Take this for what it's worth

[TwistedLogic]

Why would we want Butler?

 

Because he's an excellent, awesome player. We need Butler. He's probably the most sure thing you could posibly attain.

 

Let's trade away Rasmus and Bautista for prospects+Butler. That way we can guarantee ourselves a World Series. Hell, just let Butler bat all nine-times through the order, the rest of the team can just ride on the coattails of his .124 ISO and .116 wRC+ from 2013.

 

No baseball-expert with half a brain and one-nut would recommend dumping two of your three best players for a return that ultimately targets Billy "Country Breakfast" Butler in a year you're looking to compete, which is what makes it SUCH a great move. NOBODY would see it coming. We'll catch the MLB by both storm and surprise.

 

We need Butler.

[Holden Caulfield]

Hey, I know it sounds like normal troll BS but I guess you're just going to have to take my word for it. My friend isn't the type to make up stories. I'm unaware of the context or location of this "board".

 

edit: direct to Hurl

[GD]

Hey, I know it sounds like normal troll BS but I guess you're just going to have to take my word for it. My friend isn't the type to make up stories. I'm unaware of the context or location of this "board".

 

edit: direct to Hurl

 

Sounds pretty reasonable to me tbh.

[G-Snarls]

Sure, no reason not to believe it. GM's get caught up on certain players they want all the time. Word gets around.

[John_Havok]

Because he's an excellent, awesome player. We need Butler. He's probably the most sure thing you could posibly attain.

 

Let's trade away Rasmus and Bautista for prospects+Butler. That way we can guarantee ourselves a World Series. Hell, just let Butler bat all nine-times through the order, the rest of the team can just ride on the coattails of his .124 ISO and .116 wRC+ from 2013.

 

No baseball-expert with half a brain and one-nut would recommend dumping two of your three best players for a return that ultimately targets Billy "Country Breakfast" Butler in a year you're looking to compete, which is what makes it SUCH a great move. NOBODY would see it coming. We'll catch the MLB by both storm and surprise.

 

We need Butler.

 

He'd be a much better option than Lind. If AA could trade for butler and ditch Lind, the Jays would be much better off.

[TwistedLogic]

No, we wouldn't be, or we wouldn't be trying to trade him now. You think that .370 BABIP is sustainable? He's a sell-high candidate. You don't buy those, generally. I doubt many people here would be interested in him.

 

http://gyazo.com/f5133318cf28da3a4e3b527f6fb959e0.png

 

http://gyazo.com/7cf1ed676eed13fef4aac7216dc55725.png

 

Totally looks like a guy who's never succeeded off a high BABIP before, and a guy without the ability and potential to do so again.

[TheHurl]

Hey, I know it sounds like normal troll BS but I guess you're just going to have to take my word for it. My friend isn't the type to make up stories. I'm unaware of the context or location of this "board".

 

edit: direct to Hurl

 

It was a comment about Moore not questioning the validity. I have heard stories about the Jays and antiquated systems on draft day as well as their "player cards".

[TwistedLogic]

He'd be a much better option than Lind. If AA could trade for butler and ditch Lind, the Jays would be much better off.

 

You're right. Even though Lind provided more value and was better than Butler in almost every way imaginable last year, switching out Lind for Butler would mean that we also get to ditch redneck Cletus off our roster, since that is the proposed payment for Butler.

[TwistedLogic]

Hey, I know it sounds like normal troll BS but I guess you're just going to have to take my word for it. My friend isn't the type to make up stories. I'm unaware of the context or location of this "board".

 

edit: direct to Hurl

 

It was a comment about Moore not questioning the validity. I have heard stories about the Jays and antiquated systems on draft day as well as their "player cards".

 

Jays have a board like this too, and AA has a small card with every team/players interested for winter meetings

 

Yeah most teams have settings like this where they track player moves and brainstorm about ideas. Almost every available player, and most that aren't available, are usually on these boards. The Royals have Rasmus on their list of wants the same way the Jays have Hill, Kemp and Price on their list of wants. It doesn't necessarily mean anything, let alone foreshadow an incoming move.

[Abomination]

You're right. Even though Lind provided more value and was better than Butler in almost every way imaginable last year, switching out Lind for Butler would mean that we also get to ditch redneck Cletus off our roster, since that is the proposed payment for Butler.

 

I would take Butler over Lind in a heartbeat, especially if he never sees the field. And this comes from someone who likes Lind.

[TwistedLogic]

I would take Butler over Lind in a heartbeat, especially if he never sees the field. And this comes from someone who likes Lind.

 

You would trade the idiotic price it would cost to bring in Butler for the upgrade (of -0.4 WAR in 2013) he'd provide over Lind? Kudos, I wouldn't.

 

Hill as in Aaron Hill?

 

Yes as in Aaron Hill. Anthopoulos said his war room had every single player's name in it. I'm sure if it was possible, Hill is one of the ones he'd actually like to acquire (re-acquire?) given our current situation at 2B (which by the way was worse than catching last year, fyi).

[GD]

Totally looks like a guy who's never succeeded off a high BABIP before, and a guy without the ability and potential to do so again.

 

You believe in Colby's .350 BABIP as a true talent level?

[John_Havok]

You're right. Even though Lind provided more value and was better than Butler in almost every way imaginable last year, switching out Lind for Butler would mean that we also get to ditch redneck Cletus off our roster, since that is the proposed payment for Butler.

 

Comparing players over 1 season is a fools errand. Career - wButler's platoon splits are nothing to worry about, Lind is a pure platoon bat, but admittedly better against RHP. Butler strikes out less, and walks more, has similar but slightly less power, they're a wash defensively since both are pretty bad, but since both would be DH the vast majority of the time, that's really not a concern.

 

Overall Butler is far more consistant, and the contracts are similar. Plus since you could DH Butler every day and stick at 1b to give Edwin a day off or two, you wouldn't have to worry about finding a lefty killer platoon bat which would allow for additional flexibility on the bench.

 

If you can find Lind a legit lefty masher with real defensive usefullness, then yeah that's fine. But if you just compare 1 player to the other Butler is the better option all day, every day

[Abomination]

You would trade the idiotic price it would cost to bring in Butler for the upgrade (of -0.4 WAR in 2013) he'd provide over Lind? Kudos, I wouldn't.

 

I didn't say that, you said that Lind was better than Butler in almost every way last year, which is what I was responding to. I would easily take Butler over Lind, but I wouldn't give up a haul to do so.

[John_Havok]

You're right. Even though Lind provided more value and was better than Butler in almost every way imaginable last year, switching out Lind for Butler would mean that we also get to ditch redneck Cletus off our roster, since that is the proposed payment for Butler.

 

And the only person who suggested Rasmus and butler in a trade is clearly as sharp as a spoon. You've built and torn down so many strawmen in this thread and attributing 1 person's ramblings as a majority opinion. It's laughable.

 

Butler vs Lind is not a true comparison. You'd have to compare Butler + the bench player he opens up to Lind and the other half of the Lind platoon.

 

And there no way in Hell I'd trade Rasmus for butler, that's just stupid.

[TwistedLogic]

You believe in Colby's .350 BABIP as a true talent level?

 

I never said that. It's the fact that every team will ask that same question to the Jays to undermine his trade-value. Nobody is going to offer a package worth his near-5 WAR season.

 

I don't believe Colby has the true ability to maintain a .350 BABIP because I have no way to know that. But I also know that in the seasons preceding Bautista and Encarnacion's extensions, there were just as many doubts, if not more.

 

What I know is that Colby had elite batted-ball distance last year, one of the best in the Major Leagues (as evidenced by the chart I posted, which can be found here.

I know that he has a legit power tool that is helping him deal with his inexplicable K-rate. I know that he's a good defender, one of the tools that declines the slowest. I know that despite missing nearly 50 games last year, he was the 6th most valuable centerfielder. I know that I'd rather have him in CF over Goseavarria.

 

And then there's this:

 

http://gamereax.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/rasmusswing.gif

 

If I'm paying to see baseball, that's one of the things I'm paying for.

[TwistedLogic]

I didn't say that, you said that Lind was better than Butler in almost every way last year, which is what I was responding to. I would easily take Butler over Lind, but I wouldn't give up a haul to do so.

 

I did say that Lind was better than Butler in almost every way, because he was. That isn't an opinion. It's a fact. You know, with numbers and stuff?

 

Lind had the better WAR, wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS and OPS+, while having the same batting average and BABIP. He was even marginally better on both the field and on the basepaths.

 

Whether you think one or the other will be more valuable in 2014 is a different story; that can be debated through the use of opinions, projections and all that other meaningless crap.

 

What can't be debated is that Lind was straight-up and simply better in 2013. He was the more valuable player, and the one that produced the better numbers. That is a fact.

[TwistedLogic]

And the only person who suggested Rasmus and butler in a trade is clearly as sharp as a spoon. You've built and torn down so many strawmen in this thread and attributing 1 person's ramblings as a majority opinion. It's laughable.

 

Butler vs Lind is not a true comparison. You'd have to compare Butler + the bench player he opens up to Lind and the other half of the Lind platoon.

 

And there no way in Hell I'd trade Rasmus for butler, that's just stupid.

 

I don't care if it looks as if I'm building straw men, based on what you see over most message boards online, more Jays fans want to trade Rasmus than the one's that want to keep him, and more fans want to sign Choo over the one's that don't. It's the same way that most people thought Bautista would never be worth his extension and that it was a stupid mistake not to sell high on him, and the same people that rallied for selling high on EE at the trade deadline.

 

Also, the majority of what I posted was not actually directed at people who want Butler for Rasmus, it was directed at the people who want to trade him for prospects. That was pretty clear.

[bronson44]

I love his swing so f***ing much it's unhealthy

[Abomination]

I did say that Lind was better than Butler in almost every way, because he was. That isn't an opinion. It's a fact. You know, with numbers and stuff?

 

Lind had the better WAR, wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS and OPS+, while having the same batting average and BABIP. He was even marginally better on both the field and on the basepaths.

 

Whether you think one or the other will be more valuable in 2014 is a different story; that can be debated through the use of pinions, projections and all that other meaningless crap. But Lind was better and more valuable in 2013. That is a fact.

 

Again, I didn't say that Butler had a better year last year, I said that I would take Butler over Lind in a heartbeat (which is what Havok said before you decided to get snarky).

[bronson44]

Lol I can't stop watching it. That follow through is a thing of beauty

[John_Havok]

I don't care if it looks as if I'm building straw men, based on what you see over most message boards online, more Jays fans want to trade Rasmus than the one's that want to keep him, and more fans want to sign Choo over the one's that don't. It's the same way that most people thought Bautista would never be worth his extension and that it was a stupid mistake not to sell high on him, and the same people that rallied for selling high on EE at the trade deadline.

 

Well obviously you can't sell high on everyone all the time, but you also have to be open to the idea of trading certain players at their peak if there's enough evidence to support that a player falling off a cliff offensively is probable.

 

Right now, the Jays have Edwin at his peak, Jose having already peaked and starting the downward trend, but still very usefull. Rasmus is very likely at his peak unless something drastically changes with his K rate. I don't think it's a stretch to have the opinion that a guy with a 30% k rate might not be a 5 WAR CF consistently going into his late 20's and into his 30's. So when he's at that peak, entering his last year of control and IF you can make a deal that allows your team to gain valuable pieces in return and you can find a suitable replacement for him, then you still have to be open to it.

 

You can't keep all your players all the time any more than you can trade them all at their peak, all the time.

[TwistedLogic]

Well obviously you can't sell high on everyone all the time, but you also have to be open to the idea of trading certain players at their peak if there's enough evidence to support that a player falling off a cliff offensively is probable.

 

Right now, the Jays have Edwin at his peak, Jose having already peaked and starting the downward trend, but still very usefull. Rasmus is very likely at his peak unless something drastically changes with his K rate. I don't think it's a stretch to have the opinion that a guy with a 30% k rate might not be a 5 WAR CF consistently going into his late 20's and into his 30's. So when he's at that peak, entering his last year of control and IF you can make a deal that allows your team to gain valuable pieces in return and you can find a suitable replacement for him, then you still have to be open to it.

 

You can't keep all your players all the time any more than you can trade them all at their peak, all the time.

 

Woah there Aunt Sally. You mentioned straw men?

 

This discussion only seems to be taking turns and ending up in places that I never went, and I'm starting to get bored of it. I never implied that you should keep all your players or sell all your players. I also never implied that Rasmus is infallible and can't fall off a cliff, and that you can sell high on everyone all the time.

 

I never said I wasn't "open to the idea of trading him" in the event that you "gain valuable pieces in return and you can find a suitable replacement for him". Except that those terms sing true for every single player in the majors, with "suitable" being the objective term there. If I can get valuable assets for a player and find a suitable replacement for him, why would I say no to that in any case, unless it's a guy like Jeter or Trout, who have value outside of the actual playing field?

 

Despite the fact that I never said any of the things you seem to be responding to, now that you have said them, I would like to challenge a few of those points.

 

First off, you say that Edwin, Jose and Rasmus are all at or around their peaks, yes? So a 27 year old toolsy center fielder, and two power hitters, one being a 30 year old tank 1B and the other being a 33 year old athletic/injury prone RF are at the same point in their careers?

 

You also say that there is a lot of evidence to support that a player falling off a cliff offensively is probable. I agree. But is it still as probable when the player in question is, again, 27 years old?

 

Nobody is saying he's a 5 win player; I'm not even saying he's a 4 win player. But 3 wins? For a guy that has averaged 2.6 wins in a season thus far in his career and is entering his prime with two important above-average tools on his belt (defense and power)? People here are looking to trade him for prospects, players that you can only wish some day become worth 3 wins. That is a legitimate expectation for Rasmus going forward. He's gotten better every season that he's worn this jersey.

 

If you're still uncertain as to what my argument is, here's a TLDR:

 

I'm not opposed to trading Rasmus, the same way I'm not opposed to trading Bautista or anyone else. But I believe that the Blue Jays should look at him as a potential All-Star. Nobody is going to pay them that price, which is why it only makes sense to keep him, and (in my opinion) extend him. The upside far outweighs the risk. Can it fail? Yes, it did for Romero. But Romero is far from an anchor or an albatross. Rasmus will always be a player that, even if his contract goes south, you could eat half of his salary and sell him to a team that believes they can fix him.

 

I also believe that "selling high" on a player like Rasmus is a huge exaggeration. Players of this type and track record always have several question marks and you're never going to get full value on a guy like that. You always have the potential to get more out of him yourself.

[admin]

Holy s*** I had to double verify Rasmus had 4.8WAR last year. Almost makes me wish I watched more games last year!

If I was Rasmus I'd be sending Mottola a nice check for Christmas, hoping he can secretly still work with him!

[Fearthedoc]

In other news, I have a friend who once dated the Tampa Bay Rays mascot's sister and he received a hot tip that the Rays might be looking to shop David Price this offseason.

[admin]

This guy is a moderator on another pretty big forum, so more than likely isn't just trolling. Funny they would delete such a comment if posted there though!

[Fearthedoc]

This guy is a moderator on another pretty big forum, so more than likely isn't just trolling. Funny they would delete such a comment if posted there though!

 

True. 9/10 times when a guy with so few posts makes a thread like this, it's complete ********. However, every once in a while, that guy turns out to be a jedi prophet who foresees a huge blockbuster.

[TwistedLogic]

True. 9/10 times when a guy with so few posts makes a thread like this, it's complete ********. However, every once in a while, that guy turns out to be a jedi prophet who foresees a huge blockbuster.

 

All he said was that Rasmus was on the Royals board... That doesn't mean anything; they could (and probably do) have more than a hundred names on the same list.

[Angrioter]

Does he use the same name there?

 

Longo .305 Babip (.238 ISO) + 11% BB + 21% K = 135 wRC+

Pence .318 Babip (.191 ISO) + 7.4% BB + 18% K = 120 wRC+

Rasmus .299 Babip (.188 ISO) +9% BB + 24% K = 103 wRC+

 

The kid hit the ball hard. He's not Bautista or Edwin but he can have success with that kind of approach.

[G-Snarls]

All he said was that Rasmus was on the Royals board... That doesn't mean anything; they could (and probably do) have more than a hundred names on the same list.

 

Right. And even if they only have 3 names it doesn't mean he'll be able to come up with a package AA will accept.