Breaking Blue: Toronto Blue Jays Blog is live

[Frag]

Awesome work! I was going to do this for batters (BB%) when I had the chance. The HR/FB correlation is pretty interesting. It doesn't work out that way for pitchers.

 

What I have found with the HR/FB for batters though, is that because of the type of hitters, K% correlates well with HR/FB. This just has to do with the hitters that hit home runs. It doesn't mean that because you strike out a lot, you will hit home runs. It's more likely due to the fact that if you can stick in the majors and K a lot, you probably hit home runs.

 

That's true. Could explain why you don't see much with pitchers.

[KingKat]

Has anyone else been accidentally giving a lot of hits to Breaking Blue dot com. I get that wrong pretty much every time I type the URL.

[NorthOf49]

JFaS, do you have run values for non-BIP pitch outcomes (swinging strike, called strike, ball, foul)? I'm doing some research and could really use those.

[NorthOf49]

You can calculate those yourself, but I do have the values for swinging strike, zone looking, ozone looking and foul on my laptop.

That's what I need (o-looking is ball, z-looking is called strike)!

 

If it's not too much of a hassle, could you send them to me or post them?

[NorthOf49]

Olooking is not a ball! Zlooking is not a strike! And yes I can post when I'm home.

Ah I see what you mean. They're independent of what the umpire calls. That data is even more useful for what I'm doing!

 

Thanks.

[KingKat]

Not going to bookmark at work.

Sounds like you need to step up your bookmark game.

[admin]

Looking for writers again. I know I talked to a couple guys previously via PM. Those guys, please go read the post on breakingblue.ca and contact me through there.

http://www.breakingblue.ca

[NorthOf49]

Aren't Hamels' 3.3 wins in 2014 worth more to the Blue Jays than $7.5M per since they'd be higher than average on the win curve, and they have a self-imposed window of 2014-15?

 

The analysis is still relevant, but I feel like when considering specific situations more has to be taken into account.

Edited December 10, 2013 by NorthOf49

[Laika]

Aren't Hamels' 3.3 wins in 2014 worth more to the Blue Jays than $7.5M per since they'd be higher than average on the win curve, and have a self-imposed window of 2014-15?

 

The analysis is still relevant, but I feel like when considering specific situations more has to be taken into account.

 

Yes. Probably a lot more. Hard to quantify specifically but it could be worth mentioning. Then again, you'd have to mention it every time you talked about the Jays hypothetically adding any wins, which might become monotonous.

[John_Havok]

Looking for writers again. I know I talked to a couple guys previously via PM. Those guys, please go read the post on breakingblue.ca and contact me through there.

http://www.breakingblue.ca

 

Sent you a sample through the website.

[connorp]

Just realized FanGraphs is currently updating Steamer like I am lol. Guess all I need to do is convert to a record and summarize moves and changes for my rankings. They have slightly changed playing time projections though, so it looks a tad different.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

 

Team Bat Pit WAR

Red Sox 26.7 21.9 48.7

Tigers 24.0 21.2 45.2

Cardinals 27.4 14.0 41.5

Athletics 27.3 13.9 41.2

Angels 31.9 9.3 41.2

Rangers 21.0 20.0 41.0

Royals 24.6 16.3 40.9

Rays 26.7 13.9 40.6

Blue Jays 25.2 14.9 40.0

Indians 26.3 13.2 39.5

Pirates 26.1 12.9 39.0

Dodgers 23.5 15.3 38.8

Giants 29.4 9.3 38.7

Diamondbacks 25.2 12.8 38.0

Rockies 21.3 16.4 37.7

Yankees 18.9 17.8 36.7

Nationals 20.2 15.7 36.0

Braves 24.1 11.8 35.9

Mariners 19.1 16.4 35.5

Orioles 22.3 13.1 35.4

Reds 18.6 13.0 31.6

Padres 20.6 11.0 31.5

Mets 20.8 8.8 29.7

Twins 16.8 12.2 29.0

Astros 19.8 8.6 28.4

Cubs 16.1 11.9 28.0

Brewers 18.8 9.0 27.7

White Sox 12.9 14.2 27.1

Phillies 15.4 10.4 25.9

Marlins 10.6 10.6 21.2

 

Jays 9th at 85-77 (just did a quick calc)

 

WAR values are about 2.4 Wins or 22 runs optimistic for each team currently.

 

Suprised to see SF 2nd in mlb in batting WAR.. going to assume it's due to a healthy UZR dose.. but you'd think in a pitchers park they would be suppressed.. or maybe UZR adjusts for park factors more than likely

 

edit: Actually I guess if its a pitchers park.. more balls will be outs.. I guess I was thinking of bigger OF means more balls that drop

[connorp]

Helps having an elite C. They are also solid at every other position.

 

Still suprising to see them at 29.4 and NYY are 18 something..

[Laika]

Giants: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=30

 

Yankees: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=9

 

The Yankees infield is not good. Jeter, ARod, and Tex all old and overrated now. Johnson is what they've got at second.

 

Wow, what is Steamer thinking in regards to Gardner's D? His UZR/150 career in the OF is +23.

 

Is that a f***ing glitch? lol

[connorp]

They have Soriano being replacement level. I think they were conservative on Gardner and Beltran too

[Laika]

They have Soriano being replacement level. I think they were conservative on Gardner and Beltran too

 

One one hand, these specific quips might have merit. On the other hand, the number machine is far better at interpreting most of the relevant numbers than any of us.

[connorp]

One one hand, these specific quips might have merit. On the other hand, the number machine is far better at interpreting most of the relevant numbers than any of us.

 

Yeah, I respect there's data behind the numbers and it's better than the average Joe's projection.. But obviously they can be wrong quite a bit..so it's ok to judge what's being tossed out as long as you're being open-minded.

 

For instance, I don't like how pitchers get painted with a broad brush. Things like the aging curve and velocity dips will tip the scales downward but I think the good pitchers with very good secondary stuff shouldn't be lumped in with the hundreds of pitchers that don't in making a projection.

[Abomination]

For instance, I don't like how pitchers get painted with a broad brush. Things like the aging curve and velocity dips will tip the scales downward but I think the good pitchers with very good secondary stuff shouldn't be lumped in with the hundreds of pitchers that don't in making a projection.

 

This is my feeling as well. I think this is one of the next big areas we need to see a study in (unless there is one I'm not aware of). I don't care so much about aging curves for lesser free agents as they probably aren't getting the long term deals where it matters (at least to a significant extent) anyhow.

[ace3113]

Rule 5 Draft preview: Blue Jays

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2013/12/11/rule-5-draft-preview-blue-jays/

[Frag]

Fangraphs new cool feature that allows you to run a correlation among all pitching stats, including TIPS!

[Angrioter]

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2013/12/14/offseason-power-rankings-dec-14/

 

Updated rankings.

 

You should wait until Floyd sign with us.

[KingKat]

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/12/13/5204444/astros-pitchers-in-small-samples

 

Just saw this now, TIPS is still making it's rounds.

 

There's some interesting discussion in the comments as well.

[Abomination]

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2013/12/22/rangers-board-the-choo-choo-train/

 

Sums it up pretty nicely, although I think Choo will be playable in the outfield longer term than 2 years (unless they decided for some reason to plop him in center).

[kcjaysfan]

It's me.

 

Your name is an anagram for "done in drag."

[KingKat]

Nice.

I thought the cat in my photo gave it away.

[Laika]

Who feels like reading 5500 words about another team?

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2013/12/29/a-premortem-for-kevin-towers/

[Laika]

I got through half.. pretty interesting and well written

 

It's definitely far too long, but there was just so much to say...

[Laika]

P.S. I guess you're hoping for a Nucks win and a Wild loss tonight....

 

It would certainly be nice to get a cool $300 so soon after Christmas. Eddie Lack FTW? Josh Harding can have an MS flare-up and I'd be OK with it.

[connorp]

I kind of like Delgado as very solid 3-4 guy with definite 3 guy potential in next year or two. I streamed him a lot during season in fantasy and so watched him pitch more than few times. Maybe im partial to guys with good control. Steamer has him being an average SP next year but they also projected his bb rate to double

[KingKat]

It's definitely far too long, but there was just so much to say...

 

The length is part of the charm. If you're going to take down a dumb ass like Towers might as well be as intelectual as possible. The length and the pseudo-scientific tone add a whole extra layer that makes the piece even better.

[Frag]

Hey Chris, Tom thinks you have a chance to win best research award by SABR.

 

Wish you luck!