things around, it's going to be the same thing. There's no one player that's going to magically turn this club into a post-season behemoth. Let's at least save something for the next GM to work with.

 

The only thing I would have preferred to see would have been a firesale. I would have liked us to dump these absurd negative-value contracts for nothing, or perhaps some mid-range talent so that AA could save face with people that know nothing about baseball.

 

AA let it ride last season, gambling the farm away in order to take a run at things, and it failed miserably. He shouldn't get a chance to repeat the same thing this year, and dig his successor an even bigger hole when he/she takes over.

[Howard Roark]

You underestimated my laziness. Find me a good info source for our contracts.

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/toronto-blue-jays/

[Howard Roark]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

lol this gives you a baseline to run projections on to account for decline at least. Touch to find projections for all a team's current roster for the remainder of their respective contracts.

[LunchBox]

dig his successor an even bigger hole when he/she takes over.

 

Are you anticipating a female GM for any club in the near future? I can't shake the mental image of the 'stache brothers Coletti and Melvin completely disregarding baseball and chasing her around the winter meetings

[Howard Roark]

◾Opening Day payrolls

(Major League contracts plus pro-rated signing bonuses):

◾2013: $119,277,800

◾2012: $ 83,739,200

◾2011: $ 70,567,800

◾2010: $ 78,689,357

◾2009: $ 80,538,300

◾2008: $ 97,973,900

◾2007: $ 81,942,800

◾2006: $ 71,915,000

◾2005: $ 45,719,500

◾2004: $ 50,017,000

◾2003: $ 51,269,000

◾2002: $ 76,864,333

◾2001: $ 76,896,000

◾2000: $ 46,363,332

 

Not too shabby. We only paid about 36M for 1 added win from the year before. Paul Beeston, you can retire with honour, Sir.

[GD]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

lol this gives you a baseline to run projections on to account for decline at least. Touch to find projections for all a team's current roster for the remainder of their respective contracts.

 

Oh god I'm not doing the remainder of everyone's contracts lol. You can do that yourself with 5% increases in the cost per win and +0.5/-0.5 progression/decline numbers. and looking up the figures.

 

Here's what I did. Feel free to edit (tell me if you can't see it or something). I'll work on it more when I'm up to it. I just used first year steamer projections. I'll keep editing.

 

https://skydrive.live.com/edit.aspx?cid=BBD303AC2F6B49CE&resid=BBD303AC2F6B49CE%21266&app=Excel&wdo=1

[jaysblue]

OT question: in a 30-team dynasty league with salary cap, would you trade Jonothan Niese ($7.75 M until 2017) and Alexi Ogando (ARB 2017) for Billy Butler ($10.75 M? for 2014 and 15)? Thanks.

[NorthOf49]

OT question: in a 30-team dynasty league with salary cap, would you trade Jonothan Niese ($7.75 M until 2017) and Alexi Ogando (ARB 2017) for Billy Butler ($10.75 M? for 2014 and 15)? Thanks.

No. Niese's contract is way too good. I'd take him over Butler straight-up.

[Abomination]

OT question: in a 30-team dynasty league with salary cap, would you trade Jonothan Niese ($7.75 M until 2017) and Alexi Ogando (ARB 2017) for Billy Butler ($10.75 M? for 2014 and 15)? Thanks.

 

Does it follow real life salary?

[Howard Roark]

Oh god I'm not doing the remainder of everyone's contracts lol. You can do that yourself with 5% increases in the cost per win and +0.5/-0.5 progression/decline numbers. and looking up the figures.

 

Here's what I did. Feel free to edit (tell me if you can't see it or something). I'll work on it more when I'm up to it. I just used first year steamer projections. I'll keep editing.

 

https://skydrive.live.com/edit.aspx?cid=BBD303AC2F6B49CE&resid=BBD303AC2F6B49CE%21266&app=Excel&wdo=1

 

I clicked the link but it had already been deleted from the sky. f*** it, you have homework and fapping to attend to. Zee shall do this.

[jaysblue]

Does it follow real life salary?

 

Yes it does.

[GD]

I clicked the link but it had already been deleted from the sky. f*** it, you have homework and fapping to attend to. Zee shall do this.

 

It's winter break, f*** homework.

 

Give me a second, I'm working on it. I'm just doing the back-of-a-napkin projections for three years out and leaving the salaries blank and for you to fill in.

[Howard Roark]

Oh god I'm not doing the remainder of everyone's contracts lol. You can do that yourself

 

Trying to find a chart of this but it appears that not even the internet can be bothered to work this s*** out. Anyone?

[Abomination]

Yes it does.

 

Then as much as I love Butler's bat (especially when his bad defense doesn't come into play), I don't think you can even think about that deal (unless you're the one getting Niese and Ogando of course)

[Howard Roark]

blue jays projections contracts value fWAR

 

Googling various iterations of this, coming up empty.

[Angrioter]

Fat greek, vete a la mierda!!!

 

http://onegif.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Auchhhh.gif

[Howard Roark]

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tlGuOwsSqqOBS4H6hAg-Q_Q&output=html

 

There, that's probably the clearest and most informative piece I found so far that lays out the money side of it.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

And that's the clearest one for the projection baselines.

[GD]

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tlGuOwsSqqOBS4H6hAg-Q_Q&output=html

 

There, that's probably the clearest and most informative piece I found so far that lays out the money side of it.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

And that's the clearest one for the projection baselines.

 

You want to manually input some of this? If you're going to input anything, only input them into the WAR/Salary columns. The surplus/value columns should remain as is.

 

https://skydrive.live.com/redir?resid=BBD303AC2F6B49CE%21266

[kcjaysfan]

Waste of good tax payer money. Probably latch on to some useless government contract

 

This kind of narrow-minded view on science used to upset me. Now I just realize that some people are ignorant, and nothing will change that. If you can't fathom the benefit of scientific research to the betterment of humanity, I pity you.

 

 

Try being a finance manager

 

Are you suggesting this would be a difficult job, or that spending your life making a few rich people a little bit more money is somehow a worthwhile pursuit?

 

 

I work 12 hours a day make 6 figures

 

I think you attach a bit too much importance to the accumulation of wealth.